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The DW.com's Christoph Strack says its a good sign that chancellor Merkel of Germany is opening up and showing emotions. She was decisive in the way she presented herself and what she has learned in the past 12 months since the refugee crisis erupted in summer 2015. She expressed her sense that she had "an absolutely sure feeling" that Germany will emerge out of all this better "than when we went into it." The remarks at Konrad-Adenauer-Haus for thirteen minutes were unusual and open in sharing how she felt. She said she is "fully committed" to making sure that the situation of 2015 never happens again. Don't count Merkel out, says Strack, she is down but not out, because she is going through the weaknesses in her policy, weakness in communication, and reflecting on her mistakes. And she has shown defiance and resolve, as she prepares for 2017, and its for everything she believes in.

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Results in the Saarland election show the AfD party with only 6.2% of the vote. The CDU is well ahead of the Social Democrats. This result shows that the support for the AfD is strongest in the east. With the refugee crisis not as big an issue as it was in 2016, and the larger effort put forward in push back by CDU/CSU and SPD in the western part of Germany, the AfD sees its support declining from the levels it had in 2016.

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This report in DW.com says contrary to the stereotypes about rightwing AfD voters being less educated, low income, new studies show the AfD voters come from all levels of society. There is only one thing in common and that is they all think having so many refugees is bad for Germany. They don't want refugees to migrate to Germany. Recently the AfD has made gains in German elections with chancellor Merkel's policy leading to a large number of refugees entering Germany. Germany has seen a realignment in many ways. The Social Democrats have lost support as voters shifted to the Greens party which now has about 20% support among German voters, and the Free Democrats have come back to about 10% under Mr. Lindner. The AfD swing as the mood shifts away from Merkel's policies, is one of many trends in Germany. The Christian Democrats also have a new leader as the traditional parties go back to their roots following a period when Merkel's policies erased many of the differences between the traditional SPD and CDU during the period of coalition governments dominated by Merkel's Christian Democrats. The SPD suffered serious election losses as Merkel pursued centrist positions. ...

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Chancellor Merkel meets President Trump in a key summit in March 2017. The two leaders have different styles, one flamboyant the other reserved. Chancellor Merkel tells the German media "it is better to talk with each other than about each other." Trump called Merkel's refugee policy "catastrophic," Merkel has said that the Geneva convention requires countries to do this on humanitarian grounds. On trade German's Economy minister Brigitte Zypries says Germany would file a suit on any hike in import duties at the World Trade Organization, that WTO rules restrict import taxes to 2.5% on autos. Germany's BMW plant in the U.S. exports more autos than GM and Ford put together, and Merkel is likely to emphasize large German investment in the U.S.. The heads of BMW and Siemens and other industry executives are accompanying Merkel to the U.S. as trade will be a key topic.

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The 7.1 million Venezuelan refugees who have settled in other Latin American nations puts a great burden on the region and its resources. This NYT report shows how it is affecting Mexico today. Shown are migrants who are by the rail tracks trying to board a freight train north in Mexico. It is an endless dilemma for Americans, for Democrat states facing Republican opposition, and has been a problem for both Republican and Democratic administrations. How do you deport Venezuelans as US has no diplomatic relations with Venezuela? The Biden administration is pursuing legal immigration channels by taking in a specified number and cutting the dangerous migrant flow over the Mexican border, the only policy open to Republicans also in this situation. At some future date the Venezuelans absorbed into the US can fill worker shortages, in the present it is creating some chaos for many nations including Mexico and the US and other latin American nations, and neither party Democrat or Republican has easy answers. As the Democrats are deporting nearly as many as the Republicans. ...

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 Mayor Reiter of Munich, Christian Kern, head of Austrian railway OBB, say here that the actions of Viktor Orban of Hungary gave the German government very little time, only a few hours, to act. The first motivation was to act in a humanitarian way, which is what happened. The German government had asked Orban to register and handle immigrants in an orderly way. In the end with the failure of Orban to do this, the immigrants who would have come north anyway, streamed into Germany and Austria in buses and trains. Clearly Hungary and Germany could have handled this better. The German public provided support with a large number of volunteers helping. One German minister is cited here as saying that if Orban wanted to build a fence he should have done it in a quiet way, as there are fences between Bulgaria and Turkey, and Turkey and Greece and it has not bothered anyone.

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In this report WSJ looks at US Treasury Secretary's warning to China about its role in the free world and its position in the international trading system and the obligations to human values that come with it. Janet Yellen is so well known as head of the Federal Reserve and as US Treasury Secretary that it is easy to forget her experience at Yale studying under James Tobin who supported meeting social goals, whom she calls a life long mentor. Tobin set the foundations for economic policy in the Kennedy administration in the early post war period, after working in the Franklin Roosevelt administration during the war. Social goals, business paying its fair share of taxes, building infrastructure, were all a part of the FDR and Kennedy-Johnson administration.  It is also easy to forget that Yellen set the foundations for economic policy under Clinton and then under Obama administration the period when social goals were not met, infrastructure was neglected, globalization meant shipping jobs and factories overseas to China, and lack of financial oversight over banks that led to the 2009 financial crisis. The contradiction made Yellen realize only late during the Obama administration how much of a diversion she had taken from the social goals of the FDR-Truman-Kennedy post war period.  As one of the architects of the economic policy underpinning the emergence of China's role as the factory of the world, that destroyed many working class communities in the US, Yellen is in the economic role that Merkel shares in world of political economy with her integration of the German economy with that of China. Today as she calls for a retreat to the values shared by her mentor James T, Tobin and of FDR and Truman as they responded to the Berlin Crisis in the aftermath of 1945, and the Korean War with large scale invasion of South Korea and the kind of refugee crisis that we see today in Ukraine, there is much room for reflection. Reflection on what was lost in the intervening years of the Bush-Clinton and Obama years that led to the situation that the free world faces with totalitarianism today.   ...

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Germany is adjusting its requirements for residency permits and work permits for refugees. It will let asylum applicants take temporary jobs by 3 months after applying for asylum. Current law bans migrants from working through temp agencies for the first 4 years in Germany. The government will lower hurdles for job applicants who are refugees. Government policy of Angela Merkel's coaltion is- "people who have the right to protection and stay in Germany permanently should find employment rapidly and earn their living themselves." This is critical to the large effort to absorb about 1 million refugees in 2015, as it will meet the needs of companies and not cost the government additional outlays for social payments to refugees. The initial response from companies such as SAP, Thyssen Krupp, and smaller companies has been very positive, and shows why Germany is uniquely positioned of all EU countries to be able to take on this challenge on both humanitarian and mutually beneficial basis.

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This article in Zeit Online tries to provide the facts behind Merkel's decision made in a period of 24-48 hours to let refugees marching towards Austria from Keleti station in Budapest, Hungary, September 5, 2015, to enter Germany. Other reports pointed out that too little time was given to make the decision and that it was purely done on humanitarian terms. And made during that short window of time, in which a decision had to be made to turn away the refugees going on foot for hundreds of miles or to turn them away. Given Germany's earlier history the choice was a difficult one but erred on the side of being humanitarian. Though Merkel's selfie with a refugee at a hostel on Sept 10, would seem to suggest otherwise, Merkel has said her decision was made with so little time and little opportunity to understand all the ramifications of this. It was not an open invitation to refugees to come to Germany. 

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A journalist embedded with American forces in Anbar province in 2007, describes the situation in 2015 after the many sacrifices of Iraqis and American soldiers. He tells the story of one Iraqi police captain he calls Ismail, who helped the U.S. forces turn the tide in Anbar province, and now finds himself a refugee in Baghdad.

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Improvements in birth rate and more immigrants in Germany are making the demographic picture look better in Germany. About 13 million people are expected to reach retirement age in just a few years, according to Prof Enzo Weber, Institute of Employment Research. This means 13 million new pensioners. Birthrate today is about 1.4 children per woman. At this level of birthrate and even a low rate of immigration of 100,000 per year Germany's population of 83 million today would decline over time. Between 1990 and 2008 more people left Germany than came in with a net outflow. Some level of immigration would be the only way to keep the level of people in the workforce of 43 million today to become stable in the future. This would be needed to support the increasing number of pensioners. Yet the general aging of the population is expected to continue. And a high level of immigration in too short a time such as from the Syrian refugee crisis creates other tensions in the social fabric of society. Germany's very homogenous society faces a challenge that goes beyond the politics of the refugee crisis of today. Too many immigrants in too short a time is not the solution, immigration has become too politicized in today's context, good and early integration of immigrants through language and culture training needs to be established. Prof. Weber points out that the influx of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe has helped the labor market, and there is no reason that the labor market could not dry up with the number of people retiring soon. Tackling that will involve making family and career life choices easier and enabling flexible work-life choices, increasing retirement age, and some level of healthy immigration. A demographic summit will be held on March 16th in Berlin to look at the problem. ...

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This picture essay in The Guardian shows the 700,000 additional people displaced inside Afghanistan in 2021 in addition to the 2.9 million displaced people by 2020. The British stayed out of Afghanistan except for brief forays from concern about Russia entering close to British India. Not much happened till Zahir Shah, the King of Afghanistan was seen as not doing much for a famine that struck the country in 1972. Drought struck much of the country in 1972 leading to the deaths of over 100,000 people from starvation. The King had ruled since 1933. And for a brief period his cousin and brother-in-law Daud Khan had actually run the administration between 1953 to 1963, before being dismissed with a new constitution adopted not allowing the royal family to rule the country without consulting parliament. The poor handling of famine relief led to the fall of the government appointed by King Zahir Shah in 1972. In 1973 Daud Khan violates this constitution and assumes control of the country. British India was in 1972 the India of the Nehru period, with his daughter Indira Gandhi the democratically elected prime minister. India fought a brief war with Pakistan in 1971 that set up the new nation of Bangladesh from territory of East Bengal. India preoccupied with Bangladesh refugees did not do what the British had done to keep outside powers out of Afghanistan and maintain a stable monarchy. Daoud Khan's repression of Communist party leaders led to Communist party military factions in the army taking over the country in 1978. The Afghan military led by officers in the army's Communist factions had little support in the traditional Islamic nature of the countryside for their land reforms. Leading to a rebellion and entry of Soviet troops under a friendship treaty signed in 1978 with Soviets under Leonid Brezhnev. It is this disrupting of the stability of the Afghan monarchy or the entry of Soviets or Americans or any other foreign influence that was carefully prevented in British India by Britain's India policy, which resulted in a period of peace and stability in that region. The events of 1974 with the fall of the monarchy, and the entry of Russia in 1978 broke two of the main rules the British had observed from 1750- a stable monarchy and no outside influence in Afghanistan. A policy the British also followed for Tibet. When China entered Tibet in 1950 Nehru was too preoccupied with the millions of refugees from Pakistan and failed to prepare in the years 1947-50 for following British policy on Tibet by preparing or anticipating the entry of foreign powers. The entry of China into Tibet in October 1950 led to the Sino India border war of 1962, and led to the current situation of India facing a Chinese army all along the border of Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Nepal and all the way in the Himalayas to Kashmir. The result has been billions of dollars spent by the US every week starving domestic priorities, as president Biden observed this week, and a burial place for empires. Ten years for Russia, and twenty for the US with the same result. It has left the whole region poorer and in humanitarian crisis for 50 years, and created crises for Russia, Pakistan, India, and the US. ...

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Friedman has second thoughts on the effectiveness of President Obama's foreign policy and turning away from the Middle East. He says this risks hurting the European Union with the flow of refugees, and wonders how the U.S. would react if there was an attack in the U.S. like the one in Brussels in March 2016 using suicide bombers.

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President Trump outlines a plan for Afghanistan that increases the U.S. troop presence from about 8500 with an addition of 4000 more troops and advisors, in addition to a counter terrorism force. To war weary public in the U.S. he says: "I share your frustration over a foreign policy that has spent too much time, energy, money- and most importantly, lives- trying to rebuild countries in our own image instead of pursuing our security interests above all other considerations." About his criticism of the war when president Obama was in office as a huge costly waste of resources Trump said: My original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like to follow my instincts... I heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk at the Oval Office." After resisting the advice of his own advisers Trump decided to fire Bannon who had supported use of American private security contractors for the war in Afghanistan, and used parts of the media to question national security advisor McMaster's views on this. Gen. Mattis, completed a strategy review that showed the mistake of creating a vacuum would repeat the situation of Iraq where president Obama withdrew forces in 2011, leading to a sequence of negative events- with Russia, Iran and Islamic State moving into the vacuum, making American intervention in the war necessary, increase in terrorist incidents worldwide, and a flood of refugees into Europe. Ironically clearing the path for an outsider's bid for the White House, with Brexit in which refugee fears and uncontrolled immigration played a part, and the news of terrorism and the war in Syria-Iraq creating a sense of insecurity. A key difference in the Trump approach with Obama's approach is that "conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables will guide our actions from now on," in line with Trump's criticism of Obama's approach. The military in the U.S. has long maintained that the best approach would have been to insist on U.S. presence in negotiations with the Iraqi government under the sectarian prime minister Nouri Maliki. Gen. Mattis was head of Central Command under the Obama administration and must have pushed the view of the military to president Obama to no avail. Failure to do so led to the growth of Shiite militias and the alienation of Sunnis in Mosul, leading to the fall of Mosul to Islamic State thus creating the current crisis. Gen. Mattis and Lt. Gen McMaster are intimately aware of the problem and must have convinced Trump that this is what really happened, that a repeat would waste the sacrifices of American soldiers in the twin wars. Trump gave this as his reason when he said in his televised speech to the nation- essentially a criticism of Bush that he expanded the conflict too quickly, and Obama exiting too quickly to create a void. Trump call his policy "principled realism."  The roots of the crisis are in the India-Pakistan conflict. Like the conflict in South East Asia the conflict in South Asia extending from Iran to India and Pakistan, may take a generation to overcome. A rapprochement between India and Pakistan, beginning with trade and economic relations, is not only in America's interest, it also provides the basis for a realistic American withdrawal. ...

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Brinkmauer and Pfister of the German magazine Der Spiegel interview German Chancellor Angela Merkel in September 2017. The interview covers a range of topics from whether Merkel is addicted to power, why she chose to run for a fourth term, revolving door for CDU politicians as lobbyists for the automobile industry, the AfD right wing party, the refugee crisis and the CDU's historic policy of controlled immigration, and whether democracy is losing strength.  In characteristic Merkel fashion the chancellor takes up the idea of her addiction to power by saying she is careful not to let this happen to her by reading critical articles in the press and having her staff bring critical reports. Her discussion with her constituents in her electoral district are also frank and open, more so in 2017. About the idea that Helmut Kohl's fourth term as chancellor being not good for Germany and for the CDU, Merkel responds that she has given it considerable thought. She found that she still has the intellectual curiosity to learn new things, understands that she has much to learn about how the country and the world is changing. This has been decisive in her decision to run.  Merkel believes that someone who has worked in politics should be able to work in private industry following historic practice in Germany. On the government links with the automobile industry Merkel says her approach has been to look at what was best for an industry employing 800,000 people in Germany, yet deplores the diesel emissions cheating at VW. Has democracy lost momentum after the U.S. elections and the refugee crisis? Merkel says democracy is still strong, and that she will do everything to strengthen democracy in Germany and other parts of the world.  Merkel's view is that it is important that there be counterweights in democratic systems. In this way democracy is strong in America, and also in Poland and Hungary. The chancellor cites high voter turnout of 82% in 1998, 79% in 2002, 78% in 2009. Since then she says in 2009 it dropped to 71% and 2013  72%, yet  expects that with the issues in this election people will come out to vote in larger numbers.  For many years Merkel is seen as co-opting the issues of the left parties and the SPD, being careful to move to the centre. Der Spiegel puts this idea forward to the chancellor by asking her if she is the best SPD chancellor Germany ever had.  In her matter of fact style Merkel responds that voters do not think of it this way, simply expect her to her job as best as she can possibly do it.       ...

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This piece in the Economist says the men involved in sexual harassment in Cologne identifed so far were Moroccans and Algerians, not Syrians. The police in Cologne are seen as failing to identify sexual attackers and apprehend them on the spot. Tensions will exist because of the different values in the Middle East, and as in America, the Economist says the refugees must be required to adopt the values and norms of the new country. Because most of the refugees are men, this could skew the men to women ratio in some places which welcome refugees, and for this reason the men should be allowed to bring their spouses. So far German chancellor Merkel has acted firmly, calling the sexual attacks "disgusting," passing laws that would make it possible to quickly deport those migrants and refugees who break the law in Germany. This is the right way to tackle the problem. In the long run the immigration will help countries such as Germany tackle the problem of aging of the labor force, yet in the short run stronger action is needed to prevent any abuses to the humanitarian welcome offered refugees. The problem of economically motivated migrants remains- Britain, Germany and France all agree that these migrants should go back to their home countries, as prime minister Cameron and chancellor Merkel have already affirmed....

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Opinion in the US that Sashkavili may have started the conflict by an attack on N. Ossetia, confirmed by the large number of refugees being assisted by the UN High Commission for Refugees who left N. Ossetia for Russia. And which would give some credence to Russia's view that it was a victime of an attack before its forceful response. And the failure of the Bush administration to properly guide policy actions in these areas near Russia.

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This article in The Telegraph shows the debate in the House of Commons on Syria and comments by various MP's. It also reveals the impasse on Syria with Boris Johnson of the Conservative Party using it to score points against Jeremy Corbyn of Labor Party by calling for demonstrations by peace groups at Russian embassies, and Corbyn's response to this saying all parties embassies including the U.S. should be included. By October 2016 with about 100,000 children and 275,000 civilians trapped inside the Aleppo region in northern Syria, and Russian bombings of Aleppo, the situation is dire. With U.S. president Obama's inaction on Syria, the refugee crisis in Europe from Syrian refugees exceeding 2 million in the Middle East, the situation in Syria is at the point where lacking an effective option to setup a no fly zone at this late stage the political parties in Britain and in the U.S. trade charges against each other. German chancellor Merkel and foreign minister Steinmier visit Ethiopia and Nigeria to stem the flow of refugees from economic crisis at the source with aid and support, as Germany works on its own efforts. France's Hollande tells Putin a visit to France would have only Syria as topic for discussions and calls for Syria to be brought up as war crimes. Even the Telegraph's title is misleading as the article covers the debate in the House on Commons on Syria, but the title appeals to Telegraph readers critical of Corbyn when the debate is about Syria and what action to take about the bombings.   ...

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Following the defeat of chancellor Merkel's CDU party in the 2016 Berlin state election, getting just 17.6% of the vote, chancellor Merkel looked reflective and a bit emotional about the result. She urged Germans to understand that this decision on refugees will benefit Germany in the long run. She said she would work to regain the people's trust. Looking back she said-"If I could, I would turn back time by many, many years to better prepare myself and the whole German government for the situation that reached us unprepared in late summer 2015." She says the decision was "absolutely right" to admit the refugees from war torn Syria, but accepted that "it led to a time when we did not have enough control over the situation." Both the CDU and the SPD, the main parties, lost about 6-7 percentage points each in votes cast. Gainers were the Free Democratic Party with 6.7% of the vote, who gained votes from the CDU. For the SPD votes were lost to the Greens and the left party Die Linke each party winning over 15% of votes.  Both the CDU and the SPD had candidates who did not attract voter interest. A popular former Mayor of Berlin from the SPD did not run in this election. The anti-immigrant AfD party gained  about 14% of votes.  ...

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The Soviet threat actually receded after 1964 when Brezhnev became head of Soviet Union till 1982. During that period in the 1960's till today the face of NATO as today was from a series of heads of governments of Dutch Stikker in mid 1960's or other small European states such as Norway Stoltenberg and Rutte Netherlands again in 2025. It could be said that none of these leaders  of small EU countries represented US interests- or even European interests- a point the DJT administration is trying to make. First NATO head UK's Hastings Ismay's NATO for "keeping the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down" is more British Imperial policy of 1904 -1940's as the Indian Viceroy's Assistant, not US policy or in America's or even Europe's interest in 2025. It hurt the US in Venezuela as Russia propped up a regime which led to millions of refugees entering the US illegally. And it hurt Europe as Russia propped up the Syrian regime with millions of refugees entering Germany and destabilizing its political structure. Going back if a new defense institution was set up to replace NATO by the Europeans in 1970's this would have been the right step which would have not led to Russia propping up regimes in the Americas or the Middle East. A goal that is being discussed with Russia by the DJT administration to refocus American efforts in a new direction and pause not just the Ukraine war but also put the US  and Russia in a new direction with the new competition from 3 billion people in China and India changing everything we know about the world. ...

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This WSJ picture essay report from Afghanistan shows life in different provinces, and the road north from Kabul to Herat on the Iranian border. It says that while the Taliban restrict freedoms, the end of the fighting brings peace to the countryside so long plagued by war, and relief for Afghans from endless war.  It also is year of a severe drought that is expected to cripple agriculture, the worst since 1980. It was just this kind of drought in 1972 that crippled agriculture leading to a famine in the country under King Zahir Shah. For some 300 years since 1700 the British kept foreign powers out of the British Empire's surrounding regions including Afghanistan and Tibet. That drought led to the King's brother-in-law taking control of the country in 1974, conducting a repression of Communist leaders who responded by action inside the military leading to 2 communist factions inside the military taking control. These factions fought for control and invited the Soviets into the country with a friendhship treaty. India under prime minister Indira Gandhi had just fought a war in 1971 to set up a free nation of Bangladesh out of the old East Bengal. It had to deal with millions of refugees from Bangladesh in 1971-72 when these changes were taking place in Afghanistan. British policy had maintained peace for so long but Indira Gandhi was not aware of the dangers from the ousting of a king who had ruled since 1933 and the wars that followed. Bringing Russia into Afghanistan after centuries of peace led to the first error America made fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan under the Reagan policy. After a brief period following a ten year struggle and withdrawal of Russia, the US entered Afghanistan in a 20 year conflict which led to the withdrawal this year. President Biden finally ended the war saying Afghanistan had never been united in its history. Because of the far flung provinces and mountainous terrain, the nature of the country, this is correct. It is also a graveyard of empires which is why the British carefully, rigorously carried out a policy of no foreign powers in Afghanistan and Tibet, both neighboring India, ensuring peace since 1700. ...