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With a general election approaching in Britain the question about a progressive alliance is brought up in the Guardian. A big block is the Labour party with its obsession for vote share, and not seeking alliances of any kind. The Liberal Democrats are creating their own barriers with hostility towards Labour party. This report cites Best for Britain data and says 457 seats are immune to alliances. Of 150 marginals 111 seats the numbers show if SNP, Lib Democrats, Greens swung behind Labour party  it would make a big difference. as in 30 seats even a 5% swing from Labour to the Lib Democrats would give the seat to the Conservatives. The other approach is to have informal alliances at the grassroots level so that progressive candidates can do well.

 

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After 13 years of Labor government, the new Liberal-Conservative coalition is seen as good for both the parties and good for Britain A good deal of optimism about the prospects for this government. The optimism rests on the pragmatic sensible nature of Cameron and Clegg, on the fact that the 2 parties combined have 59% of the vote in the elections for making some tough decisions- on spending cuts, a sensible fiscal program to generate $9 billion in savings through spending cuts in 2010, and generally agreement between the two parties on the significant issues of state finances. The Tories holding to their position on immigration but giving in on the idea of proportional representation. The election changes would have Parliament members in office for 5 years and the manner of election changed to remove a growing distortion of the popular vote. Labor and Conservatives share of the vote has dropped from 81% in 1979 to 65% in 2010, and still Tory and Labor MP's have 565 of the 650 seats in Parliament or 87%....

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Rishi Sunak's approval rating drops by 5 percentage points in just one week, and this after the Conservative Conference in Manchester where he announced plans on relaxing net zero plans and other policy. Sunak's approval rating drops to 20%. A poll taken after Starmer's speech at the Labor conference in Liverpool shows the Conservatives dropping to 24% and Liberal Democrats dropping to 9%. Labor has the support of just under half of voters in Britain today at 47%. 32% now feel Starmer would be the best prime minister compared to 20% for Sunak. After the Liverpool Labor Conference the percentage of people who thought Labor had a clear plan for the country increased by 6 percentage points.

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Difficulties facing Britain which depends on continental Europe for exports and would be affected by whatever happens in Europe, and yet is reduced to being on the sidelines. This comes at a difficult time for the Cameron government, which is a coalition of Conservative party members who are euroskeptics, and the Liberal party members who are the most europhile of the the three major British parties. Sarkozy and Merkel have made clear that they would move ahead with a closer fiscal union within the eurozone, no matter what Britain's views are. This leaves David Cameron's government to what Labor leader, Ed Miliband, called "handwringing," as Britain can do little about the future direction of the EU. Cameron is able to please backbenchers in parliament from his party with talk about protecting British interests, but has no neotiating leverage, according to Steven Fielding, director of the Center for British Politics at the University of Nottingham. Britain may also have antagonized European leaders. Sarkozy said about Cameron and British government views: "You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere with our meetings." This also happens as Britain faces rising unemployment, and deficits larger than anticipated after austerity measures taken by the Cameron government....

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Nick Clegg, deputy prime minister, and the leader of the British Liberal Democrats party, the junior member in the coalition government in Britain, said he was "bitterly disappointed" by prime minister Cameron's decision to reject a pact for 27 EU nations to revise E.U. treaties. He told the BBC in a long interview :"This is bad for Britain." Britain is close to becoming a country "hovering in the mid-Atlantic and not being taken seriously in Europe." But he said "it would be a disaster" for the Liberal Democrats to withdraw from the coalition. Cameron's conditions for protecting Britain's financial industry were rejected by Merkel and Sarkozy.

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The vote on the A.V. or Alternative Voting system based on proportional representation is causing a split in the Liberal Democrat- Conservative coaltiion government. Liberal Democrats favor the A.V. because it estimates that under that system it would have won 30 more seats in addition to the 57 it won in the last election. This was also a key condition of the Liberal Democrats to join the government. Now Liberal Democrat Vince Cable and others are saying they see a Labor- Liberal Democrat coalition as a "progressive majority" preferable to an alliance with the Conservatives, which only gives power to " a right wing clique that wants to keep things as they are." This is happening as Britain faces local elections, and the Liberal Democrat participation in the government is becoming deeply unpopular with the rank and file party members.

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Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, is coming under increasing criticism for supporting the Conservative-Liberal coalition government's austerity plan, and for lack of efforts to fight inflationary pressures. On a major issue on which King has taken a clear stand- that the largest British banks should increase capital levels exceeding the international standards- not much has happened. Consumer prices in Britain were up at a 3.7% annual rate in December, and the government's austerity policies will also cause pain. In a recent speech King said that the Bank of England had limited ability to fight the higher unemployment and increased inflation. It was an admission of the limits of central bankers in the current situation. King said "a squeeze in living standards is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis and the subsequent rebalancing of the UK and world economies.

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A year after Butler, Pennsylvania attempt on the president's life DJT reflects on it in this interview he granted to Gary O'Donoghue of the BBC. DJT said- "I don't like dwelling on it because if I did, it would be, you know, might be life-changing, I don't want it to have to be that." DJT says he liked "the power of positive thinking, or the power of positive non-thinking". On Russian president Putin and the continuing war in Ukraine- "I thought we had a deal done four times and then you go home, and you see, just attacked a nursing home or something in Kyiv. I said: 'What the hell was that all about?'" "I'm not done with Putin. I'm disappointed in him." On Prince Charles, now King Charles- "a great gentleman." And on Britain's prime minister Starmer hear this- "I really like the prime minister a whole lot, even though he's a liberal."   ...

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BBC shows the elections in which large majority of seats went to the Liberals, Conservatives, Labour. In 1945 Clement Attlee won a majority of 145 seats on a program to rebuild Britain after the Second World War, to create the NHS and social security for the older population. Conservatives under Winston Churchill lost 189 seats, but came back 6 years later as the Cold War with the Soviet Union was happening. Twice this changed in 1979 with Margaret Thatcher unwinding some of the aspects of the unions and public enterprises, followed by Labour under Tony Blair accepting the culture of Conservatives that has gone on to the present day in which government is not proactive. Blair won majorities in 1997 and 2001 of 179 and 167 seats yet as seen from today laid the seeds of the problems of Conservative policies getting such wide acceptance that even when the River Thames was polluted and water was privatized for profit motives including loading $19 billion in debt, it did not cause serious questions to be raised. The public shift to Labour in 2024 happens when a complete reversal of the culture of the government not being proactive in the public interest and not supporting  manufacturing to compete worldwide is being reversed. ...

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The local elections in Britain in 2019 show voter dissatisfaction with the mainparties. Both Conservatives and he Labour party each took 28% share of the vote. The big winners were the centrist Liberal Democrats with 19% of the vote. The Greens party also was a winner in the vote. About 8400 seats were up for election in this vote. Conservative party lost 1300 seats. The Labour Party disappointed because it was expected to win more seats as Conservatives did well in the last election in 2015, by winning 81 seats. The Liberal Dems and the Greens won 850 seats between them.  The stridently pro-Brexit Nigel Farage Independence Party did not put up candidates and a anti-Brexit party called ChangeUK also did not have candidates. Both will field candidates in the European elections causing the main parties to lose even more of their support that has dropped to 28%. This means Labour party leaders Corbyn and McDonnell might continue negotiations with Theresa May on Brexit plan. But as Rachel Sylvester reports in The Times today with May lacking support from her Conservative Party, her tenure as prime minister uncertain, there is little incentive for Labour leaders to go against the wishes of a majority of Labour MP's, voters, and members who are against Brexit. Corbyn also want to focus coming elections on austerity not Brexit. So this is not on Labour's agenda. Sylvester says a confirmatory referendum is looking like the only way out of the mess.    ...

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The Economist magazine looks at the mess that Brexit has become and reflects on what this means. The first explanation is that Britons always loathed the evolution of the common market into the European Union. The second that Brexit was simply a result of a simmering civil war between the successful metropolitan  liberal parts of Britain and the provincial conservative parts of Britain. A third one is seen as equally plausible that the country's leadership has failed, that its model of leadership is coming apart.  It says the problem is the chumocracy with David Cameron made the poor decision to go for a referendum on the EU without thinking this through carefully, taking risks with the future of Britain for the sake of narrow party interests. 51% and you are out of the EU was never a fair option when major decisions of such type are handled with great care, even confronted with less momentous decisions other countries use two stage votes or call for super majorities. Basically the whole referendum was flawed to begin with and the people making the decision gambled with the future of Britain and the British economy.  The Economist magazine says the current candidates for Tory leadership, are all inadequate, one even suggesting that Britain should not balk at leaving the EU with no deal because it would create a temporary shortage of Mars bars. It looks at the leaders class in Britain as says it preserves many of the failures of the old establishment by being introverted and self-serving. It sees less expertise and more bluff in their backgrounds in public relations, journalism (Cameron, Johnson) and lighter experience (May as analyst), and sees a singular lack of self restraint because it believes it comes out merit based selection compared to the old establishment. What the Economist magazine sees is meritocracy transformed into crony capitalism for Blair in Labour party and Cameron, Osborne in the Conservative Party. One of the problems it says is the erosion of other ways to enter the leadership ranks from a range of places- business, unions, local government, working class talent, and other places- something that existed in the early postwar years to the sixties. Gradually a shift is taking place already to create new options and broaden the places from which leaders can emerge for broader more effective selection. ...

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This article in the Guardian points out that Britain did not just wake up one morning and find itself in a strange predicament of leaving the European Union. This was happening over two decades as leaders appealed to immigration fears on the right to win voters and the leaders of the Labor party failed to protect their traditional working class base. Voter turnout declined and it points out that Cameron of the Conservative party won the election in 2015 with only 24 percent of the eligible voters, as the hold of the Conservatives and Labor parties declined with each successive election on their voter base as they desperately tried to shore up support by appealing to voters fears even as they literally abandoned their traditional voter base and appeared elitist to less educated, poor workers. The economic crisis and austerity policies created a new voter group of disaffected voters who turned to the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP). The referendum offered by Cameron in 2015 on the EU against the advice of coalition partner Vince Cable and the Liberal Party, without an understanding of the situation in the country after years of austerity policies was only one of a long series of developments that unfolded over two decades unraveling years of work building a better Britain following 1945. ...

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This election marks the end of the New Labor vision of a better life for an upwardly mobile middle class in an expanding market economy. It started with Tony Blair presenting his centrist post Thatcherite vision and ended in the storm that took over the British economy during the global financial crisis under the stewardship of Gordon Brown. An earlier generation also experienced something like this when Harold Macmillan, was the Conservative prime minister, and Britain experienced a post war economic surge which improved living standards for an earlier generation. The election results far from creating a new vision of Britain, put Britain in a muddle as one observer put it, with all parties short of a majority, and the Liberals ending up with fewer seats.

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This and other WSJ, NYT, and other articles say Minnesotan Tim Walz started out as a moderate in a rural Republican leaning district, and shifted to being "liberal" and "progressive" using labels that have by 2024 lost meaning and lost common sense. Tim Walz is accused by the existing culture of being this or that label when he is simply following his instincts about what it means to live in the Age of the Enlightenment that marks all European societies and gave them a head start over Chinese and Indian feudal society during the 19th century Industrial Revolution. When one looks back at the period after Kennedy-Johnson in the sixties, American political economic social and culture has gone through a shift to turn its back on workers and families, turn its back on the "Enlightenment" itself under a culture shift. It happened under administrations both Republican and Democratic over 50 years since 1970. Under a Republican Congressman, and following this a Governor of California, a Texas Congressman and Texas Governor, and under Governors of southern states Georgia and Arkansas, a Congressman from Illinois, and a NBC television show personality. That culture shift has become so instilled at this point that labels such as progressive and liberal are attached in ways that make no sense, lack common sense. Do school meals have anything to do with politics, do you prefer poor family kids going hungry, is that your cultural thing? Is supporting college education for the depressed income groups have anything to so with politics? Only when one rejects the "Enlightenment" that accompanies the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 19th century, the idea of modernity ushered in by the rejection of feudalism by the French Revolution,  would one reject the idea of giving access to education and through it to a better life for workers and families to all parts of society. ...

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A survey by Bonn based infas Institute of Applied Social Science in 2017 shows Germans are not affected by 2 years of crises in the way they look at the world. Germans are still the same in their international outlook, in tolerance and openness, and liberal outlook. Chancellor Merkel even says today that she would do again what she did during the height of the refugee crisis when refugees gathered at Keleti station in Budapest and began the long march to Austria and Germany. Merkel goes into the 2017 election with the kind of confidence that did not appear likely even at the beginning of 2017. The European Union could even emerge stronger from the crisis. Britain's Conservative government appears isolated after the Brexit vote.

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It all ends as expected. Another chapter in the Brexit saga ends with the mutiny in the Conservative Partyl, the resignation of Ms. Leadsom, the party's leader in the House of Commons. WIth most Conservative Party members abandoning the approach of Theresa May of putting unpopular Brexit deals to votes in parliament, the latest planned for June 7. Conservative Party members have already shown their support for Mr. Boris Johnson, who leads by a wide margin in a leadership contest. Johnson supports a no-deal Brexit and once said that would only mean a shortage of Mars chocolate bars. This faction in the Conservative Party including Jacob Rees-Moog believes that Brexit without a deal with the European Union will work. It opposes a customs union arrangement following Brexit. The only problem is that earlier votes have not shown a majority of members of parliament support no-deal Brexit because of fears about the British economy. The fall in the British pound exchange rate shows this is expected. This could mean fresh elections, yet both Conservatives and Labour Party face voter skepticism about their handling of Brexit and loss of support to Liberals in the case of labour and to the Brexit Party in the case of the Conservatives, leaving more uncertainty. Conservatives polled about 11% in advance of European Union elections in Britain, unheard of in modern British politics. ...

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The only way the Conservatives can form a majority to govern in Britain is by getting the support of the Democratic Unionist Party with its 10 seats, and this would still give Conservatives 328 seats in parliament, with 326 required for a majority. This very thin 3 seat majority could lead to a fall of the government if a couple of Conservative party members defected. Here Davies points out that though the Democratic Unionist party supports Brexit it is of a very different nature. The party is based in Ireland and originated with Rev. Ian Paisley. With its Irish roots it wants free movement of goods and people across the border with Ireland which is an EU member, access to EU funding and protection for farmers. Ireland has shown serious concern about the Brexit vote, and Northern Ireland voters voted against Brexit 56% to 44% for Brexit. This open border and EU support is close to what is currently in place. As Davies points out this puts the whole Brexit negotiating process in doubt, with no coherent position for Britain at all, leading to a collapse of the talks and no deal with the European Union. Another reason the doubts about Brexit are likely to grow is that a large part of the UK Independence Party support has disappeared, with UKIP getting 1.8% of the vote compared to about 11% in 2015 election. The combined vote of the parties that see Brexit as a priority for Britain was in fact about 45.1%, combining Conservatives 42.4%, Democratic Unionist 0.9% and UKIP 1.8%. The parties that did not see Brexit as a priority for Britain won over 50% of the vote this time- Labor 40.0%, Scottish National party 3.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.4%, according to BBC. Davies says the increasing uncertainty is bad for the British economy. In coming months doubts are likely to grow about whether the referendum was a priority for Britain, and how this is a distraction from the other serious issues facing the British economy to ensure a better future. ...

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This analysis in the NYT shows that Labour won 412 seats in the British Parliament with only one third of the vote, and only 60% of voters participating. And Reform UK of Nigel Farage with 14% of the vote across UK won only 4 seats. The Greens won only 4 seats with 7% of the vote. The Conservatives with 23% of the vote won 120 seats. Labour's share of the youngest vote in the youngest seats actually dropped from 51% to 44%, with votes going to Reform UK and to the Liberal Democrats. Conservatives dropped across the board but still did better with older voters. And the Liberal Democrats astonishingly gained about 60 seats with just a slight increase of votes of only 0.08% increase in votes from 11.6% to 12.2% pushing its seat count from 11 in 2019 to 71 seats in 2024. This is why Keir Starmer has won big yet knows he has alot of work to do and promises stability as well as change that begins today for Britain, a cautious approach that also seeks to make further gains in the future by winning the hearts of the British people and also bringing relief for cost of living to the British public and good government. Building infrastructure and public services will come as Labour wins the confidence of Britons with a larger vote share in the coming years to support sweeping changes that Britain needs for infrastructure health, education and public services. ...

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The Tory plan to abolish the Financial Services Authority will not go through under the new Liberal-Conservative coalition. The plan now is to give the Bank of England responsibility for banks and financial institutions that are big enough to create systemic risk and to oversee financial regulation. The coalition partners support a levy on banks to act as a buffer in future crises, and favor restricting bank bonuses. The Conservatives would tax bank size, and the Liberals would tax bank profits, but both share the goal of raising 1 billion pounds in this way. Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat party's Treasury person will now be business secretary at Treasury, and he favors breaking up the biggest banks, shrinking banks and separating retail and investment banking activities. This could happen under the new coalition, but it is likely to be preceded with some commission asked to look into it. The Liberals like to see less focus on London for the markets and banks owned by their customers as far as possible....

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Bennhold and Erlanger of the NYT point out that prime minister Theresa May has remained vague about the nature of the negotiations for Brexit. The snap election increases the confusion with a hung parliament and no party getting a majority. The result can be seen as sending mixed signals. The British public by supporting parties such as Labor, SNP and Liberal Democrats with over 50% of the vote, is saying that it is not sure about Brexit being a priority for Britain, given the uncertainty for the British economy and other pressing problems. All this had been lost in the debate about hard and soft Brexit, in the political rhetoric taken up by Ms May when the basic questions about Brexit have not gone away. Here Erlanger and Bennhold take leaders back to these questions posed by former finance minister George Osborne. Osborne as Editor of The Evening Standard asked readers 10 questions- How is withdrawal going to increase trade when you leave the biggest free trading bloc in the world? How can withdrawal help London as the financial capital of the world? How is migraton going to be tackled when its not clear which business will have its labor supply restricted or curtailed. For these reasons- apart from many others about the whole process of withdrawal and the cost to Britain- the whole idea of Brexit appears to have not been thoroughly thought through. As a result the referendum vote may be seen in Europe as a temporary reflection of British opinion at that point of time, and subject to change over time.   ...

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The former head of U.S. Homeland Security ministry, Mr. Chertoff, and the former head of NATO, Mr. Anders Rasmussen, say the U.S. and European allies are not prepared to meet Russian meddling in elections two years after the U.S. elections and elections in the last year in Germany, France, Spain and Italy. Both co-chair Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity. They expect 20 elections between now and 2020, and see 20 opportunities for Russian meddling in these elections- suggesting the response to the recent meddling is very inadequate. They cite the shift from fake news to hyper partisan narrative used in the Italian election. This approach uses some content that is true to weave a narrative that leads to an exaggerated version of events. It was used on immigration to appeal to immigrant weary Italians to lead to a situation where the anti-immigrant party Northern League attracted a large portion of the vote. This approach is not new as it was used by pro-Brexiters with ads showing an unending wave of immigrants crossing European borders. Suggesting Britain itself was facing this wave of immigration, using pictures of immigrants from Africa crossing the borders of Hungary and Austria. Placed on buses and billboards this influenced the election, including hyper narrative stories about what how the UK was sending 350 million pounds a week to the European Union which could go to the NHS instead. Britain's Liberal Party leader Nick Clegg and Joe Biden former Vice President are members of the new Commission. ...

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Helen Gao provides this exceptional story of how 544,000 Chinese students studying abroad far from being success stories are facing stress, anxiety, depression to an unusual degree. About 329,000 of them are in the U.S. where the $50,000 to $60,000 college tuition cost is ten times the disposable income of a Chinese family. For working class families study abroad means using up savings. Researchers at Yale in a 2013 survey found 45 percent of Chinese students on campus had symptoms of depression, 29% had anxiety. This is similar to other universities in the U.S., Australia and Britain with large Chinese student populations. Language barriers and cultural barriers pose a problem particularly in student interactions with advisers and professors. Liberal arts studies emphasize critical thinking and other skills that are not found in a results oriented, memorization from note cards oriented system in China, creating academic stress. Worse what awaits students who return is not enough recognition for years spent studying in a different environment- about 80% of Chinese students from abroad earn a mere $1500 a month, according to a Beijing think tank Center for China and Globalization report done with a recruitment agency Zhilian Zhaopin. As she talks about the experience of other students from China, Gao describes her own anxiety attacks during 8 years of study in the U.S. Her father sent pictures after his first visit to the U.S. in 1995 says Gao, with words about how he wanted his daughter to see the U.S. with her own eyes, the beauty of the country and its spirit. Years later Helen Gao of Beijing sees a different America as she walks from one Harvard campus building to another in 2015 during her last year of graduate study, one that brings anxiety, financial insecurity, and uncertainty about the future.   ...

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Erlanger and Castle look at the reasons given for the resounding defeat of the Labor party in 2016 British elections. Mr. Blair's view is that Labor as a traditional left wing party going against a right wing party produces a traditional result, reflects the Thatcher years when Britain was looking for a new way forward after the previous Labor governments and state involvement in the economy. More forces were at work in this election, say experts. Peter Mandelson of the Labor party and Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Micklethwait, say other forces are at work, with Scottish nationalism depriving Labor of a core constituency it had relied on, with 40 seats in the 2010 elections going down to 1 in 2015 general election. English nationalism meant the only gains for Labor in England came from Liberal Democrats not from Conservatives. Cameron appealed to Englsih voters that a Labor left oriented government in alliance with the Scottish National Party, which is more to the left than Labor, would be bad for England. Other commentators have suggested that liberal economics of the type espoused by Blair and Gordon Brown had failed to reduce inequality or improve living standards of working class people, led Britain into the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and lost credibility. Globalization, the decline of heavy industry in Scotland, and other changes in the global economy have also changed the playing field. The Conservatives showed flexibility in relaxing deficit rules after 2012, and were intent on protecting the National Health Service, giving their campaign theme about putting Britain on the right path to economic recovery more credibility. Other issues such as immigration also played out against Labor, hurting labor more than the Conservatives, with the defeat of Labor's Ed Balls in Leeds attributed to the increased votes going to the UK Independence Party from working class and centrist voters. In the end Labor received only 30.1% of the popular vote. ...

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This was one of the last reports written by Anthony Shadid, New York Times foreign correspondent, before his death in Syria. It covers the Islamist movement's shift to modernism and incorporating an outlook that includes ideas of liberal democracy from Britain, as seen from Tunisia. No longer is the main source of ideas coming from Egypt. A diverse group of thought is being developed in Arab and North Africa, and in places like London, where emigres from the Middle East during the years of repression gathered to discuss ideas for the future. Said Ferjani's as one of these emigres is one of sources of the new thinking and approaches of Islamist thought.

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Scott Anderson of the NYT provides an indepth look at the Arab World and its fragmentation through the eyes of five people from each part of the Arab world- Egyptian, Kurd, Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian. He says the countries that fell apart are precisely the ones that were formed by the British and the French, and Italy, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire  using divide and rule policies- Britain in Iraq, France in Syria, and Italy in Libya- without much thought given to setting up viable nation states. This is why Iraq has a Sunni-Shia divide, Syria has similar divisions, and Libya with a largely tribal based structure, never really held together after the colonial powers left, and were held together only by strong dictators. Today's problems trace back to these historical events. This is complicated by the largely young demographic and restlessness of the people for change coupled with problems of underdevelopment in education, tribal loyalties, religious loyalties, and lack of political and social structures that could keep the countries together as change and transition to democratic processes took place. The role of the military further complicated matters in Egypt. Even Iran experienced these divisions because of the intervention of the great powers including Russia in Iran since 1900, leading to swings between liberal governments, foreign power supported governments, and a swing back to religious leadership as at present. This is one view of the region, others are presented by Ramadan (Oxford),  Bernard Lewis (Princeton), and leaders in Qatar and Emirates, other experts, some of whom point to the failure in leadership and the elites to find solutions to the problems of underdevelopment, in education, health, infrastructure, and aspirations for a voice in their governance. As the same divisions left by colonial powers affected Asia- in India, China, and Korea, but a larger vision of progress prevailed through crises and difficulties.        ...