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Ivan Rogers, UK ambassador to the European Union for three years till 2017 was sharply critical of the British government and forecast some of the Brexit problems. He has a book "9 Lessons in Brexit," which appeared in Feb. 2019. Here he is interviewed by Der Spiegel. He says he expected some of the problems but is still surprised that 4 weeks before the deadline the political class in Britain has not yet figured out what kind of Brexit they want. Here he points out that Cameron and Blair represented the centre in British politics. But that centre has now collapsed after the financial crisis and the period of austerity led to widening gaps between the different parts of British society. The public is now deeply alienated from both major parties. In both parties the populists on the left and the right have gained a bigger influence, as a result there are no centre right or centre left figures who command public influence. Rogers is a civil servant of high rank who has worked with several prime ministers including Blair and Cameron. His comments are worth listening to.  Was Theresa May the right person to tackle Brexit? Her problem says ROgers is that she started with a hardline position of reducing the number of people entering the UK from inside or outside the EU. Once you do this you cannot have free movement of goods, services and capital, so you have to leave the single market. And if Britain wanted a fully autonomous trade policy then it cannot stay in the customs union. Rogers thinks Theresa May never really understood what this meant- that it was going much further out of the European Union than Norway or Switzerland, or even Turkey. Now as she is trying to go back her right wing cries betrayal. Do British prime ministers understand the single market, the customs union, or how the EU really works? Rogers worked on European issues for a long time and he says after working very closely with British prime ministers that none of them had a deep understanding of how the European Union works. Plus they lack any emotional attachment to the EU, because of the mercantile relationship Britain has had with its neighbors. About the relationships in Europe between the Germans, the French, the British, what is it and what will it be like? Rogers says he has not seen a thinner relationship in his lifetime. He thinks the European political elites are not talking to each other anything like what was done 20 or 30 years ago. He says the Brits have to take a lot of the responsibility because the British political class lost interest in Europe. What could the Europeans have done? Rogers says the chaos continues because the British don't really know where they want to go. It opaque about the relationship on purpose. Have the Europeans thought about what kind of a continent they want to see after all this is over? This interview tells you more about the Brexit problem that many reports and opinions, bringing a thoughtful way of looking at the problem. ...

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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Britain has fallen way behind under Conservatives Tories misrule. On just about all indicators of the economy the US is ahead of Britain, on cost of living, on investment in infrastructure, on chips and science, on unemployment and on economic growth. The US economic growth was 2% compared to 0.5% for Britain.  Britain under the Tories over the last ten years lost so much ground fighting for Brexit and hurting it's economy. The Tory party is itself torn apart again today by Farage's Reform party, much of it from poor leadership- Cameron, Boris Johnson, Sunak. The result today is that Labour's Starmer says he has a 22 billion pound gap in the Budget that the Tories Conservatives have left him, a hole he says that will lead to Labour cutting winter fuel payment for pensioners this winter.  The US with president Biden is so far ahead of Britain with $1 trillion in investments taking place under the Inflation Reduction Act and $53 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. Harris plans to build 3 million homes and offer $100 billion to small business to spur growth. There is just no comparison and owes much to president Biden and Harris, and to senior Republicans who supported the administration on the economy. ...

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Prime minister Renzi of Italy resigns after defeat in a referendum to change the constitution. Renzi had said he would resign if there was a "no" vote on constitutional changes to make it possible to pass further reforms. The results show the "yes" vote with about 41% of the vote, and 59% saying "no." About 65% of 47 million registered voters voted. The referendum called for cutting the size of the upper house Senate eliminating some constitutional bodies, and increasing powers at the federal level. Renzi may have made the mistake of making the vote for or against constitutional change a vote for his democratic left party, and not understanding the depth of public skepticism of established parties. Parties such as 5 Star M5S  have appealed to a public skeptical of how economic reforms would help bring more prosperity to the middle class, and a desire to try out new options. Virginia Raggi of M5S was elected mayor of Rome recently and Renzi's referendum move similar to the way prime minister Cameron moved for a referendum on an old issue of euroskeptisim, may have failed to grasp grassroots changes. The irony is that in 2014 elections to the European parliament Renzi's democratic left party won 40% of the vote and was seen at the time as a success, and the same size vote in the referendum is seen as a failure. In a referendum all other parties votes are added together from right to left parties and new parties. In the Brexit vote the Labor party "no" vote including Labor voters who never voted added to the votes of Brexit supporters and the newer UKIP party giving Brexit the slight edge needed. The singular feature of the trend is that working class voters are combining with right leaning voters to upset established parties, in the midwestern U.S., in the north of England, and in the north of France. In the medium to long run this means the left parties are likely to move to realign themselves with their base of support. ...

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Witte, Booth and Adam of the Washington Post describe the situation Britain's prime minister Theresa May finds herself in after calling a snap election. A badly run campaign by May focusses on Brexit, and leads to election losses to Labor. Without the support of voters in Scotland who voted tactically to prevent Scotland from breaking away, the Conservatives would have no chance of forming a government. May now needs the 10 seats of the Democratic Unionist Party in Scotland to have a 3 seat majority. Labor leader Corbyn despite a barrage of negative publicity from British tabloids, maintained his cool and composure. His focus on the austerity politics of the Conservatives under Cameron and now May, enabled Labor to get 40% of the vote compared to the Conservatives 43%, with the Scottish National Party getting 3% and the Liberal Democrats 7.4%. Giving the parties that have never seen Brexit as a priority for Britain over 50% of the vote. The Democratic Unionist is a small party with less than 1% of the vote (0.9%), which in some countries makes it ineligible to take seats in the legislature. In the mixed up out of focus nature of British politics today this party is the kingmaker. The UK Independence party or UKIP party that started the whole affair of Brexit- that prime minister Cameron responded to to gain votes for the Conservatives by promising the referendum on Brexit- won just 1.8% of the votes cast, in a election where 69% of voters went to the polls, winning zero seats, down from 10.8% in the 2015 election. This is the state of British politics today  following the failure of political leaders, as Theresa May acts as if the election results are not sending a message about Brexit, say Witte, Booth and Adams.   ...

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This report in The Times take a look at the work Liz Truss has done as International Trade Secretary and now Foreign Secretary. Truss does not want Britain to become economically dependent on China. More than Johnson Truss is a UK Atlanticist who wants the UK to work with the US and the EU to build a western world that is entirely independent of China. Looking at her work and experience it would appear that Truss is the most underestimated of the candidates for prime minister, much more so than Sunak. She can be strident and aggressive but she has gone through a process of thinking and studying before that with a willingness to try new ideas. She come from an intellectual  family and one that was active in left wing activism. She studied at a comprehensive school in Leeds before going to Merton College Oxford  to study philosophy, economics and politics, and was willing to change her thinking when persuaded about a different course of action to get better results. She also gained the knowledge she needs to do her own thinking with experience first hand as Chief Secretary at Treasury, Secretary of International Trade, and as Foreign Secretary, getting trade deals with Australia and negotiating with other countries. Cameron, May, Johnson lacked this kind of knowledge and experience. And Sunak also falls way short of this kind of knowledge acquired and experience handling international assignments key to Britain's advancement after Brexit. ...

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Prime minister Theresa May of Britain announces her plan to spend an additional 20 billion pounds a year on the National Health Service. Over five years the commitment is for an additional 70 billion pounds. By 2023 this will bring the UK to the point where it is spending the same proportion on health care as France. This also fulfills a promise made by the pro Brexit campaign. May says some of this would come from higher taxes, and 9 billion pounds that the UK contributes to the European Union each year would go to pay for the additional funds to the NHS. The 2017 British election with Labor winning 40% of the vote has affirmed the shift in public sentiment to greater commitment of funds for health and education. Poorer communities in Britain that were left behind tended to vote for Brexit, with a large gap widening between London and the rest of the country. Higher commitment to NHS is part of the shift in perception that the needs of health, education and underserved communities are the new priorities. ...

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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...

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As the Conservative Party chooses its new leader the hard reality that the country does not support a no-deal Brexit favored by frontrunner Boris Johnson intrudes into the race. The Labour Party plans to build cross party support to block any no-deal Brexit in parliament.

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A new poll from YouGov shows the Conservative Party getting 310 seats and Labor Party at 257 seats. Labor would gain 30 seats and Conservatives lose 20 seats under this prediction. Conservatives would fall short of the majority of 326 seats needed. Support for Theresa May is slipping especially after announcing older people would have to take on more burden for care, dubbed the dementia tax by media. A coalition of Labor party with the Scottish National party (SNP) with 50 seats and the Liberal Democrats with 10 seats is now a possibility.

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This report in the DW on Brexit shows Britain deeply divided, with older voters supporting Leave and younger voters coming out for Remain. Most of northern England and Wales coming out for Leave, and London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds  with Scotland and Northern Ireland coming out for Remain. The failure of Labor Party to rally its supporters under Corbyn also rankles with some in the Remain campaign. Corbyn avoided joint appearances with the Remain campaign and said he was 7.5 out of ten in favor of remaining in the EU.

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This editorial in The Economist magazine points out that the doggedness of prime minister Theresa May now looks like pig-headedness. The crisis is of poor leadership. It also exposes two deeper problems in the Leave campaigns distorted message that it is possible for Britain to leave the EU, "to take back control" without making it harder to for British business and the economy to trade with its partners in Europe. It also exposes concerns of democracy that see the referendum as the only message from the people- the general election of 2017 brought Conservatives to power without a majority in parliament changing the picture about the referendum's message. Particularly since the referendum Leave campaign presented a distorted  message leaving out what the cost would be for Britain.  Ejection from the single market, decline of industy from finance to carmaking, destablisation of Northen Ireland peace agreement, exit bill of 50 bill euros was not advertised in the Leave campaign. Buses with posters of immigrants streaming across borders in Europe presented an emotional message recklessly sold to voters. Representing the will of the people can be claimed now by all sides, says the Economist. Leaving Europe on March 29 deadline with no deal would be bad for Europe and economic upheaval for Britain. Discerning the will of the people should not be the work of squabbling MP's or backbenchers in parliament. The only practical and sensible way out of this mother of all messes is to go back to the people and get a new opinion with broad daylight thrown on the realities facing Britain.   ...

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This piece in Der Spiegel points out that Brexit may be an opportunity if European leaders recognize that there can be different levels of unity, and that different countries in the EU can advance at their own pace with Germany and France providing a core group. There is no longer the need for continual enlargement of the European Union as has happened before. It also offers a time to take some deep breaths and reflect on the progress so far and where it has come short, what to do about it, such as the bureaucracy that has grown in Brussels, the different views on immigration, and public sentiment. Actually the whole progress towards the European Community, and then the European Union has evolved over time. In the immediate postwar years, after one setback Adenauer once said during the difficult negotiations in 1951-52 between France and Germany to set up the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Community and the European Union- "arme Europa, arme Europa," (poor Europe, poor Europe). The Dutch and Belgian delegates had strong differences for the headquarters for the ECSC- Turin was rejected, Liege and Brussels were proposed, until Monnet was made head of the High Authority of the European Coal and Steel Community with headquarters in Luxembourg. Monnet himself considered stepping down a couple of times because of differences, and the Editor of Le Monde described Monnet's plans for European integration as "a leap in the dark." This was the first of many difficult steps in the evolution of the European Union. Nationalist feeling was nothing new, as the Gaullists opposed Monnet's drive for European unity when it differed from their ideas. Still Monnet persevered and progress took place every ten years as it must now.  ...

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This leader in The Economist magazine says a hard Brexit of the sort announced by Theresa May at a Conservative Party conference is clearly bad for Britain. It also point out that half of British people voted to remain. It is not clear that voters have voted for a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit, or voter alienation with elites and effects of years of austerity since the financial crisis have helped tilt the vote to Brexit. It points out that the rhetoric may be damaging Britain's chance of negotiating a Brexit that limits damage to GDP, which the Treasury estimates to be nearly twice the loss in GDP if a member of a single market as compared to leaving it. British government leaders may be overestimating the willingness of leaders of France, Germany and other countries to make concessions. By talking up to their party base politicians such as May may be putting German and French leaders to also toughen their positions on free movement as an integral principle of the European Union, and consequently of membership in a single market. ...

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In a decline in living standards for 9 months since March 2016, the longest stretch since 1975, UK household disposable income declined again in 2017. UK household's disposable income fell 1.4% on the quarter in the first 3 months of 2017, according to the Office of National Statistics. This decline for the third quarter in succession comes from weak wage growth, rising prices, and higher taxes. This also shows that Brexit has certainly not helped the British economy, and provides further evidence that it is hurting the British economy. With increasing uncertainty after the parliamentary elections, a weak government, serious questions about Brexit, further weakening of the annualized growth of 0.9% at this point is not ruled out by experts. One evidence about Brexit's impact- the steep decline in the value of the British pound since the June 23, 2016 Brexit referendum has accelerated inflation in May to 2.9%, significantly surpassing any slight growth in wages. This leaves Britain worse off than before, with the future uncertain under Brexit talks.  ...

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This article in the Guardian points out that Britain did not just wake up one morning and find itself in a strange predicament of leaving the European Union. This was happening over two decades as leaders appealed to immigration fears on the right to win voters and the leaders of the Labor party failed to protect their traditional working class base. Voter turnout declined and it points out that Cameron of the Conservative party won the election in 2015 with only 24 percent of the eligible voters, as the hold of the Conservatives and Labor parties declined with each successive election on their voter base as they desperately tried to shore up support by appealing to voters fears even as they literally abandoned their traditional voter base and appeared elitist to less educated, poor workers. The economic crisis and austerity policies created a new voter group of disaffected voters who turned to the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP). The referendum offered by Cameron in 2015 on the EU against the advice of coalition partner Vince Cable and the Liberal Party, without an understanding of the situation in the country after years of austerity policies was only one of a long series of developments that unfolded over two decades unraveling years of work building a better Britain following 1945. ...

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BBC's Europe Editor Katya Adler talks to EU officials and gives this assessment of how the situation in Britain after the elections looks from the European Union. The elections in France with pro-EU Macron winning with a large majority, the increasing support for Angela Merkel in Germany, the drubbing for the Five Star Movement in Italy, all point to increasing confidence in the EU, and willingness to let Britain sort its mess out while the EU focusses on more pressing issues. Adler calls the first day of talks on Brexit a Mad Hatters Tea Party, showing how Britain is seen in the EU as having a huge complicated mess to sort out. British politicians are seen from the outside as having ruffled up the electorate on migration, the European Court of Justice and other issues, just to make their own points and for their own ends, not necessarily having the best interests of Britain in mind.

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This article in the Economist points out that 84% of Britons want the 3.5 million existing immigrants to stay in Britain, even though the government of Theresa May has not given a clear commitment. May wants a reciprocal commitment for 1.2 million Britons living abroad in the EU. In 2015 330,000 immigrants came to Britain, with close to half from the EU. The Conservative government has not been able to reduce the number- a result for the most part from 10 Eastern European countries entering the EU in 2004 and 2007, says the Economist. Brexit negotiations are not likely to lead to results in migration partly because of the long negotiations with the European Union needed for changes. Other issues are that the food processing, farming and hospitality industries need low cost labor from Eastern Europe.

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The director of Vote Leave on Brexit referendum Dominic Cummings says Brexit could be a mistake for Britain. Asked if he thinks differently now, he says in a Twitter exchange cited in Britain's Guardian newspaper- "Lots. I said before REF was a dumb idea, other things shdve been tried 1st." Others are having second thoughts about the referendum, as shown here.

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Andy Street, Mayor of the West Midlands Combined Authority, says when you consider that London gets 7 times the infrastructure spending per person than West Midlands, "its not bloody surprising" that his region is not growing fast. West Midlands covers a large part of central England, including Wolverhampton, Birmingham and Coventry. Even life expectancy is lower by 8 years in Blackpool, and disposable income can be quarter in Camden compared to North London. Labor's Corbyn and Conservative's Thatcher in the British general election are both campaigning for reviving the regions outside London, that have seen investment in people and technology lag substantially behind London. Regional revival is the big issue in this election. Consider that London which accounted for about 15% of economic output in the 1980's now accounts for nearly 25% of economic output of Britain. Berlin is about 4% of Germany's economy, and Paris 10% of France's economy. A word of caution on Brexit is sounded by experts at the University of Birmingham, who say the whole process of Brexit is so complicated that it may detract from the task of reviving this region. Even though the political upheaval had origins in this discontent, was it more about shifting government attention to the gap between London and the rest of the country, and less about a complex process of withdrawal from the European Union. ...

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Reports suggest voter turnout of young people 18-24 was close to 70%. With most of the new voters, about 2 million 19-34 year olds registered to vote in the weeks before the election according to the Electoral Commission, drawn into politics by the simplicity and style of Labor leader Corbyn. One voter says young people voted because Labor did not sneer at them, recalling the negative tactics employed in the campaign and the likability of Labor leader Corbyn because he refused to respond. The National Union of Students and organizations such as UpRising, Hope Not Hate, Bite the Ballot, pushed young people into involvement. The election for students was more about the impact of Tory cuts to education, health, and other services, and about the future for generations to come. Students were deeply upset about the results of the EU referendum. The result is that in places where students were predominant such as Newcastle East and Central, Manchester Withington and Central, Cambridge and Canterbury, the turnout jumped  to give Labor wins in the north of England, and in London. ...

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This piece in the DW.com describes the error made by Andrea Leadsom in her interview with the Times, saying that she was better qualified than Theresa May for leadership of the Conservative Party and the post of prime minister because she had children. Leadsom's error was compounded by the comments made by May that she regretted being childless. The comments were in the media for days and led to negative perception of Ms. Leadsom. Leadsom called for a retraction by the Times but the Times had already recorded her comments, making the whole affair appear to be a mistake by Leadsom, even a  bit stupid. Leadsom's efforts to embellish her resume about investment banking experience had already raised questions.With Boris Johnson supporting Leadsom this has proved Johnson, Gove and other Brexit leaders as lacking credibility. Therea May is now left with the difficult task of negotiating Brexit, but at least says most of the European media and media in Germany, May is not a fanatic, and Brexit is in the hands of a responsible politician who never supported Brexit. ...