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Faced with the prospects of severe hardship in poorer countries, the World Bank gives a realistic forecast for 2009 that shows the world economy shrinking in 2009. It says the neeeds of poorer countries are likely to overwhelm what the IMF and the World Bank can do. And called for seting up a"vulnerability fund". Even if the World Bank tripled its lending in 2009, it would only reach $35 billion. The combined gap the emerging market countries face it says, is at least $270 billion and upto $700 billion in the next 2 years.

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How the energy business sale of gas turbines to provide electricity in the middle east is boosting GE's energy business worldwide, increasing sales to over $20 billion in 2007, at the last peak in 2002 sales reached $22.5 billion for GE's energy business. Couple of things to note. GE's revenue is growing at about 20% a year in the middle east. Its sales in the middle east now exceed China's with $8 billion in Middle East for 2007 vs. 6 billion in China. By 2010 sales from China India Brazil and Middle East will total $50 billion compared to 30 billion today. thst is an increase of 67% over 3 years. Power is a big chunk of this in addition there are aircraft engines and health care equipment. See the other article on middle east growth July 19, 2007 WSJ. About half of the population of 300 million in the middle east is under 20 years of age. Also note the last runup in GE's stock price was from its surging energy business in the 1990's.

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There is this wonderful story from Kempley Gloucestershire, England, where a retired physicist 75 years old suffers from loneliness five months after losing his wife to pancreatic cancer. He lives close to his wife's family to whom he is not close, and he is not close to 3 siblings. He was very close to his wife with whom he did cooking and worked in the garden and an orchard he had.  Two adverts in the paper, putting out cards and giving them out while out shopping failed. FInally after putting the fact of his loneliness on a page on his window in large letters he gets a response from locals and from all over the world from Germany, Netherlands, U.S., Japan, India and Australia.  It said "I find the unremitting silence 24 hours a day unbearable can no one help me?" He says he was not having pity on himself. All he wanted was someone he could have a pleasant conversation with which is now happening. This period of hectic life of the last three decades we have transitioned to without realizing it is made worse by tech driven pace.  More and more people are feeling this loneliness with children far apart and busy with their own lives, and the loss of a spouse or loved one can make loneliness worse.    ...

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The Italian comedy movie "Quo Vado," became a hit in Italy in 2016, premiering on Jan. 1. It tells the story of a government clerk played by Checco Zalone, whose only aspiration in life is a 9 to 5 government job for life. It lets Italians laugh at the past in a Italy that is changing. Today, the Turin newspaper La Stampa points out from its survey, two of three Italians would take some risk if it means career advancement. Yet public sector job protections remain firmly in place even as the private sector is changing rapidly not just in Italy but in Spain and other parts of the European Union.

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By May 2015 the Russsian ruble had recovered to 50 to the dollar from the low of 80 to the dollar in 2014. In August 2015 the ruble declined to 70 to the dollar as oil prices dropped below $40 per barrel. GDP growth showed a decline of 4.6% for the economy in the 2nd quarter of 2015. The ruble has lost close to 50% of its value in 2015 compared to the prior year.

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China's GDP growth accelerated slightly to 6.9 percent in the 1st quarter of 2017, after five consecutive quarters of GDP growth at 6.7-6.8%, according to government data. This reflected larger use of steel in the construction industry and more mortgages issued by the state controlled banking sector. Government officials say productivity is improving helping GDP growth, with closing of less efficient manufacturing plants. Industrial production increased 7.6% in March 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The government is trying to control higher lending and reduce the backlog of bad loans at banks. Higher growth helps to reduce the bad loans at banks from the earlier period after 2008 financial crisis, improving financial stability.

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Unemployment reaches 6.2% in Oct. 2014, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and the Australian economy faces the risk of a recession in 2015.

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Germany has 4 million Muslims and Russia 13 million Muslims. Germany is considering banning the anti-Islamic video in Sept 2012. Russia will ban the video and has warned internet companies not to show the video because of its extremist content.

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The Saudis fear a blowback from a military push by the US against the Taliban. Pakistan sees a push by the USA leading to Taliban concentrating in the Baluchistan part of Pakistan.

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The 177 acre campus in Ann Arbor, Michigan, that is the Pfizer Research labs is closed, sealed off and silent, an empty place, now that Pfizer has decided to close the labs for good. Lipitor was invented here by a group of researchers who had their foundation in chemistry. One of them was a Yugoslavian immigrant to the UK who moved here, Dr Sliskovic to join Warner Lambert. Pfizer acquired Warner Lambert in 2000, now 7 years later the Labs are closed as chemist based research has not produced much in results.For years chemists at these labs have labored without finding a new drug. The success of Lipitor has sustained this research generating $13 billion a year. But now Pfizer is looking to outsource some of the chemist based work to places like India. Some of the research money will go to biotech research which now looks more promising and research will be handled from it Coonecticut based research offices. The whole field of chemistry based resarch for pharmaceuticals is changing and is not what it once was and chemists are looking for jobs in other fields....

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The story is an encouraging one as the president and bipartisan Congressmen persevered with courage and patience to invest in America. The story is told by Biden adviser Gene Sperling in the WSJ today Feb 16, 2024, and is on this page. The US federal Budget deficit rises to 6.1%  in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024, then slows to 5.2% in 2027 and 2028, going back to 6.1% in 2034. Because these projections depend on assumptions inflation, interest rates, wages, which may be different in actual numbers in future years the broad guage one can get is that the extra surge in investment of five tenths or six tenths of a percentage point of GDP help the US make the investments in an aging or crumbling infrastructure and in manufacturing, better technologies, not replaced since the 1950's or 1970's, is needed for economic growth and better living conditions for the American people. It is this investment that in trillions of dollars of spending under president Biden that has generated growth of 3.1% in the last 2 years compared to the recession in Germany, UK, France and otehr European countries. UK is the latest to fall into recession this month. Sluggish growth can also be seen in China with a bloated construction center hindering growth. The US is in abetter position after the pandemic than any other country with the exception of India. ...

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Zhou Xiaochuan, is head of the People's Bank of China since 2002. For a long time Zhou has tried to convince party leaders in China to make financial sector changes. The new leadership of Jinping-Li Keqiang has now adopted most of the road map and priorities drawn up by Xiaochuan. The first is bank deposit insurance, which would especially protect small depositors and provide a basis for new private banks to compete with large state owned banks, creating competition in the financial sector. By supporting creation of privately owned banks impetus could be given to loans to the private sector to rebalance the economy away from state owned banks and state owned enterprises. This is a key goal in the road map drawn up by the think tank Development Research Center (DRC) which has the backing of premier Li Keqiang. Competition from new private banks would let banks compete to offer higher rates to depositors, another goal. In a September article for the Communist Party Seeking Truth magazine, Zhou pointed out the pressing need for " supporting private capital to set up private banks and guide them to position themselves in serving small and micro companies." These new companies especially in tech and information technology fields can be the new drivers for growth in the future as the burst of infrastructure building generated growth slows down. The one area Zhou faces resistance is his idea of opening up China to foreign capital inflows and outflows. Here critics,including younger economists, say this protected China in the Asian financial markets crisis of 1997, and would protect China in the event it faces outflows of the type that are happening in India in 2013 after the U.S. Fed's plan to withdraw from its quantitative easing. Xiaochuan sees the flow of foreign capital as another way for capital to flow to new private companies and balance away from the state owned enterprises, and for China's savers to be able to obtain more attractive returns. Zhou says his plan would include the option for China to reintroduce capial controls in a crisis. As China's debt to GDP ratio is set on a trajectory to approach the levels reached in Japan before its banking crisis there is greater awareness from party leaders about the need for prudence. Xiaochuan has worked with party leader Jinping's key economic advisor Liu He for years, and has the support of He and Jinping for introducing deposit insurance as a top priority. President Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang see the need for Xiaochuan's experience and foresight "as a talent who can be counted on," as the sense of importance of changing the economic structure has deepened in 2013. Mandatory retirement for Xiaochuan at 65 was set aside to give him a third five year term, and his road map long ignored by former premier Wen Biao, is now at the top of China's agenda. ...

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Fred Hiatt of The Washington Post describes U.S. president Obama's mishandling of Syria during his second term as president leading to the situation today.