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To president Joe Biden the Democrats instincts of FDR and Truman, with the focus on building better lives for workers and families, comes naturally. Biden takes the Democratic Party back to what it was in the 1930's to the 1960's. Just today the Labor Department showed 336,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 3.8% for 2 years, 32 months of jobs growth. Brooks offers a clue on how this is happening- president Biden has aggressively directed American capital and resources to where it is needed most, in counties red or blue where economic growth has suffered in the past. Yet 57% of people polled cited by Brooks say the economy is in poor shape. There are another 14 months to go and the economy will get even stronger with the capital allocation and Biden economic policies of Build Better and America First. Workers and families will see real and tangible improvements in their lives in 2024.

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Melanie Garson, professor at University College, London, says attention was diverted to expansionist settler programs in the West Bank leading to lax efforts for security on the border with Gaza. Parties on the right controlled the key ministry of Defense and their priorities were the West bank diverting resources,  say experts in this France24 report. Warnings were ignored from the Army, and from Egypt, according to this report. Garson says it will be very hard for Netanyahu to avoid responsibility for not having the mechanisms in place to protect people on the border with Gaza. On this page a former prime minister of Israel who had reached an agreement with Abbas of the Palestinian Authority for peaceful coexistence of the Jewish and Palestinian reflects on that progress and its disruption by rocket attacks from Gaza by Hamas leading to the Gaza war in 2006, 17 years earlier. The patterns are similar with the Israelis and  Palestinians close to an agreement but not going the last mile and external forces disrupting the process at the last moment. ...

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Hillary Clinton responds to a question from a 15 year old school girl in a Pennsylvania suburb of Haverford, who spoke about the damage done by Trump's crude comments about women. The girl Brennan Leach, asked Hillary Clinton, how Mrs. Clinton could help girls understand that they are much more than their looks. Clinton told the girl that "many women online were being bullied," and that this had to stop. She told the largely female crowd in Haverford gym that "Lets be the best we can be. Lets be proud of who we are."  The girl Brennan had lost a friend to suicide last year, and was especially concerned about the effect on girls of bullying at a period of middle and high school, which is a sensitive time for girls growing up. Trump had made many disparaging comments about women during the entire election campaign in 2016, without the kind of media sense of shock that one would have expected for such comments during previous moments in American history. ...

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The DW.com's Christoph Strack says its a good sign that chancellor Merkel of Germany is opening up and showing emotions. She was decisive in the way she presented herself and what she has learned in the past 12 months since the refugee crisis erupted in summer 2015. She expressed her sense that she had "an absolutely sure feeling" that Germany will emerge out of all this better "than when we went into it." The remarks at Konrad-Adenauer-Haus for thirteen minutes were unusual and open in sharing how she felt. She said she is "fully committed" to making sure that the situation of 2015 never happens again. Don't count Merkel out, says Strack, she is down but not out, because she is going through the weaknesses in her policy, weakness in communication, and reflecting on her mistakes. And she has shown defiance and resolve, as she prepares for 2017, and its for everything she believes in.

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Roland Nelles gives 6 reasons why chancellor Merkel is likely to run for chancellor in 2017 and do well. Nelles says the alternative is a Greens, Left party, SPD coalition as in Berlin. But the rest of Germany is too conservative and the very idea of that coalition could bring conservatives together behind Merkel, including the CSU. It would give CDU voters second thoughts about switching to the anti-immigrant AfD party. Also important he says is that the immediacy of the refugee issue could fade as the German government better handles the refugee situation, including security, housing and integration. And as the agreement with Turkey is holding for controlling flow of refugees and turning them back. Also compared to SPD Merkel is still 8-10 points ahead in polls today says Nelles, so that there are still many Merkel supporters. In addition to what Nelles says, Strack in DW.com points out how Merkel's openness even showing emotions sometimes, about how the refugee crisis caught her and the German government unprepared, could help her in coming months. ...

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Google has come out firmly on the side of parents struggling to deal with schooling at home for children, with social distancing during the pandemic, as it supports working from home all the way till summer of 2021. For 200,000 full time and contract Google employees is sure to offer some relief.  Sundar Pichai the Alphabet CEO made the decision after a debate in Google Leads a small group of executives at the company.  Mr. Pichai told staff " I hope this will offer the flexibility you need to balance work with taking care of yourselves and your loved ones over the next 12 months."  He was especially concerned about parents trying to tackle schooling of children. The surge of the pandemic in California where Google is located is likely to have convinced Google executives that this was the right step, with no vaccine in sight, and the possibility of a second wave after this one. Remote work has also proved to be effective in the software industry, creating this option. ...

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America whether under Eisenhower or under Truman, Johnson or Reagan embodied some measure of fairness and good sense. How this was lost when it comes to pharmaceutical pricing under Bush in 2003 and Obama in 2008 is shown here in a WSJ podcast. Bush and Republican allowed Medicare to pay for pharmaceuticals yet taking away its right to negotiate prices. Obama and Democrats in 2008 this podcast shows allowed the Bush introduced violation of good financial common sense to continue in exchange for support for Obamacare from the manufacturers. Over 15 years by 2019 pharmaceutical costs soared and remaining goodwill withered, this podcast shows. During this same period the financial industry went through a similar cycle and with it the ideas of a free market economy. The free market economy like everything else in life depended on good common sense, and a sense of how it benefits all, as both Adam Smith and the country's principal founders constantly reminded people.      ...

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Egypt accepts a $8 billion IMF loan. It also free floats its currency and the Egyptian pound goes from 30 to the US dollar to 49 to the dollar. Houthi attacks from Yemen on Red Sea shipping affects Egypt as fewer ships transit through the Suez Canal and lower transit fees and revenues that affect the economy, in addition to the economic conditions of the whole region including Israel deteriorating from the Gaza war. There is also pressure on Egypt with the possibility of Gaza refugees crossing the border. Wealthy Gulf neighbors that supported Egypt's finances were reluctant to continue support leading to the IMF loan. UAE ADQ fund asked for currency to float freely if it was to invest $35 billion in northern Egypt. Inflation is at 30% and this WSJ report says even before this weeks fall of the pound the currency had already lost half its value. Interest rates increased to 27% from 21%.  This has increased poverty in Egypt and inflation is reducing standards of living. ...

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Maggie Haberman has covered Donald Trump from the period before he ran for president in 2016. Here she looks back at this period and reflects on the trial in New York with Judge Merchan, the campaign trail, and reflects on what it all means today to the people of the 51 states. She says it shows a former president who sees his best days in the 1980's when the Trump Tower was built, the connections with the New York elites who at once ignored and embraced this new view of the world and a place for greed in this world. It is also a period that began with Reagan Bush and the start of the Iran Iraq wars, the Bush war in Afghanistan, the Clinton embrace of economics that led to decline in US manufacturing, the 2009 financial crisis and Obama's continued war in Afghanistan- a period of decline in standard of living of the American people and failure to invest in essential infrastructure to improve quality of living.

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How will the rise of renewables solar, wind and hydropower, nuclear change the demand and supply of oil and gas by 2030? How will this affect producers such as Russia, Saudis/UAE, and the US? And how will it affect China and India and the US? This question is answered by the new IEA forecast model that shows the demand at 105 million barrels a day in 2030, and supply at 113 million barrels a day, showing that renewable will have increased by 2030 to produce an oversupply of oil and gas. After 2031 this gap will widen and grow so that oil and gas prices will drop. This will accelerate the growth of India and China. Indian prime minister Modi tells people in towns across the country that the government will help people to put solar panels on homes so that instead of paying an oil and gas bill the energy generated from solar and added to the grid will give them a check every month to add to income.

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Higher savings, covid assistance checks, and cheap credit led to higher consumer spending in the second half of 2020. This lasted through the higher inflation in 2022 when consumer spending outpaced inflation by two percentage points. The share of monthly income set aside for savings dropped from a high in April 2020, to 7.5% in December 2021, to 3.4% in December 2022. This is rapidly reversing with increase in mortgage rates and interest rates by the Fed to 4.75%, home and car sales the lowest in a decade. Inflation is at 5% year over year and wages up 4.6% in December year over year. The labor market is tight with about 10 million unfilled jobs and unemployment at 3.4%. Tech and other companies that overly expanded during the pandemic and are under antitrust oversight are laying off some employees. A recession is possible but this depends on how Jay Powell at the Fed reads the employment situation so that it brings down inflation but not so much that it hurts American workers. ...

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One in every 12 women or 2 million will be a victim of some form of sexual violence in England and Wales every year a police chiefs  report says. One in 20 adults or 2.3 million will be perpetrators.The alarming scale of violence against women and girls is shown in the national analysis for England and Wales of the National Police Chiefs Council. Violence against women has grown 37% over 5 years. Two million women are affected, says NPCC, from stalking, harrassment, sexual assault and domestic violence. And people involved are getting younger. Police chiefs are demanding that tech companies take down extreme material and warning about the influencers who are "radicalizing" men online. The attitude and culture towards violence in general has deteriorated in the UK and the US, and the violence against women of this magnitude shows that a lot of work will be needed to change this attitude and culture. It truly is a National Emergency in the UK and in the US. ...

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The most remarkable gain for Harris is among the group that the Opportunity Economy does the most, the group that has the most to gain from The New Way Forward proposed by Harris. It is the 25-34 years age group where Harris as gained 12 percentage points. By effectively getting the message of Opportunity and looking to the future this gain has potential to be expanded.   Harris has gained among groups the Democrats needed to do most from lower income workers who were supporting Trump and Rural voters. Among Rural Voters 3 percentage points. Among people making less than $25K 20 percentage points, and for people making $50-$100K 3 percentage points. Among Trump 2020 voters 2 percentage points. The biggest gains is in group called Somewhat unfavorable view of Trump where Harris has gained 46 percentage points. These are also Republicans like the ones that voted for Nikki Haley and Republicans who fear the chaos of a personality focused presidency.   ...

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Kamala Harris says she will tackle immigration head-on at the Arizona rally August 10, 2024. She said she would Pass the Lankford- Biden Immigration Bill and sign it into law. It is the bill that passed the Senate and was given no chance in the House because of it being opposed by Trump for use as an election issue.

Harris said-

“I was attorney general of a border state. I went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and the human traffickers. I prosecuted them in case after case and I won, so I know what I’m talking about.”

“He talks a big game about border security but he does not walk the walk."

“We know our immigration system is broken and we know what it takes to fix it: comprehensive reform. That includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship,” 

 

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Biden joins Harris at an event in Largo, Maryland on August 15 2024, the first time president Biden joins Harris for a rally after Harris takes on the role of nominee. Biden is sort of on this ticket as the nominee Harris's mentor and colleague. Harris runs on Biden's achievements and the president will forever be part of the Harris team with experience to get important legislation through Congress in the years ahead. At the rally Biden and Harris focus on cost of living and how Medicare now brings down prices of out of control pharmaceuticals. President Biden is the first president to restore Medicare's right and obligation to the American people to negotiate fair prices for pharmaceuticals. This right and obligation was stripped from Medicare by the younger president Bush in one of the worst decisions of a Republican president since World War II, causing terrible hardship from corporate greed to hard working American families. 

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DJT plans an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports to the US for its role in not shutting off the fentanyl flows. This is part of overall tariff action on CMC countries for their role in the flow of fentanyl to the US for which they did not take the necessary action to close this.  Business in the US as expressed in the WSJ says the tariffs are wrong. Who is in the right? DJT says on his site "they are so-ooo wrong." Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, calls the  DJT fentanyl tariffs on CMC (Canada Mexico China) as part of domestic policy. It is not economic policy but domestic action to protect the rights of Americans to live freely without drugs and gangs, without fentanyl flows in their neighborhoods just as China protects its neighborhoods and its people, the government fulfilling its most important  responsibilities for safety of its citizens, its families and children, the social compact itself. ...

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What US companies did not get early on is that as China's economy advanced local companies could make the same products for less and innovate to take a big share of the market. Ford exited China and GM took  $5 billion charge on its China business. Chinese makers of cars, EV's, laptops and cell phones have the major share of the market. In 2024 US companies chastened by their experience and failing to compete in China are reticent about tariffs impacting their market share in China. Other reasons China was growing at over 10% in the last year of Obama's second term. In 2024 China is struggling to reach 5%.  Following Covid, housing industry collapse, as US and Europe block China's exports, China's public is growing wary of spending. There are only 800 Americans studying in China in 2024 compared to 11,000 in 2019. There are 290,000 Chinese students in US. ...

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Pierre Poilievre gained prominence when he supported the Canadian truckers strike in 2022.  That year he was elected leader of the of the Conservatives party of Canada. In March 2022 the Conservative party crossed the Liberals with popularity at 32%. The NDP coalition ally of the Liberals was at 17%. Starting March 2024 the Liberals took a huge slide in the polls to 25% with Conservatives gaining to reach 42%.  The issues about cost of living, the Border and transgender culture issues resonate in Canada in the same way that they do with Americans. Voters say they can't afford gas at the pump and groceries. Pierre Poilevre has emerged as a leader of Conservatives at a point when for the first time since the 1980's it has a 20% point margin over the Liberals and Trudeau. There is also the issue of who will be best at negotiating on the tariffs issue with the DJT administration in the US. DJT does not take Trudeau seriously calling Canada the 51st state. ...

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The American pope's brother is John Prevost, 71 years, a school educator and principal, who lives in New Lenox, a community of 27,000 people 40 miles southwest of Chicago. He says of his borhter who was with him at his home for a couple of weeks last August 2024- "The best way I could describe him right now is that he will be following in Francis’ footsteps, they were very good friends. They knew each other before he was pope, before my brother even was bishop.” Pope Francis (Bergoglio) made the new American Pope bishop of a small Peruvian town in 1998, then archbishop and cardinal in Peru, before he returned to the US in 2014. At that time the new pope drove a white pickup truck to carry food and blankets to remote regions in the Andes mountains of Peru. Francis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, and the new pope have a passion for seeing to the needs of the poor and the forgotten in society. ...

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The resignation of Jerry Yang, co-founder of Yahoo, from his positions at the company on Jan. 17, 2012. Yahoo hired a new CEO, Scott Thompson, from eBay's Pay Pal unit n 2011. Yang started Yahoo with David Filo. They setup "David & Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web," a list of favorite websites, as computer science students at Stanford in 1995. What followed was a trajectory similiar to the one observed today for Facebook- by 1999 the company was valued at $120 billion in the dot com bubble. A decade later Google, a newcomer with a search algorithm, replaced Yahoo as the most widely used search engine. Yahoo and its peer site AOL from the 1990's never recovered from the technological change in the internet with broadband and a new generation of search engines. Yang holds a 3.8% stake in Yahoo. Yahoo has a 40% stake in Ali Baba, which was formed when Yahoo turned over its Chinese operations to Ali Baba in exchange for a large stake in operations. Yahoo is planning to sell its stake in Ali Baba....

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Issues raised by the huge mismatch between revenues and investment for AI. $400 billion estimated investment by 5 Tech firms in 2025 alone with revenue of about $40 billion and huge uncertainty about when AI will produce returns. Articles seen this week of November 17 in the WSJ and NYT on this issue, podcasts, discussions in other media outlets. Could this lead to a dot com bubble type economic crisis? Could that lead to a recession? Alongside these articles another article in the WSJ on Nov 17 shows the benefits small firms get by using AI, benefits which are on the fringes of their business, not essential but with some experimenting firm owners/managers able to tweak AI information for use in business. Nothing significant which firms will pay much money for. The uncertainty is a major factor. Should geopolitics trump all these concerns? Is the competition with China require this scale of investment, and is China following a more utilitarian approach as reported in a WSJ article this month, of investing in AI in a utilitarian way targeting its use in improving manufacturing, improving infrastructure, and not wildly throwing money at experimental uses that are unlikely to yield much result. In geopolitical sense would the country that not only promoted AI but used it efficiently and cost effectively, used it in ways that promote the overall public good, get the WIN. In short it behooves everyone of us to ask hard questions of AI, to dehype the hype, to look for the public good that comes out of this from it's efficient use. To ask the tough questions when $400 billion generates only $40 billion in 2025 and the $3 trillion planned investment over 5 years is half unfunded, is it going to crowd out energy needs for homes and business, push renewable energy targets back, crowd out essential investments in the crumbling aging infrastructure of the US and Europe, crowd out essential investments in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, that hold better promise for our People. Will it also put retirees at risk when corporate bonds from retirees money fund the unfunded portion of AI? This means making the political dimension not about migration, settling the illegal migration issue that was meant to be settled a long time back, or about cultural issues that have little day to day impact on our lives which are about groceries, childcare, housing that are non ideological. Making the political dimension not about remote countries that one knows little about except when it affects public safety and health as with fentanyl. Capital allocation decisions to the vital needs of America can then be free of politically induced error, so that it can be subjected to the test of how best it serves the public interest and the people of the Nation. ...

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Jerry Brown Attorney General of California and Lisa Madigan Attorney General of Illinois led the negotiations on behalf of the states of California, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Washington, Arizona, Texas, Florida and North Carolina, Connecticut, against predatory lending by Countrywide and obtained a settlement of $8.4 billion for homeowners. Shows that states efforts can be effective where the federal government failed. Brown expects loan modifications worth $3.4 billion in California. Congress has proposed various programs but none made it through the legilative process, so this is the largest most comprehensive mandatory loan workout program that exists. The program will be mandatory and will be monitored by state officials. Bank of America owns Countrywide which it acquired and it says that it had anticipated and made allowance for this kind of settlement. Borrowers whose first payment was due between Jan1, 2004 and Dec 31, 2007 can participate. The loan balance must be at least 75% of the current value of the home and the borrower must be able to make the adjusted monthly payments. It will focus on borrrowers who were placed int he riskiest loans because of Countrywide's misleading and predatory lending practices. Under the program Countrywide will reduce laon balances in some and cut interest rates in others. Rates could decline to 2.5% depending on borrowers ability to pay and remain at that level 5 years. Help is also provided for those facing foreclosure or are 4 months behind in their payments and homeowners already foreclosed....

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Reports from the Sixth China North-South Lung Cancer Summit meeting of 300 experts focusses on controlling tobacco use and promoting early detection and treatment of lung cancer. Lung cancer is now the leading form of cancer in China, with 22.7% of cancer deaths each year. Currently about 1 million die in China from smoking related illness each year. CCTV reports this is increasing by 26.9% a year. Causes cited are aging population, air pollution, and widespread smoking. About one in three of China's people smoke, or about 350 million. Awareness of the dangers of tobacco use is not high outside two or three major cities. China manufactures about 1.7 trillion cigarettes a year, according to CCTV, and tobacco contributes 7-10 percent of state revenues.