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Hong Kong's new chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, is intervewed by the WSJ's Te-Ping Chen, Jeffrey Ng, and Robert Thomson. He was elected by 1200 business and political leaders in 2012. The term ends in 2017, by which time China says it will hold direct elections with universal suffrage in Hong Kong. Leung plans pro-growth policies and says Hong Kong's growth rate of about 4% for the last two decades lags too far behind Singapore's over 6% growth rate. No action is planned to reduce property prices by providing new land supply. He sees more room for growth in maritime insurance and ship financing services to complement Hong Kong's development as a global shipping center, citing London as an example. To improve the problem of cramped housing space and small apartments he is looking at ways to build new towns in the New Territories, which are on the border with mainland China. Leung will not change Hong Kong's flat tax structure, and is not going to follow Singapore's example in granting tax holidays. Growth in China will be about 7% in 2012, and future growth will depend on how fast China shifts from export led growth to domestic consumption....

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Two weeks after his election Donald Trump says the U.S. will not join the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement during his term in office. Barack Obama took seven years to negotiate the trade agreement which was opposed by trade unions, the auto industry and was unpopular in the midwestern U.S. because of the impact of trade in hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Here Frank Sieren of the DW.com points out that the agreement was not really about trade, as most of the gains of trade had already been realized according to experts. It was part of the "pivot to Asia" to maintain American dominance in the region, says Sieren. After China pulled together some Asian and European countries into its trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. pushed for TPP as a counterweight to the China sponsored trade zone. China says it will try to integrate the countries in TPP into the trade zone it has sponsored. President Trump has said that the U.S. is better off negotiating agreements with each country and not getting into multilateral trade agreements. He fought the election campaign on the basis of the opposition to TPP and trade agreements that unfairly hurt American workers. This could have provided the 110,000 margin of victory in the states suffering from the hollowing out in manufacturing such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A similar hollowing out in Ontario favored Justin Trudeau's Liberals against the Conservatives in Canada's election. ...

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China's premier Wen is critical of China's large state owned banks for blocking reforms. In recent months there is growing sentiment against the large state owned banks because of the large profits made and the low interest on customer deposits for savers. The guaranteed spread between deposit and lending rates is about 3 percentage points giving the banks easy profits. China's largest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank, show combined profits of $99 billion. These four banks and the Bank of Communications, China Development Bank, Postal Savings Bank, combined control 55% of all outstanding loans in China, and lend mostly to large state owned enterprises.

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The Chevy Volt GM's plug in electric car comes out in 2010. Toyota plans to bring its plug in electric car in late 2009. A company in China, BYD, has already come out with an electric car, the F3DM, priced at 150,000 yuan or $22,000. By contrast the Chevy Volt is expected to be priced at $40,000 when it comes out in 2010. Essentially this gives the market leadership to BYD, because it would have 2 years of experience with its cars on the road, and $40,000 is just not a commercially viable price if a competitor can sell it for half the price. So how does BYD do it? Wang Chuanfu is founder and chairman of BYD Co. a battery and car maker. BYD has built up low cost, high quality and highly motivated research and development capabilities. Wang put together about 10,000 technicians and engineers, many fresh out of colleges and technical schools in China. As it learns the efficiencies of manufacturing and design it is able to bring this to bear on the H3DM improvement, for introduction of other new electric car models. And this technical capacity comes at a much lower cost in China compared to western countries. Wang's focus on this area making it possible to price at $22,000. The CEO of Mid American an Iowa based energy producer with majority stake ownership of Warren Buffett, was attracted to BYD for this very reason, and bought a 10% stake in BYD for $230 million. Wang believes there is a more level playing field in electric cars because of the simplicity of their design and fewer parts, making for a faster move up the learning curve. Electric cars have just 2 motors (45 parts each) and 2 gearboxes (60 parts each), a total of 210 parts excluding nuts and bolts. BYD's gasoline car the F6 has 1400 powertrain parts, 840 parts for the V6 and for transmission 560 parts. Says Wang, this puts all of us on the same starting line. The F3DM is the first real electric car being able to go for 60 miles exclusively on electricity on a full charge. A car that can go 180 miles on one full charge called the BYD e6 is planned for 2009. BYD uses iron-phosphate technology which is safer because of stable chemicals and less chance of fire from overheating. This is a key criteria for this lithium ion battery technology for cars. The Chevy Volt battery being developed by A123 company at MIT uses a similiar technology. BYD started with lithium ion battery development years ago. Its founder Mr Wang was fascinated by batteries when he studied metallurgical physics and chemistry in the mid 1980's for his Masters degree. He found a research position at the General Research Institute of Nonferrous Metals in Beijing, then decided to form his own company BYD in 1995, to develop lithium ion batteries with about 20 engineers. Experience was gained selling batteries to Samsung, Nokia and Motorola. In 2002 the company went public on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Wang was attracted to the idea of electric cars at this early stage even though he did not know how to drive. In 1998, says Wang, he had his engineers start upscaling development from cellphone battery technology to electric car battery technology. At the same time to pursue his vision for the development of electric cars Wang made the decision to learn car development by making and selling gasoline cars. The first car was a small sedan called the F3 brought out in 2005. By the last quarter of 2008 the F3 was one of China's best selling automobiles. Demand for BYD's F3 and F10 models is growing even as car sales are dropping in China, helping BYD to gain in car sales relative to Cherry Automobile and Geely Holding, two of the largest competitors. ...

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Lower reserve capital ratios of China's mid-size banks, Citic, Mingsheng, China Merchants bank falling below the Basel III requirements of Tier 1 capital ratios- mostly common equity- of at least 8.5% of assets by 2018, 9.5% for systemically important banks. In comparison the higher capital ratios exceeding Basel III requirements of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank of China, the large state owned banks. The situation is worse when one considers that these midsized banks have tried to grow aggressively taking on credit risks beyond their capacity. China Merchants Bank has off-balance sheet wealth management products, high interest deposits invested in riskier assets of $83.7 billion at the end of Sept 2013, equivalent to 200% of shareholders equity.

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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Japanese carmakers are still recovering from the loss of sales in China's market after the dispute over the Senkaku islands, and are losing ground to GM, VW and other carmakers in the interior of the country.

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Following the fifth North Korean nuclear test DW.com talks with Rudiger Frank about the test and what this means. Frank says the negotiations with North Korea and efforts to limit the program so far have been a colossal failure. Tests have continued and without a change in strategy more tests will be followed by the usual condemnations by world leaders and further sanctions. Frank says this change in strategy would include recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, and getting North Korea to ensure the weapons are safe and secure in the country, getting a clear idea of what and where the weapons are. The International Atomic Agency would be asked to go in and make inspections. The next step would be to freeze the program at some level agreed to. This is a tough step to take but it only recognizes the reality of the situation, and continued development by North Korea of nuclear weapons if no steps for change are taken. 

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China's campaign against corruption and the popular programs that the Chinese government of Jinping encourages on television. This includes the 52 part series on television called "In the Name of the People." The programs show how the Communist party's upright officials stand up against the corrupt ones. The idea is to build up the reputation of the Communist Party, as it sagged under the previous administrations during the period of rapid growth when such behaviour was tolerated to in some ways.

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China's domestic debt has surged to levels that precede a crisis, to 216% of GDP and heading for 271% by 2017 according to Fitch Ratings. As a result president Jinping has taken over control of economic policy and controlling debt, especially local government debt, is now a top priority for 2014. Jinping will head the "leading group" for overall top down reforms, reflecting the new urgency. Local government debt went up 67% from 10.7 trillion yuan to 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.95 trillion) in just 3 years from 2010 to 2013, according to the National Audit Office. About half of this debt is due by the end of 2014, according to Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green. Another risk is that shadow banking with interest rates of 10% are now about 11% of new lending. The option adopted by the government to use central government funds and regulation to restrict lending could make local governments turn increasingly to the shadow bank lenders (trust companies, and informal lenders) making things worse. The other option of tackling it aggressively by letting some companies default has the risk of other lenders raising rates on loans and bonds. This makes solutions tricky and prone to problems of increasing severity. ...

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With a credit led expansion, and credit flowing as rapidly as in 2009, China faces some difficult choices in 2010. Inflation's annual rate rose to 4.4% in October 2010 from 3.6% in September. China's CPI target is 3%. October 2010 saw an additional $89 billion of new loans, and China is floating on a sea of credit. The question is how econmic growth can be maintained once this slows.

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This editorial in the New York Times points out that the new president of the ANC party -that runs South Africa and has a monopoly of power in the post Apartheid years, under Mandela, Mbeki and Zuma- faces a uphill task as the ANC remains deeply divided after supporting Mr. Zuma in office till the very end. Apart from the stagnant economy, there are challenges the ANC faces in the lethargy of the post Apartheid years, and the culture of corruption, and patronage management that led to mismanagement of state enterprises.

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Hillary Clinton attacks Trump's policies in an address in Warren, Michigan, saying this was another version of failed trickle down economics. She called Trump's idea of taxing pass through entities such as small business reporting business income on individual tax returns at 15%, as a "Trump loophole." On trade policy Hillary Clinton said she would oppose the TPP or Trans- Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement that president Obama has supported. She put it flatly- " I oppose it now. I'll oppose it after the election, and I'll oppose it as president." And pointed out that too many companies have moved jobs overseas and "moved operations overseas and sold back into the U.S." after pushing for trade deals. The answer she said 'is not to rant and rave- or to cut us off from the world," in reference to protectionist policies Trump has supported. 

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Note that Goldman Sach's analysts who first predicted that oil prices could reach $100 are now predicting that the downward momentum is building up. The prediction from them now is that prices may go up further than the $96 right now but should drop to $80 by April. Its not too difficult to see why. First on the supply side the momentum for downward shift is not so significant but still there are signs. The Iraqi oil flow disruption either from a Turkish invasion of norther Iraq or from internal disruption is shrinking as the Turks see this as a small operation at most, and the Iraqi law and order situation is improving. The Iranian situation may be stabilizing without US intervention possibilities shrinking. On the supply side the oil majors except for Total see their output shrinking somewhat, and OPEC has not increased supplies significantly as oil inventories have not built up as they do before winter. But overall the supply situation is stable. On the demand side is where the significant downward momentum exists. With the US economy slowing down amid the buildup of the housing tumble and the credit crunch which looks to get worse in 2008 before stabilizing in 2009 and a stronger euro and other factors affecting Europe's expansion oil consumption by industry in the industrialized countries is slowing. Much of the pressure on oil prices comes from increases in demand each year from China and India. Here gasoline is subsidized by the government and this reduces incenive for conservation. The policy of letting market prices be reflected at the pump to a limited degree so as not to seriously affect people is now taking hold in these countries. In China prices were raised 10% and there is likely to be further increase in the near future. This along with the increasing awarenes of the dependence on foreign oil and the need for conservation in both China and India should build pressures in both countries to make the best use of resoures and have users share some of the burden of higher prices. The American and European gasoline market is driven by a public that has not been too conscious of conservation especially in America. It appears that high oil prices have not encouraged conservation, witness that with rebates for higher oil prices and zero interest rates financing large pickups are still selling at levels of 2005, and there has not been a significant reduction in consumption at the pump. What may shift this equation now is probably government mandated fuel economy standards. Europe already has new standards and the automakers there are racing to meet it with new technologies, in America its now almost certain that public sentiment and congressional sentiment is likely to lead to similiar standards or at least significantly improved standard. Public sentiment is already pushing the automakers in the USA to introduce new models with higher fuel economy and use this as a n advertising and competitive edge. This reduction in gasoline consumption at the pump through new technologies in the industrialized countries and through price increases being allowed to flow through in the developing countries of China and India in a stable supply environment where the downward political risks are stable may be the pivotal turning point for the price of oil. ...

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Hernandez and Qin provide this exceptional account of the thoughts and feelings of the 150 million young people in China who are single children of parents, through intervews and description of this generation in Chinese media. Local media calls this generation very lonely because of the lack of a brother or sister, without cousins, uncles and aunts. These children were doted on by their parents and have grown up in an unususal way because of the extraordinary attention they received- unlike what is happening throughout the rest of the world. Were they lucky? Not really, because they now have to face the burden of supporting aging parents alone, without the help of siblings. And for the policymakers there is another shock of realizing that such a precipitate action of a one-child policy from 1990 onwards may have undermined other goals by creating a rapidly aging population and shrinking workforce to support them, especially when Latin America and other poor countries with high birth rates have seen these birth rates plummet over time as living standards and education improved. A 2013 study by Australian researchers shows these children having tendency to show selfishness, pessimism and risk aversion. The other shock for policymakers is that the cost of getting a good education and the scarce number of places in good schools, is leading parents to not have that second child. ...

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The campaign rhetoric for renegotiating NAFTA and building a wall at the border has had a sharply negative effect on growth in Mexico. Growth slowed in 2016 and is expected to be close to zero in 2017 with declining foreign investment in the economy. The uncertainty is leading to sharp decline in foreign direct investment of 24% in the first 9 months of 2016, according to the Bank of Mexico. Further declines can be expected in 2017. The decline in the value of the peso of 16% since May 2016 has led to 6 interest rate increases in the past year. Inflation on annual basis was at 4.72% in Jan. 2017 and is rising. As Mexico depends on exports for one third of its output growth, and 80% is sent to the U.S., there is a need to diversify with trade agreements made with the European Union and other countries. Mexicans now question the value of NAFTA trade agreement as average growth of 2.6 since NAFTA was signed is below the 4.6% in the 2 decades prior to that. And poverty level is the same with about 60% of people in the underground economy. In addition crime, drug trade, a weak education system, weak rule of law, political corruption, show that Mexico has not made the progress since NAFTA that it should have made. ...