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Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the result of changes in supply chains away from China, and the new trading relationship with China to 2028. He says the shift to a new global supply chain that diversifies it away from concentration in China is taking place. Would taking the tariffs from 30% to 60% under a new Trump administration be a good idea? Greg Ip thinks it is a bad idea as the change is gradual and is actually taking place. It may have the unintended effect of worsening US China relations essential for global stability when it is coupled with erratic or retaliatory rhetoric. Rhetoric that appears to China that it is being singled out in world trade beyond what are changes that have taken place with Japan in the past in trade. The Biden administration is for good reasons working to restore a balanced yet stable relationship with China. Apple is shifting production of 25% of iPhones to India. Samsung is investing more in Vietnam. The trade deficit with Mexico has reached $151 billion twice as large as in 2017. And $100 billion with Vietnam three times as large as 2017. The US trade deficit with China has dropped from $381 billion to $281 billion in the last 12 months, the Commerce Department reports show. And from $1.1 trillion with the whole world from $1.2 trillion for the last 12 months, 4% of US GDP. Overall the Trump era tariffs of 30% have not reduced the US  trade deficit substantially but has shifted American and European foreign investment to India, Vietnam, Mexico and other countries as well as to the home country. Over time the supply chain would become truly diversified as India makes great strides to become the third largest economy with new infrastructure by 2030. The head emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, Joerg Wuttke, says the pressure to export will be high for China as its economy shifts more to manufacturing from construction. Most Chinese companies are producing more than internal demand in China, and most companies in solar are losing money, in wind turbines and solar all are losing money, Wuttke says. This means China will double down and increase its investments in Mexico, Vietnam, Morocco and other countries so that it can send its products to the US through third countries that do the final export. One expert even says removing a few screws here and some there, find a different supplier, and shipping to a third party for final export that makes it not 100% Chinese content, the pressure for that is high. ...

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In nominal terms China's currency, the yuan, appreciated by 3.7% in 2011. The real effective exchange rate, measured on a trade weighted basis and adjusted for relative consumer prices is the more significant rate. The real rate shows the yuan up by 5.3% in 2011, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In November 2011 the yuan appeared to be weakening, and China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, says China wants to see the renminbi more flexible "in either direction."

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This report in The Times take a look at the work Liz Truss has done as International Trade Secretary and now Foreign Secretary. Truss does not want Britain to become economically dependent on China. More than Johnson Truss is a UK Atlanticist who wants the UK to work with the US and the EU to build a western world that is entirely independent of China. Looking at her work and experience it would appear that Truss is the most underestimated of the candidates for prime minister, much more so than Sunak. She can be strident and aggressive but she has gone through a process of thinking and studying before that with a willingness to try new ideas. She come from an intellectual  family and one that was active in left wing activism. She studied at a comprehensive school in Leeds before going to Merton College Oxford  to study philosophy, economics and politics, and was willing to change her thinking when persuaded about a different course of action to get better results. She also gained the knowledge she needs to do her own thinking with experience first hand as Chief Secretary at Treasury, Secretary of International Trade, and as Foreign Secretary, getting trade deals with Australia and negotiating with other countries. Cameron, May, Johnson lacked this kind of knowledge and experience. And Sunak also falls way short of this kind of knowledge acquired and experience handling international assignments key to Britain's advancement after Brexit. ...

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High level Swiss business team negotiators reach agreement with US for 15% tariffs in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US by 2028. One third of this investment has to take place in 2026. The Swiss business team met with DJT at the White House. 

Swiss will remove taxes on US beef and poultry exports. Swiss investments cited by trade negotiator Helene Artieda are plane maker Pilatus to build a US plant, and train maker Stadler to expand operations in Utah.

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Beijing's sensitivity to the Hong kong protests from the ongoing efforts to maintain economic growth in the face of the trade conflict with the U.S. and a tariffs war.

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Efforts to impeach two previous presidents including Democrat Clinton failed in the Senate where the vote requires a two thirds majority. The first impeachment vote against Mr. Trump failed in the Senate. In the House of Representatives only a simple majority is required. Majority Leader McConnell says he will not reconvene the Senate before president Biden takes office. Vice President Pence has refused to invoke the 25th Amendment. House Democrats have moved ahead to vote for impeachment of president Trump for the storming of the Capitol offices in Washington D.C. Their impeachment statement says president Trump's remarks that his supporters had to fight like hell or they would not have a country, constituted incitement of supporters. President Trump won 74 million votes in the last election more than in the 2016 election and lost with Mr. Biden winning 81 million votes after polarization of the country. With such a large portion of the country voting for Mr. Trump Mr. Biden risks his agenda of fighting the pandemic, and other parts of his program, becoming immersed in partisan infighting. This would also result in continuing the division of the country, and continue polarization.  About 5 House Republicans are expected to support impeachment. In the Senate some Republicans say there are impeachable offenses yet only Mr. McConnell and the senator from Utah, Mr. Mitt Romney, favor impeachment.  Mr. Trump's style of governing was controversial from the beginning of his campaign in 2016, strident and taking on critics. He governed through relative moderation compared to his aggressive posture towards critics. For instance on Mexico his remarks offended critics, yet he negotiated a new trade agreement with Mexico replacing NAFTA to ensure worker protections in Mexico, and worker jobs and wages in the U.S. Negotiations with China on trade were conducted by a seasoned veteran, Mr Lighthizer,  who was deputy Trade Representative under Reagan, and negotiated the trade agreement with Japan that worked to reduce Japanese trade surplus in the eighties. On the economy before the pandemic hit in March president Trump made significant progress reducing unemployment.      ...

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Many Russians in Moscow and other cities do not support the invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24 on multiple fronts. There are also 3 million Ukrainians in Russia, and Ukraine neighbors with whom Russia has a close relationship. In this sense the invasion is a strange event, coming more from the failures of leaders from Merkel in Germany, leaders in the US and Russia. And leaders at NATO and the EU (Stoltenberg of Norway and Leyden at EU), the US and Russia, who stuck to positions of strict sanctions and buildup of forces at the border, and did not explore other new approaches for building common ground other than trade and finance. Trade and finance are too fragile and complicated for enduring relationships, the emotional relationship that Adenauer and Brandt built, that post war Russian leaders and American leaders built during those years offered a stronger basis for peace and a better future.

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In this excellent report from the WSJ reporters talk to people in key counties in battleground states. Issues people see as important are covered to get a feel for how they think. The four topics on people's minds are-

1.  Business and the Economy

2.  Race and Policing

3. Climate

4. Agriculture and Trade

5. Coronavirus

President Trump has popular support for work on the economy, and in agriculture and trade. He faces criticism for the surge in the coronavirus cases during the second wave.

States selected for understanding people's views and thinking- In Pennsylvania, Philadelphia county. In Wisconsin, Sauk County. In Michigan Macomb and Wayne counties. In Florida Lee county. In Georgia, Peach county. In North Carolina, Watauga county. In Arizona, Maricopa county. Other states include Maine, Iowa, and Colorado.

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Russian president Putin visit to China covered by NHK's Analysis. This is the first visit after being reelected for Putin. China's president visited European Union countries and Serbia, Hungary recently. China seeks to keep its relations with the EU and stabilize its economic relations with the US because of its weak economy. China benefits with supply of oil at better prices in its trade with Russia that has reached $240 billion, at a time it's economy faces a large debt burden and a collapsing real estate industry. It needs markets in the EU for surging exports of electric vehicles. Russia is also probably reassessing the situation in Ukraine to position itself for an eventual settlement, as China clearly has no interest in the war in Ukraine and seeks to limit any negative fallout from the conflict in its trade and economic relations with EU and US.

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42 year old Jason Smith of Missouri will head the powerful House Ways and Means Committee in the US Congress. He is an ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy and one of the youngest  persons in this position. He will help form new trade, tax and health policies for Republicans.

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China expands the trading range of the yuan to 1%. The yuan is set by the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, at 6.2879 yuan per U.S. dollar on March 14, 2012 or 15 to 16 U.S. cents to the yuan. The yuan rate is set daily by the PBOC, called the parity rate, and was previously allowed to trade in a 0.5% trading range.

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China is focused on getting a trade agreement with the US to continue exporting its overcapacity in manufacturing, which cannot be absorbed in it's domestic market. The EU or the US are the only destinations, but this runs into problems as both the US and EU want China to cut production overcapacity, and will no longer take in Chinese exports that hurt manufacturing communities in EU and US over 25 years since 2000.

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A tiered plan of high low and medium categories for tariffs nations was not adopted after long discussions in favor of individual nation tariffs. This will take much time to implement for the 200 nation staff under Trade Representative Jamieson. First reciprocal tariffs go into effect April 2, 2025 on Mexico and Canada.

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DJT will meet EU's Von der Leyen in Scotland to iron out differences remaining to get to a US EU Trade Deal. Following the one with the UK and Japan this would be a signifcant win for the president and show that his tariff policies are working when flexibility is added and negotiations are speeded up. It also benefits European relations with the US on many fronts, not just in talk as has happened before but in real improvements in sharing of responsibilities.

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Britain and Britain's parliament now faces some tough choices as the economic costs of Brexit are spelled out by government and Bank of England forecasts. Already GDP per person is below what it would have been without the Brexit vote by some 2%, according to the Centre for European Reform think tank. The main problem is the expected drop in trade with the European Union of as much as 40%. Ending free movement also curbs European immigration, and add to this a drop in foreign investment. The government says the cost of the deal with the EU made by prime minister Theresa May could cost 2.7% in loss for GDP per head. Estimates range from 1.7% to 3%. A loss of 3% comes to an average annual loss at 2016 prices of 1090 British pounds per head. Worse a no deal Brexit could see this jump to 8.1%, according to the government. The Bank of England agrees and says the pound would go down by a quarter. Offsets from Britain making free trade deals are pathetically small of only only 0.2% if at all, and o.1% from likely deregulation. Not a picture that makes Brexit anything but a chaotic option for Britain. ...

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Swiss face 39% tariff by US after "disastrous" call by Swiss president to DJT higher even than proposed 31%. Swiss surplus of $46 billion is the issue in US trade. Swiss say they can't import chocolates from the US, the US thinks they can take in oil and LNG. Swiss have not learnt from the UK, EU and Japan, South Korea which came up with solutions to cut deficits with the US, knowing the US was serious to cut it's trade deficits. India faces the same problem as the Swiss, the need to come up with solutions and think that this is a new system of world trade that replaces the old one that lasted for 50 years and is now gone- call it LPF -a level playing field for all countries.

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Even though Brexit is seen as bad for the British economy from a a loss of trade with the EU of as much as 40% and the gains from Brexit that were expected from free trade deals and deregulation too small or illusory, the pro Brexiters soldier on unswayed by this. Prime minister Theresa May is seen as being able to take this deal with the EU through parliament in a second vote after losing the first vote. Behind this thinking are thoughts about how the opposition under Labour and gains made by Labour in a future election could bring together disparate parts of the Conservative party to get this through parliament. The abolishing of free movement between the EU and Britain, is cited as a gain from Brexit. Yet it is this loss of free movement and losses in trade with the EU that are expected to lead to a loss of 3% in GDP per head for every British person, making ordinary British people poorer. In the absence of a Brexit vote Britons would have an additional 2% of GDP per head, according to the Centre for European Reform, a think tank.    ...

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There is a two week period before the 25% tariff on steel coming into the U.S. goes into effect. This gives time for Canada, Mexico, the EU, Japan and other countries to come up with offers to negotiate or as with the EU come up with its own plan to put tariffs on some American goods. An exemption for Canada is supported by the United Steel Workers Union, as many American companies make steel across the borders. Canada sends the most steel and aluminium to the U.S. With the departure of Gary Cohn as economic advisor, Mr. Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative who pushed for the tariff plan becomes a trusted advisor to the President. Lighthizer is to be seen in Lyrarc pages as having consistently supported fair trade and protecting U.S. workers in these situations since his work in the Reagan administration. The other advisors who are ascendent are Peter Navarro, a trade expert, and Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary. Ross is an experienced business veteran in consolidation of steel and auto parts companies, who pushed for a moderate position to renegotiate NAFTA and convinced president Trump to pursue renegotiation instead of rejecting NAFTA following calls from president Nieto of Mexico and Trudeau of Canada. ...

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The Indian Express looks at the impact on children for learning and education of the coronavirus pandemic. More children in areas that have lagged behind economically are unable to read in second grade. In some states the number of children who are not able to read second grade text has more than doubled. This can be seen across other grades.

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It is important to know the cause of 0.3% contraction in first quarter 2025 for US economy. It is says WSJ because of a 5% hit from net exports, the difference between exports and imports, as importers rushed to import more before a tariff deadline. Imports by the US increased by 42% in first quarter 2025. Some include MIchigan Governor Whitmer who supports the tariffs as a way to take back America's industrial base, build factories in the US, say the uncertainty of the way tariffs were implemented is damaging confidence in the economy. For instance could the US have excluded the EU, Japan, UK, India as allies, and focused on China.  The problem with that approach is that it would single out China. It means other nations Japan, South Korea, Germany are not investing in the US, also have used trade for unfair advantage, are not called out. This would put China in an odd position. It is better to call out all who benefited from unfair advantage including China, Germany, Japan South Korea, Taiwan, because this has more credibility, giving all a honest and fair picture that they could then look at themselves in the mirror and correct. In the short run it looks messy, the tariff methods look erratic and back and forth increasing tariffs is also messy and unruy. Yet when every major trading nation knows deep inside that US is only saying it like it is asking only for fairness in trade, it will lead it to negotiate a fair trade agreement with US. ...

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Ahmed Karzai is described as a malevolent force, that he is acting in a Mafialike way, that he lords over southern Afghanistan, and has benefitted from the opium trade. Reporters of the NYT say that according to current and former American officials he gets regular payments from the Central Intelligence Agency and has been for much of the past 8 years.

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Factories with U.S. focused certifications and capital intensive machinery are hard to find in Vietnam, making it harder for companies to shift operations out of China. The trade war and tariffs are leading to a gradual shift in supply chains worldwide, with Vietnam andIndia two destinations for the shift. American manufacturers in China say China has a 15 year head start. A new strategy called China plus 1 is the first stage in this shift of supply chains as companies setup shop in places like Vietnam. India's business climate is more restrictive making Vietnam the first choice for companies looking to diversify production base from China centred manufacturing, as the trade war makes a shift imperative.