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Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson and his negotiating team meet EU president Ursula Leyen for dinner in Brussels on December 8, 2020, to get over fundamental differences for a Brexit deal. This report in The Guardian describes the details of that dinner meeting.  Boris Johnson told parliament that the European Union was asking Britain to be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its own fishing waters. He said the EU was also asking that if the EU were to pass a new law that Britain does not comply with they would have the right to  automatically punish Britain or retaliate. On the issue of environmental and other laws that relate to the EU and Britain they are both at the same level today. The EU is worried that in future competition between Britain and the EU in trade and business Britain could relax environmental or other laws to gain an unfair advantage. Boris Johnson and his Conservative party back benchers insist that Britain should have sole right to make its own laws. France's Macron introduced the idea of automatic retaliation as a way to get Britain to keep a level playing field. Both sides see this as a negotiating tactic, hence the dinner meeting as a way to let top negotiators including the leaders to set an informal tone to the final stage of tough negotiating. Merkel made her own remarks to the German parliament saying she was willing to let the negotiations collapse if Britain rejected the EU approach. Merkel stated that if Britain insisted on certain conditions EU could not accept she was willing to let Britain leave without an exit agreement. This way if something went wrong Merkel would not take the blame.   ...

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The importance of a gap year in education remains underutilized in Indian education because of a lack of role models. A gap year in education during the early college and postgraduate years can give a person new experiences and skills, a new sense of purpose, that he or she may carry over into further education and create additional opportunities over time. In this way the gap year actually reinforces the idea that is behind changes in the way education is being setup today, that encourage young people to try out different subjects in the sciences and the humanities to find what they are best at and where their interests lie. In the same way new experiences including travel, meeting people, trying out new activities can enhance one's personal development and growth as a person.

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Trade and economic relations between Germany and China are deteriorating. See the video on Economy minister Habeck "The Naivety towards China is over," in this DW.com report. Habeck said this at a G7 economy ministers meeting in September- "the naivety towards China is over." Habeck has denied the VW group guarantees for investments in China in May. German companies business in China was supported by government guarantees for exports and investments in China. Germany has about 90 billion euros of investments in China. The relationship began in 1972 when China was a poor developing country, and surged particularly in the Merkel years when China was no longer a developing country. Today Germany and the US face technological competition from China and the reappraisal of global supply chains overly dependent on one country.

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The EU Council meeting shows 85 billion euros of support to Ukraine. It shows EU's continued support for Ukraine and to begin talks for Ukraine's entry into the European Union. This is a remarkable step as the war in Ukraine enters winter 2023-2024. It also shows that the Ukraine conflict has entered a final stage after stalemate in the war in which Russia would control parts of Ukraine in the east and Crimea, and Ukraine enters the European Union. This would meet Ukrainian people's need for sovereignty and lead to the next step of rebuilding and reconstruction of Ukraine. The result of the war are the expansion of NATO to include Sweden and Finland, and the new idea of NATO as protecting the Eastern European countries from invasion.

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Queen Elizabeth was more comfortable with Labour prime ministers than Conservatives. This included Harold Wilson of Labour. The Queen had a prickly relationship with Margaret Thatcher. King Charles  has strong views on social issues such as housing and migration, and on climate change. Charles 75 years and Keir Starmer 61 years are shown here to have similar views on social issues in Britain. If Starmer wins the election they will meet weekly, and have much in common. The royal historian says there is a meeting of minds in terms of the social issues at stake, the plight of the people of Britain. The national anthem was played at the beginning of the Labour Conference in 2022. Sir Keir Starmer was made Queen's Counsel in 2004 and was knighted in 2014 for his services in public prosecutions. 

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President Obama's new rtegulatory reforms in final form as they go to Congress for passage. Exrtensive preparatory meetings with financial firms and industry participants, legislators, and consumer agencies and otehrs between Summers, Geithner and their aides and these firm's executives and leaders before the reforms were worked out.

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The Putin Trump meeting in July 2018 creates a storm in the U.S. over denials by the Russian president and the U.S. president about any interference by Russia in the 2018 U.S. presidential election. As the New York Times reports all intelligence groups in the U.S. have confirmed the interference. The images of the two presidents saying this just as the Mueller investigation gathers evidence is one more unusual event in 2017-2018, with what was once seen as improbable taking place.

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This report in the Economist after the Chequers meeting and the resignation of Boris Johnson and David Davis says this has improved May's position, yet there are dangers with the hardline Brexiters likely to continue their efforts to take Britain out of the EU. It says the Labor Party is hardly interested in what happens with the infighting in the Conservative Party, and the Labor Party would like to see the collapse of the May government with fresh elections later in 2018.

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The chaotic nature of the national lockdown announcement in Britain with Health Secretary Hancock pushing for a national lockdown and prime minister Boris Johnson's hesitation for 2 weeks. The Chief Medical Officer Mr. Chris Whitty told a top level meeting of ministers that the NHS could be overwhelmed by the first week of December and warned of 4000 deaths a day, if a lockdown did not take place. Tory backbenchers continued to resist but the prime minister had no other option but to call for the lockdown. The fact that Germany and France decided on a national lockdown gives Boris Johnson the cover he needed in his own party.

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After China's economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter the outlook is looking increasingly uncertain. Premier Li Keqiang stated at the start of an annual parliament meeting that China will now scrap the annual economic target due to the huge uncertainty from the coronavirus, and the world economic and trading environment. New tensions over Hong Kong's autonomous status are adding to the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and tensions over early handling of coronavirus by China. China recently announced new national security legislation for Hong Kong, and Mr. Trump says the U.S. would act "very strongly" against any effort to gain more control over Hong Kong.

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By a vote of 3 to 2 the U.S. Federal Communications Commission voted to scrap Obama period rules on Net Neutrality. These rules banned broadband providers from blocking websites or charging for higher quality service or specific content. Ajit Pai the newly appointed chairman of the FCC joined 2 Republicans to scrap the protections. The internet will no longer be regulated like a utility.

Major telecom companies say they will not act in a way that will change the experiences of people online. Critics say they will challenge the decision in the courts. There is heated discussion on this issue and the meeting at the FCC was carried out with high security.

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Oracle's account of the meeting of Mark Hurd and the M&A head at Oracle with Mike Lynch of Autonomy and his banker Frank Quattrone. After the meeting in which slides were presented to shop Autonomy to Oracle, Oracle stated that Autonomy's then market value of $6 billion was "extremely overpriced." In the end H-P ignored these warning signals and paid over $10 billion for Autonomy. Mike Lynch denied he had shopped the company to Oracle.

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The DJT Putin talks in Alaska lead to both sides agreeing that there would be another meeting and the goal would not be a ceasefire but an effort to reach a peace settlement. The media NYT, WSJ, Washington Post and others present it as a failure to reach a ceasefire. Yet ceasefires can be broken and with a better understanding and mutual respect after personal discussions, US and Russian leaders can help setup a lasting peace. Principal stumbling blocks of Ukraine after a long bruising fight is wary and skeptical of Russian intentions and Russia after suffering huge losses seeks to present its side and make some gains. Also emerging from the talks is abetter understanding of what the Russian side wants and is willing to accept. Putin accepts the need for European troops in Ukraine to ensure a lasting peace. The US does not want to get involved in a European war and the European peacekeeping force would have US military support but no US troops on the ground, something the Russian side is willing to accept. ...

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DJT commenting on the prospects for peace in Ukraine on August 19 after the meeting with Putin in Alaska and EU leaders at the White House by August 18. He comments on Russia's problem with European peacekeeping force- “I don’t think it’s going to be a problem, to be honest with you. I think Putin is tired of it. I think they’re all tired of it. But you never know. We’re going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks.”

On the reasons for making this effort to get everybody together to the table- not a Peace Prize as the media says. As usual DJT says something few would expect to hear-

“I want to try and get to Heaven if possible. I’m hearing I’m not doing well. I really hit the bottom of the totem pole. But if I can get to Heaven, this will be one of the reasons.”

 

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As the first military plane with 100 deportees from the US lands in Amritsar in the Punjab state, there is this reflection in India on why migrants decide to come mostly from Gujarat and Punjab two of India's prosperous states, and Gujarat a centre for industrial development under Vikshit Bharat 2047. Modi visits Washington Feb 12 for meetings with DJT.  Times of India says agencies that track illegal migrants report 90,415 migrants illegally entered the US from Mexico or Canada between October 2023 to Sept 2024. Half of the 90,415 migrants were from Gujarat. The two leading states for migrants are Punjab, Gujarat followed by Haryana, UP and Maharashtra.  In the Punjab this report shows business communities and urban professionals as part of the illegal migrant flow looking for better life- for reasons of governance, and social security, including people from well to do families. And not for reasons of job scarcity. And this is changing demographis with decline in population in Punjab with it being made up by migration from Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar states into Punjab.     ...

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Biden and Xi meet at an estate outside of San Francisco in the most important meeting of 2023.  Biden says his government would continue "to preserve and pursue" high level diplomacy after the two leaders talks. President Xi said about this period of global transformations that are taking place in this century that it was important that the two countries act in a way that "benefits the two peoples and fulfills their responsibilities for human progress." The two leaders came to an agreement on fentanyl, and on AI, and setting up high level communications including direct conversation between Biden and Xi Jinping. Coming during the conflict in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe this is a really important accomplishment of Biden and Xi for the people of the two countries, setting aside differences and looking for shared interests.

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President Macron takes up a difficult part of his promised changes in the election campaign- an effort to rewrite the rules and consolidate disparate pension plans in France. It comes at a difficult time and requires considerable courage as yellow vest protests against inequality had led to Macron holding townhall meetings in France to hear public opinion, after what appeared as a presidency that had lost touch with ordinary people. Macron has revised his plan to allow a retirement age of 62, yet the plan calls for combining many disparate plans with different rules into a streamlined national plan. Most affected are transport workers, lawyers and other professions that have generous benefits, with early retirement, leading to more strikes. Not taking action means the pension plans would become insolvent in the near future.

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After meeting with Rishi Sunak, the Finance Minister and the Business Secretary Alok Sharma prime minister Johnson is keen on getting things to as normal as possible in the summer to save jobs. About 3 million jobs could be lost, some permanently if businesses cannot open by summer, especially in the hospitality industry. This could push unemployment up from 1.3 million  to 2 million. The Times reports that at one point in the meeting Johnson said "Christ!" In mid March after he had the virus and Britain saw a surge in cases Johnson made health a priority even quoting Cicero in Latin that the health of the nation was the priority. Now this is changing with the jobs situation becoming a major risk. Much of the loss of jobs is likely say experts in the red wall districts that Johnson took from the Labour party in the election, and the prime minister feels a special responsibility to these districts. Johnson also said at one point about youth unemployment 18 to 24 years that is bleak, that he wanted to have an apprenticeship for every young person. The critical R rate is higher in the northwest and the southwest of England, compared to London. In England overall it is between 0.7 and 0.9. It needs to be around 1 to avoid spreading the virus.  As part of the social distancing guidelines ministers are also discussing changing the distancing on public transport so that it is 1 metre instead of 2 metres, so that reopening to get back to close to normal can be done sooner.     ...

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DJT on Iran and the midterms-  "voters understand that" about Iran not having a nuclear weapon and calls for Saudis, Qatar, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, to sign the Abraham Accords. He says the electon results in some states May 26 showed Republicans and much of the Nation with large majorities for candidates endorsed by DJT- voters understand the president's policy to not let Iran go for a nuclear weapon. This WSJ report cites concerns of Republicans about the midterms yet as soon as it appeared that the president was about to reach a  deal that would be similar to Obama's- that failed and financed Iran's third effort for nuclear weapons- over the weekend, as soon as this appeared to be the course many Republicans and the WSJ Editorial Board, said this was a bad idea. The president paused that effort. At a Cabinet meeting DJT said  about the Arab states signing the Abraham Accords- the Saudis and Qatar, Oman, Turkey,Jordan, “I think they owe that to us to be honest.”  “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign." On Iran getting funds from the US which could go right into making a nuclear weapons program again as it did after the Obama administration did this, DJT had this to say- “We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money. When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.” Repeatedly at campaign events and rallies across the country for 10 years DJT has said Obama made a serious mistake in handing over funds that were put right into building a nuclear weapons program with a ballistic weapons program, for a third time. This has happened before in North Korea. Obama allowed 11 tons of uranium enriched at 20% to be shipped to Russia- that did not stop Iran from a new nuclear weapons program and a threat to Israel. There is also considerable Republican skepticism about any deal that does not remove nuclear weapons. About sending the Iranian uranium to Russia or China DJT said- “No. That would not make me comfortable.”  About Iran's economy DJT said inflation is "at 250% "and they are negotiating on fumes." DJT calls it a "conflict" (the blockade not committing US troops) and not an open ended war. ...

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Of the 27 nations represented at the EU summit meeting on January 30, 2012, all except Britain and the Czech Republic agreed to the new measures for budgetary discipline. The new fiscal compact will come into effect after 12 eurozone countries have ratified the compact. This prevents one or two countries holding up the agreement. This provides the Merkel government in Germany an agreement on concrete measures for budgetary discipline- evidence of specific action to dissenters inside the Christian Democratic party and in German public opinion- which would enable it to support efforts by the ECB, the IMF and the EU to address the crisis, including the funding of the European Financial Stability Fund. The text of the fiscal compact makes it harder to block sanctions against countries that fail to impose budgetary discipline, while at the same time making allowance for countries with excessive debt such as Italy.

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The Blinken Wang Yi meeting at the G-2- in Indonesia is the first high level meeting between US and China since March when the Ukraine war started. In the press briefing after the meeting Blinken said "more than four months into this brutal invasion the PRC stands by Russia." He pointed to Beijing support of Russia at the United Nations, dissemination of Russian talking points through Chinese state media and joint military exercizes with Moscow. One aspect of the relations that is beyond the control or good intentions of the two countries top diplomats is the tit for tat response that began with the presidency of Donald Trump. Trump may have seen this as a way to talk to the voter base fed up with two decades of one sided trade with China with manufacturing shipped out to China and local communities of families and workers in regions across the US losing jobs and in decline. Much of this shift was done by US companies during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations over two decades. The strident tone adopted by Trump was met by tit for tat responses in Chinese media till the pandemic when it assumed a new aspect of Chinese origins of the coronavirus. The result is that Sinophobia in the US is met by a response in Chinese media and in the thinking of the Chinese leadership under Jinping that now sees the relationship as having already shifted during the pandemic. The paradox in this is that the US in its effort to get other countries on its side is only beginning to make an effort of get America's own companies and large business investors on its side. Most American companies are still continuing trade and business with China as before.  The same situation exists with the shift of manufacturing from Japan and the European Union to China, with the loss of jobs and decline of local communities that depended on manufacturing. Japanese and European companies are acting in ways that are similar to American companies. Having managed the shift of manufacturing from European Union and Japan to China these companies have done little to change this business situation in 2022 carrying on as before. This is the paradox of the current situation that business both in the US and EU, and Japan is not on the side of their governments, even as their governments attitude to China, particularly now after the pandemic and the Ukraine war has shifted drastically. Alongside this is the popular opinion that has shifted gradually over the last 10 years in the US and EU, first in these very local communities that lost manufacturing to China, and then across broader sections of the public, and now across whole regions of America, Britain, the EU and Japan. This shift in popular opinion has little interest in the way business conducts business overseas or governments conduct diplomacy in nuanced statements. As a result neither the governments of the US, EU and Japan or the business of the US, EU and Japan are in control of this shifting situation that has its momentum and pace operating quite independently of governments and business. And public opinion across America, Europe, Japan, and also in India is moving in an entirely new direction.     ...

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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Germany's Economy minister Zypries warned that Germany would take legal action by taking the case to the World Trade Organization if president Trump imposes tariffs above that allowed by WTO rules. She said this before a meeting at the White House between president Trump and Chancellor Merkel. The U.S. is Germany's largest export market with 107 billion in imports and the U.S. exports 58 billion euros of products to the U.S. Zypries accepted that the large trade surplus of Germany was "a problem," but that America "needs our machines and industrial plants" for the time being. Germany has insisted that it does not provide unfair advantages to its companies, and that German companies were simply more competitive. Trump has focussed largely on China for anti-competitive practices, though he mentioned BMW by name during the campaign. In the last 2 years the euro has depreciated significantly against the dollar giving German companies competitive advantage, largely as a result of the ECB- in opposition to German economic policy- trying to stimulate the economy of other southern eurozone countries such as Spain, Italy and France. ...

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This report in the Hindusthan Times compares the relatively few comments from India's Ministry of External Affairs on the Dokalam standoff between India and China, and the frequent and patriotic comments from the state media in China. India took a firm position on the sensitive border area road construction by China, because the Doklam plateau is the narrow area in the mountains that allows entry to India's northern plains. India and China announced disengagement following the incident. This report points out that the resolution happened on the eve of a BRICS meeting in China. Indian prime minister Modi's absence from the BRIC's meeting would have been an embarrassment for China, says the Hindusthan Times. The resolution would have happened after both sides realized that the border issue escalation was not in the interest of China and India as both sides face more important issues- India in the focus on modernization and China on sustaining growth and maintaining trade relations with the U.S. Trump administration at a time when the debt to GDP ratios exceed by some estimates 280% and trade has become a sensitive issue in America's midwestern states. ...

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Discussion at a U.S. Fed meeting in Jan 28-29, 2014, as revealed in the minutes for that meeting. It shows Fed officials such as Bullard of the St Louis Fed asked for a debate on interest rates, but most Fed oficials at the meeting including Lockhart of the Atlanta Fed, supported current tapering policy to wind down bond purchases buy the end of 2014. Some of the discussion went to how fast the unemployment rate had declined from 7.9% to the 6.5% threshold set by the Fed, and what this meant as other signs show weakness in the U.S. economy. The drop in the unemployment rate reflected more older workers retiring and to an unusual degree discouraged workers dropping out and not looking for work. Should the Fed put more weight on inflation and financial stability some officials argued, especially as inflation was still about a percentage point below the 2% target by some estimates.