LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT shows women's World Cup Soccer countries and games in coming weeks. Brazil and France in Group F, Spain in Group C, Argentina and Italy in Group G, Portugal and the US in Group E. Vietnam, Jamaica, Morocco, Zambia and the Philippines have also made it to the soccer championship games in addition to China. NYT looks at each country team.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ committed to orthodox economic theory thinks of tariffs as tariffs such as Smoot Hawley from the 30's. This is why it is not true- It is about fentanyl flows that have led to 490,000 deaths over 12 years in the US and few in the US like to talk about it. Smoot Hawley had nothing to do with fentanyl, drugs trafficking and migrant trafficking that every nation not only has a right but a No.1 responsibility to its citizens to keep its neighborhoods and its children in neighborhoods safe. Smoot and Hawley were US Senators and US Congress was isolationist in mood. Their grasp of the world trading system was meager and they stepped in at a time when the world had economically not recovered from World War I, and the French against US General Pershing's advice had set the most punitive arrangement in Germany that crushed Germany after an armistice Pershing opposed that left the Kaiser's political structures intact. Tariffs is not DJT's idea. It is the solid experience of Deputy US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer under Reagan who conducted negotiations with the Japanese who stalled and stalled Lighthizer says, let negotiations drag on into endless nights, and Lighthizer and his team stood firm. The relentless Japanese relented and Lighthizer secured the agreements that ended this phase of trade relations in the 1980's. Lighthizer was Trade Representative in the DJT first term 2016-2020 and launched the negotiations with China. This is now 8 years since 2016 and 2016 itself was 35 years after Lighthizer negotiated with the Japanese. Today's US Trade Representative is Jamieson who was Deputy Trade Representative under Lighthizer in 2016. Each detail is carefully thought through to bring it to a fair conclusion in the interests of the world and the US. Information traveled slowly GM could not tell at any time how many cars were in inventory on its lots in 1920's. US lacked basic infrastructure for government that FDR and Labor Secretary added firt in New York in the 1930's and which was transferred to 50 states by 1940's. Today information is quickly at fingertips and consultation processes are built in between industry and government at all levels. A lot of information is carefully evaluated. USTR as DJT showed, the major study of USTR Office in the Rose Garden on April 2, 2025, has all trade barriers carefully analyzed in minute details for every country. And is working on this for 40 years. There isn't even a slightest  comparison between this and the Smoot Hawley crowd in the 1920's.  The goal not to beat anybody. Just to set the goal of a level playing field for world trade. That is the foundation of trade that is fair and respected, and is a win-win for all. WTO's basic foundation No. 1 principle is a level playing field. It is just that this was a kind of Marshall Plan for Asia of the US to let poor countries such as Japan war wrecked in 1950, and China colonial power wrecked by first Britain then Japan struggling and poor in 1990's, giving them some time to rebuild by ignoring unfair barriers to trade for 10-15 years 2005 for China. Barriers that never got dismantled and technology that leaked from the US 2005-2016 under the Obama administration. Smoot Hawley was not about the US Navy building its own ships and US shipyards in the 1920's. In 2025 US shipbuilding industry is stolen, this is why the words used "pillaged" "looted" were used in the Rose Garden. Little by little American private enterprise capitalism was superseded by a new form of capitalism in Japan then in China that combined state capitalism with private enterprise capitalism. This then was the threat America faced, and needed to redouble its energies and seek fair play.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Media accounts have given so much attention to the Nixon Feb. 1972 visit to China that most people may be unaware that this was just an important yet small beginning. The significance of what happened after 1972 is not fully understood. In 1973 the US liasion Office was setup in Beijing and China's liasion office in Washington DC.  Beyond this not much happened. Why? In 1972 election year the Watergate scandal started in June of that year only 4 months after the Nixon China visit. Nixon was too engaged with fighting impeachment that there was not much followup to the visit to China. In 1974 Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became president. Till Carter became president in 1976 and in 1977 negotiations began to upgrade relations with premier Deng Xiaoping visiting the US in 1979. In China too a lot was happening. Mao was hospitalized in 1972 during Nixon's visit to China, the reason for the urgency on the Chinese side. In 1976 within a few months first premier Chou en lai and then chairman Mao passed away. A power struggle led to the head of the Military Commission Deng taking control. It was not till 1977 under Jimmy Carter 5 years after 1972 that China began full normalization, gained diplomatic recognition as the People's Republic of China and trade, cultural contacts were started.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This picture essay in The Guardian shows the 700,000 additional people displaced inside Afghanistan in 2021 in addition to the 2.9 million displaced people by 2020. The British stayed out of Afghanistan except for brief forays from concern about Russia entering close to British India. Not much happened till Zahir Shah, the King of Afghanistan was seen as not doing much for a famine that struck the country in 1972. Drought struck much of the country in 1972 leading to the deaths of over 100,000 people from starvation. The King had ruled since 1933. And for a brief period his cousin and brother-in-law Daud Khan had actually run the administration between 1953 to 1963, before being dismissed with a new constitution adopted not allowing the royal family to rule the country without consulting parliament. The poor handling of famine relief led to the fall of the government appointed by King Zahir Shah in 1972. In 1973 Daud Khan violates this constitution and assumes control of the country. British India was in 1972 the India of the Nehru period, with his daughter Indira Gandhi the democratically elected prime minister. India fought a brief war with Pakistan in 1971 that set up the new nation of Bangladesh from territory of East Bengal. India preoccupied with Bangladesh refugees did not do what the British had done to keep outside powers out of Afghanistan and maintain a stable monarchy. Daoud Khan's repression of Communist party leaders led to Communist party military factions in the army taking over the country in 1978. The Afghan military led by officers in the army's Communist factions had little support in the traditional Islamic nature of the countryside for their land reforms. Leading to a rebellion and entry of Soviet troops under a friendship treaty signed in 1978 with Soviets under Leonid Brezhnev. It is this disrupting of the stability of the Afghan monarchy or the entry of Soviets or Americans or any other foreign influence that was carefully prevented in British India by Britain's India policy, which resulted in a period of peace and stability in that region. The events of 1974 with the fall of the monarchy, and the entry of Russia in 1978 broke two of the main rules the British had observed from 1750- a stable monarchy and no outside influence in Afghanistan. A policy the British also followed for Tibet. When China entered Tibet in 1950 Nehru was too preoccupied with the millions of refugees from Pakistan and failed to prepare in the years 1947-50 for following British policy on Tibet by preparing or anticipating the entry of foreign powers. The entry of China into Tibet in October 1950 led to the Sino India border war of 1962, and led to the current situation of India facing a Chinese army all along the border of Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Nepal and all the way in the Himalayas to Kashmir. The result has been billions of dollars spent by the US every week starving domestic priorities, as president Biden observed this week, and a burial place for empires. Ten years for Russia, and twenty for the US with the same result. It has left the whole region poorer and in humanitarian crisis for 50 years, and created crises for Russia, Pakistan, India, and the US. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Renault SA sales increased by 3.2% to 2.7 million cars in 2014. Renault does not sell vehicles in the U.S., and it has only a small operation in China. Sales in emerging markets outside of Europe declined from 50% of sales to 46%. Sales in Brazil were up 0.3% and sales in Argentina declined by 40%. Sales in Russia declined. The sales outlook in emerging markets Brazil and Russia is poor for 2015. Renault has been a laggard in China, and plans to make large investments to catch up with competitors. Sales in Europe were significantly better. Sales were 577,601 in France for 2014, an increase of 5.5% over prior year. The most popular model is the Dacia, with sales up 19.1% in 2014 to 511,465, now making up 18.9% of total sales. Renault plans to introduce 5 new models in 2015, and forecasts sales growth of 2%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Nokia announced a loss of 929 million euros for the first quarter of 2012. Sales declined from 10.4 billon euros to 7.4 billion euros in the same quarter prior year. The only bright spot for the company is that the Lumia 900 sold throught AT&T has made a successful launch in the U.S. Nokia CEO Elop says the phone is sold out in stores in the U.S. Lumia sales were 2 million in the 1st quarter of 2012, at an average price of 220 euros ($290). Nokia's strategy now is to bring the Lumia line including the lower end Luma 610 phone to Asian markets by June- to China, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Nokia's biggest problem is the older Symbian phones, which consumers are passing by and which now have to be discounted rapidly or replaced quickly with the Lumia line. The other related problem is falling margins on basic phones as Chinese competitors discount heavily- basic Nokia phone prices fell 18% to 33 euros ($43) from 40 euros or($52) the prior year. The speed in the drop in business for mobile phones can be guaged from the sales decline of 40% in the 1st quarter from $9.3 billion to $5.6 billion. Things are made worse by the 772 million euro ($1 billion) charge taken for Nokia Siemens Networks, a network joint venture with Siemens. Sales for Nokia Siemens fell 7% in the first quarter to $3.8 billion. Nokia Siemens has 53 contracts to build new mobile networks with Long Term Evolution Technology more than competitors Ericsson and Huawei, according to Nokia Siemens. Everything now depends on the speed with which Nokia can move to its Lumia line across the board, especially in China....

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in NYT looks at the Barbados debt crisis. Barbados spends 55% of its budget to pay interest on debt (servicing the debt). That leaves about 5% for health and climate change. Years of borrowing that ignored basic rules of financing have created serious problems that were compounded by the pandemic and hurricanes. This report shows that the total deb of Barbados was not known to the central bank. Borrowing was approved at exorbitant interest rates. One loan with Credit Suisse for $150 million is shown here with interest rates that lead it to become a catastrophic amount owed. Many such loans without any checks and supervision of total loans taken, lack of financial prudence rules followed, lack of transparency and alerts on borrowing and spending tend to create this kind of situation in many poor countries. About two thirds of developing countries are in this situation owing one third of their budget for debt service or paying interest on the loan. The situation is unstable to begin with. Then on comes along a hurricane or natural disaster such as the pandemic and the unstable situation becomes a catastrophe. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Caribbean nations, nations in Africa, face debt crises that are getting worse. It is not inevitable or destiny for nations today, consider the examples of large nations such as Japan, China, South Korea and India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and one can see that development finance can be prudent and responsible, so that situations such as the pandemic can be handled without going into disarray. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Meg Gentle, who helped build the first LNG terminal for Cherniere Inc. in the Gulf Coast of the US for export of natural gas extracted in the US, is now switching to work in green hydrogen production. The first facility goes up in Texas by 202 7after an experimental project in Chile. WSJ shows many former fossil fuel executives are taking this route to green hydrogen. Gentle says the nascent green hydrogen industry is similar to the beginnings of natural gas. She says there are all the same elements in both. And that the new companies can go from one plant to create a new transformation just like that done for LNG. A chief technology officer of Airbus, a head of GE Europe and China, and an Italian from Eni Enel are also working at green hydrogen companies. What has turned an historically uneconomic business into a possibly profitable business are subsidies from president Biden put in place for clean energy. These subsidies now cover 60% of the cost of green hydrogen, says the WSJ. Green hydrogen requires permiting, infrastructure, financing, customer agreements, similar to the fossil fuel industry. Many are joining for the challenge as green hydrogen when converted into a liquid for transport can't carry as much energy as fossil fuels. About 120 startups raised $2.6 billion in 2022, a 50% jump from 2021. The GE executive says no one has done this on scale making the opportunity enormous. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After the Phase 1 trade deal with China led to cancellation of new tariffs on computers, mobile phones and the remaining products imported from China, tariffs are still in place on $370 billion of imports from China. President Trump says China agreed to import $32 billion of agricultural goods, with the figures reaching $50 billion in 2020. The prior high was $26 billion in 2012. This comes as a big relief for the agricultural farm sector which had 24% more bankruptcies in 2019. Farmers are now more likely to vote for president Trump as they did in the last election. In addition China agreed to buy $200 billion more of American goods over the next 2 years. This combined with the USMCA agreement to replace NAFTA, for North American trade, is good news for president Trump and for the U.S. economy for 2% annual growth. The S&P stock index went up by 29% in 2019. The big concession by China is its agreement to agree to penalties if it does not keep up its part of the bargain.  Intellectual property protection remains a challenge and Mr. Trump may have decided to take a tactical success and shore up his base of farmers and small business people before taking up these issues in the future. China for its part may have decided to make a tactical move of its own as it has nothing to lose in importing more farm products from the U.S. in exchange for being able to continue to make the computers, iPhones and tech products it manufactures, just like before. China has not conceded much in terms of its goals set  in "Made in China 2025." Both sides are taking a much needed pause to consolidate their positions, as the fundamental differences remain to be tackled. Huawei and Chinese technology issue remains as before with the U.S. wary of China's technological gains in 5G telecom equipment and keen on building and protecting America's technological advantage in future trade relations. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Daniel Bell at Tsinghua University in Beijing, Andy Xie, economist in Shanghai, Zhang Habin, professor at Peking University, and Michael Meyer, author and hutong expert, talk about what issues are important. Bell says Obama mania is absent among the young in China, though they respect his intellectual abilities, and Chinese are not looking to the USA for ideals. They are looking to Chinese culture and characteristics, and democracy is seen in this light with emphasis on Chinese characteristics. This means the US has to engage at a deeper level with China. Treat China as an equal with something positive to offer, says Bell. Andy Xie is concerned about the US-China relationship, based as it is today on tenuous grounds, where what happens in Florida and California can have a significant and immediate effect on what happens in Guangdong. With 70% of the furniture sold in the US made in China, the effects are immediate when housing slumps. So he says the US lost 3 million jobs since the subprime crisis, and China lost 20 million jobs. And for the 5 million college graduates coming out in 2009, they will be adding to the 5 million college graduates from previous years who are seeking jobs. Ten million unemployed college graduates mean China is seeing whole new conditions as the backdrop of US-China relations. Habin says its important for the US to set an example in climate change and emissions of greenhouse gases. The US should sign an agreement with China with binding targets, make its technology available to China, and provide development aid to make this technology and other assistance accessible to China. Cooperation on this issue is vital to future relations says Habin. Meyer says the hutong, small enclaves of old Beijing with lanes and small homes, that the city officials call neighborhood slums, but actually have a sense of community and a vibrant life, are worth preserving. He questions the Walmart and Pepsi commercial culture, and questions building of the American car culture urban plan that generates pollution, lacks community feeling, and is not energy efficient. In fact he has a point here, because the US is shifting away from its own older urban planning design that encourages urban sprawl, as in California. The new Sacramento urban plan that is being adopted for the future in America has energy efficiency, more community and easy interaction, less urban sprawl in mind. See the link to this. But Meyer says Chinese planners insist on their right to make the same mistakes American urban planners made. And Meyer quotes the head of the first Chinese environmental NGO, who says, "if the Chinese want to live the American way of life we need 7 earths to support them". Which raises a disturbing question of the US postwar way of life with its large SUV's, urban sprawl, and less sense of community. Wouldn't the US have to join India and China in the worldwide scramble for resources to preserve this way of life? Just this week China signed $51 billion of deals for natural resources, see the link. And is the rapid decline of the SUV, just the first sign of changes that are taking place, with the economic changes in coming years leading to grappling with issues of better quality of life, smaller quantity of things, health and obesity and lifestyles, community, all coming to the fore. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mexico's GDP increases at 3.9% compared to 2.7% for Brazil in 2011. Foreign investment is increasing in Mexico especially in the automobile industry and in industries where Mexico is favored over China as a production location. The G-20 meets in Los Cabos, Mexico in June 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tsai Ing-Wen is elected president of Taiwan by a landslide in the Jan. 2016 election. Tsai, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected with 56 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for the Koumintang candidate Eric Chu. The DPP won 68 seats out of 113 in Taiwan's parliament. Tsai told a news conference about Taiwan- China relations - "I also want to emphasize that both sides have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction that are based on dignity and reciprocity."

LyrArc Article Gist
China's agriculture based on small farms is undergoing a change as the government pushes automated farming and large farms in the face of limited imports from the U.S. China put tariffs on agricultural imports from the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. China's Agriculture Ministry says it will build 254 "strong agricultural industrial towns" as models for the country. President Xi stated on a visit to northeastern province Heilongjiang, that "unilateralism and trade protectionism are rising, forcing us to take the road of self reliance." The yield per hectare in the U.S. for soybeans is about twice that in China. Mechanized farming is limited in China because it would eliminate many jobs in rural areas. As the state has ownership of land and farmers merely use land, farmers are less likely to take risks with large long term investments. It can be risky for farmers to rent their land use rights to others, which would lead to consolidation.  Now a separate "Made in 2025" plan makes upgrading farm machinery and equipment one of the 10 goals. China may lift ban on genetically modified seeds now that ChemChina has acquired Swiss seed company Syngenta. China plans to partner with Asian Development Bank to provide $6 billion of loans, grants and investment to fund a list of development projects in rural areas, to modernize agriculture. WSJ cites a project of consolidation into an 8200 acre farm in Shandong province that  has increased yields 43% by investing in new farm equipment and planting machines, pesticide spraying drones. Scaling up has made this possible.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ Lingling Wei's interview with Ding Xuedong, chairman of China Investment Corporation on its plans and strategies for 2015-2016, and future years. China's government formed CIC in 2007 to improve the returns on its foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2015. China Investment Corporation had largely stayed with low yields on U.S. Treasury debt till 2007. CIC has about $650 billion in assets in 2015. Its strategies provide insights into how China sees the outlook for the global economy. Ding sees opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, with a focus on the U.S. and Europe for steady cash flows. He singles out the U.S. as of particular interest as its economy rebounds. Strategies also include paring down of energy holdings. Foreign holdings are now $220 billion and have increased by 16.6% since 2009. A special unit CIC Capital was formed recently to more directly participate in managing foreign holdings with a long term view. Earlier focus of CIC on natural resources and commodities is now shifting as the commodities crisis has reduced long term prospects in that sector. The plan for the future is to shift to an allocation where financial products such as stocks and bonds are about 50%, and long term assets such as infrastructure investments, real estate and other investment take up the other 50%. At the end of 2013 equities and fixed income represented 57.4% of CIC global assets, and 28.2% were in long term assets. Ding wants to see China as the No. 2 engine for the global economy after the U.S. as No. 1. He sees the prospects for Brazil, Russia and South Africa as poor, and is optimistic about good performance from India, Mexico and Nigeria. On Japan Ding is skeptical of prime minister Abe's plans because he sees the lack of structural reforms in the efforts leading to a kind of lazy effort in his view. CIC is learning from the experience of other national investment funds and improving its in-house investment and management capabilities. Ding has many years of experience with China's Finance Ministry, the Cabinet, and the State Council. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Experts at the East-West Center in Honolulu, say China will add about 55 million barrels to its strategic reserves in 2012, which is another factor that will keep oil prices high in 2012. A number of new storage locations are coming on stream to store the additional reserves. China imported 5.57 millon barrels a day in March 2012, an increase of 8.7% from the prior year month. Oil imports for the 1st quarter of 2012 increased by 11% over the prior year quarter, according to China's General Administration of Customs. This is a much faster pace than imports in 2011, which increased by 6%. China is building its strategic reserves to reach a goal of 90 days supply similiar to the U.S. strategic reserves. Lu Tienan, director of China's National Energy Administration, said at a conference in the first week of April that current total oil stocks, including strategic and commercial are enough for 40 days. It is doing this in the face of higher oil prices, because of the threat of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program could lead to a cutoff of Iranian supplies. China's oil imports from Iran were 11% of total imports in 2011, making this an urgent priority for China. Estimates of the East-West Center are for crude oil imports at an average of 5.77 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 13% over 2011. International Energy Agency estimates are for China's total oil demand for 2012 to be 9.9 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 6% over 2011....

LyrArc Article Gist
India's airlines together will lose $1 billion to $2 billion in 2008, twice what they lost in 2007, according to aviation analysts. The airlines face a glut of domestic overcapacity. Until recently therre were 50 flights between Bombay and Delhi with 4 seats chasing each passenger according to Keskar, Boeing vice president in charge of sales in India. Boeing and Airbus are advising airlines in India to delay deliveries of planes so that the overcapacity does no lasting damage and the industry can recover from this as they see India as a boom market in the future. Boeing expects India will need 1001 aircraft till 2027. Reasons for the airline losses are that in the 12 months ending April 2008 passenger traffic increased by only 7%, and in the 12 months before that by 31%, and in the 12 months prior by 59%. Air India is cutting its domestic flights by 15% returning 14 leased jets to their owners as the leases expire and freezing the size of its fleet. Worldwide the airline industry could lose $6.1 billion in 2008 with a third of the losses in the USA. Passenger volumes fell in China for the second straight month in June but China's airlines appear stable because of milder competition and government support....

LyrArc Article Gist
The average price of a smartphone in India in 2022 was $206 excluding taxes, Apple's smartphones go for $898. With discounts Apple is now bringing the price down to below $500. In 2019 phones over $500 made up 3% of the market. This has increased to 6% in 2022. Apple is counting on this share of the market going up and prices being brought down below $500 to build a larger share of the market. Its market in 2023 is about 5% in India compared to 22% in China.

In China Apple has its own stores. It is only now opening its first store in Mumbai. This and building manufacturing facilities in India could be the way to increase its share of the market in India to where it provides an alternative comparable to the Chinese market. This is the first time after the pandemic and the supply chain issues, the idea of friendshoring, that Apple is reorienting its policy for making India a key part of its supply chain and market. 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
Strong deman in the first quarter 2008 for cars in China 2 VW models the Santana and the Jetta are in the top 5 bestsellers along with Honda Accord and Buick Excelle but Buick Excelle is 5 years old and is slipping. Cherry is no 5 in best selling models. @.58 million cars sold in China in 1st quarter up 21 % from last year. Hond gained as no2 to the Santana because its a global new generation release of this model. The Chinese market is quite perceptive and demanding and GM may hav become complacent with the Excelle 5 years old.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sovereign funds should reach $8 trillion by 2011. China Investment Corporation has $200 billion. Much larger are Singapore $438 billion and Norway $367 billion, Abu Dhabi $875 billion, Australia has $50 billion and Alaska has $40 billion. And they are in a majority of the cases professionally run, can stabilize markets because they invest in the long term, often as in Norway's case push for better corporate governance, and invest in emerging markets. It could affect the dollar as their holdings of a declining currency may decrease and as they show preference for emerging markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
Just 2 weeks before president Xi's arrival in New Delhi for a G-20 Summit, Xi meets prime minister Modi at the Johannesburg BRICS summit. Modi and Xi agree on an expeditious disengagement of forces at the Line of Actual Control after Modi tells Xi that maintaining peace and tranquility in the border areas and respecting the LAC is essential for a normal India China relationship.  

LyrArc Article Gist
The LDP's landslide victory in the Dec. 2012 elections is not seen as a mandate for Shinzo Abe, the new LDP prime minister. Abe acknowledged this when he said: "We recognize that this was not a restoration of confidence in the Liberal Democratic Party, but a rejection of three years of incompetent rule by the Democratic Party." The LDP won 294 seats compared to the 308 seats won in the landslide win by the Democratic Party of Japan three years ago. Abe campaigned on a stronger stance in Japan's disputes with China. Yet he is committed to maintaining relations with China, a key trading partner. On China Abe says: "Our goal is to stop China from making these challenges, but we do not intend to allow an overall worsening in relations." Osaka Mayor Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Party was expected to do well but his campaign lost momentum after joining with Shintaro Ishihara, a nationalist politician. The Tomorrow Party which campaigned on the nuclear issue and anti-nuclear sentiment petered out after voters sensed the impact of electrical shortages and prices. The LDP is pro-nuclear and plans to reverse some of the anti-nuclear steps taken by the DPJ. The Democratic Party of Japan gained only 57 seats, and the former DPJ prime minister during the earthquake and tsunami, Naoto Kan, lost his parliamentary seat. Just as the PRI, a party that held a long monopoly of power was returned to power in Mexico in 2012, the LDP is returning to power, but very dependent on voters aspirations for good governance and its performance in office....

LyrArc Article Gist
The growing number of women in their 40's who are childless, one person homes, "child-free" adults, higher rates of divorce, are not limited just to Western Europe, the U.S. and Japan. This is spreading rapidly in lower income countries in the Arab world and Asia also. In Europe the progress is relentless. With divorce rates higher and fewer women marrying, the probability of a women of reproductive age getting married in Belgium is about 40%, and divorce at about 50%, according to Eurostat. So that the probability of women getting married and staying married is about 20%. This is true of other European countries also. There is a huge increase in "child-free' adults, men and women choosing voluntarily to not have children. The proportion of childless women in their 40's is highest in Berlin and Hamburg, nearly 33%, about 25% in Italy, and 20% in Sweden. One person homes are increasing in Western Europe, with about 32% in Europe and 45% in Denmark, not from aging alone as in Denmark as many as twice the number of one person homes are under age 65 than over 65. The UN population Division's "World Marraige Data 2012," shows that places like Morocco, Libya, and other parts of the Arab world are also experiencing these trends, with income and schooling levels much lower than in Europe and the U.S. These trends are now worldwide and affecting traditionally conservative societies like China....

LyrArc Article Gist
Macron started out in the Socialist Party in Amiens, France. After going to elite schooling he joins the Socialist Party ministry of Francois Hollande. As Minister of the Economy he rises rapidly to replace Hollande with his own party called the Movement that he sets up and within a year wins presidential elections. The rapid rise, the lack of his Movement party having much experience and put together quickly with new younger people, his aloof presidency, and a lack of connection with the problems brought on by the deindustrialisation of France as production shifts to China, the problems of lack of work and cost of living in smaller towns in France, lead to Macron's loss of popularity. His party won only 10% of the vote in EU elections and 20% in the first round of Assembly elections in 2024. He is now allied with Sarkozy's Les Republicains, the very party he sought to replace by calling it old school and no longer relevant.  A small faction of the Les Republicains shifts out to ally with the National Rally of Le Pen and together the 2 parties seek a majority or near majority in the Assembly to take the prime minister position under Macron. The result would be a too young at 28 years Bardella as PM and the Socialist Alliance a close second in the National Assembly. Macron would have to come to terms with the Socialists he had abandoned to run the country and appoint Oliver Faure as prime minister if a second round gives his Movement and the Socialists over 50% of the vote. ...