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Gerald Seib of the WSJ points out that the winners in the passing of the Republican healthcare bill in the House by a 4 vote margin are Speaker Ryan who never wanted the job in the first place, and president Trump who showed he could cajole Republicans into getting it passed because he likes winning. Now comes the hard part says Seib, when it goes to the Senate- House conservatives are not going to be happy when they find major changes they dislike. If the bill clears the Senate in a modified version Republicans will now have to own any issues with healthcare, including says Seib things that may not work out for pre-existing conditions- or for groups that are disadvantaged, including older people.

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A health care practitioner says the real problem is the high cost of medical care in the U.S. when compared to other countries. She points out that the Obama bill in 2008 did not take effective steps to bring down the cost of health care before enacting legislation to cover the uninsured, leading to higher premiums for the middle class. The link between healthcare and profits is seen as the main problem. 

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WSJ Editorial Board on Iran strategy to have low level skirmishes and missile attacks for the rest of 2026 and keep Hormuz on ship by ship basis essentially blocked. Most of the oil through Hormuz going to teapot refineries in China, some to Japan and India. Alternative US supplies have to be arranged for India and Japan, nuclear, renewables have to be accelerated immediately as this is the likely scenario. China would have to look for alternate supplies. It is not just the US response, how will China, India and Japan respond to get alternate supplies, how are their governments preparing for this scenario? France announced it is going to go all out on electric cars to cut use of oil.

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The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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The US is facing a new pattern of demographic changes and their impact on Medicare and Social Security programs. The number of people on Medicare will grow in 2 decades, 2010- 2030, from 47 million to 80 million for Medicare, and from 44 million to 73 million for Social Security, according to this estimate. The workforce will grow more slowly and the tax base wiill shrink accordingly during this period. This pending worker-pensioner imbalance and the jump in the cost of the bill for Medicare and Medicaid, as well as the federal health benefit for poor people, create a major problem for the US. At the same time the group of people over 65 will rise in these 2 decades from 17% of the voting age population to 26%. This group and the people who expect to soon join this group will resist any changes to Medicare or Social Security programs, making it that much harder for the political process to tackle these issues to make the programs sustainable in the long run.

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In private conversations, Paul Volcker has advised administration officials, that in implementing the Volcker Rule, regulators should follow the practice in money laundering laws. There the government bans a certain behaviour, and then the burden is on the banks to screen for red flags and to ensure compliance. His advice is to ban banks from trading with their own funds if they benefit from any kind of government guarantee. Banks would be required to police their own actions, and the Fed examiners ensuring they are in compliance. The recently passed regulatory reform bill left a lot to the regulators, who have to fill in the blanks. Volcker's concern is that narrow rules would invite gamesmanship from the banks to evade the intent of the law. At one Congressional hearing Volcker suggested a Potter Stewart type of approach- Stewart as Supreme Court Justice said about pornography: "I know it when I see it." For Volcker bankers know what proprietary trading is and is not, and he does not want to let bankers tell anybody anything different. Thw new Financial oversight Stability Council is charged with the task of coming up with a course of action by January 2011, and then writing the rules by October 2011. The fear among a group of 18 senators is that bankers will weaken the Volcker rule protections. A letter pointing this out was sent by the group to the Oversight Council last week....

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There is a role for future ability, empathy, motivation, character and patience in college admissions, and past grades or  quantified scores alone cannot predict this, says this report in WSJ. This will also help produce an inclusive society, and a better society that fill positions at all levels in society in a better way than is done today, says Galston in the WSJ.

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One way to ease the supply of oil cutoff from the Middle East to Asia (to India, Japan and South Korea) is to ease sanctions on the oil on tankers on the sea (large inventories at sea) and from Russia. US president DJT says -“We have sanctions on some countries, we are going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out. And then who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on because there will be so much peace." 

Treasury Secretary Bessent says the same thing that “waiving certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices," would be good way to ease the impact of the war on prices.

This will help Russia balance its budget and who knows it may make it possible to open up new discussions for peace in Ukraine as the US acts as an intermediary in negotiations to end the war. From the larger interest of US, China, India + Indonesia, of Russia and Ukraine, and of Europe,it makes sense to end that war.

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On October 28 France reported 36,000 daily coronavirus cases. French president Macron announced a new lockdown starting October 30 that last till December 1.  Under this second lockdown people can leave home only to go to work, to go to school, to give assistance to loved ones, for essential shopping and for 1 hour of physical exercize. People will have to show documentation when leaving home. Travel between regions is banned. Bars and restaurants and nonessential businesses will be closed. Universities and higher education will be done online. Schools will remain open, essential businesses will remain open. Most public services will be open. Factories, farms and construction sites can continue to operate. There will be extensive economic support for business and people. Small businesses will have access to 10,000 euros per month of assistance, employees get short term work assistance, and people having trouble with rent receive assistance. About half of intensive care beds are now taken in France. And Macron said transferring patients to other regions will not be possible as the virus is everywhere. ...

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Kamala Harris says she will tackle immigration head-on at the Arizona rally August 10, 2024. She said she would Pass the Lankford- Biden Immigration Bill and sign it into law. It is the bill that passed the Senate and was given no chance in the House because of it being opposed by Trump for use as an election issue.

Harris said-

“I was attorney general of a border state. I went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and the human traffickers. I prosecuted them in case after case and I won, so I know what I’m talking about.”

“He talks a big game about border security but he does not walk the walk."

“We know our immigration system is broken and we know what it takes to fix it: comprehensive reform. That includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship,” 

 

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Axel Springer buys London's The Telegraph newspaper( allied with the Conservatives) for $793 million. Axel Springer also owns The Politico website in the US. “To be the owner of this institution of quality British journalism is a privilege and a duty,” says Mathias Dopfner, CEO of Axel Springer, the German publisher. He says Axel tried to buy The Telegraph 20 years back. It will preserve the editorial independence of the newspaper and invest in its digital development and AI related work.

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Axel Springer is owned by Freide Springer (widow of Axel Springer) and Matthias Dopfner sole owners of media properties Bild, Welt, Politico The Telegraph. KKR is the owner of classified ads part of the business. By taking it private at $7.5 billion valuation it offers KKR a private equity company a way to have an offramp from the media business, which had come under scrutiny from investors. For Dopfner it was away to avoid investor pressures as he sought to expand the footprint of Axel Springer to UK and US, other countries.

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Argentine coach Lionel Scaloni has a strong confident team for World Cup 2026 says The Guardian. This includes Messi, Julian Alvarez, Thiago Almada, Lautaro Martinez and youngster Nico Paz in 4-3-3 formation. Scaloni knows it is difficult to replicate past success from 2022.  “It will be a very complex and difficult World Cup. We have to prepare the players because what’s coming is going to be tough; you can’t always win.” See all the details about the Argentine team in The Guardian.

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As the final Republican tax bill is debated in Congress on December 19, 2017, Senator Bob Casey cited the following points from the Joint Committee on Taxation Report on the floor of the Senate.  1. Americans building their hopes that their pay checks in February 2018 will be increasing are in for a big disappointment said Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, a senior member of the Finance Committee. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimate is that for the 57 million families making less than 100,000 dollars a year the tax cuts in the Republican legislation will either not reduce their taxes or reduce the taxes by about $100 a year. 2. The bill does little for the big tasks facing America of rebuilding failing infrastructure. Senator Casey cited 4500 bridges needing repair or replacement in Pennsylvania alone. It also does little for health care access for middle class families and is likely to lead to 10% increase in health care premiums. Affordability of college and other hurdles of middle class and working class families remain unaddressed.   3. The $9 billion in the estate tax cuts would finance the Children's Health Insurance program which has expired.  4. The $36 billion in tax cuts for corporations comes at a time when corporate profits are at the highest they have been in 15 years, according to Vanguard founder Bogle. He also points out that wages as a percentage of GDP are the lowest in 15 years. The tax cuts in the Republican bill are not likely to correct this imbalance.  5. The share of GDP of people making more than one million dollars in 1980 was 11%, this is up now in 2017 to 20%. This has led to questions about the wisdom of these tax cuts which disproportionately benefit a very small percentage of Americans who do not need these tax cuts, and come with significant sacrifices for the middle class in terms of what is available in public services, and the cost to their children as infrastructure and access to health and education is made more distant because of a growing U.S. debt from this tax cut. The big problem then with this bill is that it further damages intergenerational mobility in the U.S., undermining the foundation of a democratic society. Damage has already happened in the past three decades as Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen pointed out at a conference on Economic Opportunity and Inequality on Oct. 17, 2014, saying-"The past several decades have seen the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality following the Great Depression." This is why there is substantial agreement in the media from the Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip to Krugman in the New York Times that the bill fails to correct a harmful trend, and goes further in the wrong direction for a democratic society.       ...

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This editorial in the WSJ describes the sharp increase in premiums under the Affordable Care Act of president Obama. The average premium increase is about 24.2% according to a Barclay's analysis, and as high as 43.9% in states such as Illinois. Bill Clinton calls it the craziest thing with small business affected, and some premiums doubling. Of the 17 million people in the individual market eight million buy without subsidies. One in five enrollees cannot qualify for subsidies. Democrats say subsidies are too small. Hillary Clinton has proposed to have a Medicare "buy-in" for people ages 55-65, and a "public option" government run plan. Republicans want to rewrite the law. But this depends on which party wins the Senate, with the election in Missouri giving Democrats an opportunity to maintain a Senate majority.

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The checks and balances put inplace by the founders who designed the US Constitution with the two houses of parliament, the Supreme Court, the US Federal Reserve as central bank, and the state governments and large city governments, in a delicate system of balance. The entire house elected every 2 years and the presidency for 3+1 years 3 for governing and the 4th year of primaries and preparing for the next election are other forms of this checks and balances.

Jerome Powell at the Fed will be governor till Jan 2028 and Fed chair till May 2026. Powell plans to complete his term in office and preserve the Fed's independence as designed in the charter for the central bank.

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Khamanei as leader of post revolution Iran set up Iranian supported military organizations in neighboring countries such as in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Iraq, and in Syria, in Yemen (Houthis), over two decades, but failed to make the gains that Asian nations in that period made by investing entirely every dollar in the homeland economy of Iran. By comparing with Asian nations such as South Korea/Japan/Taiwan/China and now India/Vietnam the entire region from Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Persian Gulf, Egypt can be seen as having lost some vital decades of the early twenty first century, and the scale of the difference is nothing short of staggering.  China after suffering invasion from Britain and then Japan, after civil wars and the Korean War, after going through this for two centuries sought peaceful development in 1990-2025, working with Japan and Britain countries that caused so much suffering yet China sough rapprochement, patiently with humility, with incredible results.  Gandhi also sought rapprochement with Britain through the British Commonwealth and cherished institutions of parliament and science learned and gathered from Britain. This was woefully missing in West Asia. When considering the access to capital in fossil fuel sales, the region of West Asia around Egypt may be seen as having recorded the largest wasted capital in wars in world history in the period 1920 -2047 (with only 20 years left to 2047),  by which time India, China, Europe and the US will have shifted from fossil to solar nuclear and renewables and fossil will be no longer generating revenue flows. Very little time is left as development will be that much harder by 2047 without the capital and result being one of being left behind in this new world that is facing us all.  ...

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Harris Interactive survey in 2024 finds 73% of French people support social media age limits for under 15 years and 15-18 years children. A bill will take this up in the French parliament Jan 19, 2026. The sceptical approach in this Politico Report is incomprehensible considering the negative effects of social media on children.

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India vs England cricket Test series 2025 ends with Siraj bowling out Atkinson and India winning by 6 runs. "Test cricket" going back to the days of Gary Sobers and Richie Benaud in 1960. In one Test at the Gabba in Brisbane in 1960, the West Indies and England were down in the last ball to one run and the game ended with a tie, both teams at the same score. That Test is considered the most or one of the most memorable of all time. This one with Gill and Siraj, Root and Stokes joins that one. For all days at Headingley, Old Trafford, Lord's, Birmingham, and the Oval, crowds packed the stadium, and a billion people watched the series in India, UK, Australia, US, and other countries on television.

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French premier Barnier meets Marie Le Pen of National Rally. National Rally says it will veto any policies that reduce the purchasing power of the French people. Barnier lays out austerity policies and cuts in spending. National Rally had 8 seats, after this year's election it has 125 seats in the National Assembly. The Socialist bloc is the largest party but lacks amajority to form a government. Les Republicains party, Macron's party with National Rally's support are running the administration till another election is called to clear up the situation of no party having a majority. Macron remains president till May 2027 to oversee the situation.

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Birthright Citizenship Case at the Supreme Court of the US.- Arguments live from Courtroom at SCOTUS. History shows that much of the 19th and 20th century was spent keeping Asians out of the US, even the Chinese who built the railroads. One of the Chinese whose parents came to the US Wong Kim asked to stay and the Supreme Court ruled in that individual and single isolated case in 1898 that he could stay. Only after JFK and LBJ was immigration gradually opened to Chinese and Indians and Asians in general. By the end of the 20th century this went to the other extreme from no Asians allowed to birthright citizenship for Asian mothers to obtain citizenship in this way just by arriving in New York, clearly with no justification. Even Britain abandoned this idea of birthright citizenship in 1981,  with parentage required uder a new law, one parent citizenship required, 10 years of residence required. Even this relevant fact was not cited by the Solicitor General of the US when he presented the case to the Court in opening summary on April 1, 2026. With Britain removing itself from this practice, it makes no sense to practice birthright citizenship as there is such thing as the Republican view of this- it is the universal view now of all civilized modern nations. With one or two exceptions for unique reasons ( a largely unpopulated country) such as Canada, which may also amend this law. The fact that Asians were not allowed for a century even after some "coolies" built the railroads in the US does not mean it is now time to go to the other extreme to welcome all who come even under the most egregious means. Asians themselves will recognize and support this, now that the "coolie" culture and colonialism is long gone and Asians are part of the fabric of this country. None of this will be mentioned at the Supreme Court just esoteric argument around what a term was accidentally inserted in the case for the one Chinese admitted under that case in 1898 - "Under the jurisdiction thereof." And lawyers will argue around technical points, one more reason for the public disbelief in the SCOTUS. Yet most Asians can be grateful for the process initiated by JFK and LBJ that opened up lawful immigration to the US for Asians, and have the curiosity and eagerness to learn the history of this new Nation and its boundless energies that reshaped our world, to learn about its European heritage and cultures, not ask for more such as birthright citizenship. ...

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The Guardian looks at food poverty in the UK in 2022. About 800,000 children living in poverty in the UK do not qualify for free school meals. The rise in the price cap for electricity and gas this winter to 3549 pounds for the year from October means many homes will have to choose between heating and food. Energy price regulator Ofgem has allowed a 80% rise in the UK energy price cap. In Britain only children whose parents earn less than 7400 pounds are eligible after year 2 of school.

The energy price jump in UK of this type is unusual for the major countries of Europe. In France the price of energy is capped and Germany offers  financial support for energy bills for low income people. 

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insurance rates for oil tankers of 0.25% of ship's value increase to 1-2% in Iran war for Straits of Hormuz, US Development Finance Corporation says it will offer reinsurance to insurers to cap the price shippers pay. There is no shortage of insurers to insure ships for the Straits of Hormuz, Lloyd's of London is open for business. Shipping executives say they are concerned about the safety of the crew members, that it is about more than insurance. About 1000 shipos are waiting outside the Straits of Hormuz to make the journey through the Straits. At its narrowest point it is only 19 miles making it possible to plant mines in that area. The US is taking action and has sunk many Iranian minelayer ships.