LyrArc Article Gist
Lessons from an Italian family about staying fit and getting exercize during the lockdown within the home. The father is part of a running team in Rome. He has spent 18 days with his wife and teenage son at home already, as Italy remains in quarantine. He can't run the Rome marathon so he and his friends divide the 42 kilometres so that each person runs 1 kilometre at home. Other advice- plan your day carefully, stay in different rooms so its easier to spend a whole day, and the next day and the next together. do some hobbies, exercize to stay fit. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The cost of tution for four year colleges has doubled in the U.S. since 1985 even after adjustment for inflation, according to the College Board. Over 3 million households in the U.S. owe more than $50,000 in student loans. Ths is ten times the figure of 300,000 in 1989, and about four times the figure of 794,000 in 2001. Upper middle income families with incomes between $94,000 and $205,000, based on Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. Federal Reserve data, shows they owed an average of $32,869 in college loans in 2010, up from $26,639 in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. This is affecting the choices parents and students in the middle class are making of colleges, preferring to go to second tier colleges to better manage the costs of tution.

LyrArc Article Gist
About 600 US and European company brands are leaving Russia. This report in the WSJ shows how ordinary Russians are coping with jobs in limbo. Many of these companies are continuing to pay employees but jobs remain uncertain. This includes companies like Sweden's IKEA that are popular in Russia. As western sanctions make operating difficult companies future is uncertain. This is creating anti-Western sentiment particularly in the rural areas which use mostly Russian made products and which are Putin's main source of support. Even Russians who question the attacks on Ukraine are skeptical how the withdrawal of these companies helps find a solution for Ukraine. This is happening even as the errors made by 4 term German chancellor of increasing the dependence of Germany on Russian energy supplies from 36% during Putin's annexation of Crimea to 55% today are becoming abundantly clear.That makes an energy embargo on Russia difficult for Europe, with German business saying this would be "catastrophic" because it is unprepared even though this alone provides about $1 billion a day to Putin's Russia. Meanwhile EU and other western leaders call attention to India's drawing 1-2% of its energy supplies from Russia even though one month of Indian imports is equal to just one afternoon of European oil and gas imports from Russia. India has done more than Merkel's Germany to meet the need for humanitarian vaccine assistance for the poor countries of Asia and Africa, Middle East, and is now engaged in meeting the needs of the world for foodgrains after the fallout from an Ukraine crisis that is a result of emboldening of Russia from Merkel's policies.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Matt Dickinson of The times of Lonson gives this story of the youngest winner of the Tour de France, 22 years old,  from a small town 25 miles north of Bogota, Colombia. His dad is a guard for the local cathedral and is his son's motor pacer and mechanic.  Cycling is huge in Colombia. Zipaquira is 2600 metres or 8600 feet up in the Andes mountains. A nearby climb of 23 kilometres is described by Bernal as his "office" and his father rides up ahead with him on this daily training.  In the trials Bernal was 22nd and this never fazed him even though on Stage 13 in Pau he fell behind colleague Geraint Thomas by 1 minute 22 seconds. In the final run in the Alps Julian Alaiphilippe of France who had shaken up the race faltered, Geraint Thomas  also did not keep up. so that Bernal with the Andean training and serious work prevailed with 1 minute 11 seconds to spare to win. Much of his maturity comes from working within a family where the mom and dad live together to keep costs down but have separated. As the elder of two children Bernal gained maturity in having to work with both parents to keep the home together. The first thing he has done with his new earnings is to buy a flat for his mom. Sky team's Brailsford who hired Bernal describes the confidence and maturity he has encountered in Bernal. At 22 years of age he is seen as having a bright future ahead of him. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
An independent parliamentary panel in Japan described the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster as a "profoundly man-made disaster." It was sharply critical of TEPCO, the company running the plant, and the Japanese government's response. The investigation chairman Kiyoshi Kurokawa said in the report: "What must be admitted- very painfully- is that this was a disaster 'Made in Japan,' its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to 'sticking with the program'; our groupism; and our insularity." This comes as a report by TEPCO shifted public attention to "a tsunami beyond our imagination," creating a large credibility gap with the Japanese people, because the public is skeptical about TEPCO's attention to safety during the period leading to the accident. The parliamentary report calls attention to safety factors that were ignored so that companies would be required to take further steps including costly modifications of plant equipment. A critical flaw was the lack of a independent safety agency that could enforce safety measures that TEPCO might be reluctant to make because of cost considerations. Astonishing as this may sound, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) in Japan is part of the same government ministry that promotes nuclear power, creating a sort of "nuclear bloc," which before the accident connected the safety agency to the bloc. Because of this the panel report says, NISA did not require TEPCO to prepare for a full station blackout- the loss of main and backup power- because the "probability was small." Other factors that need to be addressed are the breakdown in communication and cooperation between the people operating the plant and the people responsible for Japan's nuclear safety. The prime minister's office waited too long before declaring a state of emergency. To come up with the conclusions the panel made 1000 intervews and conducted 900 hours of hearings. The questions left behind by the nuclear accident in Japan are whether Japan should continue with the same level of dependence on nuclear power, whether it should shift out of nuclear power on a gradual basis as Germany is doing ironically after the Fukushima accident while Japan is reactivating its nuclear plants to meet energy needs. If Japan continues with a smaller reliance on nuclear power what changes have to take place for an effective safety agency completely outside the "nuclear bloc," and the series of other changes that have to take place in the nuclear power industry's handling of safety. Public opposition continues to focus on this because of distrust of the nuclear power industry after the accident....

LyrArc Article Gist
David Leonhardt talks to Raghuram Rajan, Mr Obama, and other experts on how the government should act after the stress test results are announced. Has the government toned down the results of the stress tests, and is it paying too much deference to Wall Street. Leonhardt put this question to Obama, why he asked his advisers were key figures of Mr Rubin's inner circle, Mr Geithner and Mr Summers, who like Rubin are inclined to have too much deference to Wall Street. Obama's answer was that he had other advisers outside of Summers and Geithner. Which wasn not convincing for Leonhardt considering the key positions Geithner and Summers hold. Rajan of the University of Chicago who anticipated the crisis, was not too reticent to criticize Greenspan policies and was in turn criticized for that by Summers, told Leonhardt that certain things may be presented as holy cows not to be touched for fear of something bad happening, but until you find out you cannot be sure. This applies to the bank rescue plans. Should the creditors of banks be asked to take haircuts or swap debt for equity. This may be necessary as there just isn't enough money in TARP - $130 billion left in TARP funds versus the $1 trillion that the IMF thinks American banks may need for solvency in the next 2 years- to do the bank rescue operations. Should the administration consider this a holy cow as Wall Street is suggesting, or come to its own conclusions independently of what Wall Street is saying. Wall Street has to look at it from its vantage point out of sheer necessity, not from what is the best option for someone in the administration's position, considering all the facts without any preconceived ideas or notions....

LyrArc Article Gist
Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke says he plans to keep interest rates low till the end of 2014. Bernanke told a news conference after a two day policy meeting of the Fed April 23-24: "It's a little premature to declare victory. Keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy."

LyrArc Article Gist
The domestic German public opinion has shifted against further bailouts to the point where a poll conducted July 1-5 before the referendum shows only 10% of German supporting further concessions in negotiations with Greece. This reduces even further the room domestic public opinion gives German chancellor Merkel for flexibility in talks following the Greece referendum "no" vote to earlier proposals from Germany and France. The multi year program planned for Greece following the referendum involves reforms such as making firing workers easier, changes to product markets and privatization of state assets, which were left out in the June 2 proposal from Merkel and Hollande, which was rejected at the time by Greece.

LyrArc Article Gist
In his campaign announcement for 2024 Mike Pence says "the Republican party must always be the party of the Constitution of the United States." Pence former US Vice President says he chose the Constitution over Mr. Trump on January 6, 2020. The Constitution of the United States of America says "We the People..," no one individual has importance. The actual words are- "We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, to establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common Defense, promote the General Welfare and secure the Blessings of Liberty on Ourselves and our Posterity, do hereby ordain and establish the Constitution of the United States." Mike Pence showed he understood the sacrifices of the founders and soldiers who fought for the Union against the British Empire and what it means to "secure the Blessings of Liberty on Ourselves and our Posterity."

LyrArc Article Gist
India's inflation rate declined to 4.4% in Nov. 2014 and 5% in Dec. 2014. Price pressures are moderating throughout the economy. With lower oil prices in 2015 and long term trend for lower prices the outlook has improved for controlling inflation. The central bank governor Rajan cut rates by one quarter of a percentage point in Jan. 2015 and indicated further rate cuts are ahead to boost economic growth. The financial markets reflect a 1% decline in interest rates and the stock markets were up 2% in Jan. 2015

LyrArc Article Gist
Most Americans pay less in taxes, including state, local and federal taxes, today than in 1980 in inflation adjusted dollars. The taxes have gone down by 2-3% for incomes in the range of $50,000 to $150,000, and gone down by 3-4% for incomes between $150,000 and $350,000. Taxes have gone down over 7% for incomes above $350,000. The main reason is the decline in federal income taxes.Tax rates increased in the period to 1990 and declined from 1990 to 2010. The Democratic party and president Obama are pushing for increase in taxes for incomes above $250,000. Republicans are resisting the changes citing disincentives to investment and growth for small business which generates a large proportion of new jobs created in the U.S. economy. The New York Times study shows the percent of the U.S. population that makes between $200,000 and $350,000 almost doubling in the period 1980-2010 and at the same time its share of the U.S. income remaining the same - many small business owners who hire employees would fall into this income category. Republican's response is for tax reforms that reduce loopholes, deductions and other tax expeditures that disproportionately help the wealthy. Democrats say this cannot create enough revenues to address the deficit, when mortgage deductions, charitable deductions are excluded. The back and forth is leading to stalemate but also opening up discussion for the first time on whether the mortgage and charitable deductions make sense in today's environment. A significant portion of revenues lost in the mortgage deduction goes to affluent households, subsidizing larger borrowings to build larger homes than otherwise, according to the Brookings Institution. Politicians have resisted changes that would go against powerful lobyying groups in the past, yet the impasse has opened up new thinking outside the box because of the pressing need to come up with a solution....

LyrArc Article Gist
What is it like in Fushun, China? A city of 1.7 million in northern China it was a city that led in China's revolution against feudal regime and colonial occupation, and in cutting the birth rate. It is similar in size to Detroit, yet has only 5000 births compared to 20,000 in Detroit. Signs of aging are everywhere in Fushun as China's birthrate drops below 1.  For population to remain stable birthrate has to be 2.1. It is 0.7 in Fushun.

In Fushun most refineries and coal mines are closed. A third of the population is over 60 years old and half of the young people have left the city. In 10 years half of the population will be 60 years old. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Comedian and politician Beppe Grillo, from Genoa, who leads the Five Star Movement party. This party has increased its support from 4% in 2011 to about 18% in recent opinion polls. Grillo is a moderate liberal who has benefitted from the unpopularity of austerity measures taken by prime minister Mario Monti and the rapidly declining support for Berlusconi's People of Freedom party after recent coruption scandals. He has opposed traditional politics of established parties since 2005 when he pulled together people over social media and the internet. Support for political parties in Italy is rapidly fragmenting with Berlusconi's party dropping to 17% in polls and no party having significant support. In this situation business leaders support a continuation of the Mario Monti government beyond the April elections if no party gets a mandate from voters. Grillo says his movement is similiar to other movements that oppose the euro and austerity measures such as the Marie Le Pen movement in France. It is against this background that the Social Democrats in Germany have united behind Peer Steinbruck, a former finance minister, who has the best chance against Merkel in 2013 elections for chancellor in Germany. Most of the difficult and necessary actions that Merkel and the German public have supported are already taken- the changes in labor laws in Italy, France's 2013 budget that targets 3% deficit in 2013, efforts of Italy, France and Spain to improve competitiveness- and capital markets continue to provide vigilance in this direction, creating a situation where Merkel may have exhausted her effectiveness. This creates an opening for a change in policy in the eurozone that offers more German flexibility on stabilizing the eurozone and supporting the embattled governments of Monti in Italy and Rajoy in Spain facing popular protest and not enjoying the kind of support Monti says France has from Germany....

LyrArc Article Gist
Lyrarc Renewal America Insight For three decades America neglected its infrastructure. The Biden administration is moving quickly after the passage of the $1 trillion infrastructure package. Of the $1 trillion in infrastructure package passed into law, $120 billion is for competitive grant programs, money going to states for specific projects. WSJ shows how $1.5 billion in grants for doing the planning for projects is spent concentrating resources on key priorities. Projects getting priority are for improving bicycle and pedestrian safety getting 18%, road projects getting 50%, transit 18%, maritime 8%. Projects favored will reduce carbon emissions, increase bicycle paths, reconnect neighborhoods left out in earlier highways built. They include projects in St Louis County, Missouri for walking around safely, new transit center in Charlotte, N.C., and improvements in streets, sidewalks and bicycle paths in parts of Manchester, New Hampshire. Pete Buttigieg, Transportation Secretary is leading this effort. He says this will "improve infrastructure, strengthen supply chains, make us safer, advance equity, and combat climate change." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Friedman on the $110 billion to fight wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan that does little to advance American interests and values. Especially today when the peoples of the Middle East are struggling to be free of the corrupt military regimes that have ruled their countries, and are trying to setup democratic processes in their countries. The pressing needs at home which are better attended to with these funds. The need to redirect some of this to help young people in the Muslim world bring new hope, development and democratic processes to their countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT editorial talks about growing inequality and the falling back of both the people below the poverty line defined as $22,205 for afamily of four, and the falling back of the middle class. According to the Census Bureau median household income fell in 2008 to $50,300 from 52,200 in 2007. Economists Piketty and Saez found that from 2002 to 2007 the top 1% of households- those making ,ore than $400,000 a yea- received two thirds of the USA's total income gains, largest sine the 1920's.

LyrArc Article Gist
Laffer says that starting in September 2008, the Bernanke Fed has radically increased the monetary base, comprised of currency in circulation, member bank reserves held at the Fed, and vault cash, by almost $1 trillion. See graph. The percent increase in the monetary base is the largest increase in the last 50 years by a factor of 10, he says, and its outside of anything we have ever experienced. The currency in circulation component which previously comprised 95% of the monetary base, has risen by a little less than 10% while bank reserves have increased 20 fold. With such large reserves banks are lending more money. The 12 month growth rate of M1 is now in the 15% range. But he sees reduced demand for money as confidence is restored in the banking system. He sees the drop in output and manufacturing and employment leading to further reduction in the demand for money. His view is that the reduced demand for money, and the rapid growth in the money supply, will lead to higher interest rates and inflation, unlike anything experienced in th 1970's. The backdrop to this is the huge liabilities taken on by the federal government in the auto and banking bailouts, and through the stimulus and other programs, with a deficit he projects at 13% of GDP. Steps the Fed could take such as issuing $1 trillion in new bonds to contract the monetary base, become difficult, considering that the Treasury plans issuance of $2 trillion in new bonds in the next 12 months. The alternative is to increase the reserve requirements of banks to restrain the growth in the money supply. A too rapid contraction of the money supply would cause the economy to go back into a recession. See Paul Krugman in the NYT, June 15, 2009, who cautions against reversing course. Krugman says the Fed increased reserve requirements in 1937, leading to putting the economy back into a slump. Krugman responds to Laffer by saying that the economy faces deflationary trends, and is in a liquidity trap where policymakers cannot cut interest rates further, making inflation less of a threat at this time. Krugman says overcrowding of private investment is not happening, as government is only stepping in where private investors have retreated....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Vickers commission, has been appointed by the Cameron government to look into the British banking system and the largest banks. Ringfencing to protect retail deposits from the bank's other investment activities has been suggested. The focus is on increasing capital requirements as critical to protecting British taxpayers and the banking system. This means going beyond the Basel 3 requirements to build an extra safety buffer for the types of situations the British government was faced with in HBOS, where losses were even greater than average. Determining this should be coordinated with EU and Basel regulators.

LyrArc Article Gist
Even with the growth strategies of the Abe administration in 2014, projections of the IMF show growth rate for Japan are at 1.0% for 2015, compared to 3% for the U.S., 2.5% for UK, and 1.6% for Germany. The Third Arrow in prime minister Abe's Three Arrows program now follows the implementation of the other two Arrows- monetary easing and public works spending. Abe is faced with the task of convincing foreign and domestic investors that he can implement a winning growth strategy for Japan. The plan announced in June 2014 is an effort to overcome barriers to growth with a strategy that will work. The core of the plan is to cut the corporate tax rate from 35.64% to below 30% in the next couple of years. The corporations are expected to do their part to improve corporate governance and return on equity, so that shareholders, domestic and foreign investors, have more incentives to invest in the Japanese stock market. Analysts and economists say this plan has attractive features. It asks Japanese companies to increase ROE and ROI to global levels through a Tokyo Stock Exchange corporate governance code. Companies listed on TSE and not following the code will have to come up with reasons why they are failing to do so. Some analysts say this would increase the value of companies. Companies are more likely to make investments with cash that is not being invested. The plan includes measures for bringing more women into the workforce, which is seen as a serious committment to women. In addition to increasing the number of child care centers, this plan includes tax revisions that benefit women joining the workforce. Increased representation for women at the executive level is also part of this plan. Hiroshige Seko, a top adviser to Abe, says importance was given to execution for results, so that a score of 80 with definite results was preferred to an uncertain attempt to get a 100. To do this some compromises were made. The plan for special economic zones is still in the drafting stage as discussion is just beginning. A shakeup of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives and more flexible medical care will be taken up gradually. The efforts to increase ROI, ROE, and improve corporate governance were initiated from the time of the Koizumi administration, and the latest plan may bring results after over a decade of effort in this direction....

LyrArc Article Gist
Siome things that emerge from this report are that Thain spent some $1.2 million in redecorating his office after Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch. This was after the near demise of Merrill from taking excessive risks. Sources also say Thain asked for a $30 million to $40 million bonus which was not approved. A few days before the Merrill deal was finally concluded on January 1, under stressful circumstances because of Merrill's huge impending losses, Thain issued bonuses of millions of dollars to Merrill executives. See the links to Merrill for the pattern of giving bonuses worth 100 times the salary to Merrill executives under a former CEO of Merrill Lynch in 2006 and 2007.