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Typical of so much of what is written about the World Health Organization and its role in the pandemic, this podcast in the WSJ fails to quickly convey the critical function of the WHO as an early warning system the world has depended on, including China. The H1N1 epidemic originated in Mexico. Asian countries including China and India depended on very quick response from the country where the epidemic originated  in allowing entry into the affected area for experts from advanced countries such as the U.S. The global response was then coordinated across countries quickly with complete transparency. The head of China's CDC himself faced a problem with transparency with the provincial authorites in Wuhan. 1.    Fundamentally this quick entry was denied the U.S. Request by U.S. to China was made on Jan. 6 for U.S. team to go to Wuhan, quick permission was denied and given only about 6 weeks later on Feb 16. This delay is the crux of the problem for the U.S.. Taiwan confirmed human to human transmission on Jan. 1, the WHO was saying this was not clear as late as Jan. 14. These costly delays are what the U.S.  letter is about.  The head of the CDC China Gao Fu called Dr. Redfield head of CDC in the U.S. on the next day after he suspected Wuhan provincial authorites were vague about what was happening. Gao Fu was alarmed when scanning the internet on December 30, 2019, about rumors of a vaguely worded lung disease in internal memos of Wuhan. He called Wuhan authorites and was not getting clear answers on that day, then deciding on December 31 to send his own team to Wuhan, as reported in German magazine Der Spiegel- Hackenbroch, Zand, 05/20/2020.  Der Spiegel says in its special report on the early period in Wuhan that Gao Fu was so alarmed about what was happening enough to be in tears in his series of calls with Dr. Redfield in the immediate days that followed. The date was shortly after the GAO Fu sent the team to Wuhan, December 31 and New Years Day 2020, as reported in Der Spiegel. See the link to Lyrarc gist of Der Spiegel's "A Failed Deception: The Early Days of the Coronavirus in Wuhan."  2.  President Trump points out the standards of the WHO- in the concluding point of his letter to WHO- when a three time prime minister of Norway, Gro Brundtland was head of the WHO during the SARS crisis of 2003. She acted quickly and decisively and no time was lost. It is this failure of the early warning system under the new president of the WHO after 2017 Dr. Tedros that alarms the U.S.  with about 100,000 deaths.  3.  This failure it can now be said was partly a result of a election in 2017 for the position of WHO president which was flawed. This was the first time a WHO head, an important position was put up for an election. The Executive Board was responsible for this appointment since the founding of the WHO as part of the UN, based in Geneva, Switzerland, after World War II. This system worked. The election was clearly a bad process for appointing the president of the WHO which should be done entirely on the capabilities of the person holding this position not on a flawed voting process. It is flawed because India and Bangladesh hit by a cyclone during the coronavirus have suffered greatly, as have other countries, but had only 2 votes for 1.5 billion people, when Barbados (385,000 population) and Laos (7 million) which had less than one  hundredth the population had the same number of votes. The U.S. had one vote. The election resulted in lobbying and a process in which many candidates stayed away because they simply would not go through such a process. The position was too important to the world- most of the advanced countries had forgotten about the danger of epidemics to let this happen by 2017, as shown in the way the austerity years led to cancellation of the preparations for pandemic in France and Britain. The austerity years and neglect of public health during these tech boom years in the western world made it possible for this to happen. 3.   Along with the 1 month ultimatum action is already being taken to restore the effectiveness of the importance of the Executive Board. The head of the health ministry in India, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, has been appointed the new chairman of the Executive Board on May 22. This restores the voice of billions of people in Asia in the process, and brings the major countries with the greatest risk in a pandemic into the decision process for tackling the pandemic, this includes the rest of the world.     ...

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The Wall Street Journal's editorial columns have followed closely the working of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac over the years. Especially during the last decade, when most of the excesses, missteps and failures in the operations of the two companies occurred at huge cost to the US economy and to taxpayers. The Journal quotes from the recent Treasury report on the planned winding down of the two agencies. And focusses attention on the question of what will replace Fannie and Freddie. Only the first of three options looks viable considering the goals of reducing misallocation of national resources, and winding down the federal government's role in housing, says the Journal. With this Option the federal government guarantees are limited to Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans to low income buyers and VA assistance for veterans and farm programs- narrow segments that limits the guarantee strictly to 10-15% of the mortgage market. The Journal says that the conclusions of the Treasury report are what WSJ has been saying for 20 years: " The strength of this option is that it would minimize distortions in capital allocation across sectors, reduce moral hazard in mortgage lending and drastically reduce direct taxpayer exposure to private lender's losses." And the points about the benefits: " With less incentive to invest in housing, more capital will flow into other areas of the economy, potentially leading to more long-run economic growth and reducing the inflationary pressure on housing assets. Risk throughout the system may also be reduced, as private actors will not be as inclined to take on excessive risk without the assurance of a government guarantee behind them. And finally, direct taxpayer risk exposure to private losses in the mortgage market would be limited to the loans guaranteed by FHA and other narrowly targeted government loan programs: no longer would taxpayers be at direct risk for guarantees covering most of the nation's mortgages." This bit of wisdom is especially significant, as misallocation of capital that went on in housing for the better part of the last decade has hurt America and the American people. It makes sense to have explicit money allocated by Congress for housing help to the poor and have no housing guarantees that have hurt the economy....

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The merger between U.S. based Omnicom Group and France based Publicis Groupe SA, two of the largest ad agencies. The merger is a response to the increasing shift to digital advertising, the shift to advertising being sold in automated trading, and data driven analysis. In all these shifts digital companies such as Google and Facebook have strong advantages. Around 22% of global ad spending is now digital, according to emarketer, with forecasts showing this going up to 27% by 2017. Automated buying of ad space is taking off. U.S. advertisers are expected to spend $3.4 billion on real-time bidding. Omnicom's CEO, John Wren tells analysts: "Digital buying of media is done by machines, as if you are standing on the floor of the Nasdaq as opposed to traditional media shop. I hold the long term belief that eventually traditional media, or a lot of traditional media is going to be purchased that way." Just as computers have upended the environment for traditional players such as the NYSE creating new opportunities for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), computers and the internet are changing the advertising environment. CEO Levy of Publicis Groupe SA says the data explosion, Big Data, is also creating a new playing field in which companies such as Google and Facebook have advantages. In a statement about the deal he says: "the communication and marketing landscape has undergone dramatic changes in recent years, including the exponential development of new media giants, the explosion of Big Data, blurring of roles of all players and profound changes in consumer behaviour." The merger will provide the new company the scale to develop these resources to compete with digital companies like Google and new entrants such as Salesforce.com and Adobe Systems. Omnicom has agencies BBDO, TBWA Worldwide, media buyer OMD. Publicis has Leo Burnett and Saatchi & Saatchi, media buyer Starcom MediaVest and digital agency Razorfish. The new Publicis Omnicom Group will have combined revenue of about $23 billion for 2012, and passes WPP Group PLC's $15.95 billion revenue. It will still be much smaller than Google with about 3 times WPP's revenue, and Google's advantage in storing trillions of pieces of data about user behaviour....

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With $3.5 trillion dollars of commercial real estate debt outstanding, amid collapsing real estate prices, there is concern that this will hamper economic recovery. About $700 billion of commercial real estate mortgaes were packaged into securities and sold to pension funds, college endowments, foundations and other investors. This means the pain will be felt across the country, even in this small Ozark town of Springfield, Missouri, where the police and firefighters union has invested its entire 11% real estate allocation of $12 million in PRISA, a real estate fund of Prudential Insurance. Prudential in the boom years like 2005, was making as much as 25% return and large fees, and it marketed these products across the country. Even in a loss year of 2008 this generated $89 million in fees for PRISA. It decided to build 11 Times Square with a developer, 1.1 million square foot skyscraper in New York city, and the piece of that in the form of a security was marketed in this small Ozark town at a meeting between a Prudential representative and the towns pension fund board members, 1 policeman, 3 firemen and 2 city officials. The pension fund valued before the financial crisis at $131 million is now valued at $91 million, with 10% tied up in PRISA. A request for redemption of $5 million was rejected. The irony is that the pension fund was trying to boost returns to 7.5% from 5% on the advice of actuaries, to better fund the retiree obligations. The developer of the skyscraper Pozycki only comitted $15 million, or 4% of the equity, in exchange for developer's fees, having been burnt by earlier deals in the 1990's. As the building is nearing completion in 2009, not a single tenant has signed up. A loss of 50% is expected by 2009, because of so much vacant office space in New York city. Prudential will continue to collect its fees. And in Springfield the the losses will lead to budget cuts, reducing how often park lawns are mowed, and roads maintained, eliminating the summer concert series, multi-family housing inspections, and aservice to trap skunks and feral cats....

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It is a landmark agreement and more innovative than the GM and Chrysler agreeements, with the UAW getting a significant stake in Ford, something that is a first. UAW supported money going into creating 5 flexible body shops so that investment to get Ford new models and manufacturing capability is put in place in this agreement- showing union management unanimity in understanding Ford's situation. The UAW Ford Agreement details: UAW gets about 18% ownership of Ford and becomes Ford's largest shareholder with about 4 times the shares of the Ford family. Ford will build 5 new flexible body shops in unionized assembly plants, invest separately $200 million in new technology and equipment in unionized stamping plants, and make substantial new investments in engine operations. All new hires will get a starting rate of $14.20 an hour and a full rate of $15.34 an hour, nearly half the curtrent level and its good till Ford reaches 20% of the Ford UAW workforce. When this is reached for entry level positions Ford must first move those hired at the lower wage upto the higher wage before filling in more positions at the lower rate. The VEBA health trust will work this way. Ford will only put in $6.5 billion in cash into the trust and $450 million each year in current dollars. The rest is done innovatively to conserve cash and give the union a stake in Ford that will be a first time in such a deal. It may change the labor vs. management atmopsphere in the long run as Ford recovers. A $3.3 billion convertible debenture note will be issued giving the union a stake of about 18% at current share prices, which terms are still not clear. Ford will also issue a $3 billion secured note. And to cover retiree health obligations until the trust makes payments Ford will pay $2.2 billion. The Jobs Bank is restricted to 2 years. After 2 new job offers are declined the worker goes off the payroll. Ford will also trim about 10,000 to 14,000 workers with buyout packages. ...

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When experts say corporate earnings and balance sheets are healthy this is because they are speaking of the situation in aggregate. Companies that benefitted from the commodities boom like the oil companies and companies like Microsoft and Apple have hundreds of billions of dollars, but this is very deceptive and misleading. About two thirds of nonfinancial companies, 1600 companies, carry a junk rating according to S&P. How does this compare with earlier periods? Its up 50% from the beginning of the last bust in 2000 and 40% higher than in 1990. Also Wall Street hugely expanded the market for speculative floating rate loans with $1.2 trillion raised like this in the last 4 years to 2007, according to Thomson Reuters. And the junk bonds are much junkier. Between 2003 and 2007 lenders financed $194 billion worth of bonds in the bottom tier of non investment grades with B- or below. And that was twice the amount of the previous 4 years. Histoically it should be noted 23% of bonds in this group default within 3 yearsafter they are issued vs just 3% in the top 3% of junk. Which companies are likely to default? Amusement park operator Six Flags, construction products maker Georgia Gulf, trucking company Swift Transportation, and sports equipment maker Easton-Bell Sports. Private Equity owners who have loaded the companies they own with debt also could default. This includes real estate brokerage operator Realogy, newspaper company Tribune and pizza chain Uno Holdings. S&P's estimate that the default rate among US junk rated borrowers will jump from 1% last year to 4% this year but other experts estimate it at around 8%. And if history is any guide it will probably be in double digits. After the 2 lending booms the one in late 1980's for LBO's and commercial real estate and for telcom and tech in the late 1990's default rates reached double digits. And with a recession one expert Fridson of research service FridsonVision estimates default rates of upto 16% for two consecutive years considering the huge amount of debt that has built up....

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After a second round of price increases P&G's last price increase of 10% leads to first quarter revenues up 4% on sales volume declines of 3% for the first quarter of 2023. The company making Gillette razors, Charmin toilet paper and Tide detergent for household supplies has shown the persistence of inflation as companies increase prices to pass on the increase in price of raw materials. Some of this money will go to buy back stock- P&G plans to buy back $8 billion of its own stock. Companies such as P&G are countering criticism of price increases by saying they offer premium products or use the term "irresistable superiority" says this report in NYT. This leads to "profit price spiral" and adds to "wage price spiral" effects. A executive board member in eurozone says half of the price increases in EU can be attributed for the last quarter of 2023 to company profits.

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About a quarter of Michigan counties are among the top 20% of counties in America for increase in unemployment and deaths per 1000 residents from the coronavirus. Only Massachusetts and New Jersey have fared worse. This WSJ analysis was based on federal government county level unemployment data. In May Michigan's 21.2% unemployment rate was the third highest in America after Nevada and Hawaii, two states where tourism drop hit hard. In a place like Muskegon the loss of about a million tourists and loss of jobs at Howmet Aerospace hit hard. Recovery of tourism could bring down the rate quickly, yet manufacturing will take longer.

Other states with many counties in the top 20% for deaths from virus and unemployment are Indiana, Ohio, New Hampshire, Alabama, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, New York.

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Wirecard has filed for insolvency.The $2 billion missing in a bank account for Wirecard is more than all the profits it has made over 10 years. It got off the ground in 2016 after Credit Suisse and Softbank took interest in investing. This report in the WSJ shows the hazy history of the company and the details about the missing money in the bank account in the Philippines. Ernst and Young says it was deceived, and the money did not exist in the accounts, as reported in this video by the WSJ. The billions of dollars invested in companies like Wirecard, WeWork and other companies, could easily have funded the PPE equipment, facial masks, and other healthcare equipment held as a reserve for emergencies such as this pandemic, in any large region such as North America or the European Union.   For every Wirecard there are 10 others in every region of the world. Just in the last month several imploded including a coffee venture copied right off Starbucks each involving losses of billions of dollars. ...

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Cornavirus has hurt workers in the wage categories of less than $16 an hour to a much greater degree than workers who earn more than $16 or $28 as shown in this chart from the WSJ. Workers earning more than $28 are more likely to be working from home particularly workers offering professional services such as in software, legal, accounting. These are people who are well educated and well off, compared to people earning less than $16 an hour who are less educated and less well off. The worst hit are workers in restaurants, in the tourism industry, airline workers, who face uncertain prospects 6 months into the pandemic for the next 6 months. Government help to these workers is also uncertain and diminished because of budget constraints after the trillion dollars already injected into the economy in the U.S, and separately in Europe, and the significant help provided in other countries including India. This applies to the informal economy workers in India and Latin America who are the hardest hit outside U.S. and Europe, including street vendors. The informal economy is a large part of the economies of the countries in Asia and Latin America. China has reintroduced the informal economy in some cities as a way to take the pressure off the formal economy after the drop in demand for manufactured products from the U.S. and Europe. ...

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With vaccine hesitancy in the US the goal of vaccinating a large part of the US population is still elusive. Less than half of the US population is fully vaccinated as of July 30. The vaccination rates in the US are now much slower than India even taking into account the population difference. The vaccination in India is at the rate of 4 to 5 million a day for the past week in India. In the US this report in The Guardian shows 4.7 million vaccinated in the past 2 weeks. On July 30 856,000 people were vaccinated in the US compared to over 5 million in India.  Newspaper reporting that encourages vaccine hesitancy people to delay getting vaccinated because of poorly reported headlines is adding to vaccine hesitancy in the US. This has led to much frustration at the White House. The threat of the Delta variant is making more people to take vaccination. Southern states are seeing a jump in vaccinations. Many prominent Republicans are now endorsing vaccination.  One of the problems in tackling the Delta variant is the confusing nature of the CDC guidance on masks. On May 13 CDC issued guidance saying masks were not necessary indoors and outdoors. Now 3 months later in July the CDC says the threat of Delta variant means mask wearing is essential particularly indoors because of the higher transmissibility of the delta variant.  ...

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Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack of Iowa is one of the key people pushing for reviving Rural America. He has served as Agricultrue Secretary under a previous Democratic administration but lacked the resources for programs to keep young, aspiring and new would be farmers attracted to rural America and to farming. He sees the loss of 544,000 farms including small family farms in America since 1981 as a loss for rural America. He is now in a position to make a difference with $60 billion in funding in the Inflation Reduction Act. A former two term governor of Iowa 1999-2007 he is familiar with rural conditions in America's heartland and in agricultural states from Wisconsin and Minnesota to Nebraska and Colorado, from North and South Dakota to Missouri. Vilsack who has the ear of president Joe Biden says the loss of small farms has weakened rural America and wants to stop the bleeding. Lydia Phillips of NYT shows how billions of dollars of spending is now targeted at helping small farms plant a variety of crops that have more cash value than soyabeans and getting these to the market. A lot of the $60 billion goes to large farms for conservation and renewable energy. Vilsack is working hard to make it work for small farms and people in rural America, including generating many sources of income that includes money for renewable energy generated on small farms. ...

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Joe Biden will hit the campaign trial in key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin starting Labor Day. This is the Joe Biden who stood on a picket line in Detroit. Across these states white working class voters see Biden as having their interests at heart. The United Auto Workers endorsed Biden and Harris. And Kamala Harris says this of Biden in interview with CNN Dana Bash- "History is going to show, not only has Joe Biden led an administration that has achieved those extraordinary successes, but the character of the man is one that he has been in his life and career, including as a president, quite selfless and puts the American people first.” The extraordinary successes are the bipartisan legislation only Biden with 50 years in Congress could have achieved in this century- trillions of dollars going to fight the pandemic, fight inflation, fight the battle for bringing manufacturing home to America. And instead of Trump doing nothing for infrastructure after talking for years about it Biden has launched the biggest infrastructure effort in the US in 50 years. Never in recent history has so much been done in so short a time, with so much to follow, and never has it been so little reported or discussed. Yet history will show what Biden has set out to do and given the opportunity for his vice president to do in her turn.  ...

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Trump campaign manager, Paul Manafort, gets a more lenient sentence of 4 years for tax and bank fraud from a judge doing the sentencing. Prosecutors had asked for 13 to 24 years. Separately another sentencing takes place on a different charge next week.

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A vote on Brexit giving parliament a bigger voice if no deal is reached with the EU was defeated narrowly in parliament with 324 for and 298 against. Tory members led by Mr. Grieve called for parliament to take part in future strategy if no deal is reached by March 2019. British prime minister Theresa May argued that this would weaken Britain's negotiating position with the EU in Brussels. Mr. Grieve and Tory dissenters agreed to support the government. The recent election with Labor winning 40% of the vote leaves the Conservative Party's Mrs. May dependent on a small number of MP's from Northern Ireland for her government to survive. Some members of May's cabinet feel cutting off Britain from the EU market will hurt the economy in their districts, and a junior minister resigned. 

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Toyota benchmarks a production method of using MQB platform introduced by VW in 2012, and adopts it for its New Global Architecture for manufacturing plants. The method allows production of multiple models in one plant, and even on one production line, reducing costs by about 30%. The Prius and the Lexus will be made using this method, and Toyota will shift half its production to the new method by 2020.

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Too big to run is where the banks are today. Excellence in management would help, but banks have just grown too big, bigger than even before the crisis. Bank of America's 2.3 trillion dollars in assets is 10 times the size of Exxon says the Econmist, and they need to shrink and simplify things. And even with the deities at Goldman Sachs the bank remains a black box.

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Matthew Tsien, a vice president in GM China, will be the new president in Jan. 1, succeeded Bob Socia. Tsien will report directly to Dan Akerson, CEO of GM. Tsien is currently vice president of planning and program management and has experience working wih GM's joint ventures. The direct report helps to provide direct contact at the highest level with CEO Akerson. GM China chairman is Tim Lee, who is also executive vice president of global manufacturing. China provides about 30% of GM's global vehicle sales. GM is taking a new look at its China operations as increasing competition is eroding its market share. VW sales in China increased by 18% to 2.35 million cars and SUV's, in comparison GM sales were up 11% to 2.31 million, for the first 9 months of 2013. GM's plans going forward are to invest $11 billion in China through 2016 for 4 new assembly plants. This will boost annual production to 5 million vehicles in China by 2016.

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Like hundreds of thousands of other young migrant workers in China's factories, Yuan Yandong is from a rural area and lived on a farm. Better incomes have brought them to the factories in urban areas. In this case travelling long distance by train from Guangdong province to Shenzhen. As living standards improved across China and the government expressed a keen willingness to encourage workers to exercize their rights to fair wages and working conditons- especially by creating increased awareness of new labor laws in the state run media- migrant workers are becoming restless with conditions they accepted a few years ago. The growing use of cellphones and access to the internet have made news travel faster. A visit to a Foxconn factory shows a young worker, age 24, sitting on a stool 6 nights a week, 12 hours a night, with a quota to assemble 1600 hard drives for American computer storage company EMC, with the pressure to work continuously against the clock for each step in the manufacturing process. Foxconn is known for its highly disciplined nature of work, akin to a military style. Behind the scenes factories like Foxconn employ methods once used in the US at a similiar stage of industrialization, with 500 technical people continuously looking for the most efficient way to organize each step in the production process. Each movement and action of the worker is measured for time taken and process efficiency, according to experts at Tsinghua University in China. This means many factories can use less automation- and so less capital intensive manufacturing- and go to extremes where workers perform like machines. Yuan's ambition is to work only for another 2 years and then use his savings to get into hotel management. His wages are 75 cents an hour, and with the overtime premium about $235 a month. Foxconn announced a 33% raise in wages as a result of worker protests. The mind numbing monotony is becoming less acceptable in a changing China, and worker turnover in such factories is rising. After the initial burst of industrialization in which young migrant workers played a signifcant role in manufacturing, a new chapter in China's development is beginning- one less likely to create the large trade deficits with the US and Europe- which is moving in the direction of a larger domestic market with higher worker wages....

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Local investment companies were allowed to borrow beyond their limits after the financial crisis of 2008. There are about 8000 local investment companies (LIC's) and they were used during 2008-2010 to get funds quickly to projects. The LIC's borrowed for local governments, and borrowed extensively to build roads, railroads, power plants, and other infrastructure and buildings. Northwestern University Professor Shih has followed this carefully, and estimates LIC debt owed to banks at $1.68 trillion, or 34% of China's GDP. Some of the banks have collateral in land, but many banks are relying on the ability of the local governments to pay back the loans. And some of this is in money losing projects.

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Schools, shops, restaurants, cafes and offices are reopening and people are getting back to work and outdoors. What are the ways to reduce chances of getting the coronavirus and what is the latest advice from public health experts.  More attention is now being given by CDC and other experts to the aerosols, the smaller particles that are airborne that can spread the virus to people unawares in breathing, talking and singing activities. larger droplets come down to the ground, smaller droplets can be airborne for hours. This makes masks wearing very important, call it essential protection. Air filtration and proper ventilation is also important. What about social distancing? Experts now say 6 feet is good, 10 feet is better. This is from Joseph Allen director of the Healthy Buildings program at Harvard School of Public Health. No magic number but 6-10 feet or more is good for safety. Can one start expanding one's social circle? The fewer contacts the better says Dr. Allen. You can he says expand the circle but this depends a lot on how serious the other family is in taking precautions. Are elevators risky? If one can one should take stairs but do not board a crowded elevator unless the lobby is more crowded. Do not touch buttons, if you do use elbow or use sanitizer from your shirt pocket after pressing. This is where mask is essential. Here a tip is useful. Talking does not help as talking emits 10 times the particles than when you are quiet and this is true for small spaces such as elevators. Continual talk is not a good idea such as a long time spent talking, here watch that habit of getting into long conversations face to face.  Is it good to take a summer vacation. Here the answer is yes, as no one really knows how the winter will be. And remember outdoors is good for renewal of health, and one can look for places that are not crowded where the 10-12 feet or more can be easily done. One tip here is to take your own food and supplies from home so there is no need to go to crowded restaurants. Swimming in a lake or ocean is fine. Camping outdoors is fine and actually a good idea if you are with your own family. Try to use an empty restroom and one that is clean and wear the mask. While camping keep the 6-10 foot rule with people outside your immediate family, do not share food and drinks and try not to touch each other's supplies, and sanitize your hands or wash if you do. When hiking keep the mask in your pocket so you can wear it when you see others passing on trails. In hotels skip the cleaning service, in a rented property ask the owner to keep the windows open before you arrive, and put a day or two between your coming and the last person who rented the place. Renting a car is tricky allow a couple of hours to elapse between you and the last rental, open windows. Public restrooms. Always wear a mask many are poorly ventilated. Open the door without use of hands if possible,or use a paper towel to open and discard. Do not use air dryers. Is it safe for your house cleaning person to return. Keep the windows open to let in fresh air. Make sure your cleaner wears gloves. And all should wear masks. How to visit grandparents? Experts advise keeping visits outside and wearing masks when not 6-10 feet apart. Anyone not feeling healthy should avoid the visit. And bathrooms should be sanitized after people leave even wait a day if there is another bathroom. Experts advise against sharing food and buffet type meals. Ten feet distance is better than six feet. Can one use a gym? Here the advice is to exercize outdoors or at home if one can. It says be cautious unless your gym is limiting the number of people or spacing the equipment adequately. Ask about open windows, air filtration systems, ventilation.  This is excellent advice from experts with the latest information. Over the last few months from March to May most of the information was during lockdown, and a lot can be forgotten or seen as not necessary as things return to normal, as shops schools and cafes, office reopen, and cases remain steady and under control. Being vigilant is good for safely navigating this period through the summer and into winter till a vaccine is found. It is also about being a good civic minded person aware of one's own responsibilities, as when all take safety seriously and practice it everyday, it builds another layer of protection for everybody- because it creates a safer environment for all.     ...

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What Krugman makes of the $1.089 trillion dollar U.S. deficit for fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He points out that the U.S. can have a stable to declining debt to GDP ratio with $400 billion debt. He cites the Clinton years (1992-2000) when the debt to GDP ratio declined from 49% to 33% with steady growth. What about the remaining $600 billion. He attributes this mostly to temporary factors which are reversible as growth picks up. Of this remaining excess deficit he says $400 billion is from lower tax payments to Treasury because of the 2008 economic crisis and the recession that followed. This includes the payroll tax cut which is also temporary to keep up consumer spending in the recession. The $150 billion is from unemployment insurance, food stamps, and other aid which is also reversed once growth picks up. He places emphasis on restoring economic growth as early as possible and reducing unemployment and using the recession for business to continue to invest in R&D, productivity, and government to preserve the social fabric, invest in education, and provide incentives for growth. S&P Nov. 8 report says the net government debt to GDP ratio is estimated to be over 80% in 2013. It will have to stabilize at current levels for S&P to preserve the U.S. credit rating, says S&P executive Chambers. The higher debt to GDP ratio in 2013 and lower growth rates expected makes the situation different from the lower debt to GDP ratios during the Clinton period. Britain, France and other major industrialized nations with political parties at either end of the political specrum have also chosen to stabilize or reduce debt to GDP ratios rather than take on the risks of them going much higher. The U.S. has the added problem of health care costs out of control with an aging population and about 17.9% of GDP going to healthcare costs in 2010 expected to increase significantly, as Medicare actuaries estimate enrollee numbers jump to 80 million in 2030 from 50 million in 2012. Democrats and Republicans have largely sidestepped this underlying problem in fiscal cliff negotiations....

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Sinn Fein is very different today from what it was decades earlier as the political wing of the Irish Republican party. When Ireland became independent Britain retained a third of the country as part of the UK as Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein's goal was to reunify the country.  It is popular today along the border and in regions struggling with poverty, including rural areas. As a left of centre party it is unique in Europe as both the main parties are right of center. Housing is an issue for Sinn Fein because it is the first to call for government to play a role in building new housing to tackle a severe housing shortage. With social policies that include government involvement to support social programs, Sinn Fein is likely to be the largest party winning 25% of the votes, with Fiana Fail the current party getting 24%,  and Fine Gael 20%. Yet rival parties are not likely to form a coalition with Sinn Fein. It also shows how much has changed when Irish reunification is now on the agenda with a referendum in 5 years proposed by Sinn Fein, as an accepted feature of the political landscape with Britain leaving the European Union. Under Mary Lou Macdonald who is from Dublin, replacing Gerry Adams, the image of the party is very different today, compared to the violence tinged past of the links to the Irish Republican Army. Most supporters today have few memories of that period, growing up in the period after peace was established in Ireland between different factions.  The exit of Britain from the European Union has provided momentum to the idea of reunification of Ireland from all sides for the first time. The links to the EU are popular in all parts of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The links to the economic crisis of 2009 and free markets have tainted the record of Fiana Fail, long the dominant party.  In Northern Ireland Mr. McGuiness is succeeded by Michelle O'Neill, who was just 21 when the peace deal was signed. In Ireland Mary Lou McDonald entered politics after the peace deal and has a Dublin accent.  The new generation looks at the EU as a natural partner, distancing itself from England. It also thinks and acts differently than Sinn Fein of the past. In just the way Scottish independence has found its way as an accepted idea in Scotland, Irish unification is seen as a positive idea with its association with the European Union, ...

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After going into bankruptcy in 1994, the Orange County Employees Retirement System, decided to be much more careful about investing. Its also run by adiverse mix of board members representing union, management and taxpayer backkgrounds. There is a tension about investing at OCERS asmany opinions are taken into account. Steve Delaney heads OCERS. He says that even when equitieswere booming OCERS stayed away from high risk equities. As aresult even as the DJ average reached 10,000 CALPERS shows a 21% loss with 63% of assets in equities, and OCERS shows a8% loss with 38% in equities. The board at OCERS accepted that it would not make big profits on the upswing and not suffer big losses on the downswing. Orange County had achance three years ago to join CALPERS but stayed with asmall Orange COunty Pension Fund and now feel vindicated for their strategy.