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International arrivals to the US that were still down by about 35% in June last year over the pre pandemic levels of 2019, are going to be only about 20% below prepandemic 2019 levels this summer 2023. The cost of gasoline for people in the US is about $3.57 a gallon compared to $4.60 last summer. Justin Lahart in WSJ says Americans with steady checks and low unemployment are willing to spend on trips this summer. Among Americans about 40% still avoided travel by airplane, train or subway in 2022. This is now down to 18% or less in 2023.

Traditional vacations are up as old style remote work vacations are receding. Marriott, Hilton and other hotels, and airlines report strong demand. Older people who spend more are also joining the trend this summer leading to higher spending. This may even help the US avoid a recession, says Lahart.

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Stay at home lockdowns, closure of schools in South Africa and other African countries is harder because of lack of widespread internet, says this report in DW.com from South Africa. South Africa declared a 21 day lockdown on March 27. South Africa does better than the rest of Africa with 53% of the people able to use the internet. The internet access in other African countries is only for about one third of the people. This is actually lower than that in practice. Only 12% of Kenyans have internet in their homes, mostly in Nairobi and large cities, and 70% with internet access have this through their phones.

This provides opportunity to ensure wider use of radio as most homes have radio. There are new ways for teachers to interact with students. Teachers in Kenya hold a lesson on radio and students send in their questions on WhatsApp.

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People in China are drinking more milk and cream desserts, and eating more cheese with a shift in eating habits. Traditionally this was not a big part of Chinese food. Wholesale prices of skim milk powder have surged by 26%-47% in the U.S. and Europe with this increased Chinese demand. Earlier China imported more milk powder for baby infant formula after tainted product was discovered in domestically produced baby milk powder. In 2019 China imported about 33% more skim milk powder and 23% whole milk powder than 2018. 

Parents encourage milk drinking habit. Even the higher lactose intolerance in people from East Asia is not a problem in this increase in dairy consumption. Beneficiaries of this increase in demand are farmers in America, Europe and New Zealand after several years of difficult conditions. Dry conditions in Australia and northern Europe, higher feed costs, hurt dairy farmers.

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The pandemic has affected Brazil, and Peru, Ecuador, the worst in Latin America. Countries where there was a lack of funding for public health and no consensus on how to tackle the crisis such as Brazil have done worse. Brazil has 11 deaths per 100,000 people compared to just 1.0 for Argentina. Chile with a political crisis and months of protests has no consensus in the country. It has done worse with 4 deaths per thousand and 95% of intensive care beds in the country taken, leaving hospitals overburdened and in stressful conditions. 

In Argentina the lockdown has been extended till June 7 and there appears to be a consensus on the government's approach to the crisis. Mexico under president Obrador decided to reopen earlier and now faces more coronavirus cases. Reopening the economy so that people in the informal economy could provide for their families was a priority for president Obrador. 

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Concern about the spread of the pandemic in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and travel to visit family and friends. Seen from Australia and other countries American fatigue with staying at home is cause for concern. Yet this is not entirely American as governments in France plan to have a phased reopening by Christmas, with phase 2 partial lifting of restrictions of the lockdown on December 15. Austria has turned down German requests to close Austrian ski resorts that have cause spread in Europe. The Swiss have also kept ski resorts open. During the summer Croatia and parts of Spain kept open tourist spots to help the economy recover creating the conditions for spread as tourists went back home. 

Beyond this there a complex web of choices. From mental health to hospitals filling up, from jobs and income for service workers to people in nursing homes, all calling for different responses. 

 

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The US faces a shortage of hydroelectric power in western states as the runoff of water from the mountains is only 25% of its normal level. The drought in California and the lack of hydroelectric power will lead to blackouts in the state. Normally Hoover dam provides electricity to power 1.3 million homes with 23% going to Nevada, 13% to Arizona, and the rest to Southern California. With the water levels low in Lake Mead, Hoover Dam will provide only a small fraction of the electricity it normally does to California. Colorado river's Lake Powell which feeds into Lake Mead has only 25% of its normal water levels.

The dry winter and spring led to less snowpack to feed rivers and streams in California, with loss of enough water to produce electricity for about 1 million homes for a year. This means more blackouts will hit California and western states.

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For two decades young computer specialists in their 30's have tried to say the right things to the American people to gain approval- with AI this is where it all ends. Watching Murthi and Altman on Stern's interview in WSJ one senses a lack of awareness that this is too big a technology to be handled by a few computerized work  specialists. Murthi says the right things with a faltering conviction, Altman lacks conviction, yet both cannot take on the responsibilities for AI on their shoulders. The chief technology officer of OpenAI takes over role of Interim CEO with the departure of Sam Altman. She graduated from the Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth. She worked at Tesla before joining OpenAI. Murthi was in charge of Operations, managing the teams that delivered ChatGPT product in 2022, and handling the relationship with Microsoft which invested $13 billion for a 49% stake in OpenAI.

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The government of prime minister Narendra Modi defeats a non-confidence motion brought by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. The motion was defeated with 325 votes against and 126 votes in favor.

Prime minister Modi used the moment in parliament to give a report card of his administration in preparation for the 2019 elections. 

In his speech Modi focussed on the work accomplished and the tasks ahead for economic development. He stated India was well on its way to become a $5 trillion economy. The opposition tactics to foment discontent in the country and organize factional interests would not detract the government from its singleminded focus on development, he said. Modi emphasized that the pace of economic development could not be accelerated in the first 2 years of the Modi administration because of the bad loans in the country's banking system, a problem stemming from bad practices and corruption in the previous administration.

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Theresa May, prime minister of Britain, faced a difficult situation by Jan. 2017- the European Union was not going to budge on the free movement of people and services within the EU. With no prospects for negotiations on the migration issue and a decision to retake control of migration, May announced on Jan. 17, 2017, that she would pull Britain out of the single market. By Jan 2017 Theresa May was perceived in the media facing tough challenges and having no clear path, and no clear plan, and little support from the civil service, business, and within a divided Conservative party, to implement Brexit. This has not changed much even with this decision, as the additional hurdle of getting Scotland, Ireland and Wales, and the close to 50% of the people who voted against Brexit to support this move remains as large as ever, the situation of ample uncertainty, for May and for Britain.

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Trump says he supports the House Republican tax plan for three brackets 12%, 25% and 33%. In his earlier proposal Trump has supported a top rate of 25%. He made these comments, including support for deducting childcare costs, in a speech at the Economic Club of Detroit. Trump did not repeat a call for repealing Dodd-Frank bank supervision legislation. Clinton was critical of Trump's economic team of business people from hedge funds and the real estate industry, saying this was another example of "trickle down economics,"  for giving  "super big tax breaks to large corporations." Michigan has not voted Republican since 1988, and the auto industry rescue was organized by president Obama, a point heavily advertised in the 2012 presidential campaign. Romney had opposed the rescue effort, and during the 2012 campaign the WSJ reports say  Trump called the bailout of automakers a mistake because of expansion overseas.

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Denmark's shipping company A.P. Moeller-Maersk plans to split into 2 different divisions, one for transport and one for energy. Maersk Line, the largest container operator in the shipping industry, will become part of the new Transport and Logistics Division. Oil interests of Maersk will be combined to form the Energy Division. In June Maersk replaced CEO Nils Anderson with Soren Skou from the shipping business. The container shipping industry is suffering from a sharp downturn with freight rates falling in price wars, and shipping lines barely covering fuel costs. Hanjin Shipping is a South Korean company that has filed for bankruptcy protection. There is a process of consolidation taking place in the shipping industry as smaller lines are finding it difficult to survive on their own. Experts say the 20 biggest container operators could lose about $8-10 billion in 2016. Maersk has shifted to $139 million net loss in 2nd quarter 2016.

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British prime minister Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement was defeated in the House of Commons by a vote of 344 to 286, a margin of 58 votes. 5 Labour MP's voted in favor, and 34 Brexiteer MP's in the European Research Group voted against. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland voted against. The vote did not include a declaration on the future relations with the European Union. The vote happened on March 29, the deadline for Britain to leave the EU. A new deadline of April 10 has been set to seek a longer extension.

Options going forward are to use a longer delay of a year to come up with consensus, have a second referendum, or hold a general election. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for Mrs. May to resign and hold a general election. Britain will hold European parliament elections in May.

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Chennai, a city of 10 million in India faces a water crisis. It is approaching a situation of Day Zero when the water utility in the city can not any longer provide regular supplies of water through tap water. Tankers with water are used instead. This situation is a result of the 4 reservoirs used for Chennai water suffering from drought in the area- two are dry and the other two are almost dry. Water tankers supply water at the cost of an average salary of 9000 rupees  a month as shown in this story in the WSJ.

Cities such as Shimla, Managalore, Hyderabad, Delhi, also face water supplies crisis. All over India 600 million people live in water stressed areas, according to NITI Aayog, a government policy think tank. By 2030 the demand for water is expected to double. With weak monsoon rains the government is calling for water conservation.

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Farming vegetables causes less greenhouse than livestock production. Climate experts say people should eat more vegetables for better health and for slowing greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change.

Consider that studies show farming and other land use account for about a fourth of all greenhouse gas emissions, and about half of methane gas emissions are released into the atmosphere from cattle and rice fields. Meat in particular has more greenhouse gas emissions. 

Climate experts say the nutritional value of wheat grown in higher CO2 areas is 6% to 13% less for protein, and 5% to 8% less for iron. Another problem aggravating the situation is that drought has grown 1% a year between 1961 and 2013, IPCC researchers have found. This is a result of the growing climate change issues. Drought and nutrition is a major problem in India and Africa.

 

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Italy is planning to place a quarantine in the north covering the region around Milan and 11 provinces nearby, in a draft decree from the prime minister's office, says this report in the WSJ. When a final decision is made the quarantine would go into effect March 8 and go on till April 3, 2020. This move is similar to the quarantine steps taken in China which helped limit the health crisis in China from coronavirus. The new decree also includes tight restrictions on travel in the affected areas. 

The new action is being taken as earlier measures have not limited the spread of coronavirus. They were requested by the government in Lombardy, which combined with Emilia Romagna and Veneto are the worst hit of the regions in northern Italy with about 85% of cases. It also means the industrial economy with 40% of GDP is affected.

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Sir Keir Starmer is elected leader of the Labour Party in Britain with 56% of the vote. Starmer 57 years old, is a human rights lawyer who was director of public prosecutions from 2008 to 2013, and elected Labour leader just 5 years after being elected to parliament. Angela Rayner, shadow education secretary won the deputy leadership race with 52% of the vote. 

The new shadow chancellor is the MP for Oxford East since 2017 Ms. Anneliese Dodds. She is a former academic and member of the European parliament. Jo Stevens the MP from Cardiff East is the new shadow foreign secretary. He resigned from the Corbyn team in 2017 to oppose Brexit.

Corbyn sceptics swept the elections to the National Executive Committee. Starmer supports EU freedom of movement to continue, public ownership of services such as post, rail and energy, and raising income tax on the top 5% of earners.

 

 

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Estimates by the Congresssional Budget Office in January 2011 show the federal budget deficit in the US at nearly $1.5 trillion in 2011. The deficit would equal 9.8% of the US gross domestic product. In 2009 the budget deficit was $1.4 trillion or 10% of GDP. The CBO estimates show the debt held by the public increasing from 40% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2008 to about 70% at the end of fiscal year 2011. Republican senators Orrin Hatch of Utah and John Cornyn of Texas called for a constitutional balanced budget amendment in an op-ed published in Politico.

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The basic outlines of new health care legislation takes shape as Senators Dodd and Kenedy come up with a plan that scales down subsidies to low-income people to buy insurance. Attached to their revised outline is a budget office analysis thatprojects the plan costing $611 billion over 10 years and with expected changes from the Senate Finance Committee would cover 97 percent of all Americans. And earlier plan received much criticism because the Congressional Budget Office estimated its cost at $1 trillion over 10 years and left 37 million Americans uninsured. In addition there is the revised Medicaid expansions for aid to the poor that would add a couple of humndred billion dollars to the total tab. The administration's goal is to keep the cost down to $1 trillion over 10 years. The legislation as it stands includes the public option which is designed to control insurance costs. Mr. Obama said this week that "the public option would keep insurance companies honest." Employer mandated insurance is part of the Kennedy-Dodd legislation proposal. Employers with 25 or more workerswould have to provide coverage or pay the government an annual fee of $750 for each full-time worker and $375 for each part-time worker. The government pays the startup costs for the public insurance option as a loan to be repaid, and premiums would make the option self-sufficient....

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China's total public debt was 95% of GDP in 2022, Japan's was 62% in 1991. It's population aging faster than Japan's with population declining in 2022, Japan's declining in 2008 twenty years after its bubble burst. China's per capita income at $12,850 in 2022, compared to Japan's at $29,000 in 1991. China is facing more difficult headwinds than Japan in many ways. There is also higher tension in trade relations with US and EU limiting export growth. There is also the policy stance of the Communist Party that sees rural areas left behind with about 35% people in rural areas and Xi is slowing growth to reduce disparities and housing construction led speculative growth. In Japan urbanization was 77% in 1991, compared to 65% in China today. 

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China's Producer prices declined by 3%, Consumer prices flatlined, and imports and exports are both down 6.2% in September 2023. Growth is expected not to exceed 5% in forecasts by IMF and others.

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U.S. president elect Trump meets with the heads of tech businesses on Dec. 14, 2016. CEO's of Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft were present. Trump was exuberant about the advantages secured by U.S. tech companies in global business, saying- "there's nobody like you in the world. Anything that the government can do to help this go along, we're going to be there for you." The discussions covered need for more vocational education, advantages and disadvantages of trade with China, and immigration. Quarterly meetings of this type are now planned with a smaller group organized by Jared Kushner to cover immigration and education.  Jeff Bezos of Amazon described the meeting as "very productive." Bezos says he told the group that the best way was to use innovation to create jobs outside of tech in agriculture, infrastructure, manufacturing elsewhere, to create large number of jobs. Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM, and other executives are part of the Strategic and Policy Forum set up to provide business input to the president. ...

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U.S. household net worth has surged a Fed quarterly report shows. But the winners are not the same people who lost out in the Great Recession. Home prices in Las Vegas, Pheonix and Miami are still well below - over 25%- than when they were at their peak before the recession, according to Case-Shiller price index. It is in cities such as San Francisco, Dallas, Denver and Charlotte that prices have surged. As for stock investments this is concentrated among the higher income and wealthier households. Core Logic shows the number of people underwater of 12 million at the peak, and this has declined to 3 million. Overall the trend is positive when combined with the Census report showing strong gain of median income of 5.2% in 2015, and shows Obama policies working in the right direction. Though it has taken time, still leaves many people behind in parts of the country, and for demographic groups such as older people who lost jobs in the recession.

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This view from Udo Bauer of DW.com about the Berlin elections says the result with the CDU and the SPD each losing about 6-7% of the votes cast is more about the unpopularity of the CDU candidate Henkel and the SPD candidate Muller. He says Muller had about the charisma and appeal of a paper clip compared to the previous Berlin Mayor Klaus Wowereit who showed vision and assertive action. Other local issues were important in the election including crumbling infrastructure and dissatisfaction with services. The AfD won about 14% of the votes with its appeal to voters opposed to the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel. Yet Bauer thinks, like the Republican party in the past this could be a passing phenomenon, after voters have expressed their grievances about chancellor Merkel's "we can manage it" on the refugees. Something Merkel now says people read too much into. The SPD too has a lot to reflect on for handling local issues, says Bauer.

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This WSJ Editorial Board article says Ron DeSantis has strong support in Florida with his 19 percentage point margin win in Florida. As a national candidate he is seen as conservative with a ban on 6 week abortion and cultural stands on a number of issues, and a sense that there is what it calls "cultural brawling." His position on Ukraine as simply "a territorial dispute" is questioned. This gives Mr. Trump an opportunity to show DeSantis is too conservative, says the WSJ. Mr. DeSantis 44 years, is praised for the way he handled the pandemic by opening up schools earlier than New York and other states, and opening up the economy. Yet he is seen as lacking a larger vision on how the country can build a stronger economy, and reduce social divisions, for American Renewal.  WSJ's views on Biden are that he leans too much towards Progressive Democrats. And on Trump that he is stuck with the idea of national retribution leading to 4 more years of trench warfare that it finds unacceptable. ...

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There is a sense from Remainers and Brexiters in the Conservatives and in Labour that Brexit is "acting as a drag on UK growth and limiting its potential" after the pandemic and inflation. Senior members of both parties are meeting in Oxfordshire including David Lamy of Labour and Michael Gove of the Conservatives, and the heads of banks and large business. Gove and Boris Johnson led the campaign for Brexit, and Gove is now interested in ensuring Brexit is not viewed as a failure in the long term. The Office of Budget. Responsibility says Brexit will reduce Britain's per capita GDP  by 4%, over the 15 years from 2016. Labour sees it as a threat to any future Labour government to leave unaddressed the relations with the European Union. In a bipartisan effort what sort of conversation to have with the EU so that Britain's economy benefits? President Biden's effort in working with like minded Republicans for America's renewal may be seen by Labour and the Conservatives as reason for doing the same in Britain to ensure European recovery.   ...