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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

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Hotel costs are up and hotels will pay $123 billion in compensation in 2024, according to the American Hotel and Lodging Association. This is 20% higher than 2019 because of increase in wages. Average hourly wages in the hotel sector were $18 an hour in 2020, going up to $24 per hour today, an increase of about 33%. This has been passed on to the customers in hotels. The average price of a hotel room was $120 a day in 2019, it is now $160 a day, an increase of 33%. There is also a demand supply factor so that rates can be much higher in peak demand periods.

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Japan and South Korea which rely on the U.S. for defense offered only a mild response to president Trump's announcement of  25% tariff on steel imports. Australia also defended free trade but offered no response to the U.S. duties on Australian steel and aluminium exports to the U.S. of $388 million.  There was no criticism of Mr. Trump. 

Japan's prime minister Abe talked to Trudeau of Canada as a 11 nation group pushes ahead with the TPP or Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, and are set to sign the agreement in Chile this week, on  March 8, 2018.

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Recovery of New York office space as vacancy drops to 15% in Manhattan office buildings from the 8% before the pandemic in 2019's final quarter. The Park Avenue $60 story tower that has head offices of Chase Bank is one of the recovery spots. The return ot office attendance is back up to levels before the pandemic in 2019, slightly higher by 1.3%. A younger workforce is attracted to work in Manhattan with short commutes from the suburbs around it.  The Park Avenue Corridor near the Grand Central Terminal Building is  another one of the areas with easy commute into New York City from suburbs.

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BP is in negotiations with Apache Corporation to sell assets, including assets in its Alaska operation. This could raise upto $10 billion, to help pay costs of cleanup and compensation arising from the Gulf Oil Spill.

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President Obama's 15 member Independent Payment Advisory Board, which is given the task of reducing Medicare costs and holding them to GDP growth and half a percentage point after 2018, under the Obama deficit reduction plan.

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Steger and Wong of the WSJ describe the tense atmosphere in the Hong Kong legislature on June 17, 2015, as the legislature votes 28-8 rejecting the Beijing plan and 34 pro-Beijing legislators walk out.

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Wal-Mart's Massmarket Holdings plans to open 90 new stores in Africa in 2013-2016. New store openings planned in Nigeria and Angola. Massmarket operates in 12 sub-Saharan countries of Africa and has 359 stores.

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Three new cable stay bridges are coming up in New York, the first between Queens and Brooklyn replaces the old Kosciuszko bridge and is already constructed, the second replaces the Tappan Zee across the Hudson river just 10 miles north of the Bronx, the third  replaces the Goethals between Staten Island and Elizabeth, New Jersey. The cable-stay design is becoming popular because of its aesthetic looks and because its easier and economical to construct. This gives a face lift to the city. Much of the work is done under the leadership of the State Department of Transportation, New York State Thruway Authority, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. The Brooklyn Bridge built in 1883 has this kind of cable design but from an earlier era.

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Serge Galam says in this NYT piece that abstention can affect the election in France. He says abstention from the far left voters is likely to favor Marie Le Pen. He says an overall abstention rate of 25% shown in polls can make it possible to have an uncertain result, and that Le Pen may need much less than 50% of the vote if abstentions are high. If 95% of Le Pen voters turn out and less than 61% of Macron voters turn out there is an opening for Le Pen, says Galam.

Another way of looking at this is the disaffection of the electorate with parties in France, with a high abstention vote even if Macron wins, especially on the far left.

 

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According to Foresight Analytics in just 4 months the delinquencies rate for condominium builders accelerated from 5.9% in thrid quarter to 10% in fourth quarter 2007 for about $42 billion in condominium debt. The National Association of Realtors estimates that an oversupply that would meet 10 months of demand is where the condominium building ended up in 2007.

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The government controlled Securities Association of China says a fund of 120 billion renminbi ($19.4) billion is set up July 3, 2015 to buy shares in the larger more stable companies and reduce selling of shares from brokerage firms portfolios. This is not likely to have much impact because of its small size, and because the volatility is concentrated in small and medium size firms stocks which had doubled since June 2014, and were hit by the sharp decline in June 2015. The stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzen also suspended initial public offerings. Share prices have dropped by about 30% since June 12 on the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchages. With the surge in the Chinese stock market prices till June 12, 2015, share prices of many small and medium sized companies doubled or even quadrupled in value. The overall index on the 2 exchanges doubled because as the smaller stocks quadrupled the large blue chips went up by about a fourth in value. The overall Shanghai market went up 149% to June 12, 2015, over the prior year. It is down 28.6% as of July 5, 2015 since June 12, 2015. A stock index of 100 large mainland Chinese companies traded both in Shanghai and Hong Kong were up about 24% by contrast. A major problem is the margin trading with loans to investors from stock purchases up nine times in 2 years and informal financial companies charging annual interest rates of over 20%. Small investors focussed on small and medium sized firms because they were going up the fastest, and many risked their life savings. Younger workers were also part of the group caught up in the frenzy of stock buying. Shares in the larger companies are only about 30% of the overall value of companies on the Shanghai Stock Exchange....

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Denmark plans a huge wind farm project in Germany on an artificial island with 200 turbines. This will be Denmark's biggest infrastructure project. Germany plans to reduce emissions by 65% over 1990 levels by 2030. This means projects like this will be needed. Denmark prime minister Witte is on a 3 day visit to India with renewable energy projects under discussion. Germany's Economics Ministry has set up a joint working group with Denmark. 

The new project will be the size of 18 soccer fields setup on this artificial island in the Baltic Sea, to generate 3 GW enough for 3 million households. After this the project second stage is to install more turbines, for a total of 650 turbines, according to Der Spiegel. The project will cost 28 billion euros ($32 billion) with energy planned flowing by 2033.

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A fascinating look in DW.com at pictures of an iceberg 158 kilometres long and 48 kilometres wide, on its way to hit the British territory of South Georgia in the South Atlantic. The island of South Georgia is known for large populations of penguins and seals, albatrosses, and humpback as well as blue whales. Prior to its splitting up the iceberg was even larger about the size of Luxembourg. The iceberg is a few hundred metres thick. The iceberg has already travelled for 1600 kilometres, and will reach South Georgia in 10-20 days.

Antarctica is the most southern region in the world, with 99% covered with ice some 5000 metres thick, 1.3 times size of Europe. Lowest temperature at -99 degrees centigrade, windspeeds can reach 155 mph. On it there are 4000 scientists in summer on research stations of 30 countries.

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Walmart sold three of its overseas store operations in the last 2 months, some at a loss as it decides to focus on e-commerce. Walmart exited operations in Japan keeping a 15% stake and selling the rest of the operation to other companies. Walmart sold Asda Group Ltd. in UK at a non-cash after tax loss of $2 billion and operations in Argentina at a non-cash aftertax loss of $1 billion. In 2018 Walmart sold its operations in Brazil at a loss.

It has been hard for Walmart to use the same strategies that it used in the U.S. to achieve dominant position by squeezing out inefficiencies in supply chain and getting the best price from suppliers.  In Japan its subsidiary Seiyu required infusion of $2 billion in 2008 without generating any income in recent years. 

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Cloud computing is a growing $300 billion business, with Amazon a key player having 28% of the market. It competes with Google and Microsoft in cloud computing. Andy Jassy has built the cloud computing business with $51 billion in sales. It generates 10% of sales in the final quarter of 2020 for Amazon but over half the profit. Renting out server space and software to customers is a profitable business compared to online retail. Sales of $12.7 billion in the final quarter of 2020 generated $3.6 billion in profit. And growth a brisk 28% over the prior year quarter.

Satya Nadella ran the cloud computing business at Microsoft before becoming CEO. IBM named a new CEO from this business that revived growth. Now Andy Jassy is promoted to CEO at Amazon in the sequence of new CEO's from cloud computing.

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Defense minister Rajnath Singh says on the last day of Aero India, that India has "great potential to emerge as a global and regional Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) hub, given the cost competitiveness of its manpower resources, the availability of abundant specialist capabilities and geographical advantages."

Between 2016 nd 2019, 138 proposals worth over $37 billion for domestic manufacturing of defense equipment components were approved. Aero components sector is expected to double from 30,000 crore today to 60,000 crore by 2025. Aerospace has a big role to play in reaching the targets of domestic defense production of $25 billion and exports of $5 billion by 2025. India will have moved from defense production of $11 billion to $25 billion by 2025.

This includes the LUH new generation single engine helicopter to be designed and developed by HAL.

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Declan Walsh in another exceptional piece on the ground at customs offices in Torkham, Afghanistan, near the Khyber Pass bordering Pakistan in the southeast. He describes a network of corrupt officials that extends from border customs offices all the way to the central government in Kabul. It is so widespread that one minor customs official at the border paid $10,000 for a customs position where the salary is $150 a month, but money gained through unofficial payments and bribes is $4000 a month. At every step from the guard opening the gate for a truck to the border customs official, to the provincial department officials, to officials in the capital Kabul, there are payments involved for every truck entering Afghanistan. Upto two thirds of customs revenue is lost, and the $500 million of customs revenues collected amounts to 26% of the governments tax revenues.

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The European Union governments are finding it increasingly difficult to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions. European governments rejected Iran's 60 day ultimatum to help circumvent U.S. Trump administration sanctions. The U.S. sanctions have already led to Iran's oil export to drop from 2.5 million barrels a day to 1 million. Lost shipments have cost Iran $10 billion hurting its economy. Initially European nations France and Germany hoped to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by working with Iran, but this has become increasingly difficult with the Trump administration increasing sanctions including limiting access to U.S. markets for nations that do not cooperate with U.S. policy. The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and now it looks like the Europeans are faced with a difficult choice in continuing to work with Iran.

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The resistance of some youth and younger people to social distancing and mask wearing guidelines and restrictions on gatherings, is one of the hard to understand behaviours in France, Florida, California and other parts of the western world. On one day alone 500,000 persons went to bars in Los Angeles County the day after after they reopened on June 20, according to some reports. The surge in California today is not something that just happened or fell suddenly from the sky.

In France after 72 cases were detected in the Quiberon peninsula the top regional official told about "the irresponsibility of young people vacationing or living here gathering in large numbers for festivities, ignoring the danger." Some of the people 18-25 years have with the risky behaviours increased the level of the dangers in this pandemic in many countries.

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How returns in the U.S. stock markets of over 30% in 2013 change the picture of five year returns to the end of 2013 compared to the end of 2012. Long run has to be much more than 5 years and even longer for decent returns.