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Paul Krugman in NYT explains the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. He says the bank invested its money in safe Treasury bonds which fell in value with Fed's policy of sharp increase in interest rates to fight inflation. It presented itself as the bank for people in Silicon valley and succeeded more than it imagined possible leading to these investors putting their money at SVB bank. However Krugman points out SVB bank did not put this money from deposits into startups, it put these deposits in safe US Treasury assets. It is Venture Capital that put its money in the startups at Silicon Valley, then panicked and set in motion a bank run that led to $42 billion withdrawals on one day Thursday March 9. These SVB assets have value says Krugman. Over time the government says Krugman will get much of its money back from these Treasury assets of SVB.  Then why the government rescue by president Biden? A bank run of this type undermines confidence in other regional banks affecting the US banking system in a way that is totally unnecessary when the banking system as a whole is safe. In fact the Fed vice chairwoman Lael Brainard understood and made clear these risks says Krugman, and she now heads Biden's national Economic Council.   ...

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Adjusted for inflation wages for automakers have fallen 19% since 2008 because of tiers new workers making about $17 an hour significantly less than the $32 an hour. UAW seeks an end to tiered hiring.  For GM it is about committing to a long term contract in an industry that is unpredictable and uncertain. GM wants to make substantial investments in the EV industry with president Biden's help even when not making profits from EV's. For the UAW Ms. Janis of Jobs to Move America says labor is a very small part of what it costs to make EV's, batteries are the most. None of the earlier difficulties are likely because much fewer workers are needed making labor cost a much smaller component. Toyota has been slow in its EV start, BYD in China is leading but US carmakers are supported by the US government for EV's. Auto workers want a fair contract . And GM working with partners can still build joint venture factories for batteries in the South just like Tesla where work is not unionized. In the competition in EV's R&D and quality of management will play a bigger role. Fairness for workers will motivate American carmakers, with worker training and quality+value of EV's important for success.   ...

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A cut in interest rates by a quarter percentage point from the U.S. central bank is a decision that comes from the U.S. not wanting to see too wide a gap in interest rates with the European Union. Losing demand to Europe and resulting lower inflation is an outcome prevented by the U.S. acting to protect its own economy with  acut in its rate. The ECB rate at 0.4% is about 3 percentage points below the Federal Reserve's rate in the U.S. After the cuts in rates to near zero by the central banks of U.S. and Europe following the financial crisis caused by poor lending practices of banks, the U.S. central bank began a process of bringing rates to about 3%. Lower rates near zero badly hurt savings accounts of ordinary Americans. By December 2018 the rates had reached 2.25%.  President Trump has called for lower rates. because of the advantages it gives Europe in trade balances with a weaker currency that follows from lower interest rates. Capital flows to the country with higher rates and increases the value of the currency creating trade disadvantages and lower trade balances. WIth European interest rates much lower than the U.S. it pushes down the value of the euro vs the dollar and the British pound lower from Brexit fears. This increases European exports putting the U.S.  at a disadvantage. As the WSJ points out the U.S. central bank says though Mr. Trump is looking at trade balances and U.S. advantage, and Mr. Powell at the U.S. central bank is looking at U.S. inflation, the result for policy is the same- the U.S. acting to cut rates and stay close to what the European Union is doing. Bond yields in Europe have dropped from a negative 0.24% to negative 0.32% with the ECB's head Mr. Draghi moving to cut rates. The announcement of Ms. Christine Lagarde as the new head of the ECB to succeed Draghi and her views to push demand up, is pushing bond yields down. The U.S. as part of the globally linked economy has to act in line with policies in Europe. ...

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An index for consumer prices for the U.S. was up only 0.8% for the 12 months of 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is well below the U.S. central bank's target of 2% inflation. It creates uncertainty about whether the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in 2015.

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Raising the minimum wage makes sense because it is low and has not caught up with inflation. In real terms it is lower today than in the 1960's, even though productivity has doubled, which is why it makes sense. Economic sudies show that it is not likely to reduce jobs.

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Wholesale inflation calculated weekly is at 7% in India. And the country's Finance Minister Chidambaram says he is more concerned about inflation than a growth that slows a bit. Experts forecast growth slowing down from 9% to 7% in the next 2 years as the global slowdown affects India. For the US India has been a good export market with sales growing at the rate of 75% a year according to the USA Commerce Department. But a look at the charts shows that China also had periods of a couple of years when growth slowed to 7% in recent years before it gradually went back up to over 10%. And China's growth will also be affected by the global slowdown and fall weel below 10%. And this may be a health y thing for China as it decides what kind of growth it wants to see that is better than the haphazard growth of the last few years with its huge environmental costs and lax regulation and the imbalances in growth between urban and rural as well as wages and benefits without labor law protections to create domestic consumption by a middle class. ...

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WSJ reports DJT action on tariffs and Fed's new forecast of slight uptick in 2025 inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%, on growth slowing to 1.7% in 2025. Fed's head Powell says- “That’s really due to the tariffs coming in,” Slowing inflation  “is probably delayed for the time being.” The tariff action is based on reciprocal tariffs, "we charge them what they charge us," and is based on the principle of fairness in world trade that was carelessly sacrificed by previous US administrations under Clinton, Bush and Obama. DJT and Trade Representative Lighthizer highlighted the issue of unfair trade and created a consensus around this issue for creating a level playing field with American action on tariffs that was accepted by the Biden led Democratic adminstration to rebuild American Manufacturing. What happened under previous presidents was ignominous for America and these administrations as they allowed the loss of whole industries first in lower technologies and then in advanced technologies as foreign countries used hidden subsidies. America's textbook economists at Ivy League universities and previous administrations used economic theory that had little connection with reality to allow shipping manufacturing overseas, destroying communities and towns with loss of jobs and public services across the US. ...

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Bernanke in reflections on his policies for quantitative easing in response to the 2008 financial crisis, says the policies were intended to protect Main Street and the average American, even though this is not readily apparent. He says the policies did not lead to inflation as critics have stated, and one has only to look at today's inflation statistics to know this- referring critics to the government CPI report in Jan 2014 that consumer prices went up by 1.5% in 2013 and less than 2% for 2012. Bernanke says he hopes he took the right actions, and still retains the conviction that the American economy will recover losses from the 2008 financial crisis- even though the answers to this questions won't be seen for some time.

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The hike in the interest rate by 6% by the central bank of Argentina brings interest rates up to 40%. This is part of an effort to stem the decline in the value of the Argentina peso. The peso has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar so far in 2018, with a run on the peso seen on May 4th. The problems started with the central bank loosening its inflation target to 15% from 12%, says this report in the Economist. Inflation has shot up to 25% in Argentina in the last 12 months. Raising interest rates to as high as 40% is a risky move because of the effect on economic growth. President Macri and his Cambiemos (we can change) coalition won the election in 2015 by 2 percentage points over the Peronista Kirchner led party which ran the country after the debt crisis on a policy of debt reduction (desdeudameinto). Argentina's current account deficit is at 5% and growing rapidly. A major problem is the huge dollar denominated debt issued in 2016 and 2017 by the government, local government and private sector. According to the central bank BRCA the dollarized assets in 2016-2017 are about $25 billion representing capital flight, with $8 billion going for debt interest payments, profits and dividends, and $14 billion for travel and tourism. For a total of $50 billion according to central bank BRCA going to finance debt service payments, capital flight, profit remittances abroad, and tourism as a result of the issuance of $100 billion in dollar denominated debt by Argentina's government (90%) and private sector (10%). This is the first time such a large figure of dollar denominated debt was created after the financial crisis in Argentina during the first 2 Kirchner administrations during which time the debt was substantially reduced. This has led to S&P putting Argentina on the list of 5 most fragile economies in 2017. Instead of a gradual increase in issuing debt to finance economic development and focus on limiting loss through capital flight, avoiding rapid growth in dollar denominated debt, the Macri government has repeated the mistakes of the past in managing the economy. ...

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Germany's industrial union IG Metall with about 3.6 million workers is asking for 7 to 8% pay raise for its members. Goldman Sachs Dirk Schumacher says a rule of thumb is that the final deal is about half a high as the initial demand. Last year the demand was for 6.5 raise and the end result was a 4.1% aise in mid 2007 and a 1.7% raise this summer. That deal ends in November. A look at the graphs for last year side by side showing inflation and pay increases from the Federal Statistics Office of Germany shows that even with the pay increases granted the CPI monhly data for Germany or the rate of inflation is running higher than rate of pay raises. The German economy is not doing as well but experts say that it can absorb these moderate pay raises without affecting the attractiveness of exports and affecting demand in Germany. If anything inflation has accelerated compared to last year so for German workers the situation would be more like the status quo or just keeping up with their current situation. ...

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The first farmer in recent history to become president of the US, 1977-1981, Jimmy Carter ran a peanut farm in the southern state of Georgia. He also served in the US Navy under Admiral Rickover. Rickover hired Jimmy Carter for the US early submarine program in 1949. It was Jimmy Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan that made the Democrat a rare one term president. The Iran hostage crisis happened during the election year 1980 which may have shifted the election in the Republican Reagan's favor. The economy also suffered from high inflation and lower growth during this period leading to the loss of the presidency for Carter. The incidents leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall happened during the Reagan presidency. This led to the period of three decades when the free market, less regulation period led to the 2009 economic crisis and the earlier breakup of the Soviet Union leading to the economic crisis in the early period in Russia. It was during this period that 2 Democrats president Clinton and Obama tacitly accepted the Reagan era policies of free markets and less regulation. This period is now coming to a close with the pandemic and a reassessment of what has happened. During that period Clinton paved the way for China's admission into the World Trade Organization. The lack of regulation has led to Section 230 leading to a proliferation of undesirable content on the internet, with support for regulation in the Us Congress. US policy is also moving to support its own industries something the Reagan policies saw negatively, particularly chip manufacturing where the US has lost its leadership role. The period that ended the Carter presidency is thus an inflection point that is now reversing itself decades later with the sense that government staying away from the economy is not a desirable thing. ...

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Macron returns to the Sorbonne, France's oldest University, for his second address to Europe, following th first in 2017, 7 years back. Then as now Macron presents a vision for Europe, with a unique role for France. Defense of the ideas and ideals of Europe built through centuries, in contrast to USA and China, and India, other centers of world civilization. It is worth a try to read the whole speech if you are a European or a friend of Europe, to get a sense of the European ideas that come from France, Italy and the Netherlands and Britain, and Germany. It presents ideas not just about defense, including Ukraine. Most of the speech is about how can Europe and European ideas be made to grow and prosper with all the changes happening in the world in technology, content that is less and less European for the children of Europe- less than 3% Macron says. How it can invest to meet the oversubsidizing that the US and China are doing, the investments that the US with Inflation Reduction Act for $1 trillion in spending and investment including chips and science, and the similar investments in China- how can Europe make investments of $1 trillion, and ways to generate the funding. And investing $1 trillion on a Europe wide basis with a plan and a set of goals to maintain European leadership in a world dominated by the US and China, and soon India. Macron says in 12 months plans have to be developed and set into motion for this new European effort. ...

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US House Republicans are pursuing cuts in spending of as much as 50% in many programs that are considered essential, such as a 50% cut in foreign aid at a time of global food insecurity, deep cuts in the FBI's counter intelligence budget, deep cuts in healthcare services and housing to low income Americans following the pandemic and high inflation, and other cuts to services benefiting workers and families. Democrats in Congress and president Biden oppose such cuts and hope to eliminate the deficit with cuts that do not place an unfair burden- taxes on the wealthiest with over $100 million and on stock buybacks would generate about $2 trillion to cover the whole deficit which is in the range of $1.4 trillion in 2023 moving to $2 trillion a year. Much of the Republican plan is being shaped by Mr. Trump's former Budget Director, Russell Vought, says this report in the NYT. Mr. Vought calls it an attack on the bureaucracy and woke spending. Other Republicans see this as an ideological approach that does not address today's problems. Chuck Schumer, Democrats Senate Majority Leader asks Republicans to spell out their plan. ...

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This report in WSJ says Mr. Musk's agreement with Twitter for the $44 billion merger had terrible timing. It comes with the future for social media companies becoming dimmer and the plunging shares in Tesla with the high inflation and the war in Ukraine hitting stocks.  It is striking that Musk around January 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine referred to Twitter as "the future of civilization," as reported by WSJ. This was typical of the hyperbole and talk typical of the last two decades that hyped up internet stocks. Musk said- "Having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important for the future of civilization. I don't care about the economics at all." Twitter stock meanwhile has dropped to 20% below the price it came into public markets in 2013, now at about $35 a share. Mr. Musk agreed to buy Twitter at $54.20 a share about 50% more than it stands now. Twitter ad revenue outlook is dimming further as has happened at other social media companies and the company is now cutting jobs says the WSJ. ...

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Apple follows Microsoft in increasing workers pay. Apple increased the hourly pay for workers to $22, increase of 45% over 2018. It follows Microsoft which has doubled its worldwide budget for meit based pay increases. Annual increases are moved up by 3 months and new pay increases take effect in July at Apple. Apple shares have fallen 21% this year to May, making stock based awards ineffective.  Apple has paused plans to call workers to office for at least 3 days a week as coronavirus cases rise again in California. Apple was one of the first companies to move to remote work in 2020. The pandemic has increased Apple sales tremendously of laptops and iphones so that the increase in workers pay was long overdue. In this sense the Biden administration has brought with it president Biden's genuine and deeply felt concerns for workers and families to the forefront of company and workers attention. Overall for private and government employers the first quarter of 2022 brought with it a 4.5% increase in workers pay, says the Labor Department. Inflation was higher and outpaced worker wage increases so that worker pay has more room to grow under president Biden's leadership. ...

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After a second round of price increases P&G's last price increase of 10% leads to first quarter revenues up 4% on sales volume declines of 3% for the first quarter of 2023. The company making Gillette razors, Charmin toilet paper and Tide detergent for household supplies has shown the persistence of inflation as companies increase prices to pass on the increase in price of raw materials. Some of this money will go to buy back stock- P&G plans to buy back $8 billion of its own stock. Companies such as P&G are countering criticism of price increases by saying they offer premium products or use the term "irresistable superiority" says this report in NYT. This leads to "profit price spiral" and adds to "wage price spiral" effects. A executive board member in eurozone says half of the price increases in EU can be attributed for the last quarter of 2023 to company profits.

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Capital spending by oil companies after you take out the 10% inflation in the cost of most drilling epuipment and people isn't growing by much. In 2007 spending on exploration and production totaled $270 billion, increasing by 10% over 2006 with most of the increase in cost coming from higher costs of everything from rigs to labor and oil field services. And oil companies are pasing back huge earnings to shareholders in the form of buybacks and share purchases, the top 5 western oil companies will have spent an estimated $179 billion in share buybacks in the last 4 years. And the the companies are not able to replace reserves that are used up each year in production. As aresult they are basically shrinking and becoming smaller in the whole oil picture. Only in 2008 is the spending picking up a bit but only by a small amount after one takes out inflation, and that because there may be more confidence that oil prices will hold up better in the long run to justify the higher costs of finding oil....

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The NASDAQ index reached 5000 by April 2015, a level reached in the stock market boom in 2000. Yet investment strategists who were wary of the stock market in the period before the 2000-2002 collapse of the market see this market differently. The NASDAQ itself is not what it was in 2000, with the 2015 NASDAQ component stocks being different for the most part, and the healthcare and other sectors better represented in the index. Only three of the stocks in the top ten in 2000 are in the top ten today, including Microsoft. The S&P 500 trades in April 2015 at 18.5 times its company earnings for the past 12 months, compared to an historical average of 15.5, according to research firm Bespoke. A big part of the difference today is the investment climate of low inflation, which gives the U.S. Federal Reserve flexibility in raising rates. Low rates make bonds with lower yields less attractive, and increase the present value of future earnings. The yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury was 1.917% on April 25, 2015. In April 2000 it was 6%, and in mid 2007 it was 5.3% before the financial crisis in the two periods. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management oversees $347 billion in fund investments. He also was wary of the U.S. stock market in 1999, yet he does not see the similiar kind of risks today, and sees a long term bullish trend. The scenario he envisages is more of a pause or temporary decline. Paulsen has shifted money to European markets, as U.S. stocks are becoming more expensive relative to their European counterparts, a strategy that is being followed by other money managers since 2014. Higher price volatility is seen in the markets in 2015, with the S&P 500 up 2.9% for the first four months of 2015, and the Dow up 1.4%. ...

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The Rivlin-Domenici Deficit Report recommends freezing US defense spending from 2012 to 2016 at its current level of over $700 billion a year. This means the Defense department budget would not be adjusted for inflation, and the military would not have the $431 billon in additional spending that the Congressional Budget Office had projected. By contrast Defense Secretary Gates has sought to keep the Defense departmet budget growing at 1% a year after inflation, plus the costs of the war in Afghanistan. And the Bowles -Simpson Deficit Commisssion chairmen have recommended $100 billion in savings by 2015 be used to reduce the deficit. The way Gates sees it the savings of 2-3% annually in department contracts would be used for other military purposes. Rivlin-Domenici and Bowles-Simpson do not see it that way, they want to use the money for deficit reduction and improving the economic prospects for the US.

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Inflation on an annual basis hit 27% in June. The central bank widened the band it alloed the dong to rise or fall against the dollar each day from 1% to 2% and announced a devaluation of 2% in June 2008. At this time the dollar buys 19000 dong on the black market compared to the official rate of 16600 dong, and the official rate is climbing up to the higher unofficial rate. A large part of the inflation is caused by a flood of foreign investment and bank loans to state owned companies, and the spending by state owned companies. The state owned companies like the Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group are controllinng their spending. Some of the inflationary influx is investment from foreign manufacturers trying to escape rising costs in China, showing the risks if this and other factors are not carefully managed. Recently Greenspan advised Vietnamese premier Nguyen Dung to mop up the liquidity surge and restrict spending by state owned firms.

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Polish and other Eastern European immigrants to Ireland return home from the Ireland aand the UK as the economies of the 2 countries and unemployment deteriorate and improved job prospects draw the immigrants back home. In fact share of immigrants in ireland reached a high of 155 as Ireland averaged economic growth rates of 5% for many years. Nearly half a million received the irish version ofa social security number. Polish immigrants were the highest almost two thirds followed by Lithuanians and Slovakians. Hourly wages for Eastern European immigrants are 45% less than for Irish people with the same education and experience. Now Ireland's growth has dropped to 1.2% for the last quarter. The reversal is also of the similiar magnitude. A citigroup econ9omist in Warsaw estimates that half of Polish immigrants to Western Europe will return home in the next 2 years. In the UK half of an estimated one million Eastern European immigrants have already left says London Institute for Public Policy Research in an April report. As the immigrants return the currency dynamics also help the pound has lost 40% of its value against the zloty, Poland's currency, and this makes the UK less atttractive to immigrants. Overall the EU immigration opening has helped both sides, as it has helped stabilize the Polish economy and the UK has gained from the immigrants services as it moderated wage inflation and increased domestic demand and met the demands of the economy as it was growing. Now there is a fear that too rapid an exit of immigrants would hurt demand in these economies and also overwhelm labor markets in Poland. Another noteworthy feature of this immigration wave was the low cost of airlinne tickets which has helped travel across europe and also helped European integration. One immigrant a polish mechanic says that he felt more like a commuter than a migrant, as it conly cost $150 a round trip. How are things in Poland today as they return. Very very different. EU entry has really helped Poland through foreign investment and aid from Brussels to assist the country in its catching up progress. Average monthly wages have gone up 30% with construction wages up 50%. and inflation a low of 4.4%. The difference is striking in the medieval city of Krakow in the southeast that has emerged as an information technology and outsourcing hub. where a steady stream of returning workers is helping companies hire workers to meet the new growth. German commercial truck maker MAN has finished recruting 250 mechanics for a new plant in Krakow with 40% of applications from returnig workers. And those who are returning bring fluent English skills and expertise gathered during their stay overseas, and new attitudes to work. This happened to Ireland as Irish workers returned home in the early years of its boom, they hared skills and attitudes learned abroad, according to an economist at Dublin's Economic and Social Research Institute who sees the same thing happening in Poland....

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What has happened that makes it so hard for Democrats Biden who stood on a picket line for the UAW autoworkers union, Harris fighting for workers, that they cannot easily convince workers that they are on their side? It is because compared to 1980 not the lowest income groups but the "downwardly mobile" white and other groups without college degrees have taken the brunt of the loss of manufacturing jobs. It is why the "zero-sum" stories of the former president have appeal to some workers who have lost the most from deindustrialization of the US. Even though Biden, and Harris, have fought hard and are putting in place the policies for the fight to reindustrialize America by taking old plants and modernizing them one by one across the country. No one has ever done this before including years in which the former president was in office. In these visual graphs it is easy to see the sharp decline in incomes and status in society of workers without college degrees as the economy changed after 1980 sending steel, auto and other industries to Asia. By 2024 these workers lives had been upended by the loss of these industries and the hope for income and place in society that existed in 1980. Every US president from Reagan through Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump had failed to address this. Biden was the first president to take this up but too much has happened with to reverse this in 4 years, the pandemic, inflation from loss of supply chains to Asia, and wages not keeping up with cost of living.  NYT's Badger, Gebeloff and Bhatia show analysis of the economy, incomes and jobs in 1980 vs the economy, incomes and jobs in 2024 for persons with a college degree and without a college degree.It shows the sharp differences in the eastern Midwestern states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania over 4 decades of job losses, loss of income status and self worth for men without college degrees. With their jobs in manufacturing disappearing also disappearing was the middle class lifestyle- of owning a house, having a cottage or boat in the countryside, and sending kids to college. ...

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In the first quarter of 2011 consumer demand for gold in China increased by 47% over the prior year quarter to 233 tons, according to the World Gold Council's data. Most of this is for jewelry accounting for 64% in 2010, with gold bar demand increasing as an hedge against inflation. Orlik points out that if inflation decreases from the existing level of 5.3%, and with the increase in wealth management products from Chinese banks, the demand for gold may not be sustained as it offers no return. He says urban resident demand may have reached its peak and there is not much demand from the rural population. Central bank purchases to shift a small part of foreign exchange reserves to gold is the only other factor for a push up in gold prices.

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The cost of tution for four year colleges has doubled in the U.S. since 1985 even after adjustment for inflation, according to the College Board. Over 3 million households in the U.S. owe more than $50,000 in student loans. Ths is ten times the figure of 300,000 in 1989, and about four times the figure of 794,000 in 2001. Upper middle income families with incomes between $94,000 and $205,000, based on Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. Federal Reserve data, shows they owed an average of $32,869 in college loans in 2010, up from $26,639 in 2007, after adjusting for inflation. This is affecting the choices parents and students in the middle class are making of colleges, preferring to go to second tier colleges to better manage the costs of tution.

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The 10 year Treasury bond yields went up from 3.0% 3 months ago to 3.78% in April, according to Treasury International Capital data. The Fed is buying Treasurys to keep rates low, but its spending may be creating new worries about inflation. These worries may be pushing rates higher and threaten to choke off a economic recovery.