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German chancellor Merkel and France's president Hollande meet in Notre-Dame de Reims cathderal for a service that commemorates the 50th anniversary of a mass held at Reims cathedral. That Mass was held at Reims in May 1962 with the hope for a lasting reconciliation between Germany and France in a region affected by recurring wars, and was attended by Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle. The service in July 2012 brings together two leaders after tense discussions at eurozone summit meetings on the future of the eurozone and austerity measures. It is also a reminder of the deeper ties that bring the two countries together after a century of conflict, and the resilience in the face of difficulties shown by a previous generation of leaders in building these ties. It needs to be remembered that it was German chancellor Kohl, Angela Merkel's mentor, one of the postwar leaders who promoted European unity during the period of German reunificaton, who speeded up the agenda for the creating the eurozone and euro currency without the necessary underpinnings of deposit insurance and a eurozone financial regulator with powers to examine the books of European banks and exercize financial supervision. ...

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Results in the Saarland election show the AfD party with only 6.2% of the vote. The CDU is well ahead of the Social Democrats. This result shows that the support for the AfD is strongest in the east. With the refugee crisis not as big an issue as it was in 2016, and the larger effort put forward in push back by CDU/CSU and SPD in the western part of Germany, the AfD sees its support declining from the levels it had in 2016.

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Chile's experience in Latin America stands out for the painful experience of the dictatorship years and the mismanagement of the economy by the government preceding it. The governments of the last 20 years of the Concertacion have studied the mistakes of these years and corrected them to aremarkable degree, like no other country in Latin America. The new politicians decided that the economy had to be managed so that inflation was under control and these Concertacion administrations produced budget surpluses in all but 4 years says Finance Minister Velasco. Velasco himself was 13 years old when the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet was set up, and his father a law professor had to leave the country for criticizing human rights abuses. He studied economics at Columbia University, and his principal focus there was he says, " to understand how did this happen to Chile and how do we make sure it will nhot happen again." His finding was that runaway inflation had created so much unrest among the people that coup plots could take place, and that political stability could not be maintained without good management of the economy. It also meant that Chile must avoid extremes, try to take amoderate position, which meant preserving the free market reforms that had taken place, and introducing policy measures, projects and investment which helped to bring up the vast majority of the people including the least well off of society. Velasco also studied the history of Latin American economies with their boom and bust cycle, the situation in countries especially Argentina and sometimes in Brazil and other countries since the fifties. He found as he says that when " a country seems very creditworthy, everyone wants to lend to you, capital flows in and consumption booms." At some point excessive amounts of capital flow in which cannot be absorbed and is wasted in unproductive ways, which becomes adebt burden as the bust part of the cycle takes hold. So Chile has been careful to control speculative inflows of capital. But Velaco went further. In 2006 he left a Professorship at Harvard University to become finance minister of Chile under President Ms. Bachelet. Copper prices were surging and Velasco insisted on caution. In 2006 he pushed through a law requiring the annual budget to be based on an independedt committtee's estimate of the average price of copper in the next 10 years. Any copper income above the budgeted price goes into a savings fund maintained outside the country. In 2007 the copper price used in the calculation was $1.21 a pound, while the market price was $3.23 a pound. The profits $6 billion for 2007 went into the rainy day fund, which is invested conservatively in government bonds or money market instruments denominated in dollars, euros and yen. This fund is now at$20 billion. What is remarkable for Velasco is the way this was executed. The price used was conservative, the political pressures from unions and students and other groups was resisted effectively, and the whole exercize was carried out to successful conclusion even as popular support for the government dropped. When the crisi hit in December 2007 copper prices plummeted. Velasco announced a stimulus package, getting the $4 billion stimulus package through both Houses of Congress in January 2009. Chile expects only adrop of 0.5% in GDP in 2009 year over year. $500 million was given to stae owned bank BancoEstado, which reduced consumer lending rates by half. The package offers subsidies for businesses to hire younger workers, $700 million for large infrastructure program designed to create 60,000 jobs in road paving, airport upgrades and housing construction. And 1.7 million families, the poorest 40% of the population received cash stipends from the government equivalent to $70, with another stipend due in August....

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Kadish says interest on the national debt is 383 billion dollars or over 40% of the national individual income tax revenues of $904 billion. This according to Treasury's Bureau of the Public Debt. THe COngressional Budget Offfice estimates the 2009 budget deficit to be about $1.4 trillion or about 10% of GDP. OMB estimates total government revenues at $2 trillion. As of 2009 the national debt waas $12 trillion according to Treasury. and OMB forecasts $9 trillion of projected deficits over the nexxt 10 years. This means the natioanl debt could reach $21 trillion by 2019. OMB projects $13.5 trillion of revenue increases over the next 10 years but this says Kadish is optimistic and minimizes the rise in interest rates from larger debt burden. In the light of this adding more social programs he says could lead to asituation of high interest rates double or triple the 2.9% now, on refinanced or new debt.

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German exports to Russia are growing at a rate of 25% for the first quarter of 2008, according to Mangold of the Ost-Ausschuss, a group promoting trade with Russia, even though it is only 3% of all German exports. Russia- Germany trade has reached 57 billion euros for 2007. German exports to Russia are vital to the continued growth of the small and middle sized companies in Germany. About 4600 of these companies operate in Russia today. These companies produce chemicals, autos and machine tools. The promotion of this trade was the focus ofa conference in Dresden last month with top level officials from both countries.

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Matthew Curtin reminds readers about a couple of facts about Germany. There has been a leftward movement of the Christian Democrats which has supported social protections in the global financial crisis. During the crisis collapsing exports that hit Germany hard. The Free Democrats as a result are the only party campaigning for reforms and lower taxes. The Christian Democrats think some of the Free Democrats plans are unrealistic. There is heavy public questioning of free market economics, and the reason the Social Democrats did so badly with only 23% of the vote is that it supported pro market reforms and lost some of its working class base. As the work subsidies expire in 2010 unemployment could hit 11%. So he says don't expect much in the way of reforms just because the Free Democrats got 15% of the vote and are in the coalition with Merkel.

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As German chancellor Merkel pointed out at the EU summit, all central European states and Eastern European staes are not doing the same. Czech Republic and Poland are doing relatively better, Hungary, Romania and the Baltic Countries are in serious crisis. And smaller Slovenia and Slovakia are part of the core countries in the EU which use the euro. The Baltic countries are looking to Sweden to help and the Swedish Finance Minister has said it is the political responsibility of Sweden to help the Baltic countries, which Sweden should consider as part of the home region. Romania is looking to a reluctant Germany for help. And voices in Europe are asking if it isn't the political responsiility of Western European countries like Germany to help, and if not what does it mean to be part of the European Union? The Eastern European countries caught up in this crisis with their currencies losing value and large loan repayments to western European banks, feel they embraced the liberal capitalist model without any knowledge or experience with its fluctuations and crisis prone nature, as part of the integration into a united Europe. Now they are left they feel, to drift on their own. The recent emergency European summit meeting in Brussels saw the Czech prime minister Topolanek, who holds the rotating presidency of the EU, say that no member would be left in the lurch, and the need to avoid a dividing line in Europe that North-South or East-West. The Hungarian prime minister insisted on a special European Union fund of upto $241 billion to protect the weakest members, and circulated a paper saying that Central Europe's refinancing needs for 2009 were $380 billion. So far the governments of the EU have already spent $380 billion in bank recapitalizations and put up $3.17 trillion to guarantee bank's loans and to get credit moving again. And the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank and the World Bank have promised $31.1 billion to Eastern European countries....

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Many of the young people joining terrorist groups come from Tunisia. A security expert tells DW.com that the radicalization of youth in Tunisia began with the overthrow of Ben Ali and his government in Tunisia at the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011. Ben Ali's regime detained many of the people in opposition groups, leading to the release from prisons during the revolution. The radicalization of Tunisia's youth began during this period, according to this report. The Benghazi attacks on American embassy from Libyans opposing Gaddafi who had crossed the border into Mali, also followed a similar pattern after the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya. In Libya many radicalized people in opposition groups were released from detention following Gaddafi's overthrow. The current democratically elected government of Tunisian president Beji Essebsi is monitoring the situation. This report describes the experience of some Tunisians in terrorist groups who were brought back home from other countries by their families. EU countries and the U.S. supported the Arab Spring but the aftermath was not well managed leading to further upheaval, and now terrorism. Some of this happened as the governments changed in the U.S. with Obama replacing Bush in the U.S. and Hollande replacing Sarkozy in France, and showing little interest in managing the aftermath or helping the new governments in Libya, Tunisia and other countries make a smooth transition with aid, security assistance, and maintaining the basic services provided by government. A well formulated and conducted effort from the West could have prevented the worst effects that are seen in 2014-2016. The costs to contain the crisis that has ensued are far greater than what would have been needed in material resources and expert assistance from the developed countries of Europe and the U.S.- without military involvement as there was a general sense of being lifted from years of dictatorship in Arab North Africa, and general sense of goodwill towards the West during the Arab Spring.   ...

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In the third fiscal quarter ending June 28, 2014, Apple sold 35.2 million iPhones, up 13% from the year ago quarter. Profit reported was $7.75 billion for the quarter, up from $6.9 billion in the prior year quarter. Revenue increased to $37.43 billion from $35.32 billion the prior year quarter. Apple is not experiencing the weakness in smartphone sales that Samsung is seeing. The strong sales comes with increasing sales in China following the distribution deal with China Mobile. iPad sales slowed with sales declining to 13.3 million iPads in the quarter, down 9% from the prior year quarter. While Samsung has difficulty in preventing lower cost competitors such as Xiaomi and Huawei from eroding sales in China Apple sales are increasing. Apple's revenue in China increased by 28% for the quarter. China is a western brand conscious market as seen in sales of U.S. and German made automobiles. Another trend Apple is capitalizing on is the sale of larger screen iPhones. Screens larger than 5 inches make up 20% of iPhones shipped in China, according to IDC, which are estimated to go up to 50% by 2017....

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Private equity firm 3G Capital Partners of Brazil innovates its way in cost reduction with the use of 'zero based budgeting' tool to have managers justify budgets each year from scratch. The firm hopes to use these skills in bringing down costs in the merged Heinz-Kraft Foods company. Shifting consumer preferences from packaged foods to fresher foods are pressuring sales and margins in the packaged foods industry, creating the need for new ways to run these companies to improve financial performance.

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Pearlstein says in the WPost that the analysts at Goldman Sachs who says companies are undervalued in October 2009, are acting the part of Goldman's marketing machine so that Goldman can use its M&A activity, its trading desk and other financial stock and bond issues to make higher profits. But this risks creating another bubble as there has been a50% runup in stock prices with the DJ average close to 10,000 in October 2009. He says GOldman analysts are talking about how the cash that is on the balance sheets of companies can now be used for acquisitions instead of product development or productive investments. This is dangerous because finance ended up in shaky products like mortgage securities in the last decade instead of being put to productive use in investments for the nation's future. See the links to groups on US National Debt and UK national debt, articles by Kandish on the debt and the risks the US is facing. All the liquidity run up by the Fed can create another bubble if not mopped up. If the Fed moves too quickly at some point when it sees the bubble get out of hand, unemployment and credit tightening could throw the economy into a downward spiral....

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The latest Commerzbank estimates show Germany and Japan, both with large capital goods industry, showing declining GDP of about 7% in 2009. That is a steep decline stemming from the lower demand in industrializing countries like China, India and other countries. The German government has only committed so far 88 billion euros ($120 billion) or 3.5% of GDP. To get some idea what the German government is thinking look at the GDP numbers from the government, which show only a 2.25% decline. Compare this with other estimates closer to Commerzbank's estimate- BNP Paribas shows 5.4% contraction, Deutsche Bank 5%, German think tank DIW 4-5% drop. And the government estimate scheduled date for revision is April 29. This may explain the gap between what the Obama administration is saying to the Europeans: you need further stimulus, and what the Chancellor Merkel is saying: we will be just fine. The French government is saying saying the same thing the German government is saying. But France with a smaller export industry is expected to see a drop of less than 4%, the USA 4%, by Commerzbank estimates. Experts say as German elections approach in September, Merkel is going to have to respond with larger stimulus amid large job losses. And sentiment may be shifting in France as job losses mount, as evidenced by large turnout across France calling on the government to help in recent demonstrations....

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Dirk Kurbjuweit of Spiegel says Merkel needs to show strong leadership to overcome the challenges with the rise of right wing populists in the U.S., Britain and France. He points to the leadership shown in the latter part of Kohl's term in office to promote German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The challenges include talking to the German people directly in a convincing way, and meeting the day to day challenges of life for the people with investments in education, health care, infrastructure so that people see real significant improvement. It is even necessary to reorder priorities such as the shift from nuclear energy so that this challenge is met. It is not enough to hope that more Christian Democrats turn out to vote than Social Democrats, that the fifth of Germans who feel the economy is not working for them and feel threatened by immigration see real changes being made to address their concerns.

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Germany and France finally get serious about tax havens that help people evade billions of dollars in taxes. They will push for international sanctions at the next G20 meeting.