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BBC shows the elections in which large majority of seats went to the Liberals, Conservatives, Labour. In 1945 Clement Attlee won a majority of 145 seats on a program to rebuild Britain after the Second World War, to create the NHS and social security for the older population. Conservatives under Winston Churchill lost 189 seats, but came back 6 years later as the Cold War with the Soviet Union was happening. Twice this changed in 1979 with Margaret Thatcher unwinding some of the aspects of the unions and public enterprises, followed by Labour under Tony Blair accepting the culture of Conservatives that has gone on to the present day in which government is not proactive. Blair won majorities in 1997 and 2001 of 179 and 167 seats yet as seen from today laid the seeds of the problems of Conservative policies getting such wide acceptance that even when the River Thames was polluted and water was privatized for profit motives including loading $19 billion in debt, it did not cause serious questions to be raised. The public shift to Labour in 2024 happens when a complete reversal of the culture of the government not being proactive in the public interest and not supporting  manufacturing to compete worldwide is being reversed. ...

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WSJ Editorial talks about so called "spending blowouts" of the Democrats in 2024. Are Republicans saying let the roads, bridges, airports, built in the 1940-1960's heyday of American industrialization as China and India's is now, let them crumble? What do the educated minds of the WSJ Board say about coal in China and India and their effects on their massive use multiple times that of US and EU in history, is it not damaging to the environment? And why the Chinese realized the health in North China with coal winter use was worse than in South China cut their coal use. Are they saying lets burn fossil fuels and ignore, and if investment has to be made in solar who is going to do it? Is it OK for Republicans that we just import from China all our solar panels indefinitely into the future? "Green New Deal" is just a perjorative term, policy has to be made thoughtfully and without prejudice or bias of any sort for the best that we can do for the American people, ignoring so called "right" or "left." Doing what is right, what makes sense, is a lot harder.   ...

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Institute of Fiscal Studies, IFS, shows where the money is going in Labour's first Budget. See graphs of the household income over the 75 years under Conservative and Labour governments, which shows slower growth in household income over the next 5 years. Healthcsare and Education are growing at 4%. The growth of 6-10% is for local government spending, housing, communities and local government, work and pensions, Justice, HM Revenue. The slow rise in household incomes to 2030 is the result of trickle down economics which is sold vigorously by some groups as economic orthodoxy including the largest corporations paying little in taxes. This is true also of the US. FDR called it Tory policies and policies that say trickle down economics works when it doesn't. FDR said at DNC in 1932- "And we thought the Tories left in 1776." Today this is why UK household incomes show slight growth to 2030, and even this Labour Government is hesitant to boldly question this economic orthodoxy.  For Britain the debacle of Brexit turning some legitimate questions of immigration into isolation from economies of mainland Europe adds to the problem.     ...

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Efforts to improve U.S. Russian cooperation beginning with the Trump negotiated oil deal with Russia, OPEC, and Saudi Arabia. A joint statement by Putin and Trump on the 75th anniversary of the meeting at the Elbe River on April 25, 1945 between American and Soviet troops. The effort to rekindle the spirit of the Elbe at a time of global health crisis.

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Dr. Michiaki Takahashi of Osaka, Japan, who developed the chickenpox vaccine in 1972. He decided to do research on a vaccine for chicken pox after his son contracted chickenpox in 1964 and barely survived. At the time he was at Baylor Medical College in Houston. The U.S. alone has about 4 million chickenpox cases a year. This vaccine is now used all over the world.

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Tata Group chairman Ratan Tata says JRD Tata who ran the company for most of the modern period would be overjoyed if he were alive today to learn about the return of Air India to the Tata Group. Under a deal with the Indian government Tata will pay $2.4 billion to cover one fourth of Air India's debt. The government will give up ownership in the airline. AIr India started as Tata AIr in 1932 flying mail and passengers from Karachi to Bombay during the British period. JRD Tata himself flew the maiden flight which is why Ratan Tata sees the return of the airline to the Tata Group with much optimism. Air India has 120 aircraft, 4400 domestic and 1800 international landing and parking slots. Problems at the airline led to losses of $3 million a day. It was nationalized in the 1950's. The Tata Group is India's largest steel producer, a major auto producer. It is India's largest conglomerate with $100 billion in sales, and employs 800,000 people in 100 countries.  ...

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Years of failure of politicians in Congress in Brazil, and poor decisions in running the government by the Worker's Party by overspending leaving little money for services, sanitation, health and other priorities, leads to Brazil turning to a former army officer in the 2018 elections. Corruption charges with collusion of politicians and the state owned oil company on contracts known as the Car Wash scandal further damaged the reputation of politicians in the Worker's Party. Jair Bolsonaro was elected to Brazil's Congress in 1990 after a short period in the military at a time when democratic institutions were being restored in Brazil following decades of military dictatorship. By 2014 after two terms in office the Worker's Party led by a former automobile plant worker Da Silva had lost popular support with overspending, failure to upgrade public services and neglect of basic infrastructure such as sanitation, leading to widespread protests. In the 2014 congressional elections Bolsonaro won by nearly 500,000 votes, leading to his bid to run for president from a small party which had the support of Brazil's military. The military played a role in supporting the Getulio Vargas administration from 1930-1945, which pushed industrialization in Brazil and set minimum wage, workers rights. Democracy was restored by 1945 after Brazil sided with the U.S. in the war. In 1964 the administration of Joao Goulart was overthrown in a military coup after popular discontent and protests. Democracy was restored in 1985 with centrist parties playing apart till the election of the Worker's Party under Ignacio Lula in 2008. Six years into his administration by 2014 issues of overspending and poor management of public services led to loss of popular support for the Workers Party as the public looked for alternatives to combat crime, improve public services and address problems of lack of spending on sanitation, public services, health care. The collapse of the commodities pricing boom led to higher unemployment and a shrinking economy leading to unrest and public protests.  ...

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This WSJ editorial by Joffe of Die Zeit in Hamburg and the Hoover Institution in the WSJ, says Italy's odd coalition of Five Star Movement with the Northern League cannot last as it is like having a coalition between Bernie Sanders supporters and the Tea Party in the U.S. This coalition is full of conflicts. Five Star leader Maio had earlier dismissed any idea of a coalition with a party having many opposite views, yet the coalition was put together to prevent going to the polls again. This editorial even says the coalition is as stable as nitroglycerin, and looks weirdest even when compared to other events in Italy. It says Italy had 66 governments since 1945, and Giuseppe Conte cannot last long as prime minister. The coalition is euroskeptic but 72% of Italians support staying in the the eurozone, which makes it even more inconsistent with Italian opinion.

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Thomas Grove of the WSJ describes the underground defense system prepared by the government in Helsinki, Finland, in the event of an advance into Finnish territory by Russia. Russia is holding a large military exercize at the Finnish border called Zapad 2017. All 600,000 residents of Helsinki can go underground and the country can function in the event of a Russian advance. Finland faced a Russian advance for 3 months in 1940, leading to a loss of 10% of territory but leaving the government and country intact. Lessons from this experience are kept alive today. Finland is also working closely with NATO of which it is not a member. NATO is also expanding its presence in the Baltic region.

 

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Russian president Putin was hoping for an end to sanctions. The interference in the 2016 election was done with the hope that a Trump administration could make a difference in the sanctions after the deterioration of relations in the last year of president Obama.The U.S. Congress has moved to extend the sanctions, with Democrats and Republicans coming together on this issue. This means there is not much that president Trump can do to improve relations. This report in the NYT by David Sanger even goes as far as citing George Kennan from Foreign Affairs publication in 1947, that a "long term, patient but firm and vigilant, containment of Russian expansive tendencies," is likely to be U.S.policy.

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China decides to go ahead with a reception honoring the 40th anniversary of the setting up of diplomatic ties with Japan in 1972. Hu Shuli, editor in chief of Caixin Media, economic journalist, says job losses for Chinese working in Japaneses owned companies will hurt China. China received $12.6 billion of Japanese investment in 2011, in comparison the U.S. received $14.7 billion, according to Japan's External Trade Organization.

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MccConnell, a former director of the National Security Agency (1992-1996) and director of national intelligence (2007-2009), Chertoff, a former secretary of homeland security (2005-2009), and Lynn, a former deputy security of defense (1997-2001), cite a declassified report to Congress by the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive showing China's policy of acquiring American technology in cyberspace. The authors point to the risks of Chinese espionage in cyberspace.

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After a general debacle the Congress party gains ony 44 seats in India's parliament, the lowest since independence in 1947. The BJP party under Modi gains 282 seats and sweeps the north, centre and west of the country, and parts of the south and east. Younger voters in overwhelming numbers voted against inept governance and corruption under the Congress led government of Manmohan Singh and party leader Sonia Gandhi.

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Daniel Altman's proposal for a tax on wealth over $1 million. He makes the case for taxing wealth not incomes to reduce inequality as this is where the situation in terms of inequality has worsened for the U.S. in recent decades. To support this proposal Altman cites the change in the U.S. Ginni coefficient, which measures inequality. The Ginni coefficient is anumber from 0 to 100 which goes up with higher income inequality. From the late 70's to the 1990's, the Cnesus Bureau showed this to be in the low 40's. By 1992 the Ginni coefficient went up to the mid-70's, according to the Federal Reserve data. It increased to about 80 in 2010. In 1992 the top 10% in the U.S. population controlled 20 times the wealth of the bottom 50%. By 2010 this figure triples to 65 times. and the graduated income tax even if it redistributes a small share of the wealth does little to affect the trend of wealth extremes from building up and threatening the social fabric of America, reducing mobility and opportunities for the bottom 50% to unprecedented levels since the 1950's. ...

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Egypt's presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi, leads in the first round of presidential elections over Amr Moussa. He has no ties with the Mubarak regime and comes from the Muslim Brotherhood. Morsi is an engineer trained in Egypt and the U.S. Morsi graduated with bachelors and masters degree in engineering from Cairo University, and a PhD. from the University of Southern California in 1982. From 1982 to 1985, he was a professor at California State University at Northridge, California. In 1985 he returned to teach at a university in Egypt. He was elected to parliament as an independent candidate as the Mubark regime banned the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2011 he was elected head of the Freedom and Justice Party and made its candidate for president. Because of the severe economic problems facing Egypt- a demographic explosion of young people with few job opportunities, enough foreign reserves to finance a limited period of food and essential imports and dependent on the IMF for financing, neglected infrastructure development during decades of misrule under Mubarak- a candidate with an advanced engineering background trained in the U.S. could bring the right set of skills to the job of rebuilding Egypt. ...

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China's role for World War II defeat of Imperialist Japan given prominence in 2025. China made huge sacrifices in fighting the Japanese just as Russia made huge sacrifices fighting the Nazis in Germany, yet US help was crucial in helping China stay in the war to the end in 1945. Roosevelt sent one of America's best soldiers personally selected by Gen. George Marshall, Joe Stilwell to China. The best documented writing about this period of the war and the role of Stilwell is in Barbara Tuchman's book- Stilwell and the American Experience in China. Stilwell starts his knowledge of China in the period of the First World War when he decides to take the position as military attache to the American consulate in China. Tuchman is the only writer who was welcomed by China's revolutionary leader Mao to write about China during the renewal of US relations. She gives the best account there is of how Stilwell in his different trips to China learned the language and lived with the ordinary people, embracing the conditions of China's backwardness and war torn countryside as Japan invaded. No American or European in history could be said to have done what Stilwell had done in restoring the morale and giving self respect to China at an extremely difficult time of poverty, backwardness and war. To read it is to realize how America and Americans fought all the colonial ideas of the British and the French and Dutch and embraced the dignity and culture of the Asian people. Gen. Joe Stilwell was the best of America- of whom it could be said in all races, especially in China, he defended justice and protected the weak. ...

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Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

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A revolution is taking place in the lives of rural families in India. Under the Jal Jeevan Mission put forward by the prime minister clean drinking water from tap water will reach every family in India. It was launched on Aug 15, 2019 and plans to do this by 2024. The impact is huge. Out of 180 million rural families only 33 million families have clean drinking water from tap water in the country. Clean water brings life to the countryside and access through individual tap water connection brings a revolution to people's lives in a country of 1.2 billion people. This report in the Economic Times tells us what most of us do not know that with the growth in population from about 300 million after independence in 1947 to 1.2 billion today and the drought conditions in parts of the country, the per capita water availability has fallen sharply today. Dropping from 5000 cubic metres of water per capita in India in 1951 to 1545 cubic metres of water in 2011.  The infrastructure capital to be invested is 3.5 trillion rupees or $ 50 billion. $50 billion in cement, pipes, construction, pumps, equipment, wages, conservation, skill building, knowledge in water management to revive the rural economy. Hit hard by coronavirus it boosts the rural economy. The infrastructure project could be a model for other Asian, African and Latin American countries.  Cholera and other water borne diseases can never be eliminated without clean drinking water from tap water for all families in India. It means so much during this pandemic.  ...

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This report in the WSJ points to Democrats having won consistently 18 states plus District of Columbia adding upto 242 Electoral College votes in every election since 1992. Democrats need 28 more to cross the needed 270 votes. Republicans consistently having 13 states with 102 electoral College votes. Demographic changes in recent years have shifted to where Hillary Clinton may not need to devote resources to Colorado and Virginia because of a more favorable position there.  Carrying Pennsylvania with these 2 states would put Clinton over the 270 required. Vice Presidential candidate for Clinton, Senator Keane is from Virginia and is popular in the state.  Pennsylvania has a long history favoring Democrats. North Carolina has also seen demographic changes favoring Democrats. The Clinton campaign is focussing ads on these states as well as the swing states of Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as Georgia, Arizona and Utah which are becoming competitive for Democrats. By keeping up the effort in Georgia, Arizona and Utah, Clinton hopes to make Trump divert resources there. Other two swing states are Ohio and Florida, but this WSJ report says Clinton has to win only one of the four swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina to go over 270 and Trump needs all four. Of the 20 media markets Clinton or her super PACs have focussed their ads on 16 are in these 4 states. The Clinton campaign is looking at several alternative routes to 270 Electoral College votes, which gives it more flexibility to plan the campaign.  ...

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Mark Hulbert lists the quality stocks with low P/E ratios, little debt, high return on equity, and long records of earnings growth spanning long periods that limit volatility after the emerging markets crisis of 2014. He adds a cautionary note on the idea of quality stocks by saying P/E ratios matter, that quality stocks at a high price are a bad investment and at extraordinary prices are a extraodinarily bad investment, citing the Nifty Fifty stocks of quality in 1972 that lost value in the stock market slide in 1973. He takes quality stocks Disney, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson off the list of quality stocks because of high P/E ratios, a critical criteria. Hulbert's list for financial quality companies and their P/E ratios in Jan. 2014: AT&T telecom 9.4, Aflac insurance 9.1, Allstate insurance 10.9, Apple computer and telecom 12.7, Bank of Nova Scotia 11.0, Chevron oil 10.0, Cisco computer hardware 12.2, IBM technology 11.7, Royal Bank of Canada 11.5, Wells Fargo banking 11.5. These P/E ratios compare with the S&P 500 P/E of 17.3....

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Rachel Carson played a significant role in starting the movement to protect the environment, preserving water and air quality from pesticides and other contamination. Her book "Silent Spring," published in 1962, created an awareness of the dangers to the environment from modern industrial chemicals and other contaminants. She did this with calm leadership that required many years of patience in the face of illness, keeping the long perspective in view with persistence and courage.

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Klee, along with Chagall, Kokoschka, and Picasso were painters shown at the Venice Biennale in 1948 following the war, and were commended for their efforts in defending cultural freedom in western Europe during a dark period. His paintings are now shown at the National Gallery of Modern Art in Italy in 2013 in a special exhibition- "Paul Klee and Italy." Klee trained in Munich, Germany, in 1898, and was part of the Blaue Reiter group.

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The needs of AI where the energy to power a city the size of Manhattan is needed leaves America short of meeting such supply with renewable solar, wind and natural gas. Nuclear had become dormant as the cost of natural gas and solar produced energy declined. With increasing need for clean energy the Biden administration considered reviving nuclear energy and included funds for this in its legislation.  In the last year Constellation which owns the Three Mile Plant in decommissioning status changed its plans under CEO Dominguez after attending AI meetings realizing that this was an opportunity. Dominguez had research done to match energy projects in the US with the demand including AI data centers to be convinced it made sense to invest, and meetings with Governor Shapiro. It is moving forward with $1.6 billion investment after a deal with Microsoft for energy from Three Mile Nuclear plant, delivery in 2028, at $115 per megawatt hour. It costs $142 per megawatt hour for new nuclear energy construction.  State and federal regulatory approvals are needed, and the risk of underestimating the cost of restoring nuclear at decommissioned plants are high. ...

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As Biden launches his bid for reelection in 2024 a look at Pew Research analysis of the 2020 election shows that he significantly narrowed the margins Mr. Trump had in his favor in 2016 among married men and among veterans. As NYT's assessment of the Pew Research shows it was the support gained among moderate to conservative voting groups that won the election for Biden, not the traditional Democratic constituencies among minorities where Mr. Trump had in fact gained some ground in 2020. With married men and with veteran households Trump could manage only a ten percentage lead in each, 54% Trump to 44% for Biden in 2020, a huge difference from the big gaps in 2016 of 30 points. This probably decided the 2020 election for Biden. Some of this goes back to 1913 election of a professor at Princeton, New Jersey, Woodrow Wilson. Theodore Roosevelt had split the Republican party in the previous election by supporting his nominee Taft and fighting the election against Taft in 1913 after differences emerged with Taft. Wilson was the Democratic candidate with a strong agenda for workers rights during a period of income inequality as there is today. A similar situation is also seen in the 1948 election with Democrat Harry Truman defeating Republican Dewey after putting forward a Fair Deal in a program to protect workers and families following war and economic depression. ...

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Without good governance India would fail to meet the aspirations of its youthful population of 1.2 billion people. The prevailing sense of impunity brought the country to an impasse 10 years ago and development of the country to a standstill, says prime minister Modi. Only 15 paise out every rupee reached the final beneficiary of government programs leading to a loss of confidence in government, said one prime minister. At this rate 16 lakh crores rupees out of 27 lakh crores transferred to final beneficiaries and the poor would have been lost, says pm Modi. During the struggle for independence of the 1940's, the drafting of the new constitution, early period after independence with distractions of partition, Mohandas Gandhi, Sardar Patel, Nehru, did not realize that for a period that would stretch from the 1950's for about 70 years almost as long as half of the period of British rule India's institutions would struggle to operate. India's institutions so carefully set up would struggle to operate effectively as political parties turned to state and local funds meant for development to finance their election campaigns. A new culture got entrenched that considered this to be an acceptable way of operating- destroying the chances of development in the world's largest nation and keeping 1.2 billion people in a permanent state of underdeveloped economy.    ...