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It would be astounding to know that the average age of the CDU Christian Democratic party members and voters is about 60 years. With the aging of society a large portion of German population is older and mostly conservative, seeking to stay with the status quo. This is the support that chancellor Merkel had and her policies reflected this conservatism. Younger voters felt they were being ignored and have chosen to vote for the Greens or the Free Democrats. Even with the Greens the average age of members is about 48 years, for the FDP 51 years. Compared to this South Asian population is much younger.

 

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Democrats approach to tax reform is to retain the removal of tax breaks enacted by the Republicans under president Trump. Democrats simply increase the tax rates in their proposals so that $1 trillion net is generated in new tax revenues to finance the nation's infrastructure, to fund the other building blocks of society through social services, and help to struggling middle or lower income classes. Republican 2017 law changed tax rates for corporations from 35% to 21%. This is now seen as too generous leaving little for infrastructure and other essential needs of society such as education, child care and health. Democrats will adjust the tax rates directly.

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Sarina Wiegman who played and coached most of the time in the Netherlands has taken the England women's soccer team to the Finals of World Cup. This report compares her record to the record of Vlatko Andonovski from Macedonia in former Yugoslavia who is stepping down after the US soccer team did not make it to the round of 16, with a loss to Sweden on goal kicks after overtime. A coach from Sweden Tony Gustaavson was in charge of the Australian team that made it to the semifinals. Gustaavson was assistant to Jill Ellis who took the US to 2 title wins in the World Cup.

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Mark Rutte of the Netherlands ends a 13 year career as prime minister. His four party coalition collapsed when he proposed strict asylum rules. The Farmer Citizen party won the most votes in recent provincial elections with its rural base among farmers opposed to new restrictions on livestock herds with strict nitrogen emissions controls. Denmark is the second largest exporter of agricultural products after the US. This rural base party leads in polls. It has created new sentiment against what it sees as a globalist plot to increase immigration and destroy traditional ways of life.  It also capitalizes on the cost of living with higher energy costs.

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The 2018 budget deal brings Democrats and Republicans together by increasing defense and domestic spending both by about 10%. Spending caps are to be lifted by $500 billion over 2 years with 60% of this going to defense spending increases to bolster America's defense capabilities. Defense spending is a top priority for Republicans.  For Democrats this means staving off some cuts in Medicaid and Medicare, more college affordability funding, and 4 year extension of the Children's Health Insurance program that had expired, funding community health centers for another 2 years.

This also shows that both sides can reach agreement even with divisive rhetoric and serious differences over policies.

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Friedman in the NYT says China overreached especially since 2012 on trade, technology transfers, and in relations with American allies Australia, India, Japan, and America underperformed for its people by not investing in infrastructure, in workers incomes and in health and public services, education. Underinvestment in the very structure and backbone of American society while billions were wasted in foreign wars and in misallocation of investments by Silicon Valley and other investors. The coronavirus failure to get adequate warning through WHO and China's cooperation for American teams to be admitted immediately after January 10 request by the U.S. for Wuhan was a turning point.  

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President Trump says TikTok app would be banned in the U.S. after September 15. He said he had talked to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and told him Microsoft could buy the apps U.S. operations but if it does so a substantial portion of the price must go to the U.S. Treasury because of the approval of the deal the U.S. is giving after the review. He told Nadella "Look it can't be controlled for security reasons by China- too big,too invasive. Here's the deal, I don't mind whether its Microsoft or somebody else, a big company, a secure company, a very American company buy it."

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Initially Microsoft will be making a large outlay for TikTok which will affect its margins as TikTok has still to be profitable. The longer the deal is put off the less value for TikTok closer to the September 15 date when the U.S.bans it completely. Tiktok is losing money on about $1 billion in revenues, so is SnapChat with double the revenue base. So that Microsoft under Nadella which is careful to in making investments of this kind needs to consider the impact on Microsoft's profitable business. Only Linked In has been a profitable acquisition for Microsoft, others Nokia, Skype and the possible acquisition of Yahoo have failed badly.

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A draft decree in the prime minister's office shows a plan to place quarantine covering the Lombardy region of Italy and nearby provinces, including the cities of Milan, Venice and Modena. The population in this region of 10 million people will face restrictions on mobility. The draft decree says transit in and out of the quarantine zones will be granted only in the event of "grave situations." It urges people to stay inside their homes and not travel. A similar quarantine in China around the Wuhan region helped limit the spread of coronavirus and bring it under control. Today the worst hit and not yet under control are Iran and Italy.

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Google shares closed down about 4% in 2014, and at one point were down 10%.

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A poll by Reuters and the University of Michigan in mid 2012 shows U.S. voters by a large margin of about 10% feel they are worse off in 2012 than they were in 2008. The situation in working class towns such as Allentown, Pennsylvania, is likely to be critical for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election of 2012.

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The RNC speech of the former president is described by the WSJ Editorial Board as long and rambling for 90 minutes after a good start becoming a typical speech that did not broaden the appeal, and with its random comments lacking clarity. The former president's claims on crime up when it is actually down by 15% according to FBI. On inflation and cost of living the inflation peaked at 9% is now down to 3% in 2023 with cost of living actions by Biden and Powell. The former president's solution to "Drill, baby drill," would only affect gas prices a bit, and do nothing for the principal causes of inflation in housing, in rental of apartments, in prices of automobiles and auto repairs, and in cost of drugs, student loans. Only a concerted action on all fronts as Biden and Powell have done would work, along with large investments in American manufacturing and jobs, which can only be done if no tax cuts are made for the wealthy not in the Republican platform. This means the hundreds of thousands of job creation each month happening now will stall and inflation from supply chains in China will be harder to control especially with a 60% Trump proposed tariff on Chinese imports. ...

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Trend following hedge funds that take pride in fast moving have dwindling returns 2025. 2025 with DJT decisions to create new world trade rules- that one can call LPF for Level Playing Field- are upsetting hedge funds and other financial funds returns. Trend setting group inside overall hedge funds lost 10% in first half of 2025. All hedge funds as group made 4% to S&P's 6% in first half showing that they guessed wrong with all their quant which cold not understand the idea of anew LPF system in world trade and the other maverick changes taking place in the tax system and in government approach to governing and ways ministries should be run. The problem solving approach is different - it's not taking no for an answer and says we can fix it so that America and the American people do not come out at the short end where old politicians and old political parties seem to have been headed.

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For decades without the leadership needed and the collaboration of the entire tech sector and health systems the goal of getting a patients record on the computer or on a phone app anywhere in the US across all health systems was out of America's grasp. This was happening even in countries such as Indonesia and India which were vastly improving health outcomes through their apps of patient health records available across the entire country. The US finally is making that effort which should help not only treat patients but give patients better control of their food, alternative ideas on what to eat and for exercise, other ways to improve their health. CMS Medical Records Interoperability Framework brings together 21 networks to align to it, 60 companies to work collaboratively, and 30 companies to try and improve patient health outcomes and their health in general. Australia, Indonesia and countries in Europe have done this, says Health Secretary Robert Kennedy. It is time the US did so also. ...

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The Indian Supreme Court Bench of Chief Justice DY Chandrachud and JB Pardiwala rejected a petition of 14 political parties in India for guidelines to prevent avoidable arrest of political opponents, saying it is asking for special immunity for politicians.

"Ultimately a political leader is also a citizen, and as a citizen he or she is amenable to the same law."

"Once we accept that political leaders stand absolutely on the same footing as citizens of the country, they will face the same due process of law and are not entitled to a higher immunity than what is available under law."

"You (political parties) say there is selective targeting of opposition leaders. But at the same time you say you do not want any special treatment of politicians as they are only citizens of the country, they will face the same due process of law and are not entitled to higher immunity than what is available under law."

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To limit global warming to increase in temperatures by 1.5 degree centigrade by 2030 requires 2019 global emissions of 52 billion metric tons to come down to 25 billion by 2030. If China continues to use coal the way it now does till 2030 as is expected today it will continue to have the 2019 carbon emissions of 14 million metric tons or more than half of global carbon emissions from about 27% today. Vice premier Han Zheng China's top climate and energy official has reversed course from his earlier admonition in September to "curb resolutely the blind development" of high emissions coal projects. After wide blackouts in Chinese cities and power cuts to factories in the past couple of weeks the new priority Zheng says is "increase coal supplies by any means necessary." Coal provides power to 56% of China's heavy industry. Chinese localities have 104 gigawatts of top priority coal power capacity planned more than what is installed in Japan and Russia. ...

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The details of a $2 trillion rescue package for business, the economy and households which was passed in the U.S. Congress. The U.S. government plans to take stakes in airlines in return for assistance. Some of the aid $25 billion is in the form of direct grants and some $25 billion in the form of loans. This is how it breaks down in the legislative text as shown in WSJ. To keep businesses open and from laying off employees- $454 billion loans for large companies, and $349 billion for small business loans. Safety net for families. Payments directly to households $301 billion. Unemployment insurance payments $250 billion. Support for the public health systems in states, and private health systems to tackle the health crisis and meet new needs of $117 billion. Aid to states  $150 billion To maintain flow of goods. Direct grants to cargo carriers and airlines of $29 billion. Other $198 billion.     ...

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For a decade America's leaders remained silent on taking action on all fronts including trade on countries that were sources of fentanyl. The largest and most advanced economy in the world did not take action to protect its people when countries acted with impunity on fentanyl flows. That action is being taken now. A 25% tariff will be imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada, an extra 10% tariff on China, till the illegal flow of fentanyl and smuggled migrants from these countries stops. The new president DJT said on Truth Social media- He will impose by executive order on the first day in office tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, “on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous open borders”, which would not be lifted “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country."   ...

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Tesla with a tiny falling market share of 6% in China is being outmaneuverd in China even as it gains benefits for the company and for CEO Elon Musk. It fails to make Tesla competitive in world markets ceding leadership to China.  Tesla gets 68% of 2023 profits of $10 billion from China operations. China operations of Tesla produced 947,000 electric cars 53% of its total with China sales at 600,000. Tesla was able to complete the large factory near Shanghai, the largest of its 7 plants, in record time with assistance from China's government. Elon Musk knows premier Li Qiang of China a Shanghai Communist party official which facilitated the building the Chinese plant, lower 15% tax rate instead of 25% till 2023. This 2023 1 million car production is actually not giving Tesla a foothold in the Chinese market, as Tesla's market share is falling from 7.8% to 6% of the market. What it has given China's local companies such as BYD is a world level competitor for China's local companies to compete with, learn from as China develops its own world class electric manufacturing capabilities. BYD has its own unique battery technology and is making the batteries in house. Local companies dominate a very competitive landscape in which there is very little room for error, with companies consolidating. This suggests that Tesla may be an insignificant competitor in China in the future even as it has enhanced its profitability as a company in its domestic American market with its China operation.   ...

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Both sides are presenting the issue differently creating confusion. Many Misconceptions- 1. The Department of Education did not exist before president Carter set it up in 1976. 2. It does not run Education in the US. It mostly administers student financial aid programs. These could be run by the Department of Treasury where they belong.  3. Reagan called the education department as creating "a bureaucratic boontoggle."  4. The goal of Republicans is to take education back to the states. Well run states can then run it better than by one agency setting rules and responsibility lying in the states anyway, but creating a perception of diffused responsibility so that no one can be held accountable for the woeful state of American education. Math and reading comprehension skills for students 8-15 years at different grade levels from 4th grade are dismal. US ranks low across developed countries in math and reading comprehension skills. 5. It is about sending education back to the states and parents where it belongs. Once states compete there will be an effort to  copy the initiatives of states delivering better results in math and reading comprehension. 6. Lyrarc Movement for Global Literacy is for creating high levels of ability in math and reading for children 7 to 16 years for strong foundational skills. 7. Everything starts with parents and a home that nurtures these skills and a home environment that is supportive and this can be possible across income groups given the motivation and seriousness. ...

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The Message to Congress by president James Polk on May 11, 1846 set forth the situation of the Texas Republic setup by settlers under Gen. Sam Houston in 1836 under military threat from Mexican forces. Polk set the task for its defense by the United States against Mexican military forces that were legacies of the Spanish colonial Empire in North America. James Polk said- "In communicating to Congress a succinct statement of the injuries which we had suffered from Mexico, and which have been accumulating during a period of more than twenty years, every expression that could tend to inflame the people of Mexico or defeat or delay a pacific result was carefully avoided. An envoy of the United States repaired to Mexico with full powers to adjust every existing difference. But though present on the Mexican soil by agreement between the two Governments, invested with full powers, and bearing evidence of the most friendly dispositions, his mission has been unavailing." "Upon the pretext that Texas, a nation as independent as herself, thought proper to unite its destinies with our own she (Mexico) has affected to believe that we have severed her rightful territory, and in official proclamations and manifestoes has repeatedly threatened to make war upon us for the purpose of reconquering Texas. In the meantime we have tried every effort at reconciliation. The cup of forbearance had been exhausted even before the recent information from the frontier of the Del Norte. But now, after reiterated menaces, Mexico has passed the boundary of the United States, has invaded our territory and shed American blood upon the American soil. She has proclaimed that hostilities have commenced, and that the two nations are now at war."   ...

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Russia uses SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization to present it's case on Ukraine saying a coup supported by the US and Europe was the root cause of the crisis, in other words an effort to turn a Russian language country against Russia with it's effort to delink from Russia and join the European Union. US seeing China as the main competitor is trying under a Republican administration to bring Russia back into the European and US fold. The Europeans Germany and France, UK under Macron, Starmer and Merz are pushing back and see it primarily from the Northern European perspective of a Russian threat as they have over centuries of rivalry in Europe since 1600. China sees Germany and German led EU as its main source of western technology, trade and capital needed for a state run capitalism to function effectively. Germany seeks to keep it's China relations on a even keel for its economic interests, so does China. In this situation it can be surmised that it is the Europeans that asked DJT to sanction India for buying Russian oil to cut Russian source of oil resource sales by $119 billion leaving China's $136 billion purchase of oil from Russia aside (knowing China would not cancel sales easily), to buy time till Germany can build up arms supply to Ukraine. India is buying time to make a gradual shift to stand with the US and the improved US-Russia relations under the Republicans can only help India gradually shift to where it always stands- with the English speaking people of the world, the US and Britain, a policy Gandhi firmly supported and which India as an ancient civilization of the Buddha and the Bhagavad Gita finds itself at home with.   ...

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Rosa Ines Rivera, a cook at the cafeteria for the Y.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, with 2 small children, describes the protests over the increase by Harvard administration of the premiums charged on health insurance that now take up over 10% of the income. She says she lives in public housing with her parents as she lost her apartment because she is behind on the rent, and now cannot afford to pay the increase in premiums. About 750 workers at Harvard are on strike on this issue. She says dining hall workers want the current pay of $31,193  a year increased to $35,000 to provide a living wage that helps them afford medical care, because of the high cost of living in Boston.  To get some idea of the plight of workers who provide the kind of nutritious meals that a lot of students depend on for healthy living- Rivera says she takes in about $450 a week after taxes, or about $1800, rent is $1150, which leaves $650 for herself and two children for all food, and expenses in Boston. The $4000 in premiums for health insurance would be about 330 per month, leaving her about $320 for food and living expenses with 2 children. Why the need to bring up children in poverty in America, for generation after generation, after putting in a full day of work? ...

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China's jobs situation is holding up better than expected with lower levels of economic growth. In 2014 there were 115 job openings for every 100 applicants, according to an official labor survey. Part of the reason is that the services sector is playing a larger role in growth. The services sector contributed 3.8% to growth in 2014, compared to the slower growing manufacturing sector, which contributed 3.0 percentage points. With problems in heavy industry and real estate this is reducing the need for larger stimulus spending. Official figures for GDP growth in 2014 are 7.4%.

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Nocera points out that in a larger sense pay czar Feinberg hasn't accomplished his goal- to change the ethos of the pay culture at banks and companies. $200 million to be paid out at AIG is in contracts for March 2010, and 14 of the highest Citigroup executives still will make $5 million to $9 million each, and Ken Lewis wil still get $70 million in retirement pay, and nothing that Feinberg can do about it. A lot of it has been shoved under the rug. As far as shifting compensation to stock instead of salary, Goldman and Morgan Stanley have already done that and that is a change that is already happening at these banks. But executive compensation will nevertheless be out of proportion and the public angry. Nell Minnow, the co-founder of the Corporate Library, says the only way is to throw the bums out, meaning the board members on the compensation committees. But this is up to shareholders and the job maybe to make it possible for shareholders to do so easily.