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Price for a gallon of gas is down at the pump 12% over last year in September 2024. Inflation is looking subdued at this time.

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US Fed's Powell says in Feb 2025 that the strong US economy gives more room to wait for rate cuts.  

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Firefly landing of craft on moon March 2025, first by a private company in the US working with NASA. The company is based in Texas.

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Weekly earnings in the UK climbed from 4.9% from August to October of 2024 over the prior period, according to Office of National Statistics.

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With unemployment at 13.8% and 170,000 jobs disappearing in 2009, and one in 3 Irish persons below the age of 25 unemployed, a whole generation of Irish are now headed out to other countries like Australia. At colleges like Trinity College in Dublin most of this years and last years graduates have no jobs. One think tank estimates net emigration at 40,000 in 2010.

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Sale by Credit Suisse of a $2.8 billion porfolio of bad commercial property loans to Apollo Management for $1.2 billion. Banks were reluctant to take big losses on boom time real estate loans after the financial crisis of 2008. As a result few sales with big losses ocurred. Banking profits and better financial conditions in late 2010 makes taking losses on bad loans easier to absorb. Demand for distressed assets from private equity funds has pushed up prices buyers are willing to pay. Executives at private equity firms say banks are definitely lossening up. Kingsley Greenland, CEO of loan-sale advisory firm Debt Exchange, says banks are getting more aggressive, not only marking the assets appropriately but moving forward with selling the assets. Debt Exchange sold commercial real estate loans on behalf of 38 financial institutions since October 2010, compared to 19 in the last quarter of 2009.

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The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

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Climate protection goals require rail to get its standards up and modernize quickly in Germany. Deutsche Bahn, the German Rail Network accepts that it needs radical changes. It is important to attract more people to urban transit and rail to promote climate change initiatives and to reduce gas consumption in Germany.  The head of the Deutsche Bahn Richard Lutz says the German Rail has been neglected for years and pushed to its "absolute limit."  Many rail points and signal boxes are obsolete and highly prone to failure.  About 51,000 passenger and goods trains travel through Germany every day going up to 59,000 in 2030.  Lutz says it cannot stay this way- "Increasing demand, combined with aging infrastructure and construction work, is leading to traffic jams and delays with a massive impact on all customers." More than this there is the the question how do you attract more people to not drive but take the train to save gas consumption and reduce the impact on the environment when things are so bad in the rail network? The dilemma says Lutz is "how to grow and modernize at the same time?" Under Lutz and Transport ministry plans high performance corridors are to receive a first class quality standard. More customer friendly construction should be used. And planned construction done in such a way that some sections are construction free sites for several years. Heavily used sections make up 10% of the network or 3500 kilometres and operate at 125% of capacity. By 2030 these sections will be 9000 kilometres or triple that now. Climate protection goals require getting rail up to speed.  ...

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US unemployment rate was at about 3.7% for the third quarter 2022 and 263,000 jobs were added in November according to the Labor Department. Other estimates show that these numbers could be overstated by 500,000 for the year and likely to be revised. There is a shortage of labour after the pandemic and the labor participation rate is lower than before the pandemic. The Fed chairman Jay Powell discussed the strong labor market and his plan to attack inflation with rising housing, food, energy costs coupled with wage increases using Fed policy of raising interest rates. Rates could go up to 4.5% with another 0.75 % increase in December 2022.  Powell said in response to questions at the Brookings Institution last week that he was feeling his way through this inflation episode that was very different from previous bouts of inflation having started with supply chain issues that stemmed from the pandemic. It then became widespread with fears that it could get entrenched if a sharp stand is not taken by the Fed. Powell also says that he is acutely aware that he wanted to pause and see the effects of interest rate increases so that there is no overreaching that would hurt the lower income groups. He emphasized that lack of aggressive action by the Fed could let inflation go on for 4 or 5 years hurting these lower income groups the most because the wage increases would be more than wiped out by inflation. Finding the right balance is important to Powell as he looks to manage the risks on both sides of this issue- to hit inflation hard without hurting the lower income groups of society. ...

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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What does fast growth in the world's fastest growing economy, that is a key part of America's and the European Union's and Japan's supply chain look like. It is based on people inclusive development called Sab Ka Vikas Sab ke Saath, Gandhiji's idea of the last person in the line ever present and watchful of the task at hand. This Powerpoint of the blueprint of the Indian Budget  for 2024-25 from Nirmala Sitharaman and the Finance Ministry shows a visual of what the growth looks like for the farm, industrial, housing, health, education and other sectors of the economy. It is a journey just beginning under Vikshit Bharat with a target date of the 100th  anniversary of independence 2047. Here one can see the target of increasing capital expenditures for infrastructure and various development schemes by 11.1%. GST (one tax one country) tax revenues are expected to increase by around 12% which support this budget. Strengthening financial sector to bring investment back on track after the pandemic is one of the support pillars, so is deepening and widening tax base through the GST a uniform federal tax for the whole country. Another pillar is proactive inflation management- the story of how India tackled the cost of energy by accessing from different suppliers at the best price is told this week in Feb 2024 in the WSJ. Foreign Minister Jaishankar told the Munich Security Conference with Blinken and Baerbock in the panel that India with 1.4 billion people's future at stake should be seen as done the right thing, the smart thing. Inflation has been kept at about 5%, and key economic growth projected at 7-8% over the next decade with goal of becoming the third largest economy in the world. ...

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At the core 66% of people in the US, UK and in Germany, 77% in France, Italy and Spain  in Pew Research in 2024 see the need for big economic changes. Inequality increase are often automatically seen as correlated with deterioration in standard of living. However in practice cost of living concerns and opportunity to do something about it can move in the opposite direction to inequality increases. Cost of living can improve based on gas and electricity prices and access to housing with lower interest rates independent of whether government is or is not intervening in the economy. Some interventions may not work as in the supply side shocks in prices from Covid lockdowns or simply exhaust people's patience without sufficient timely correction. A disquiet index can also move in a different direction from inequality increases when cost of living raises disquiet levels for people, and cultural issues such as transgender in schools create  additional disquiet. Failure to get bipartisanship may leave inequality issues unresolved as happens with one group student loan borrowers stuck in repayment.  In this sense inequality is only one goal and can be elusive if the overall goal of reducing disquiet index are left unresolved. A better quality of life can be achieved in other ways- as with the effort for "a rising tide lifts all boats." This can include the ripple effect of international politics where issues spill over into the US creating cultural disquiet on campuses as happened in 2024 with Israel Gaza conflict. The interplay of local and international starts adding complexity that adds to disquiet index for people in all levels of society.   ...

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GM and Ford US International Trade Commission report in 2024 sees only about a 5% increase in prices for a 25% tariff in car imports into the US from EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico and China. With US production GM at 60% Ford at 80%, both companies are better positioned to shift production to the US following 25% tariff on cars imported into the US. GM also has the financial strength to invest in new auto plants in the US. Given a period of transition US companies are in a position to tap the added demand as more cars are made in the US.  Stellantis Stellantis formed from the merger of Chrysler, Fiat and Peugeot makes many of its cars overseas in Mexico and in the EU, and has considerable exposure. Toyota Toyota sales in 2024 were 2.3 million cars, with about 60% of the production in the US. Hyundai and Kia, Nissan Hyundai makes about 80% of the 840,000 cars it sells in the US in US plants. Hyundai plans to invest $21 billion in the US to make cars in the US including $5.8 billion for a steel plant in Louisiana. Other companies may follow Hyundai to Make in the USA. VW VW had plans for an expansion to make 590,000 cars. It has current  sales of about 400,000 cars in the US. Expansion at the Chattanooga plant or putting in another plant could help it make most of its cars in the US. ...

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Philip Alston, UN expert on extreme poverty and professor at New York University School of Law, says most of the progress on poverty that the UN agencies  and elites talk about is based on one country China. In the rest of the world, in Latin America, in Africa, and in other countries in Asia the situation is not any better than it was in 1990. About half of the world's population 3.4 billion people live on less than $5.50 a day, and this is not much changed since 1990. The improvements in China could also mean that the situation has worsened in other parts of the world. The pandemic has taken the lid off the situation in Latin America with Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and other places there showing extreme weakness.  Alston studied this as UN's representative for looking at extreme poverty 2014-2020. He is clear in describing what happened. The World Bank he says set $1.90 a day for poverty line, artificially low and what will not pay for housing or food even. He calls it "scandalously unambitious as a benchmark" what would pay for "a mere miserable subsistence." By using this he says a devastating effect is being allowed to happen as more of the investment is drawn into a pro-growth narrative which pushes allocation of capital in the direction where it profits short term speculative capital and profits rather than the long term investments in health, education and public services that are vital for any country. The improvements in China have also come at the expense of communities in Europe and the U.S. as industries were being shifted with their jobs overseas since 1990, first imperceptibly and then in waves after 2000, which leaves millions exposed to poverty and social decay for the first time in history in the advanced countries. It is an unhealthy and destabilizing situation. Alston's other points are that the so called progress narrative has been used to drown out the appalling effects of policies that misallocate capital away from the vast numbers of people. And in doing this he says it has entirely upended or turned upside down the social contract with the people. From Carl Sandburg's "The People Yes" in the 1950's after the tragedies of war we have come to "The People No." Nothing could be more reprehensible than capital being allocated for dog walking apps and other speculative investments by investment funds pooling hundreds of billions of dollars when basic sanitation services, health care investments are neglected in countries like Brazil, and smaller towns and communities are being systematically uprooted for jobs and social services over three decades in advanced countries in parts of Europe and the U.S.   ...

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Unrestrained lending by state owned banks, corruption and cronyism, have led to an increase in non-performing loans and bad debt. Slovenia's government banks made extensive loans for leverged management buyouts of state owned companies in the period 2000-2010. Loans for construction projects also soured, with the capital Ljubljana having many unfinished construction sites. Bad debt at the banks is estimated at 6.8 billion euros, or 19% of Slovenia's GDP, larger than the 16% of GDP for bad debt in Spain. The anti-corruption agency reports large amounts of undisclosed income for the head of the outgoing government, and the outgoing leader of the opposition party who was Mayor of Ljubljana. An election law that requires an endorsement from members of parliament for people seeking to contest elections for the first time makes it difficult to bring new faces and thinking into parliament.

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After all the talk of slowing growth in Britain the royals keep up the spirits in England with the rebound in their activity.

Shown here with David Beckham and Dame Helen Mirren, the royals including Charles and Camilla, are bursting with energy after an illness. Charles is keen on filling every open hour in his daily calendar, not wanting any downtime. Charles sees this style of staying occupied all the time as the best way to staying healthy.

Camilla and Kate Middleton are doing the same with their own busy schedule visiting schools and boosting spirits around England.

After an event with an Italian chef "slow" food dinner Charles says it would be a British understatement if he said he was looking forward to a visit to Italy in April 2025.

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U.S. states want flexibility in applying the Medicaid program which covers 53 million Americans earning lower levels of income. This amount was $11,616 a year for working parents in 2009, according to the Kaiser Fondation. Some states have a higher income level, as high as $48,400. The problem for states are serious budget deficits, with Medicaid comparing with education as a major cost. The recession and job losses has added 8 million Americans to Medicaid rolls. The Federal government supports 57% of the Meddicaid budget on average. A provision in the 2010 health care law says states cannot limit Medicaid eligibility, or they would lose funding by the federal government. The Obama adminstration's position is that eligibility or provider cuts will not bring in large savings, and will allow larger cost-sharing by Medicaid users, with only minor cuts in eligibility. Its position is also that the law does not give the federal government waiver authority. Some of the issues raised relate to the structure of Medicaid cost and its rapid escalation. Health and Human Services says 1% of benificiaries, especially the long term care, use up 25% of the Medicaid expenditures. One astonishing fact is that two thirds of all U.S. nursing home residents are on Medicaid. The total cost is rising, from $187 billion for Medicaid in 2000, to $346 billion in 2009, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. In July 2011, $26 billion in additional federal Medicaid funding expires, which will be added to state expenses as they struggle with large deficits. In states like Maine, with generous benefits, about one fourth of all residents are in the Medicaid program. ...

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Th Obama administration's Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP, is designed to provide relief to homeowners facing foreclosure. HAMP has also prevented these homes -from the seven million home loans that are delinquent -from joining the overall inventory of homes, and depressing home prices further. Eighteen months after HAMP was introduced, it looks like HAMP has failed to help homeowners to the extent needed to revive housing. Of the 1.3 million modifications extended to homeowners, about half have been cancelled, and about one third or 422,000 homeowners have received permanent loan modifications. The results for July 2010 show that it is slowing down even more. The number of homeowners receiving modifications in July is growing at a much slower rate. 17,000 new trial modifications were started in July, 2010, but 5 times that number of loan modifications were cancelled. HAMP has reduced the montly payment through a lower interest rate and longer term, with the average borrower receiving a montly modification of $500. But even with lower payments and permanent modifications homeowners still have lots of debt. The median rato of total debt payments to pretax income is around 63.5%. And analysts estimate that 20% of borrowers with permanent modifications will re-default. The program had aroused huge expectations, hoping to help 3 million homeowners. Which is why Professor Kenneth Rosen, of the University of California, Berkeley, considers the results embarrassing for the Obama administration. Adding that the Obama administration should be ashamed of these results after all the hopes that were aroused for real help to homeowners. ...

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NHK Proportional representation exit polls for Japan's  2025 elections for parliament show twice the number of people in 20's 30's and 40's voted for Sanseito over voted for the LDP. The LDP is the party that has run Japan's government for mostly all of the past 75 post war years. It is losing its touch with the common man as issues of cost of living, migration, and income mobility affect the Japanese people as they have done in Europe and the US. The two opposition parties are the Sanseito and the Democratic Party of the People formed in the last ten years to fight the entrenched LDP governments, and the Constitutional Party of Japan that has acted till now as the main Opposition Party. Not just LDP, the Constitutional Party of Japan also draws most of its support from the 50's, 60's and 70's people age groups and are being trounced by Sanseito and Democratic Party of the People with younger age groups. This is a significant observation on the direction Japan is taking with resistance to too much tourism, too much migration, and not enough attention to Japan's national interests. The LDP under Ishiba is now navigating a new environment as it looks to running the government taking credit for the US Japan Trade Agreement and working with the new parties. ...

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It is shocking that San Francisco spends $700 million on homelessness with a lot of the money not getting people off the streets. There are large issues of how American society in 2024 had neglected the needs of large sections of the population, and not made investments in the right places, lost jobs from deindustrialization. San Francisco's new Mayor is Daniel Lurie of the Haas Levi Strauss jeans business family. His mother Miriam Haas is the billionaire widow of Peter Haas, descendent of Levi Strauss, who was president of the company. Daniel Lurie is taking a $1 salary, and his motivation for this job is to get San Francisco hit by high homelessness and crime, drug use, and office vacancy, back on its feet again. Levis Strauss was founded like Bank of America in this city on the west coast. Lurie found it hard to explain to his two children the homelessness and the dismal condition of parts of the city. He is helping hotel workers get a decent wage in a society that has created a huge gulf between the low paid with less and less access to things essential for a healthy life and people in Tech work who have vast surplus income for such access. It also means getting the police force down to 600 back up to 2000 and with good morale and public support to clean up the city. ...

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Reading for pleasure leisure reading in US at 29% and 23% for women and men in 2004 drops to 18% and 14%. Lyrarc's Movement for Global Literacy seeks to revive the practice of reading step by step including reading in English in the modern world, for improved functioning as citizens of the modern world, and enhancing the practice of reading for curiosity in different fields to expand one's horizons and that of society at large. The decline of reading is about 40% studies done by the University of Florida and the University College of London show, much larger than anyone thought possible over 2 decades in which the Nation has lost some of its dynamism. More shocking is that only 2% of 240,000 Americans followed in this study over 2003 to 2023, a mere 5000 parents out of 240,000 read to children every day. Equally shocking is that half of all Americans about 46% do not read at all and most have parents not in the habit of reading. Bad as 150 second attention span sounds  as average for Americans in 2004 UC Irvine professor Gloria Mark says this is now a mere 47 seconds. This is what social media and interactions with google, internet have done to America. The major loss is in the happiness that leisure reading and reading for fun gives us, the deep loss  for our mental well being that reduces stress and anxiety makes us feel better, says Sonke of the University of Florida study. ...

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No country benefited more than first Japan and then South Korea till 2000, and now China till 2022 from the trade and sharing of industrial technology enabled by the American backed system of trade and industry. Walter Russell Mead says in WSJ that China has chosen to challenge the system through which it developed into an industrialized nation with the US running huge trade deficits, sharing its technology and letting Chinese manufacturing displace American local manufacturing. China is seen as challenging the system. Yet what has happened is that this process of displacing American manufacturing and industry was not sustainable anyway and continued for a decade longer than it would otherwise have lasted because American industry could not easily reverse a course it had set of setting up manufacturing in China, once that manufacturing base had already been transferred from the US to China and American companies had grown accustomed to a new state of affairs of making overseas in China. Not much thought was given to how American workers would react to that situation as companies and industries making that transfer made independent decisions. This led to the election of Trump with wins in midwestern states that had suffered from loss of manufacturing communities.  The Trump tariffs on Chinese goods and the Biden administration lining up completely behind American workers and families for the first time for Democrats has sent the signal to China that it finds the situation of China's dominance in the trade system unacceptable. The document of "China 2030" of the Chinese Government with planned dominance in key sectors and industries was met with alarm across America in all parties. The paradox of Apple as a key sector in Chinese manufacturing and the largest American company is the result of policies pursued by America without realizing the true cost of shipping manufacturing out of the country. That process is now being reversed with change of management starting at Intel Corp. and other companies to bring the manufacturing base back to the US. This policy is being resolutely pursued by the US and will speed up following the pandemic which has further demonstrated how much of a mistake the policy of sending out manufacturing in critical areas such as health could be. This is the reality behind the rhetoric and verbal exchange between China and the US. With the rapid growth of Chinese manufacturing countries such as India were put in a difficult situation  as this was preventing the local industrial base developing in India with Chinese imports in the same way as it had damaged that of the US and the EU. Worse it led to the use of US and European technology in China's defense industrial base including aviation and other sectors that threatened India's borders with repeated Chinese incursions in the Himalayas, from the Pakistan western Himalayas to Ladakh and the eastern Himalayan mountains. That situation existed long before the Trump and Biden administration and the Modi administration called for a return to America of its industrial manufacturing base and its technological leadership. Both the Bush and Obama administrations and the Indian Congress administrations failed to realize the dangers of letting the US, European and Indian industrial base wither. India is not just a country but a culture that extends from the Himalayas all the way across Bangladesh to the Indonesian islands which shares a common cultural history of Buddhism and the Vedanta. This is a region that has a population of about 2 billion people. In a larger sense the cultural history extends to  Vietnam and Japan with its Buddhist culture whose origins go back to India, and also of China itself. In the larger sense this is a population of close to 3 billion people. The economic development of this region and learning from the parliamentary traditions and scientific discoveries of the modern period since 1700 is a task for both the US, Europe and the people of the region.   ...

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Japan has 1300 companies that have been around for 200 years. And one construction company for 1400 years, that specialized in the restoration wood work for Buddhist temples using ancient techniques handed down from generation to generation of carpenters from 578.  Prince Shotoku in 578 used the artisans from this company to build the Shittennoji Buddhist temple in Japan. What are the secrets of their longevity, what difficulties were overcome are shown in this amazing 15 minute NHK Japan video. 

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The Great Resignation is coming to an end as workers quit quitting by July 2024. Job hopping has been replaced by the 'big stay.'

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New investment in the USA announced in the First 100 Days of DJT 2025. These investments will create 451,000 jobs in the US.