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World Bank chief Zoellick on the global economy and how to prepare an effective long tem policy
10/02/2009
Zoellick sees the short term Stimulus and central bank monetary easing policies of 2008, as not appropriate to the long term problems of debt reduction and energy price volatility. He emphasizes the need for bridge financing for Spain and Italy though he accepts the German view that credit cannot be provided freely and reforms need to be undertaken. A partial euro bond solution is a step in the right direction.
Linked Articles
World Bank Chief Urges Euro Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/31/2012
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick SaysWall Street Journal 10/02/2009
BP, Shell and other foreign oil companies expand production in Iraq in 2012-2014
07/01/2009
Ambitious goals for oil production are set by the Iraqi government as oil companies from the, U.S., Europe, Russia and China, provide the expertise to increase production from older oil fields. Problems of infrastructure and national oil legislation hinder rapid development.
Linked Articles
Crude Oil Output Is Soaring in Iraq, Easing Markets
New York Times 06/02/2012
Oil Companies Reject Iraq's Contract TermsWall Street Journal 07/01/2009
A drastic overhaul, a sweeping restructuring is needed of the "fee-for-service" system to fix healthcare, the Obama health "reforms" risk becoming cosmetic.
06/14/2009
Cowen and Samuelson point out that without this big restructuring, taking in the uninsured into the system will only magnify the costs further. It would simply continue a unaffordable system of healthcare, that also delivers poor overall quality of healthcare for a steep price tag.
Linked Articles
Something’s Got to Give in Medicare Spending
New York Times 06/14/2009
Robert J. Samuelson - Wrong Way on Health 'Reform'Washington Post 06/15/2009
With capacity utilization at 68%, too much slack in the economy for inflation to take root.
06/11/2009
Producer Price Index showed its steepest decline since 1949 for May 2009 over May 2008. And there are still 10 unsold homes for every one sold, with the typical being 6.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Housing Starts Jump in May for Third MonthWall Street Journal 06/16/2009
Bernanke's views on how the underutilization of labor in todays markets should make inflation less of a threat.
06/11/2009
Remarks by Bernanke to the Open Market Committee of the Fed in 2003, have a relevance to the situation facing the economy today. Rising raw materials prices and the falling dollar are likely to have a muted effect on inflation. The impact of slowing wages and the high unemployment and growing underutilization of labor, in the midst of a manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 68% and continuing to fall, are likely to be the deciding factors.
Linked Articles
Slack Labor Markets Will Hold Down Prices
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
As the government sells $5 trillion in new debt by one estimate, the problem of an estimated $ 1 trillion in troubled assets on the banks books is being put off for another day.
06/04/2009
The FDIC's Legacy Loans Program's $1 billion pilot program attracts no interest. The Public Private Partnership Program of Secretary Geithner, like Secretary Paulson's TARP program before Geithner, is also unlikely to attract much interest as banks are not willing to take the prices that would require them to show large losses on their books. But this means that these problems are postponed for another day.
Linked Articles
Plan to Help Banks Clear Their Books Is Halted
New York Times 06/04/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
With $5 trillion of new debt issue estimated in 2009-2010, the prospect of continued bailout of auto industry for years dims outlook for reversing this.
06/03/2009
Some experts point to the need for a 50% reduction in capacity in the auto industry from 2008. Demand may be lower than the 9.5 million vehicle year that the auto task force says is needed for GM to breakeven. This will mean continued government aid to the industry for a number of years.
Linked Articles
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World Growth
New York Times 06/04/2009
Kicking the Tires on the General Motors DealWashington Post 06/03/2009
Looking at it from Benjamin Graham's perspective this sure is overoptimism, prices of share overestended and overpriced.
05/23/2009
A reminder to take Benjamin Graham's perspective and view things from the "the standpoint of eternity rather than day to day."
Linked Articles
If You Think Worst Is Over, Take Benjamin Graham's Advice
Wall Street Journal 05/23/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
Two scenes-one of Gates and the other of Sgt. Hyland- and the knot that ties them together.
05/15/2009
Scenes of a rainy night at an airforce base in Delaware, as Defense Sec. Gates prays in a 747 with draped coffins of dead soldiers. And the scene of a maimed soldier, Sgt Hyland, weeping in front of a picture of Specialist Jonathan at a battalion hall in Diyala province. near Baghdad. And the relevance to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Linked Articles
Wounded Soldiers Return to Iraq, Seeking Solace
New York Times 10/15/2009
Pentagon's Gates Keeps Single-Minded Focus on Dual Wars in Iraq and AfghanistanWashington Post 05/15/2009
The rapid structural shift in employment to new industries and fields may create high unemployment even as millions of vacancies go unfilled.
04/30/2009
The Labor Departments JOLT statistics for job openings shows over 3 million job vacancies. The reason for this is the mismatch in qualifications and the speed with which industries are downsizing, and the shift to new industries and fields away from banking, retail, construction and autos. This makes new initiatives in retraining and government cost sharing to enable companies to hire and retrain super critical. Germany has some initiatives lkke this.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's BadBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
Grantham and Zweig express deep skepticism about the stock markets 2nd quarter 2009 recovery.
04/23/2009
Too many of the companies that looked like "garbage" to Zweig have gone up steeply, and Grantham expresses the same skepticism when he says 'the junky companies have been diluted like hell just to keep them alive."
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Wall Street's Clearance Sale Leaves Few BargainsWall Street Journal 06/06/2009
Laffer says inflation and high interest rates are a sure thing with the $1 trillion increase in the monetary base since Sept 2008.
04/23/2009
This is the largest increase in the monetary base in the last 50 years by afactor of 10, and is unlike anything ever experienced before. He sees inflation and rising interest rates as a result surpassing anything seen in the 1970's. Bernanke he says faces a Hobson's choice between contracting the monetary base and putting the economy back in recession and letting things go the way they are resulting in steep inflation. He sees the Fed having the option of increasing the reserve requirements at banks, to restrain the increase in the monetary base.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
U.S. president Obama, lobbyists and the 2010 Obama health care law
07/24/2009
The political process and the influence of lobbyists on Congress and the White House constrains the development of laws that control healthcare costs. Higher health care costs means less money for infrastructure development, education, research and development funding, and other priorities which build a future for Americans.
Linked Articles
E-Mails Highlight Extent of Obama's Deal With Industry on Health Care
New York Times 06/08/2012
Obama's Health Expert Gets PoliticalWall Street Journal 07/24/2009
Aspects of the Reform proposal that were influenced by the work of Prof Sunstein and Prof Thaler at the University of Chicago.
06/17/2009
Sunstein and Thaler's book "Nudge" talks about the role psychology plays, and behavoural aspects play in human behaviour. The President is a friend of Sunstein from their days at the University of Chicago law school. The onsumer Financial Protection Agency and its role, says Zweig, takes some ideas from Prof. Sunstein's work to protect consumers.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Financial Reform Plan: The Condensed Version
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
About Time: Regulation Based On Human NatureWall Street Journal 06/20/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, on the risks of inflation.
06/11/2009
Krugman responded to Laffer's oped in WSJ with an op-ed of his own in the NYT suggesting that Bernanke's Fed should stay the course. In this article Peter Coy, aveteran reporter and analyst of BW, looks at the situation and the facts. Demand is so weak in the economy, that the Fed's expansion of the money supply only helps make up for this and still falls short. The economy will be fragile for some time to come so reversing course is simply dangerous. In the video that goes with this he tells Mandel that Bernanke is right and should stay the course.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Why the Fed Isn't Igniting InflationBusinessWeek 06/18/2009
The dangers of high unemployment in the American economy.
06/06/2009
WIth job losses of 467,000 in June 2009, Krugman sees a joblosses hole of 8.5 million jobs since the last recession. The 3 1/2 million jobs the stimulus is supposed to create by 2010 end fade in comparison to the scale of job loss that is emerging. With declining earnings, there is the additional prospect of deflation.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/03/2009
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a LifestyleWashington Post 06/06/2009
Obama's Cairo speech on June 4, 2009 to the Muslim world coincides with Moussavi taking on Ahmadinejad for his extremism in Teheran in an election debate.
06/04/2009
Moussavi debated forcefully with Ahmadinejad on Iranian television calling for good sense in relations with the rest of the world and calling Ahmadinnejad an extremist. He called Ahmadinejad's denial of the Holocaust as undermining Iran's dignity, while Obama called it baseless, ignorant and hateful. Something that could only occur in the climate created by Obama's opening of a dialogue with the Muslim world and helping melt old attitudes and perceptions.
Linked Articles
President Obama's Cairo Appeal
Washington Post 06/05/2009
Iran President and Challenger Clash in DebateNew York Times 06/04/2009
An Arab view about the need to change old attitudes and perceptions about US and Muslim world differences.
06/03/2009
The need for education in the Muslim and Arab world that helps melt old attitudes and perceptions. This is a large region covering the Arabs in Egypt and North Africa to Muslims in South Asia.
Linked Articles
President Obama's Cairo Appeal
Washington Post 06/05/2009
Education vs. ExtremismWall Street Journal 06/03/2009
S. Korea's second household debt binge in the 15 years since the 1997 financial crisis
05/18/2009
The first period of rising household debt ocurred with the credit card boom when the government promoted consumer spending as a way to stimulate the economy. By 2003 this became a serous problem and the government rescued a credit card issuer in 2003. Household debt is again a major problem in 2012 with the increasing number of companies in financial lending that are not regulated.
Linked Articles
Notes From Another Credit Card Crisis
New York Times 05/18/2009
S. Korea tries to curb mounting debt and avert a crisis - The Washington PostWashington Post 07/09/2012
How the Americans and Western Europeans are coping with joblessness in 2009.
05/04/2009
The experience in the USA conpared to the experience in Germany and Spain. How social and family safety nets play a part in Europe in helping Spain cope with close to 20% unemployment and Germany with close to 10% unemployment. Role of immigrtants in Spain and the public sector in France in mitigating effects on older workers with steady jobs who remain only slightly affected.
Linked Articles
Spain Largely Avoids Unrest Even as Economy Slumps
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2009
U.S., Europe Are an Ocean Apart on Human Toll of JoblessnessWall Street Journal 05/07/2009
What America can learn from the German example for government help to retrain workers and share costs to hire and retrain.
04/30/2009
The need for initiatives in this area are supercritical to handle the economic recovery correctly because of deepseated changes in the labor markets. In the absence of this high unemployment will coexist with millions of vacancies because of amismatch of qualifications. A lack of worker mobility. because of housing problems compounds this situation.
Linked Articles
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's Bad
BusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Gaps and flaws in the stress tests could cause problems later on
04/26/2009
How the Citigroup stress test conclusion does not match up with large pending losses in aworst case scenario. The ineffectiveness of the regulatory structure, as the FDIC is burdened with a large loss sharing agreement with Citigroup, but has not been able to get a change in the management at Citiigroup so that action is speeded up.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2009
The Stress Test ResultsNew York Times 04/26/2009
With American households working down debt of 130% of disposable income a consumer led recovery is unlikely.
04/23/2009
The debt load for American households is close to the total output of the American economy in 2008. The disappearance of easy credit, the rising unemployment, and reduced hours of work, and lower or stagnant wage levels, are serious constraints to consumer spending.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
On Borrowed Time: Consumer-Led RecoveryWall Street Journal 06/10/2009
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