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New York Times Original article ›
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How to deal with Bush era tax cuts is a big issue dividing Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. If no deal is reached by Jan 1. taxes on the average middle income family would increase by $2000 in 2013. Median inflation adjusted income declined 8.9% to $50,054 in 2011 from $54,999 in 1999, and economic mobility has fallen. The Democrat's position is for Bush tax cuts to apply to incomes below $250,000. Peter Orszag of the Congressional Budget Office and Jared Bernstein point out that while this makes the tax code move in a progressive direction it also creates handicaps in providing a sufficient revenue base to support middle class spending programs down the road. According to the Tax Polcy Center, if Congress is unable to reach agreement and all tax increases go into effect Jan 1, taxpayers in the bottom 20% of income distribution would see a $412 increase in taxes compared to an increase of $633,000 for the top 0.1%. New York Mayor Bloomberg has supported eliminating the Bush tax cuts for all groups, saying there is no free lunch. Alan Krueger, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, says the trends caused by globalization and skill-biased technological change which have increased inequality are likely to continue or accelerate. ...
New York Times Original article ›
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The remarkable composition of the most vibrant immigrant filled city in the world, with 47% of the employed being immigrant and foreign born, mostly from developing countries such as Dominican, Chinese, Mexican, Guyanese, Jamaican, Ecuadorean, Haitian, Trinidad and Tobago, and Indian. The city's immigrant population is 3.1 million, 37% of the total population of 8.2 million. The report is written by Joseph Salvo, director of the population division of the City Planning Dept. and Arun Peter Lobo, deputy planning director. Dominicans are 380,000, Chinese 350,000, and Mexicans 186,000. During 2002 to 2011 Chinese population went up 34%, Mexicans 52% and Dominicans 3%. Queens has 1.09 million immigrants, half of that borough, Brooklyn 946,500 or 37% of the borough. The 37% immigrant foreign born population of the city compares to 27% for the New York Metropolitan region. Other interesting details- the growth in the Chinese population of about 89,000 in the city is greater than the entire population of Indians of 76,000, and the large growth in the Ecuadorean population by 22,000. The Indian population went up by 8000 or 12%. Indians in the New York Metropolitan region were in the upper income groups in neighborhood income comparable to people from UK, Germany and Israel, with Chinese being from lesser neighborhood income groups. Median income for Indians in the city was $84,000 compared to Chinese of $43,000, with 28% of Chinese immigrants having a college degree compared to 65% for Indians. This suggests immigrants from China are from poorer areas....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Adly Mansour, a judge with the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt, is appointed by the military as president of Egypt. He was to take office as Chief Justice before the June 2013 protests in Egypt intervened to delay this. On July 3, 2013 he was sworn in as president before the Supreme Court. Mansour is one of two judges selected by president Morsi. He is a graduate of Cairo University, and studied public affairs and management in Paris before joining the judicial sytem in 1977. His decisions as judge went against both Mubarak and Morsi, showing his independent position as a judge on the Supreme Court. The judiciary is now taking an important role in Egypt similar to the role it has played in Pakistan, another Muslim country adopting democratic forms of governance after decades of coups and military rule since the 1950's. The larger Muslim countries in the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and Egypt are faced with the challenge of balancing the demands of modernization with tradition, the demands of educated urban population with the more devout Islamist rural population, and creating stable transitions in democratically elected government. Islamists such as president Erdogan in Turkey who described western democratic forms of government as a train to get to a destination have still to take in to account the need to incorporate opposing secular views in governance. In this sense Turkey is not the model for governance as it once appeared for Egypt, Pakistan Iran and other Muslim countries. A new consensus in society needs to develop that respects all aspects of democratic governance including respect for the role of the opposition in a democracy, the role of an independent impartial judiciary, and the role of independent media. This will take time to develop just as it took time to develop in Europe and North America....
New York Times Original article ›
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Questions abound about Steven Chu, is he a scientist who handled administrative positions, like being vice chairman of the Physics department at Stanford, and head of the Berkeley Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, with its $600 million budget and 400 staff? Or is he something more with the stuff to get things done to remake the way America makes and uses energy? Because running the Energy Department means running a place with 114,000 employees and a budget that has doubled under the Obama administration. And he has to disperse $39 billion in Stimulus money without it being wasted. And the priorities are just as big and important- ending America's dependence on fossil fuels, rebuilding the nation's electrical grid, and addressing climate change. WIth so much to be done, answering questions in Congress and handling the media may not be the hardest part, even though its the stuff that he likes the least. Its making things happen with the right investments in place for the new technologies that would help break the dependence on fossil fuels, and address climate change. Right now he has no Deputy secretary. He has brought in Matt Rogers an energy expert at McKinsey & Company. Matt and Chu's brother Morgan provide insights into his character. Says Matt Chu is kind and nice but he is not patient. He likes to see things move muuch quicker than things are done around the Energy Department. Chu himself talks about this. He says the bureaucracy in Washington is a place where Newton's law of motion does not work. Once things are set in motion you have to apply force or the bureaucratic atmosphere gets it derailed and it stops. His brother Morgan points to Chu's inclination to challenge established dogma. ...
New York Times Original article ›
The New York Times Original article ›
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In this exceptional essay in the New York Times, Prof. Eitan Hersh of Tufts University is critical of the political hobbyism that has taken the place of the hard work of civic participation at local levels. Its easy to bash someone on the social media channels, and not have to talk to real people in face to face conversations as happens on social media with one sided conversations happening in a vacuum. He points out that real civic participation can be boring, take energy and dedication, and involve taking the trouble to do something for the public good. He calls this engaging in a sinking low type of politics which appeals to people operating in their comfort zones and doing things that have short attention spans, and which offer instant gratification. He says Democrats should pay attention because mass engagement was seen as their thing, what they have fallen into says Hersh, is what appears to be mass participation but which is not. Middle and upper class Americans are particularly at fault of operating in their comfort zones, using the internet to express opinions as a leisure time thing, yet shirking from the hard work of civic duty activated by self interest and public interest. This has replaced real conversations between neighbors, between parents, real conversations that involve listening, and putting oneself in the other person's shoes, conversations that recognize the need to change views as one's understanding grows, or let oneself be nudged with fresh thinking. Conversations in which all sides are learning. ...
New York Times Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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How rural Alabama views newspapers in print.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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MSNBC viewer numbers have declined sharply with daytime viewers falling below 50,000 in certain morning periods. It is shifting to straight news after a period of very liberal slant to news coverage, with Brian Williams providing news coverage.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The local elections in Turkey with the AKP winning 46% of the vote, the CHP 28%, after 80% of the votes were counted on March 30, 2014. The AKP retained control of the mayors position in Istanbul where Erdogan made his start in politics. With a little less than half the vote going to opposition parties and the suppression of the media by the Erdogan government, Turkey remains as divided as ever. Turkey's economic boom on which Erdogan stakes his claim to govern has depended on a credit boom based on foreign capital inflows and foreign investment. The crisis in emerging markets has reduced foreign capital inflows, the political divisions have reduced inflows even further, creating serious economic risks for Turkey that Erdogan and AKP appear to be oblivious to.
New York Times Original article ›
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The Leveson Report on newspaper ethics and practices in Britain calls for a parliamentary statute to support a new body to replace existing self-regulation efforts. The Press Complaints Commission would be replaced with a new body with tougher investigative powers and independent of newspaper influence, and fines ranging upto 1.6 million pounds.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Evidence of the multicultural society that the U.S. is becoming is shown in Census Bureau information showing that 50.4% of children under the age of 1 year were Hispanic, black, Asian American or other minority groups. This is up from 49.5% in April 2010 census information. A striking change is that the white population is growing older and the Hispanic population is much younger as a whole. Today minorities are about 37% of the population in the U.S., with the District of Columbia, California, Hawaii, New Mexico and Texas, having minority population in the majority. The median age for white non-Hispanic people is 42 compared to 28 for Hispanics, and early 30's for Asians and Blacks. The baby boom of minority children is also because the number of white women in their 20's and 30's has declined over time as the White non-Hispanic population has aged. Another change that is being seen is that immigration from Mexico has declined to the point where some Hispanics are going back to Mexico. William Frey, a demographer from the Brookings Institution says immmigrants will continue coming from other parts of the world when the economy recovers. The timing for immigration say demographers is good because without the immigrants the U.S. would have an aging society like that in Japan....
Washington Post Original article ›
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Pearlstein says the major news stories of today all are about the same theme- of how the US was encouraged to live beyond its means by trading partners who prospered as this went on, with the tacit agreement of financial and political leadership in the US who raised no alarm about this. These stories are: the G-20 meeting in South Korea with the goal of rebalancing the world economy, the President's Deficit Commission Report recommending bold steps in changing the tax and spending policies of the US, the criticism of the Fed's decision on $600 billion of quantitative easing, and the renewed concerns about Ireland where severe cuts in public spending have failed to reverse a downward slide.These trading partners prospered by lending Americans the money to consume more than they produce. It was he says a wonderful arrangement while it lasted, because it helped bring millions out of poverty in Asia, while letting Americans enjoy a transitory period of a higher standard of living. This unsustainable arrangement converted the US from world's biggest creditor nation after World War II to the world's bigggest debtor nation. He credits Geithner for coming up with a more convincing and less confrontational way to correct the imbalances by setting limits on the deficits and surpluses of trading nations. He points out that the Chinese have barely budged on the issue of an undervalued currency, the world be damned. And the German and Chinese criticism rings hollow he says, as both countries are the main beneficiaries of the current system. The normal mechanism of correcting imbalances with a floating rate exchange system is hardly relevant, as it is incompatible with state run economy and strategy of export growth of China. Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson have presented he says a bold deficit reduction plan that is credible, fair, economically sound. Even though it was received with the usual complacency and lack of awareness both in the media and in Congress. The simple reality after all the awfully complicated details and the painful implications is this: Americans have to consume less and produce more, and trading partners have to consume more and produce less. And this shift cannot be pushed into the future as our trading partners would like....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
WSJ Original article ›
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Trofimov of the WSJ gives exceptional insights into Iraq in 2017 under prime minister Abadi. Iraq he points out survives as a democracy under Abadi with free elections unlike most of the Middle East. Even pro-Iranian militia leaders who fought U.S. troops are willing to concede that after many mistakes by the U.S. in the region there is hope and the U.S. action led eventually to this positive outcome.  Under prime minister Haidar Abadi Iraq has an opposition with TV channels opposed to the Abadi government freely operating. Abadi is a British educated engineer and says here that he believes in a multi ethnic democracy for Iraq. He was chosen to replace the openly sectarian government of Nouri Makliki which led to the loss of parts of Iraq to Islamic State. With that part of the conflict coming to a close and Iraq regaining most of what was Iraq before the conflict Mr. Abadi's stature has risen. Abadi says he will bring all pro-Shiite militias under government control. The lessons of the last couple of years, the failures of sectarianism under Maliki leading to the rise of Islamic State are not lost on the Abadi government. It is taking steps to maintain friendly relations with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and present a multi ethnic image. Abadi and Maliki both are from the Shiite Daiwa party. During the recent dispute with the Kurdish government of Mr. Barzani, the legitimacy of a democratic government played a role in winning over Kurdish politicians so that control of the oil rich province of Kirkuk was reclaimed by the central government. Mr. Barzani was seen as overstaying his term by 2 years. This has further increased the credibility of the Abadi government. Particularly as it lets a free press and freedom of expression operate in Iraq through the media and respects this. Abadi says: "We suffered a lot under a dictatorship. We should never allow dictatorship to come back." New elections are to be held in Iraq with Mr. Maliki representing other parts of the Daiwa party, elections in Kurdistan region with politicians opposed to Mr. Barzani taking part, and in other parts of Iraq. Iraq's democracy is still struggling, but there is hope if the lessons of recent years of sectarianism are not lost for the leaders and peoples of Iraq's different ethnic regions. Just as Iranian election gave a new term to the moderates under prime minister Rouhani there is a sense that the elections will do the same in Iraq. Rouhani won 57% of the vote with 23 million votes to 38% for the other candidate Mr. Raisi who won 15 million votes. Except for the eastern part of the country Mr. Rouhani prevailed in all the provinces of Iran.  ...
Hindustan Times Original article ›
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The full text of the letter is given here. In this letter the U.S. sets out some important facts about events that happened during the coronavirus crisis during the crucial 4 month period from December 2019 to March 2020. Every week lost in this time due to reasons of a lack of transparency, openness meant hundreds of thousands of people more infected and tens of thousands of deaths worldwide. There are questions of transparency, of openness and this raises questions about the manner in which the World Health Assembly operates with hundreds of small countries in Africa and Asia having votes equal to that of the U.S., India, Brazil, Mexico with votes taken of over 200 countries. The entire election process can now be seen as questionable, when over a billion people in one country alone such as India or hundreds of millions in Brazil and Mexico would have to bear the consequences of poor decisions made by small countries that can be swayed in one direction or another based on political bias and other considerations that have nothing to do with global health.  At the conclusion of the letter by the U.S. to the current WHO shaped by a controversial election in 2017 the following is stated about the standards set by Gro Harlem Brundtland and which helped the world prevent the SARS crisis which originated in China in 2003 from spreading to the large countries of the world India, Brazil, Mexico, and other such countries in Asia and Africa, Latin America, and the U.S. European Union. "In 2003, in response to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China, Director-General Harlem Brundtland boldly declared the World Health Organization’s first emergency travel advisory in 55 years, recommending against travel to and from the disease epicenter in southern China. She also did not hesitate to criticize China for endangering global health by attempting to cover up the outbreak through its usual playbook of arresting whistleblowers and censoring media. Many lives could have been saved had you followed Dr. Brundtland’s example." Even this does not come to grips with the flawed way in which the election of WHO head is done. It can no longer be relied on when there is the danger that lack of transparency can emerge in the WHO leadership itself because of a flawed process. It risks endangering the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions in countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, as well as in the relatively small countries of Africa and Latin America where even basic water supplies are at risk but which could tilt elections at the World Health Assembly. Consider that a cyclone just hit the Indian state of West Bengal and Bangladesh on May 20 just as the coronavirus pandemic is spreading. That this region of 1.5 billion people had just 2 votes out of over 200 cast at the World Health Assembly in 2017 shocking. And even these votes cast based on old geopolitical considerations not how good the candidate is, and how good the country he is coming from is in terms of its record  on public health. The irony here is that private foundations in the advanced countries in the U.S. and Europe some of whom are major donors to WHO did not think that more experienced candidates in their own countries with a better record of public health such as in France or Germany are better qualified, in a flawed NGO support mentality left from the Clinton years. Basically the people in these large countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico were disenfranchised, when the austerity policies were consuming the European Union, and the U.S. had just elected a new administration itself groping for ways to reverse years of neglect of public services and infrastructure priorities. They would trust good leaders no matter where they come from, who have a record of transparency, leadership, and all the values we cherish together no matter where we come from. ...
The New York Times Original article ›
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Strong criticism from Attorney General Luisa Ortega, and dissension inside the government, led to the Supreme Court retracting parts of its decision to nullify the powers of the legislature. Ortega called the move "a rupture of the constitutional order." Most of the judges are appointed on the court by the Maduro government. Strong criticism by the OAS calling it a "self inflicted coup", by other governments in Latin America, also led to retracting parts of the decision by the Supreme Court. Nicholas Maduro succeeded Mr. Chavez who was the democratically elected president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. Maduro narrowly won the election in 2013 by a margin of about 1.5% over Henrique Capriles. In 2015 in National Assembly elections the opposition parties won a majority in the National Assembly. Protests against the Maduro government were followed by a recall attempt in 2016 which was suppressed. Inflation and economic conditions in Venezuela worsened under Maduro with the collapse of oil prices. The devaluation of the currency, high inflation and shortages of basic goods have led to widespread protests. As the situation worsened the Supreme Court in support of the government gradually chipped away at the powers of the National Assembly since 2016, leading to the situation in April 2016 with  the effort to strip the Assembly of all powers and remove the immunity from prosecution of legislators. Maduro is a former bus driver for the city of Caracas bus system, and a trade unionist. He was part of the movement supporting Chavez release after a coup attempt, foreign minister 2006-2013, and appointed Chavez successor in 2012.  Max Fisher and Amanda Taub of the NYT go on to discuss the writings of political scientists, including Dutch expert Cas Mudde, who pointed out that populism often starts its climb because established institutions and elites have become unresponsive to pubic needs. Yet the replacement is with what starts out as an effort to bring fairness- yet ends up creating another elite, suppressing opposition, and creating a new set of problems, even threatening the institutional framework of democracy such as elected assembly as happened last week in Venezuela.  In Venezuela the Chavez populist movement was initially intended to reduce corruption in the court system, the established parties control over media, and ensure oil revenues were used to provide services to poor regions and neighborhoods.  In the process over two decades it introduced a system that set up a Bolivarist class of its own based on socialist goals, failed to integrate the economy into the global economy for modernization, and created an overdependence on oil revenues that hurt the country when prices dropped sharply. High inflation, corruption, shortages of basic goods, and an economy slipping behind neighboring countries in Latin America, are the result by 2017. Seeing the situation in Venezuela in the context of current populist trends in the U.S. and Europe may be a stretch because the situation in Venezuela is unique to Latin America in some ways and is from an earlier period. High inflation, collapsing economy, debt problems and mismanagement of the economy, devaluation of currency, are problems faced by Brazil, Argentina, and other countries in Latin America, happening under conservative as well as populist governments since the 1960's. It is different in two respects, the disconnect with the global economy that prevents modernization, and the trend towards authoritarianism, as seen in Venezuela.     ...
WSJ Original article ›
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The 3000 delegates at the annual China party Congress and premier Li Keqiang showed support for President Jinping as the Congress makes changes to the constitution. The constitution was amended to include a reference to Mr. Xi's political theory, that the Communist Party would lead the country as it implements socialism with Chinese characteristics, creating a new anti-corruption commission that has party oversight of all public servants. As Mr. Jinping, 64 years,  begins his second five year term, to ensure continuity and stability the clause in the constitution that limits a president to 2 five year terms was removed. Wang Chen is the Congress vice chairman and he led the anti-corruption campaign in China that firmed up popular support for Jinping in China. Wang Chen explained that the term limit changes were designed to bring presidential tenures more in line with Mr. Xi's other positions as Party chief and military commission chairman, positions with more power and no formal term limits.  The process is part of government restructuring that puts the Communist Party more in charge of decision-making.   There was some instability under the administration before Jinping and growing corruption had undermined confidence in the Party, just as China's economy was slowing, with a bubble in real estate, high debt to GDP and need to pursue a soft landing for the economy. The present effort say some delegates including the president of Haier Appliance, is an effort that stable economic policies can be pursued to ensure China's future as its society ages, and the need to complete modernization in parts of the country that have not seen the gains seen in the coastal regions. And that corruption does not undermine the party's credibility to lead this change. The huge economic problems China faces, bigger now from a public interest perspective of pensions, social security in the Chinese context for an aging society, bringing the rapid development of the coastal regions to the interior of the country, housing, the high debt to GDP ratio, and need to ensure good economic growth to provide a stable economic foundation, may have led to a sense that a stable political foundation was needed to ensure this takes place. Political stability was affected during the previous Hu Jintao administration with the Bo Xilai episode when the party unity was affected as "some  party cadres and leaders were giddy and feverish on the waves of the market economy" as Jinping put it at Central Party School in 2013. Mr. Jinping grew up amid such tensions as his father a senior party leader went out of favor first with Mao and then with Deng after the Tiananmen protests. This instability in the country that affected economic progress is part of the experience of older Chinese leaders and affected their perception of events from memories of this period. Some of the media coverage on this topic can be misleading, as it is important not to forget that China suffered for 2 centuries in the nineteenth and the twentieth century -with British invasion in the nineteenth century and Japanese invasion in the twenty first century followed by the chaos of the Cultural Revolution before finally finding a way out of poverty and backwardness in the final decade of the twentieth century and the first two decades of the twenty first century.  ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Newspapers slant is influenced as much by reader preferences and bias as by the political identity of the newspaper. This is one of the research findings in a 2010 paper by Gentzkow and Shapiro. Gentzkow, a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, was given the 2014 John Bates Clark Medal by the American Economic Association.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Supreme Court Justice, Elena Kagan, after her first year at the U.S. Supreme Court. Kagan was appointed by President Obama in 2010. Kagan talked about her experience at the Supreme Court at an Aspen Institute event. Kagan replaced Justice John Paul Stevens. Stevens says Kagan has voted very similiar to how he would have voted on most of the cases. And Justice Ginsberg says about Kagan: "she has already shown her talent as an incisive questioner at oral argument and a writer of eminently readable opinions." Kagan takes writing opinions for the Court very seriously. She described her style at the Aspen Institute event as figuring out how to communicate difficult ideas to people who know little about the subject. An additional aspect of Kagan's writing is that she strives to put things using vivid and colorful language that sticks with people. She has used expressions such as "loosey-goosey," for instance. In her dissent on the campaign finance case she described the supposedly smoking gun found by her colleagues, as: "the only smoking gun here is the majority's, and it is the kind that goes with mirrors." The media tends to compare Roberts with Kagan, the two youngest chief justices on the court, both articulate and vigorous in their opinions, with similiar intellectual backgrounds but taking different positions. Kagan says the most valuable experience to prepare for her new position, was the year she spent as Solicitor General, where she was trying to persuade nine chief justices of the court why they should take a particular position. The difference now being that she must persuade eight justices. The most striking aspect of the two appointments by George W. Bush and Obama, with the absence of a retirement age for the U.S. Supreme Court- as in other democracies such as India- is that both Roberts and Kagan may well be on the Court for 25 years or longer. ...
Washington Post Original article ›
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Andrew Higgins tells the story of the China Power Investment Corporation's hydro electricity generation project on Burma's Irrawady river. The project is located in the northern part of Burma, in Myitsone, Kachin state. This was to be the first of seven hydroelectric dams on the Irrawady river. Initial opposition to the project by local people turned into a national opposition movement against the projects as it became clear that the huge project which would generate as much electricity as the Three Gorges dam in China, or seven times the Hoover dam in the U.S., would for the most part benefit China. Burma's economy was too small after decades of neglect to need this much electricity. The fears of ecological damage, uprooting the people living in the area, took on a new dimension as national opposition coalesced around the issue of Burmese sovereignty. The former general, President Thein Sein, who assumed the position in March 2011, had second thoughts. One former military officer, leading one of the opposition groups, expressed fears that Burma would become a colony that helped China meet its energy needs under the arrangement with China Power Investment Corporation. China was already working with regimes in Sudan and Angola to meet its energy needs. In September 2011, President Thein Sein halted work on the project. This happens just as the country's military is relaxing its hold on the media and allowing opposition leaders to express their views. The two developments may be connected as the military sees the need for getting public support to counter China's pressure to go along with the project. Years of external pressure failed to create an opening for democracy in Burma. This event appears to create the atmosphere for a genuine expression of Burmese feeling and desire for protecting its sovereignty, which would help it join the world community, with the military finding a common ground with public sentiment....
BusinessWeek Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Coy says that as long as unemployment numbers keep going up and foreclosures keep increasing as aresult of the job losses housing prices will keep falling. He says that they may have to fall 20% more than the level they are at today. And that the foreclosure levels could become atidal wave if it becomes easier for alot of people to just hand their keys to the banks. This was what Martin Feldstein warned aginst in the WSJ oped pages several times in 2008. As more people are under water it makes sense to just hand the keys to the banks, and as long as this goes on, the economic recovery will be put off. A study cited by Coy done by Reinhart and Rogoff shows that housing crisis of this magnitude last about 6 years before all the bad effects wear off. And in addition to housing there are other things at work in this crisis especially in the job loss rate which is increasing (663,000 jobs lost in March), and the readjustment in savings rate upto 6.4% according to BW for 2009 till March, which suggests a serious drop in the consumption rate is underway and may go on for several years crimping demand and increasing unused manufacturing capacity. The stories in the media and other information reinforce this statistical information. The bit of good new from hard hit housing markets in California and Nevada and other staes has to be seen as no more than a limited play in the foreclosure markets, that does little to the broad brush strokes that are ocurring on the national and world landscapes in job losses and consumption. Coy a veteran analyst who has covered the housing market and warned during the boom of the likelihood of abust in a cover issue at the time, brings experience and reflection to the developments, and urges serious caution in interpreting signals that may have no broad meaning....
DW.COM Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Analysis of 126 public pension plans by the National Association of State Retirement Administrators shows an average target rate of 7.68%. New York State Common Retirement Fund, third largest by assets, says it plans to drop the assumed rate of return to 7% from 7.5%. A drop of 1% boosts pension liabilities by about 12%, accoridng to the Centre for Retirement Research at Boston College. It means workers are required to contribute more to the pension funds for the same level of benefits, especially as lifespans grow and more Americans retire in an aging population. Other options are for states to cut payrolls and expenses. This is a positive step as it makes the assumptions realistic and improves the fiscal stability of the funds. The largest pension fund, California Public Employees Retirement System is considering dropping its assumption to below the current level of 7.5%. The lower assumed rates of return are not enough say critics, who cite the 3- 3.5% returns assumed in the 1960's for cash and bond based portfolios. The Laura and Arnold Foundation's Josh McGee says it is still not realistic. Retirement systems median actual return was 3.4% for 12 months ending June 30, 2015. Expert panel of actuaries and pension specialists says the right level for assumed returns is about 6.4%. Companies in the Fortune 1000 have already dropped the figure to 7.1%, from 9.2% in 2000, according to Towers Watson survey....

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