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Alan Meltzer would like to see the Fed reverse its quantitative easing, and lower excess reserves gradually starting now. By this he hopes to see the Fed avoid the mistake of making a big shift from excessive ease to severe contraction further down the road. He also warns agains excessive deficit spending. He says a weak economy is not the time to cut spending or raise taxes, and he is not talking of draconian immediate steps. He would like to see a multiyear program to increase fiscal probity and reduce deficits size and frequency. As it stands now he takes both parties to task for lack of fiscal discipline and honest accounting. About $1 trillion in deficits each year on average for next 10 years is in the works, and is an underestimate because the savings of $200-$300 billion in medicare spending have still to be realized, and states do not have funds for increased Medicaid spending, and payments to doctors have still to go down by 25%. Chinese government purchases of half our debt will postpone the day of reckoning says Meltzer, but far better for us to strike at the problem now, before we blow a hole in the dollar and start a downturn. See the separate report on the shrinking UK economy....

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

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U.S. president Trump set up a separate task force called the Great American Revival Industry Groups. He read each of the names out loud during his press conference on Monday, a list of about 200 industry leaders from all the main industry groups, many of whom he personally knows. The first meeting of this group met in a hour long call with about 35 participants.  Most of the leaders praised the strong action taken by the president. On the task of reopening the economy the participants told president Trump that current testing levels were inadequate for effectively reopening the economy.  This is the first of four calls the president plans to make and included leaders from banking, retail, hospitality,  and food industries. The tasks facing the task force are to provide advice on how to reopen the economy and how to respond to the economic damage.  The U.S. president decided to set up this task force after talking to his friends in the business world so that he could get the broadest possible range of advice and thinking. Dr. Fauci, the leading helth expert on the president's team along with Dr. Birx, said on April 14 that reopening would require testing and virus tracking that was efficient and reliable and that the U.S. was not there yet. U.S. has conducted about 3 million tests. Health experts say there should be millions of tests per day before people can return to work. ...

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Japan's acute shortage of labor has even spread to the government sector says this report in DW.com. Japan's aging population means a growing need for immigrants from Vietnam and other countries. Nursing, elderly care had shortages which have spread to construction and delivery business, taxis, forestry companies and train operators. Many jobs remain unfilled. It is a situation the US may also experience in a few years as it is feeling the effects of shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality. NK Logisitics Research estimate is that 34% of goods will remain undelivered by 2030 because of lack of transport workers, that is 940 million tons of goods undelivered every year. Already taxi drivers have shrunk by 40% from the peak in 2009. Japan's immigration policy planned for an influx of 345,000 skilled workers over 5 years in 2019 but this came a bit late as the pandemic delayed the influx. Now it has a new urgency. Even with the influx of new immigrants Germany has 1.6 million jobs unfilled according to DW.com citing research in an accompanying article on German workers in today's Lyrarc.com. The US needs an organized program of immigration to attract foreign workers yet the influx from Venezuela of mostly middle class educated people into the US through  events no one had foreseen or expected may years from now be seen as meeting the needs of sectors in the American economy that needs good workers, in the same way that Japan and Germany see their economies and worker shortages. ...

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People and parties of Kashmir on the attack on tourists at Pahalgam, Kashmir on April 22, 2025. The economy of Kashmir after the pandemic was recovering with a surge in tourism, new investment in agriculture, and the region benefitting from investments for Vikshit Bharat 2047.  Most of the Kashmir region remain closed in memory of tourists killed in the attack.  Kashmir region has a long history that has been lost in the coverage since 1947 as the colonial rule ended in the region with intermittent peace and conflict. For 7 centuries there was Hinduism from the Vedic period, Buddhism, followed by 7 centuries of Shiva religion till the 15th century when Islam entered the region for 3 centuries till the Sikhs and Sikhism a religion around deity Ram around 1819 and the British after 1850. The British set up a protectorate in Kashmir under the British Empire ruled by a Sikh king from 1850 to 1948. What this says is that after a unsettled period till 1948 to 2020, the region is likely to return to its history of tolerance for different people from South Asia, with one huge difference, the rapid modernization of the region in the 21st century replacing the feudal poverty and backwardness of a overtaxed and underdeveloped farmers communities. ...

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In a policy unchanged since 1950's women in China retire at age 50 and men at age 60 years. China is aging faster than the US and it's population that is over 60 years is 20% of the population. Over the 5 years to 2025 about 40 million people will retire, about the size of the population of Canada. There will be 36 million fewer people in the working age population ages 16-59 to support them. Chinese migrant workers and families work longer hours than white collar workers making it difficult to raise the retirement age to European levels in a short time. The government's approach is to get public support by creating awareness about the problem and change the retirement age gradually over a longer period. The first step will be bringing the retirement age of women to the level of men. The 10 year gap in retirement age of men and women is not found in any advanced economy.

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Photos of industrial decline in the US with text by Helen Epstein, professor of human rights and public health in The Guardian. This was a period in the early 1980s when America's major industries in steel and other parts of the economy went into decline. Cities and towns across this vast land were left to decline with loss of jobs and with it decline in quality of life, decline in health, education, says Prof. Epstein, as the Democratic Party jettisoned its foundational principles. The term "Reagan Democrats" emerged in the late years of the Carter administration, and again after Clinton, Obama took the shape of the Trump vote. By 2021 the situation has reversed with the Democratic Biden administration putting forward a program for revival with his $1.8 trillion Families Plan for infrastructure and for the benefit of America's workers, students and families. What was a protest vote during 2016 is now taking new shape in the form of this plan for the renewal of America. ...

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The CDU has the nost popularity at 34% yet Merz himself. a private equity executive with Black Rock Germany, is not personally popular with the German public. His popularity is at about 25%. Boris Pistorius, the Defene Minister in the Scholz SPD and Greens government is the most popular politician in Germany today. Elections are only 4 months away in February 2025, a short time but also a long time with all the changes going on today. In the past CDU and SPD have worked together. Past CDU approaches may not work as Germany badly needs to invest in its economy as the US has done under president Biden. The experience of Britain shows that simply making deals and counting on free trade deals doesn't work, and cuts to public services to budgets including on basic services including water and transportation, climate, do not work either. Are their good leaders and policies that fit the times is a question that will be persistent for many nations.

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Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

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Patrick Barta's exceptional reporing on Manek Chowk, a busy industrial and commercial centre of Ahmedabad. Manek Chowk, the public market in Ahmedabad, India, where street vendors find jobs in the informal economy. The informal economy provides most of the jobs in countries like India and Brazil. They could be street vendors, rickshaw drivers, workers doing textile stitching work and being paid by the piece, and so on. Ahmedabad has 55,000 richshaw drivers, 70,000 street vendors, 70,000 construction workers, and 45,000 rovish trash collectors and recyclers. Most of the city's once prominent textile mills have vanished or are rotting. If Ahmedabad makes it through this difficult period with job losses in India, its because of a thriving local informal economy. It may not provide what a regular job provides, but it helps people feed their families and they are happy to make it through the tough times. And even in the better times the jobs just do not exist in the proportion necessary in countries like India and Brazil. Consider this. Between 2000 and 2005, the number of formal jobs in India stayed flat at about 35 million, while informal jobs grew 17% to 423 million, according to the Indian government. These are the most recent years for which information is available. Economists say the creation of formal jobs may have picked up after 2005, but not by much. The situation is like this all over much of Africa, Asia and Latin America. And as companies layoff formal workers in favor of cheaper employees part-time and without benefits, the importance of the informal economy grows. In Ahmedabad the rights of these people are protected in the case of women by the Self Employed Women's Association of India, which numbers 1 million people across India....

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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Pocketbook issues are taking increasing importance in the French election on April 24. Greg Ip of the WSJ says inflation has risen in importance more than immigration, the war in Ukraine, and other issues related to Islamist separatism. About 45% cited purchasing power as the main issue in a BVA poll, and this is even higher for people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon who came within 1% percentage point of Ms. Le Pen in the first round. Greg Ip says that in economic issues France has done better than Germany, Italy or the UK. Unemployment is at 7.4% the lowest since 2008. Economic output has risen more than in Germany, Italy or the the UK since Mr. Macron took office. And one study shows disposable income has risen higher under Macron than under predecessors Hollande and Sarkozy. France also spent heavily to tackle the Covid pandemic's effect on workers and companies. Ip says Macron's efforts to liberalize labor markets, simplify taxes and wage bargaining and make training programs more effective could be the reason. Youth unemployment is the lowest in nearly 40 years, and the number of apprenticeships doubled from 2019 to 2021, according to BNP Paribas. Pisani-Ferry, economist at Sciences Po says compared to past performance the French economy did much better. Le Pen has promised to cut the value added tax to tackle inflation's effect on voters. Macron has said he will be flexible when it comes to raising the age for retirement and pensions and calls Le Pen's lowering the retirement age creating problems for the solvency of the pension system and highly unrealistic.   ...

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Krugman says in NYT that inflation is receding and its causes lie mainly in pandemic related supply chain issues not fiscal efforts to fix dilapidated infrastructure, invest in fighting climate change, or help for needy workers and families.  He looks at Fed chair Jerome Powell’s discussion on inflation and this he says shows that fiscal policy or government spending to fight the pandemic and US needs for infrastructure and science/chips played at most a distinctly secondary role. What Krugman does not say is that this does not mean that inflation is not an issue for many families living from paycheck to paycheck. Harris clearly spelled out a Plan for housing costs and cost of food and this is the kind of effort needed to tackle this issue secondary or not in astatistical sense. Also not given recognition is that the government spending is changing the very nature of the US economy by creating more potential for it to grow till 2030 in a way that would not be possible if this investment by president Biden was not wisely made. One has only to look at Germany to see its crumbling rail system and failing infrastructure to see that what Biden did right and Merkel did wrong. ...

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With the aggressive actions taken along the 1600 kilometre border in eastern Ladakh by China's People's Liberation Army, India needs a younger soldier to protect the border at high altitudes in below freezing temperatures. The entire 3500 kilometre border in the high Himalayan regions from east to west need technology driven surveillance with soldiers fit and ready for such duty. Agnipath's goal is to bring down the average age in the army from 32 years to 26 years to better reflect the youthful population in India. A tighter better disciplined force with high tech is needed. Bringing in more and new recruits is intended. Both the 25% of recruits retained after 4 years benefit and the 75% benefit. The 25% will have opportunities to move up the ranks. The 75% who come back out of the military will have the advanced technical training and courses, certification, that would make them attractive to the public and private sector companies in 2026 and beyond when India's economy will be 50% larger than today at growth rates of 10-12%. This is already seen in the way technologically trained military recruits from World War II in the US Army, Navy and Air Force were quickly absorbed at high salaries in the high growth period of America 1950-1970, with incentives like the GI Bill. Modifications that could be discussed- The 25% retained after 4 years. There is no magic number it could be raised to 30 or 40% during these post pandemic years and then lowered to 25% as the economy grows rapidly by 2025, or kept at 30% without changes, a number of options could be open.The financial aspect of the training can be modified where the 25% retained could have these 4 years added to their years for calculating pensions. The 75% are given 1.2 million rupees and even this can be adjusted upwards so that they could start businesses as entrepreneurs or have the time to pursue higher education before taking up for example with free education to enhance their education in areas of interest as was given by the GI bill to Americans in the armed services after World War II in 1946. Ideas from the GI Bill signed by president Franklin Roosvelt in 1944- Adding one year of unemployment payments, low interest loans to start a farm or business, full tution and living expenses for college. In 2008 the Veterans Act in the US continued support for education of servicement by making eduction free at a public college or university.  The Roosevelt GI bill benefited about 7.8 million servicemen in the US armed services. 2.2 million went to college, 7.6 million took training programs. It was an impressive achievement. No scheme is perfect there are budgetary constraints such as how to manage pensions to give the armed services the best possible funding including the training and course capabilities that also need good financing and the higher pensions for armed services. Every political party  government around the world without exception will have to face these budgetary constraints and the goal is to do right by the armed services providing the income and opportunities they deserve. Was a decent effort made with the right goals set? This is how these matters of national interest for India and the Free World that includes South East Asia, Africa and Latin America, should be discussed.    ...

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US secretary of state Anthony Blinken meets Indian foreign minister Jaishankar, and prime minister Modi in New Delhi. India and the US are working together on how to make vaccine supplies accessible and affordable in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. To promote the vaccination drive in India the US announced an additional $25 million to the $200 million announced earlier, during Anthony Blinken's visit to New Delhi. Post pandemic economic recovery was also a subject of discussions. Blinken thanked Jaishankar for collaborative discussion on many points, including security in the Indo-Pacific region. He went on to say that "the US welcomes India's emergence as a leading global power." Blinken also said that the future in the 21st century will be written in the Indo-Pacific region.  Blinken thanked Jaishankar for the collaborative discussions on many topics, including trade and economy, and how to promote greater bilateral investments to deepen commercial ties. ...

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This analysis in The Guardian says US president Biden is reversing 3 decades of policy since president Reagan that looked with skepticism at government intervention in the economy. The $1.9 trillion aid package Biden has pushed through Congress is a big game changer in the way government operates to help rebuild America after the pandemic. The 2009 response by the government under president Obama was done without conviction that the government response was the best way to help the economy. By 2016 voters turned to a Republican, Mr. Trump, to help working class voters with a USA first policy, after decades of presidents from both parties Republican and Democrat failed to protect American interests in manufacturing, jobs and incomes.  US president Biden is continuing Trump's policies to protect working class Americans. And bringing new conviction that government not only has a positive role, but has an essential and vital role to play in protecting workers and households struggling to make ends meet. President Reagan had introduced such a deep skepticism of government, that it took so long for people to remember FDR and the role of government before the second world war and afterwards under the Truman administration.  What changed? The health care crisis exposed the weak areas in the governance and policy mindset in America. China had advanced mainly through strong government role of the Communist Party  in steering the economy and business to gain competitive advantage. The health crisis from the pandemic further devastated America's lower middle and working class following the banking and financial sector mismanagement by 2009. The pharmaceutical and health care sector similar to other sectors had shipped manufacturing overseas. In 2021 there is a deep sense that theories don't work, one has to act based on the needs and the situation the country is facing. The way competitor nations such as China are building new infrastructure, gaining manufacturing advantage, dominating key sectors and industries, and creating jobs, requires America to respond. In this situation posing the threat America faces as well as the social dislocation of decades of misguided policies, the US government is the only one capable and having the resources and capacity to respond.  ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008....

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Northwestern University's Robert Gordon sees growth in the US economy dropping from 1.93 %- that it achieved in the period 1972-2007- to 1.5% from 2007 to 2027. At that rate of growth GDP per capita would increase by 35% in the next twenty years, compared to the 62% increase in the previous period. He says better educated workers would be needed to increase the growth rate. And he discounts the impact of the internet revolution as it has no magic quality, and he describes the present transformation technologically as a mere shift to smaller devices that is not changing productivity. He does not see another technological revolution like the internet boom. The coming retirement of baby boomers increases the number of retired people that wage earners would have to support, and there is no evidence of education levels increasing for the remaining workers. What this means is that it will be more difficult to fix large problems from carbon emission, energy to infrastructure improvement. Gordon arrived at these numbers by combining research on educational attainment, technological change, and workforce demographics for the USA, and running this data through models. Gordon has examined data going back to 1891 for the USA. This shows that the next twenty years will be the slowest growth in the nation's history, since George Washington assumed the Presidency....

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Orlik cites a 2011 survey from China's South Western University of Finance and Economics, which surveyed 8000 households and found that 55% of Chinese households had little or no savings for that year. 10% of households control 86% of wealth and 56% of household income. Surveys in 1995 and 2002 showed 10% of households controlled 31% and 41% of wealth. In the U.S. top 10% of households control 74% of the wealth, according to the Federal Reserve figures. What this means, says Orlik, is that before China can shift to consumption based growth the low incomes of the majority of households have to go up, requiring a major policy shift. Under current policies and even with movement in the direction of the DRC/World Bank policy report for China for a gradual shift away from state owned enterprises, there is little prospect for rebalancing the world economy.

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On the first day of the new vaccine policy on June 21, 2021, India has vaccinated 6.9 million people. India has now vaccinated 287 million people out of a population of 1.2 billion. This is a race against time as new variants caused the second wave of coronavirus in April and May of 2021 with cases peaking at over 300,000 a day.  The shortcoming of the old vaccine policy are being corrected. The entire vaccine supply process and the vaccination drive is now being handled by the federal government. Earlier during the second wave vaccine supply and the vaccination drives were under an arrangement with no clear overall responsibility. States shared responsibility with the federal government and target vaccination goals were missed, vaccine supplies were inadequate.  A similar arrangement in Germany failed and Germany's vaccination supplies were inadequate and vaccination drive stalled. This caused immense frustration in Germany in April-May 2021. Germany's troubled history before World War II led to a reliance on decentralized actions, and state governments imposed different rules in a relatively small country compared to India. This was corrected with the federal government taking on the entire responsibility for the vaccine supply and vaccination drive leading to good results today in vaccines. With India's huge population and political process of different state governments, some lacking experience in administration for a complex process, and others failing to coordinate well with the federal government, the lack of overall responsibility at the federal government posed serious risks of missing targets for vaccines and letting the coronavirus wreck the economy and public confidence. Complex negotiations with other governments in Europe and the US for vaccine manufacture in India could only be handled at the federal level. The resources and planning at the federal level were already in place in India for infrastructure and other projects, experience and setting targets in that area at the federal level could now be transferred to this task in vaccines. Somewhere in the range of 8 million vaccines a day need to be reached and sustained from August to December 2021 for India to reach the goal of vaccinated all 1.2 billion people ahead of any further attack from a third or fourth wave, say experts. This is not a choice for the federal government, it is simply something India has got to accomplish to be a healthy nation that can grow with neighbors in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan and build confidence in its Asia-Pacific region. The entire Asia-Pacific region has a lot resting on how well India achieve this goal and moves on to the next phase of assisting its neighbors in the region.  ...

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French 2025 Bayrou budget compromise deficit of 5.4% target is a fragile one. Le Monde says PM Bayrou is dependent on the goodwill of his opponents the RN National Rally and the Partie Socialiste PS. Cutting the budget slightly is not popular with RN or PS and it remains a compromise to avoid the worst of not passing the budget for 2025, a responsibility the public places on all politicians and parties. As in Germany France with fragile coalitions and lack of clear voter support for one program, is not able to invest in its economy as Biden and Trump have done in the US, slowing growth in the European Union.

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The Waldorf was built in 1931 by Hilton Hotels founder Conrad Hilton. After a century of use it was outdated and needed major repairs. In 2014 Hilton decided to sell it and hired Blackstone advisors who said it would get about $1 billion. China had just allowed Chinese to buy foreign assets in 2014, and a Chinese founder of a regional insurance company Anbang Group offered $1.9 billion when Hilton knowing that China was keen in acquiring foreign assets priced it at $2 billion. In 2017 only three years later China decided to pull back from allowing private investments of this kind, Anbang's Wu was arrested for business practices. 2017 was the time when Xi at the 19th  Communist CCP Party Congress put forward his ideas for "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" and made it part of China's Constitution, and launched anti-corruption drive against corrupt business practices. The Waldorf was taken over in this drive by Chinese government. For 10 years China held onto the property and built 375 900 square feet condos in the Waldorf for $6 billion and 375 hotel rooms by the time it reopened in 2025. Was it worth it? Even if China could get $3.2 million for each of 375  900 square foot condos this would generate $1.1 billion. It would take 8 years to generate the remaining $900 million of the $2 billion paid for the Waldorf by Anbang's founder Wu if the Waldorf's 375 rooms were rented out for $1000 a night for 300 days. China would still be at a loss for $6 billion. This type of extravagant business investments characterized Japan in the 1980's and 1990's leading to the gradual stagnation in Japan's economy as other countries caught up in quality control and other production efficiency practices using new IT technologies. China looks to be following the Japanese example with infrastructure overbuilding. The US and EU will catch up in the next wave of investment in America and Europe by 2030 and other Asian economies such as India will also catch up with China. Investment productivity will play a part, new technologies will play a part, and a return of manufacturing to the US and EU, a build of India's manufacturing and logistics will play a part. ...

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The US and Japan are coordinating efforts to limit transfer of sensitive technology to China and increase trade and cooperation within the G-7 in high technology sectors. Efforts are being coordinated with South Korea. Janet Yellen says the IMF has overblown the effects on the world economy from the US decoupling from China. IMF reports have also in addition presented India incorrectly as a non aligned country, when it is a close partner of the US. In 2023 US is the largest trade partner of India.The US position is to limit flows of technology in sectors considered vital, and continue world trade in other areas with China. US is committed to friendshoring to India, Vietnam and other countries. Germany's three parties CDU, Greens and SPD are reversing close trade and technology links with China. This is also the policy of the Modi administration which seeks close trade and technology ties to US and EU. The shift is in response to what is really an overconcentration of the supply chain in China that happened as business in the US and EU and the Merkel and the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations failed to see the risks of overconcentration. And carried out misguided policies in trade and investment that are now being reversed by US president Biden, Kishida in Japan, and Modi in India. ...

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The $369 billion climate and tax package that is coming out of a deal arranged by Schumer in the US Senate could be a path breaking action. It would enable president Biden to get close to the climate goals he promised last year of cutting US carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 over 2005 levels to combat effects of climate change. The $369 billion package would get the US to reduce carbon emissions by 40% in 2030 over 2005 levels.  Severe effects of climate change with fires and floods in the US, Europe, and Asia have brought a new spotlight to the issues facing the world and the fact that something needs to be done quickly with the US leading the way. Senator Manchin a holdout because he comes from a coal mining state was a holdout. He was persuaded to join as the new legislation provides for support for transmission lines and other investment during a transition period so that it does not affect the economy in his state. The transition period is now accepted as Europe now looks at gas and coal as a temporary resource following the cutoff of Russian supplies and the US will be shipping more LNG to Europe during this period. The vote for this legislation is planned under reconciliation so that the vice president MS. Harris can cast the deciding vote for Democrats in a 50-50 split Senate. Republicans oppose the legislation. Manchin now says it will reduce inflation. Briefly it will give $7500 to every buyer of an electric vehicle EV, and $4000 for a used EV. It would give rebates for heat pumps that increase home energy efficiency. Billions of dollars would be spent for clean energy industries, and for solar, wind, geothermal, other renewable energy projects. Democrats want to get the legislation through the Senate quickly by next week, and so secret were Schumer's negotiations that most Democrats did not know about it. Coming on the heels of the $280 billion CHIPS and Science bill for $280 billion investment in US semiconductor industry, this will be a big win for president Biden and shows the persistence and patience of Mr. Biden is paying off.   ...

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From 2007 to 2022 Alberta contributed $180 billion more to federal government than it received. Alberta holds the fourth largest oil reserves in the world and contributes as much to the Canadian economy as the financial and manufacturing industries of Ontario. Because of the Liberals running federal policy away from fossil fuels no pipelines are being built for Albertan oil and Alberta is not getting the support it needs. Public opinion in Alberta is for joining the US (20%) or forming its own separate state (30%) because of a decade of Trudeau's Liberal policies. New PM Mark Carney is trying to move away from Liberal policies and find ways to meet the concerns of Albertans.