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The Indian Finance Minister Mukherjee presented his new budget and talked about the new administration's plans for investment and its priorities. The Rural Employment program which guarantees 100 days of work to each indigent family will get an increase in funding to $8.1 billion or 391 billion rupees for this fiscal year. THe goal was set for cutting in half the percentage of the people in India that are poor in five years, which the government measures by calories consumed. The Indian government estimates that 27.5% of Indians were poor in 2005 using this measure. To finance investment government spending will increase 36% and the deficit for the 2009-10 fiscal year will reach an estimated 6.8% of GDP, up from an estimated 6.2% in 2008. Abig part of this spending will be increases in infrastructure spending which will go up from 6% to 9% of GDP by 2014.

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As the coronavirus surges in India with over 300,000 cases a day on April 26, a clear picture on the vaccination drive in the country is critical. The following is the picture of the vaccination progress from Union Health Ministry in India as shown in The Hindustan Times. India has vaccinated 140 million people with at least one dose says this report in The Hindustan Times.  On Saturday 24th April 2.4 million doses were given for that day at 8 pm. This was done over 99 days. This means about 12% of the population of 1.2 billion has been vaccinated.  This compares with the vaccination in Germany for about 21% of people vaccinated with over 18 million getting the first dose in Germany by around April 25. Both Germany and India have suffered from vaccine shortages, some skepticism about vaccinations. Gradually sentiment is shifting in both countries so that once skeptical Germany now has about 75% of people willing to take vaccine on April 25, 2021. In India about 6 million healthcare workers have 2 doses of vaccine, and about 9 million have 1 dose. About 6 million frontline workers have 2 doses and 12 million frontline workers have 1 dose of vaccine.  There is a shortage of vaccine supplies and a bold decision was made by the Indian government on April 25th 2021, after the surge of cases to a world wide maximum of over 300,000 cases a day. The decision was to give immediate regulatory approval for the three major vaccines in the US to be brought and used in India. And delivery will be speeded up - no customs duties and fast processing of supplies access to speedy logistical supply routes. This is a huge step forward for the vaccination drive as this means Pfizer, Moderna and J&J vaccines can now be used in India. The government is also urging the companies to make in India or export to India with prices that provide flexibility in pricing for the private market. The locally produced Covishield Astra Zeneca based vaccine produced by Serum Institute will be allowed to be sold to the private market at 600 rupees or close to about $10. Pfizer and Moderna, J&J can price in a way that would be somewhere around this price range. The access to more vaccines and the ability of the companies to make a reasonable profit in the Indian private market means that vaccine supplies should open up in May and June.  This could give a huge boost to vaccination numbers so that India's vaccination percentage of population vaccinated should keep up with that in countries like Germany and France that were slower to get started in Europe but are now catching up quickly. This is a massive achievement because the population numbers are huge compared to Europe. ...

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The benchmark price of U.S. crude oil dropped to $31.41 a barrel on January 11, 2016, as oil prices continued to drop sharply following a slowdown in China, appreciation in the U.S. dollar and no cuts in production from Saudi Arabia. Analysts expect a crisis for energy producers that is deeper than ones in 1986, and five plunges in oil price all the way back to 1970. With the oil prices at $30 and expected to drop below $30, the companies that took on a lot of debt have no choice but to keep up production. In the process many may find themselves in bankruptcy. Private equity with capital of $100 billion is likely to come in at this point to buy cheap assets without the debt, say analysts. U.S. banks energy portfolios are small, with Wells Fargo energy exposure only 2% for oil and gas loans in the third quarter of 2015, or about $17 billion. Loans that are rated "sub-standard. doubtful or loss," are projected at 15% of loans to energy producers, about $34.2 billion, in a biannaual review by banking regulators. The unusual aspect of this energy price slump is that production is not declining with falling prices- oil production in the U.S. was estimated by the government at 9.2 million barrels a day in Jan 2016- 1% higher than at the beginning of 2015 when prices were over $40 a barrel....

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Hardeep Puri writes in the Indian Express that one of the biggest problems in development in India was that government programs for development just kept getting delayed, and there were leakages of funds that could never be tracked. It is the sign of a developing country that it remain perpetually a developing country when it does not find a way to overcome this situation. Most of Asia, Japan, South Korea, China has found a way out, and it is a sign of character in a country and its administration that real implementation takes place to transform a developing country into a modern country organizing and combining the inputs of land, capital, technology and human resources. Just one example is the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana to build housing in India's cities to promote quality of living. In the last 7 years Puri writes in the Indian Express that 11.2 million houses were sanctioned, 4.9 million built and the rest to be built by March 2022. Compared to 1.2 million in the prior 10 years. To do this investment jumped by about 10 times. In the US infrastructure was neglected in the last 2 decades. In India urban infrastructure was delayed by never ending delays and leakages of funds. Across a range of projects from Metro urban transport to rail, bridges and road, infrastructure was slow and wobbly in India for most of the decades since 1947. The Smart Cities Mission is being financed with an investment planned of Rupees 2 trillion or over $200 billion to change the urban landscape with people centred priorities. As Puri writes silently, non performers are being weeded out, loopholes plugged, targets set, in scrutiny and monitoring of projects all the way to the prime minister in a way that has never happened before. There is relentless focus on monitoring the missions, problems to overcome, targets and dates of completion. Bringing to life a new national character and spirit for India during the pandemic. ...

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DJT 1.0 was led on the tariffs policy by USTR Robert Lighthizer, who had experience negotiating with the Japanese negotiators in the Reagan era. He is today respected by  Republicans, is seen in an important role in economic policy and to prepare the tariff policy actions of the new DJT administration. Lighthizer prefers to get Congress to take action with legislation. He also believes that domestic manufacturing will make gains with new and higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Lighthizer policy is falsely compared with Hoover Tariffs Act of 1930 when world trade was 9% of world GDP, today it is 63% of world GDP, and where under Hoover in 1930 the tariffs were across the board all countries 20,000 goods. Under Lighthizer on specific products where dumping is happening -steel, aluminium, autos, with Japan in 1960-70 or China 2000-2020 targeting American industries + technologies for takeover. And falsely when it comes to raising costs to each American family on average by $4000 a year by economists. The conventional view for business for 2000-2016 through Bush and Obama favoring free trade did not take into account the unusual experience of China which entered WTO in 1990, then expanded in a way unprecedented in history at 10-12% growth rates for 15 years destroying American manufacturing with dumping, having support of outshoring by companies in the US, and not giving reciprocal treatment for exports from the US to China. China also had unrestricted access to US technologies in this type of trade. Lighthizer's approach was to specifically address this problem not a general across the board tariffs on all goods (20,000 goods) on all countries as with the Hoover Tariffs Act in 1930. Lighthizer's approach adopted by DJT called for reciprocal trade response with China as the US had already done with Japan, not unilateral across the board tariffs, and when world trade had advanced to about zero tariff rates. And falsely compared to Hoover 1930 Act because under Hoover tariffs were 29-40%. raised to 60% when world trade was small, was 9% of GDP. The Biden administration has tacitly agreed with Lighthizer's vision by not reversing DJT tariffs. A new higher tariff will probably be selective based on the industry, country and what goals the US has set under the new administration for that industry. Some of the tariffs revenue may also be used for tax cuts. ...

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Neil Irwin in the NYT why the U.S. China Phase 1 Trade Agreement is more than a hill of soyabeans as he puts it, more than about all the soyabeans that the U.S. farmers can sell to China. China's economy was seeing the effect of U.S. tariffs. Additional tariffs to cover all imports from China to the U.S. would have worsened this. China avoided this by agreeing to Phase 1. The U.S. had looked for some enforcement mechanism based on China putting this down in a written agreement particularly for avoiding subsidies to state enterprises and improper access to U.S. advanced technologies. China's reluctance to do this led to Mr. Trump saying that China had reversed its position and Trump expanding the tariffs stage by stage. These issues are now set aside for Phase 2 still to be negotiated. Both sides taking what they could get. China relief from the threat of tariffs on all exports. The U.S. under Mr. Lighthizer's negotiating leadership retaining the enforcement idea through the tariffs that are still in place of 25% on half of China's exports to the U.S. The bonus for Mr. Trump is the goodwill China generates by agreeing to buy all the U.S. farmers can produce, farmers having not only stood behind Mr. Trump but also forming a key part of his support base. China will continue to compete in technological areas with the U.S., and the state enterprise model which worked for China as Mr. Xi tells visitors will continue. Phase 2 is just that Phase 2, when and if it can be negotiated between Trump with his negotiator Lighthizer and Xi with his negotiator Liu He. On key points neither side is budging. A key goal for Mr. Trump is to put the trade surplus China enjoys of $300 plus billion a year with the U.S. on a serious downward path, and bring so many of the jobs and manufacturing back home. On this trade data for 2019 and the plan for 2020 of both countries is clear. It should be down each year by 10-20% for the next few years, a major achievement of Mr. Lighthizer, who did the same with  Japan under president Reagan. ...

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Ian Talley provides this excellent account of how this drop in oil prices is likely to add to economic growth in major world economies, removing any ambiguity about the positive effect on the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to about $65 from $105 between June and December 2014. The IMF estimates growth in 2015 will increase from 3.1% to 3.5% largely because of the lowering in energy costs. JP Morgan Chase economists see an addition of 0.7% points in global growth in the first half of 2015. ECB president Draghi sees the lower oil prices as an unambiguous positive. Estimates from Rhodium Group show major oil importing countries seeing import bills cut by $500 billion if prices remain low for 6-8 months, with $90 billion going into the U.S. economy. IMF estimate is that only 20% of the drop in oil prices is from lower demand, about 80% from higher fuel efficiency, increased supply using new technologies, decisions by OPEC to lower oil price, increases in supply. Based on estimates by the Rhodium Group, IEA and the IMF, the extra money flowing into the economies of the U.S., Asia and Western Europe from reduced oil import bills, as measured in percentage of GDP is: the U.S. 0.5%, Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. Italy and France and other oil importing countries benefit. The impact comes at a time when Japan, China, India and eurozone economies badly needed a boost after significant slowdown in growth in 2014. It could not have come at a better time and because it is technologically driven as in the case of highly fuel efficient automobiles and new oil exploration technologies, a self sustaining process. The corresponding impact for oil exporters is: Russia -4.7%, Nigeria -5.4%, Venezuela -10.2%....

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Germany faces serious problems in its vaccination drive and efforts to control the pandemic in November 2021. The rate at which people are getting vaccinated has slowed to 150,000 a day and the percentage of the population that is vaccinated is stuck at 67%. This percentage of 67% fully vaccinated in Germany as of November 3 is much lower than that in Spain, France and Italy.  Spain is at 78%, France at 69% and Italy at 72%. (Data from NYT) This report in the Guardian points out that most of the remaining one third of the population is not eager to get vaccinated as surveys show that the those who have refused to get a jab are unlikely to change their minds.There is also the problem of booster shots. Germany's 16 regions conduct the vaccination drives and with many of the vaccination centers not active since September staff has to be retrained or rehired. This makes it harder to give booster shots to everyone that was vaccinated early by the start of winter. Why is it that Germany lags behind Spain in vaccination? There is a great deal of trust in Spain and Portugal in the health service and people are 100% behind their health system. The other countries that have a low rate of fully vaccinated are the US at 58%, Brazil 57%, Russia at 33%. Even the UK with its well respected National Health Service remains at 68% fully vaccinated. Today the US, Russia, Brazil, European Union countries and India have many of the 5 million deaths from coronavirus. India's vaccination drive is approaching 1100 million vaccinated, yet there is along way to go in getting most of the population fully vaccinated because of the large population of 1.3 billion. This is why the Indian prime minister on the first day of returning from the COP26 climate summit devoted his time to meeting with leaders of different states and heads of districts with low vaccination rates to press home the idea that the effort had to be taken up vigorously in the coming months. ...

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Most of the reporting on Ukraine follows the war. Questions are asked how will this conflict end? This report in Der Spiegel is one of the rare reports that looks at the Ukrainian economy with images and reporting from the ground that answer that question. If the Ukrainian economy is surviving in 2023 then Ukraine will continue long after a peace settlement is reached. It shows for instance that supermarket shelves are well stocked. It shows energy from half a million generators keeps the lights on and companies working in Ukraine. The steel industry is mostly destroyed yet the software industry continues to grow. Unemployment is 30% even after hundreds of thousands of younger Ukrainians are at the war front. Of about $62 billion promised by US and European countries about $31 billion has actually been transferred to Ukraine. The IMF has created an exception for aid to Ukraine with offices in Kviv and Brussels. All defense needs are covered from the Ukraine budget. Before the invasion in Feb 2021 defense took up 9% of the budget, now it takes up 42% of the budget. Another 16% for public security. For social benefits 16%, and another 26% for other expenditures. By having an economy that is functioning and life even in light from generators and solar energy, with supermarkets well stocked and providing office space for workers, with aid mechanisms working. Ukraine has already emerged as part of Europe, tried, tested and come through adversity of the worst sort. It is supposed to join the European Union, yet Der Spiegel says it is already tightly integrated into the EU. Its power grid was integrated with the EU power grid before the war, and nuclear power was sent to the EU from Ukraine before Russian attacks on the nuclear plant. Then transmission lines brought energy to Ukraine from the EU. The EU takes in 80% of Ukraine agricultural exports compared to 20% before the war. Even at the risk of lower prices and hurting farmers in Poland, the Polish government has allowed large imports of agricultural products into Poland. The close links with countries of the EU that share a border with Russia have increased. The problems now are that Ukraine after this war will have severe shortage of manpower. Already with the fall of the Soviet Union Ukraine lost about 8 million people and population was 44 million before the war. About 8 million people moved to Ukraine in the one year following Russian invasion. Of this 1.5 million stayed in Poland, the rest went on to other countries in the EU or returned. The countries such as Germany, Finland, Czech Republic have labor shortages of their own and encourage refugees to stay. Rebuilding is estimated to cost $131 billion. Yet as is evident in Poland after most of the damage from the second world war in Poland it was rebuilt using modern technology. Ukraine survives, its life goes on, is the message from Der Spiegel. In this way the war's outcome is already evident. Much of it comes from the European Union having sensed that attacks made with impunity would endanger all of the European countries when made by any dominant power. This is also what Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown about European history for the past 500 years in History of Europe- The struggle for Supremacy 1452 to the present. No one country says Simms was able to act with impunity and pose athreat to its neighbors as all other countries in Europe rallied to prevent this. This war is no exception.   ...

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At 79 years, Wilbur Ross will be one of the oldest people serving in any administration, as he serves as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration. Wilbur Ross is best known for the turnaround efforts in the steel industry. In 2002 he acquired LTV Corp, a third largest steel producer in the U.S. facing tough times and legacy costs, for $125 million in cash and $200 million in environmental liabilities. In 2005 he sold his International Steel Group to Arcelor Mittal for $4.5 billion, and is still an independent director on the Arcelor board. Ross's earlier experience was as a bankruptcy specialist at Rothschild Inc. in the 1970's working on restructurings at Texaco, TWA and Continental Airlines. Analyst Charles Bradford is cited in this report by WSJ's John Miller, who competed with Ross in restructuring proposals for failing assets, and describes Ross as working harder and being tougher to make the deals. Some of these restructurings involved cutting pensions and large layoffs. The entire U.S. steel industry faced problems from foreign competition and legacy costs at the time. This included representing bondholders for Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City. At the time Ross told creditors considering seizing the asset for a possible missed payment that it would be better to keep Trump in charge for Trump properties as they would be worth more with Trump inside. This led to Ross later providing critical backing for the Trump campaign and raising money from the business community. Mitt Romney had similiar work at Bain Capital in turnaround of failing companies, later turning to politics as Governor of Massachusetts, and 2012 Republican nominee for president. Both Romney and Ross have come under criticism for their role in cost cuts at companies involving layoffs and cutting worker benefits. ...

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To preserve and protect the industrial base of America that was shipped overseas starting with Tim Cook and Apple in 2000, and without this industrial base the consequences not just in jobs and manufacturing knowhow lost forever but in loss of leadership of the Free World  which depends on industrial strength, the US president has to decide in 2025. A decision that comes after 25 years of deindustrializing America. DJT says- “I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else." “When they build their plant here, there’s no tariff, so they’re going to be building plants here. But I had an understanding with Tim that he wouldn’t be doing this. He said he’s going to India to build plants. I said, ‘That’s okay to go to India, but you’re not going to sell into here without tariffs,’ and that’s the way it is,”  “The iPhone, if they’re going to sell it in America, I want it to be built in the United States.”  ...

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Reports by David Sanger and other reporters from the NYT on the situation in Ukraine as seen from the US, Russian, European, and Ukrainian sides. Russian president Putin sees Ukraine as part of the Russian cultural and economic sphere with deep ties to Ukraine in its history. The western parts of Ukraine near Poland and near the capital Kiev see their future more in relation to other Eastern European countries that have moved closer to or joined the European Union such as Poland and the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It is not clear even to advisors to the Russian government what Mr. Putin's intentions and plans are. Russia has not yet recognized the two breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine based in Donestsk.  Some of the key points in Ukraine's recent history- one needs to know this because Ukraine has a difficult history in its relations with Poland/Lithuania and with Russia alternating over centuries, with neither relationship providing the kind of government that would have helped Ukraine's people. Formed only in 1991 the Republic of Ukraine has a long history since 1500 of being part of Poland and Lithuania, and later part of Russia, with some parts of Ukraine under the Austrian Hapsburgs till 1900. Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in the 1920's to the 1950's in one phase in which it suffered badly with collectivization of agriculture under Communist Soviet leadership and famines. In the second phase of Soviet rule after the 1950's Ukraine made a dramatic recovery as Krushchev assumed control with Leonid Brezhnev who was from Ukraine. After 1964 Brezhnev ran the the Soviet Union till 1984 and this was a good period for Ukraine. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 and Russian leader Yeltsin separated Ukraine and Belarus to go their own ways as separate countries from Russia. For 1990-2000 Ukraine did badly losing about 60% of its GDP, a situation also experienced by Russia with economic instability. Russia recovered under Putin, yet Ukraine has struggled since because of mismanagement under different governments and widespread entrenched corruption.  Governments alternated in the period 2000 to 2020 between ones friendly to Russia and friendly to Poland and European Union. This happened in 2004 and again with protests in 2014. The protests in 2014 in Kiev and Lviv led to a government that favored closer ties with EU and NATO. It is this pendulum swing that is Ukraine's and Eastern Europe's experience in the 20th century and it continues into the 21st. What Russia wants is for Ukraine to not be a place for NATO operations, even if it is not allied to Russia after Russian president Putin was disappointed with the Russian allied government's performance under Yanukovich in the 2000-2014 period with corruption and mismanagement. France in the 16th and to 18th century is described by Brendan Simms of Cambridge in his new book on Europe, as needing the external danger for unity, and unity to meet external danger. This could be true also for Russia as the danger posed by NATO helps bring unity to Russia. And this could be a way to unify Russia and provide it with the confidence that it seeks in its effort for parity with the European Union and the US, China in the 21st century.   ...

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Russia's central bank revises the initial figure of $500 million for rescue of Trust Bank to $2 billion, and an additional six year loan of about $550 million to go to an "investor" bank to take control of Trust Bank. State controlled VTB Bank will receive $2 billion and Gazprombank $1.4 billion in government help, according to Mr. Siluanov, Russia's Finance Minister. So far the Russian government has approved $20 billion for rescue in the banking system. Foreign currency reserves have declined by $16 billion to $398.9 billion, according to figures released by the central bank on Dec. 26, 2014. The Russian government plans to use the foreign currency holdings of Rosneft, Gazprom and other large state controlled exporting companies in 2015 to support the ruble. Mr. Siluanov says the government will need to look at its budget again to reduce spending, including military spending. His predecessor Alexei Kudrin called for reducing military spending to ensure stable finances long before this crisis....

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In a continuing effort to make certain all of the massive supplies of palm oil it uses- 1.36 million tons of palm oil a year- comes from sustainable sources, Unilever plans an investment of $100 million for a palm oil processing plant in Indonesia. Unilever's plan is to reach the goal of getting all of the palm oil it uses from sustainable sources by 2020, up from only 2% in 2011. This is part of its committment to the environment. Palm oil goes into making Dove soap, Magnum ice cream, and Vaseline lotion. The deforestation issue is becoming serious as land is cleared for palm oil plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia, and the only way for Unilever to be certain that it is done in a sustainable way is to move closer to the source of supplies.

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Greece's New Democracy party and Mr. Mitsotakis wins about 41% of the vote in Greece's elections. Syriza come is second with 21% and Pasok left party at 12%. Mitsotakis has increased Greece's growth to twice the eurozone rate, and cut migrants by 90% in line with EU policy. New Democracy party gets 145 seats in a 300 member parliament. The first round was conducted under proportional representation, only 60% of voters cast their vote. Mitsotakis will go for another election by July because in a second round the winner gets additional seats and this could let it form its own government. It sees this as needed to maintain policies of economic growth that have led to GDP growth at twice the rate of the eurozone. A surveillance scandal appears not to have affected the election results as Greeks opted for stability and growth. Mitsokatis himself put it this way- "This is not the time for experiments that lead nowhere." Greece was almost out of the eurozone when Syriza conducted referendums on the debt repayment that led to a chaotic situation, and then moved in the opposite direction in callous implementation when the Eurozone held firm. Mitsotakis said Greece needs to achieve an investment grade rating to lower borrowing costs. Worldwide the policy of delivering on growth is key to success in elections in democracies and in countries that are catching up after the colonialist phase. This is true for delivery of infrastructure and public services such as water and electricity, modern rail in India. It is true also for winning enough public support in countries like China that run parliamentary representation under one party the CCP. Strict immigration controls since 2015 reflect a similar policy pursued recently by Italy. Migrants have dropped by 90%. This is popular among Greeks. Looking back Merkel made a serious error in letting in migrants coming in from Hungary and Austria at the beginning of the migration inflows into the EU in 2015. Merkel came from former East Germany, the communist led GDR, and had no understanding of how harmful this would be for the European Union. In just one year by 2016 the misguided open migration policies of Merkel had led to her CDU party getting less votes than an anti immigration AfD party in her home state of Meckenburg. It led to anti-immigration movements in Europe that were used by parties in a self-serving way including in Britain that led to exit of Britain from the EU. It also led to a decade of austerity and a lost decade for the European Union as it permanently sidelined parties to the left such as Social Democrats that unknowingly or unwittingly ended up with the blame for the public's discomfort with lack of borders and migrants upsetting borders. In balance the right way to tackle this was to build stronger economies that supported workers and families in the EU, that then invested significantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia to help them catch up with modernization. Another failure in policy was the Bush-Obama Merkel policies in failed states such as Iraq and Afghanistan. There it was fundamentally important not to get involved in any way that committed US or EU's precious resources.  ...

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From Kansas to Southern Spain, pictures from The Guardian show the great conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn in the night skies looking out into The Milky Way in December 2020. At the time of the pandemic understanding how small our world is on this planet as light travels at 300,000 kilometres per second and it takes 2 seconds to reach earth from the moon, thousands of years for light to reach earth from distant stars of which scientists say there are 200 billion. A British scientist and astronomer says there are 200 billion in a new book "The History of the Universe in 21 Stars."

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It seems like good common sense -surely studies come later that masks can cut coronavirus cases by 40%- as Texas is learning the hard way. As coronavirus cases jump in Texas the governor makes wearing face coverings or masks mandatory in the state. Texas recorded over 8000 cases in a single day on July 3, 2020. "wearing a face covering will help us to keep Texas open for business." As a grim warning to Texans he said "we are now at a point where the virus is spreading so fast there is little margin for error." As the virus cases surged Mr. Abbott, the governor of Texas, ordered all bars shut and cut restaurant capacity by 75% last week and reversed step taken to open the economy. Another lesson learned the hard way when it seems like common sense- consider that on June 20 as reported in the WSJ a staggering 500,000 people went to bars in Los Angeles county the day after bars reopened. It is this type of activity that makes Dr. Fauci, say cases could reach 100,000 a day in the U.S. Infection rates are now increasing in 40 of 50 states with the southern states, western states doing badly.  A lot of it was plain common sense. A German study shows a 40% reduction of coronavirus cases when masks or face coverings are worn. For those arguing for the reopening so that economic hurt is mitigated there is even more reason to wear masks as it makes it possible to get back to work by following strict social distancing and mask guidelines. Everything in life is about adapting and making small changes for the larger good. Younger people have badly failed to show fellow feeling with lack of following social distancing guidelines on beaches and gatherings leading to the numbers now showing that people 18-34 are now equally at risk. ...

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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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Two Syrian cities are among the oldest in the world going back to 3000 BC. They are Aleppo and Damascus. This is close to when Varanasi on the Ganges in India was settled. Aleppo is older than Damascus.  The only European city that comes close is Plovdiv, Bulgaria, says this report in The Guardian. Most of the Syrian region is populated by Syrian Sunnis about 75% and there are Christian, 10%, Shia Alawite 11%, and other minorities in Syria.  The Syrian Civil War 2011-2024 destroyed most of the old city of Aleppo. Syria has 110 miles of Mediterranean coastline, mountains along the coastline and and area inland of wheat cultivation along the Euphrates river and the Syrian desert near Iraq in the east, Turkey to the north with Kurds in that area, and Jordan in the south. The Ottoman Turks ruled from 1516 to 1918. In 1920 a French Mandate was setup in Syria till 1943. Following the Second World War Syria was an independent nation and briefly joined Egypt in the UAR United Arab Republic.  ...

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Underwater homes where houses are worth less than the value of the mortgages are estimated at roughly 9 millon. Barney Frank's proposal is for the federal government to step in directly with government guarantee for $300 billion in new cheaper loans. Under this plan homeowners would be issued new mortgages for 90% of the new value of the home, the governmet would get a 5% stake, and the holder of the loan whether a bank or investment pool that holds the mortgage securities gets paid 85% of the new value of the home. Underwater homes would be appraised at market values for the new loans and its important that after this the prices not keep falling much below the ne appraised value. Note also the criteris for eligibility. Under Frank's plan those who took out loans from Jan, 2005 to June 2007 1 million people according to his estimate would be helped. Would lenders face losses? Yes they would have to recognize these losses rightaway but the foreclosures may mean bigger losses for the lenders especially as the downward spiral would probably give them much less than the 85% as appriasal values sink....

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Fisher and Taub in NYT give a brief history of Venezuelan politics and government since the 1950's to help readers understand today's economic and political crisis under president Maduro. How did a country with huge oil resources end up with depleted cash reserves to the point of creating shortages of basic goods on supermarket shelves, how did inflation reach over 700%, and how did the economy contract by over 10%, by some estimates close to 20%, in 2016? Venezuela's story is a reminder that populist movements do not hold the answer to political or economic problems, as they create corruption of their own as new groups of people try to perpetuate themselves in power, and new economic problems as they try to win favor with their own support base. Also through economic mismanagement worsened by economic changes such as oil prices or some other adverse development in the global economy. Internal divisions means the capacity of the country to respond is weakened. Brazil has shown the problems of corruption with new political groups and the weakening of government finances. Venezuela is the extreme example of how a lot can go wrong over time after the initial response to a new populist group is positive as it was in Venezuela in 1998, even with advantage of rich natural resources. Change that fragments a country and polarizes a country instead of pulling together the country's human talent around a program that all groups agree to support, is a signal of future problems. The rule of law is an essential component not just of democracy, but of economic development and progress of any country. These are the lessons of Venezuela for today. Economic crises in the eighties led to loss of public confidence in the two main political parties which alternated in power since the founding of democracy in 1958. In 1998 a military officer named Chavez won the election on the platform of returning power to the people and reducing corruption. Chavez reforms initially were popular. Popular protests in 2002 led to the military briefly taking power before returning power back to Chavez. This led to Chavez moving further towards consolidating power leading to a polarization of society. The oil company workers who went on strike were fired replaced by Chavez supporters and oil funds were diverted to popular programs. In the process Chavez isolated Venezuela from the world economy, leading to lack of foreign investment, and Venezuela falling behind other countries in Latin America, even though it had large oil resources. To retain control of the streets this report shows Chavez helped organize the colectivos or local supporters organized as vigilante groups, which has led to further polarization. Corruption in the military and with the colectivos has led to power being fragmented between different groups. The oil companies fund reserves were depleted by corruption depriving Venezuela of an essential cushion as oil prices dropped. Chavez died of health problems with Maduro winning the election in April 2013 by 50.6% of the vote. The parliamentary elections led to the opposition parties winning by a landslide in December 2015. The current problems with daily street protests stems from the economic crisis, with inflation as high as 700% and shortages of basic goods, the economy declining by over 10% in 2016. The uncontrolled printing of money has fueled rampant inflation.The efforts by president Maduro to nullify the powers of Congress in an effort to control the country and override Congress, has worsened the discontent with the government.   ...

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China after American and European offshoring of supply chain and manufacturing over three decades is going through a rapid reversal. People to people contacts are also falling off a precipice as it were, showing how badly structured efforts by business focused on profit and not people to people fail miserably, hurting the long term prospect of peaceful cooperation. Foreign Investment that was $100 billion in the first quarter of 2022 is now $20 billion. Tourism down by about 80%. At Zhangjiajie National Park goes from half a million foreign tourists to 50,000 last year. It is typical of this staggering change.  People are not going from America and Europe to China unless they have to. It shows the complete failure of a purely business relationship such as offshoring manufacturing when it hurts workers and families in America and Europe, who turn against it leading to a free fall in relations. American and European business and the governments allied with it failed in this sense to build a world of better interpersonal relations between Asia and the western world. China's experience with industrialization and modernization begun in 1990 is now a cautionary tale for other regions such as India and the Middle East that are planning their own modernization. Much of it happened less from a people to people relationship than from an effort by US business to seize the opening of China after Mao's revolution to offshore American manufacturing as if realizing a new opportunity without understanding its long term consequences for the American people. European business followed American business in this offshoring. It damaged the basic structure of the American and EU peoples based on locally based supply chains and manufacturing at home needed for strong healthy communities, leading to this situation today. The rancor and deeply seated discontent all across America and Europe from communities losing factories and the jobs and wealth coming from it from offshoring by business interests has created this situation.  ...

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Capital outflows from China by legal and other methods tolerated by the authorites comes to $225 billion or 3% of GDP in the year ending Sept. 2012, according to research by the the Wall Street Journal. The research looked at foreign exchange reserves and factors that affect reserves such as foreign direct investment, trade surplus, interest on foreign assets and exchange rate fluctuations. Estimates by Lombard Street Research are higher- at $300 billion for this period. By comparison Journal research shows the capital outflows for 12 months to March 2009 during the global financial crisis was $110 billion. An extreme situation is the 23% of GDP in capital outflows from Indonesia during the global financial crisis. Money transfer agents are widely used by wealthy Chinese to move money overseas and are tolerated by the authorites- everything from financing tution for children to buying condos in Cyprus can be done this way. Cyprus gives EU citizenship to any person investing 300,000 euros in a property. Increased foreign investment by Chinese companies and earnings by exporters that are kept overseas are also part of this outflow....

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David Brooks of the NYT is critical of the way Google CEO Sundar Pichai handled the Damore email affair. Pichai cut the discussion short and fired a 28 year old engineer who wrote a controversial memo about women and working in the software industry. Brooks says the memo actually makes things harder for women in a male dominated tech world.  Not mentioned here or in the coverage in the media is that Google could have used this as an opportunity to refocus the discussion on how to correct the exaggerated tilt in favor of men in the male dominated tech world- about 80% male. Even with the differences between men and women is such a huge tilt a good idea? How could it be handled by giving women better opportunities and changing the culture itself to ways that can make it good for both sexes. An extremely competitive environment with its corresponding behaviours is not the best environment for all. Most of the male dominated tech world does not walk the talk by actually helping women in tech in multiple ways, including changing their own culture- this itself could have become the focus of the discussion. Google could turn its gaze inward and say this is happening because it was too late or not doing enough, and use this as a wake up call- letting people be heard, yet quietly redoubling its efforts as some contrary voices explain how the current situation happened, is another way to respond effectively that eluded Google.  ...