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China is gradually getting back to normal. With few new infections from coronavirus, factories are starting production again, and stores are reopening, people gradually coming outdoors.

For factories there is one problem- as Europe and the U.S. battle the coronavirus and impose their own lockdowns demand has evaporated. Factories are seeing canceled orders and having to operate with smaller number of workers.

All the graphs shown in this report for Beijing traffic congestion, Guangzhou subway rides and property transactions show the curves for 2020 way, way below the curves for 2019.

This also gives some idea of what the road ahead will look like in the U.S. and Europe. That the recovery will take time and patience after a difficult period ahead tackling the coronavirus state by state. Lost jobs, diminished confidence and fallen income will take time to recover.

 

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Just days after the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge on the outer harbor of Baltimore, a key part of Maryland's infrastructure and its industrial and shipping jobs, this report in the WSJ shows candidates will not be discussing how they will fix the many problems from infrastructure, to rebuilding manufacturing, and investing in education, healthcare. On the same day March 30, 2024 the WSJ headline was that many other large bridges of this size all over America could collapse including Chesapeake Bay, Verrazano Narrows and George Washington in NY-NJ, and Golden Gate, San Francisco-Oakland in California. On the same day an interview with Morris Chang of Taiwan Semiconductor showed 92% of advanced semiconductor manufacturing was controlled  by TSMC with much of it located in Taiwan and China, under a business model that means advanced technology manufacturing in the US that would take the place of the lower tech textile and other mills sent to China, would also be shipped out. Manufacturers in the US including Apple HP and others agreed, leaving American workers in the lurch, hitting communities all across America without manufacturing jobs and without hope. That model has been around since the 1990's. It is as if the American people, workers and families in the US were never consulted. That story is told alongside this article in Lyrarc.com ...

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Peter Navarro Trade Adviser to US president DJT says the problem with Germany and Japan is about finished cars, but also about their strategic control of powertrain manufacturing − the engine, transmission and drivetrain components that are at the heart  of a vehicle. These components not only give the highest profit margins, they provide the highest paying manufacturing jobs. The result of their domination of engines as only 20% of the engines in cars made in the US are made in America, the rest 80% are imported from Germany, Austria, Japan and South Korea, is that the US is consigned to doing low wage labor assembly in this script written by foreign manufacturers. He calls this the gut punch from VW, Benz and BMW, from Toyota, Subaru and Hyundai.  Navarro says- "This isn’t protectionism. It’s restoration. Restoration of full-spectrum manufacturing, from bolt to body. Restoration of high-wage, high-skill jobs. And restoration of America’s arsenal of democracy. Let the restoration begin."   ...

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This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

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US retail sales rebounded in January 2023 increasing by 3% after sales declines in the last 2 months of 2023. Shoppers spent more on vehicles, furniture, clothing and dining out. Employers added half a million jobs in January, according to the Labor Department. This shows a resilient US economy in the middle of high inflation and higher interest rates by the Fed to fight inflation.

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China and India pass Mexico as immigration to the U.S. from Mexico declines rapidly, as a result of an improving Mexican economy, the 2008-2011 recession in the U.S. with sharp drop in jobs for construction, lower birthrates, and stricter U.S. law enforcement at the U.S. border with Mexico. Researchers using the American Community Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau found immigration from China increased to 147,000 from China, 129,000 from India, as it declined to 125,000 from Mexico, for 2013. This Survey counts a person as an immigrant for a particular year who says he was living abroad previously. Mexico shows a decline from 400,000 in 2000, with steady decline for every year after 2005. In 2000 India and China were at about 75,000, and did not cross the 100,000 mark till 2007. Other Asian countries are also at the top including S. Korea, Philippines and Japan. William Frey documents this surge in diversity in the U.S., -which is supplemented by now common intermarraige between young people from different countries of origin- in his book "Diversity Explosion."...

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Mexico's Felipe Calderon cites the achievements during his 6 years in office: the efforts to establish a rule of law state, reduce the influence of drug trafficking gangs, improve higher technical education with 113,000 engineers now graduating each year, generating jobs and economic growth, and reducing the flow of people moving across the border with the U.S. as conditions improve in Mexico.

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What the president is doing about the surge in imported goods from China that are subsidized and affect US jobs and industry. For steel president Biden plans to place an additional tariff that takes the existing 7.5% to 25%. Even though imports of Chinese steel have dropped to about 600,000 tons the imports from Mexico are high at 4.2 million tons and there is the risk that Chinese subsidized steel is coming through Mexico.

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Jeanne Whalen on the Two Speed Economy in the US September 2025- diverging paths of low and high income Americans. With the new administration in 2025 priorities shift to immigration and what to do about 14 million illegal migrants from Latin America and other places, war on fentanyl and drug trafficking gangs with hundreds of thousands of lives lost to fentanyl and drugs in the US, crime and safety which includes the unprecedented illegal movement of drug trafficking in the Nation, and to a bold posture on using US advantages of its huge market to get European Union, Japan, South Korea, and China to level the playing field on trade bring jobs home.The Biden administration had already conceded to DJT's approach in its one term presidency by shifting on uncontrolled illegal migration but not fast enough, by not removing DJT's tariffs, and failing to take an aggressive posture on fentanyl and drug trafficking. Of the DJT plan US has tariff based revenues of 10--15% for all countries imports into US can that it redirect to groups to soften any effects of tariffs. DJT administration oil transition policy of stretching out the transition to give middle class and lower classes cost of living relief was also accepted by the Biden administration and is now the policy of Democrat run California state government.  The US economy was slowing in 2024 under the Biden administration. What has changed in 2025 is that the US stock markets are responding to steps taken by the DJT Republican administration to lower the cost of doing business by softening regulations, and giving US business the upper hand in different industries, and rebuilding the manufacturing sector with calls for EU and Japan/South Korea to invest more in the US as a quid pro quo for market access. This has led to increase in the value of market portfolios of the income earners above 250,000, or 10% of American households. As this happens the process of trade renegotiation has introduced some uncertainty in 2025 and businesses are looking for more clarity before increasing investment and slowing job hiring which hurts younger people entering the job market and lower income Americans. Were things better under Biden? Government Covid assistance and payouts in the early years 2020-2021 helped lower income workers, as this faded and the cost of living autos, housing increased sharply under Biden in 2022-2024 the situation deteriorated. The situation today is similar to the situation in 2024 with the difference in 2025 that inflation is coming down just as government help is receding. And added factor is the DJT administration plan to tackle head on the increasing cost of Medicaid to about $1 trillion by adding new requirements and reducing subsidies. The federal workforce had a disproportionate share of black workers and the policy changes to reduce the federal workforce have increased black unemployment from 6.1% under Biden in August 2024 to 7.5 % a year later. Hispanics have seen slight improvement in unemployment to 5.3% in 2025, and the middle class incomes also have held up and are holding steady. Meantime Bloomberg points out that one third of people in the top 10% are living paycheck by paycheck because of high cost of housing, university education for children, and inflation.     ...

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The BBC Fact check for crime, cost of living, immigration, world affairs is shown next to this transcript of the former president's speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, July 2024. The biggest issue is cost of living, for housing, food and groceries, gas and automobiles new and repairs. "I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill. Prices will start to come down." Fact: Gas prices may come down a bit, but it will do little or nothing for the other major components of cost of living - for housing and mortgage rates of 6-7%, for automobile prices and auto repairs, for food and groceries.The problem of job creation will come to the fore because of an inherent contradiction of trying to commit to Republican old platform of tax cuts for the wealthy and efforts to take cost of living action for the now larger lower and middle classes. Without this money that goes to tax cuts for wealthy there is not much to invest in Make at Home, in manufacturing in US the way Biden is doing and plans for next 4 years creating hundreds of thousands of jobs every month and still keeping inflation low at 3% through an investment driven economy. ...

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Hear this America- Calling something that is all around us a hoax is not like telling a lie on media. Calling a thing a hoax when it is a growing Threat has Big, Big, Big consequences that you might not even want to think about. Project 2025 and "Drill Baby Drill" would create billions of tons more of carbon pollution and destroy any climate change action that would help control climate change- causing even bigger fires and sudden floods all over the world. The cost says think tank Energy Innovation is 2.7 billion tons of carbon pollution- what India emits in 1 year- and 1.7 million job losses by 2030 from jobs lost in renewable energy including small offset from fossil fuels. The cost would be at the minimum over $1 trillion dollars to repair by 2028- the cost of not taking action on climate change for four years, of additional floods and fires larger than ones before,  and of tackling the additional damage to the climate, the loss of the technological advances needed over next 4 years, the investments needed to tackle a much larger problem than it is now. It would require larger deficits to tackle and risk the health and well being of future generations. For the US compared to China the consequence will be a severe loss of technological advantage in the technologies for renewable energy that no longer, no longer have the support of the government as they do in China.   ...

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A 110 aircraft $15 billion deal is being negotiated by India with Boeing and other manufacturers. This deal requires all aircraft be assembled in India to create jobs, and requires transfer of technology so that India can build up its own defense industry for exports. The U.S. sees India as a counterpoint to China in the Indian Ocean as China expands in that region, and transfer of technology is being done to increase Indian capabilities. In the past India has sourced defense needs including aircraft from Russia, and this is an effort to improve ties with India. Lockheed is considering building F-16 aircraft in India with Indian partner Tata. 

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...

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China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

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Krugman points out that the loss of 490,000 public sector jobs in Britain, as laid out in British Finance Minister Osborne's plan, is equivalent to the loss of 3 million jobs in the U.S.. He does not see the private sector being able to create the jobs to make up for this loss. He cites Osborne's speech to Parliament, in which he said that "Britain was on the brink of bankruptcy," as a shift in rhetoric of the Cameron government from hope to concern that jobs in the private sector would not materialize.

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Globalization is being replaced with government support for attracting new investment and industry. Germany is providing $11 billion for 2 Intel semiconductor plants. The Biden administration $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act investment by the US sets the new pathway for government to support industry to increase investment and create good paying jobs inside the US. This reverses decades of neglect of American manufacturing by administrations from the time of president Reagan through the Bush, Obama and Trump administrations. A new world order is being shaped that enables the EU and the US to compete with China with direct government support for industry.  The US and the EU gain, the UK and Singapore lose out in the new arrangement.

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The long 1300 mile journey of a consumer good is tracked in this WSJ documentary to show how complicated and crazy supply chains have become. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine are leading to this realization about how crazy things have become, the shift to shorter supply chains and bringing  manufacturing home or closer to home. Factories half a world away with products that turn up on consumer shelves a year later, does this make sense anymore, is the question raised in this WSJ documentary. Not told is the story of how this impacts jobs at home and how it impacts everything in local communities which consume these products. On the tax revenues from missing local factories shipped overseas that did not build the necessary infrastructure that makes communities livable and the funding for schools and hospitals. And the good manufacturing jobs that are missing in these local communities in the US and European Union leading to the fraying of societies and the values that underpin them. ...

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Jennifer Harris, heads the Economy and Society Initiative of the William and Flora Foundation. Andy Grove of Intel and Bill Hewlett of Hewlett Packard are the original founders of what is called Silicon Valley in California. It was Andy Grove who offered the first protest of American policy that shifted jobs and manufacturing overseas, saying he did not want to live in a country where the people and the communities we live are being ignored under some policy that shifts everything and with it hopes and aspirations of the American people overseas to Asia. Farah Stockman of the NYT shows how Jennifer Harris and Jake Sullivan are shaping the new ideas on economic policy at the Biden administration. Jake Sullivan addressed the Brookings Foundation on Biden's economic policy saying Biden wanted different backgrounds to understand the needs of people in the US, that domestic needs for jobs and manufacturing, for infrastructure, would now drive foreign relations. That this was a key aspect of the Biden economic policy. Harris and Sullivan have worked together. ...

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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that the Trump administration tariffs and the response from China with tariffs of its own, are not the beginning of a trade war but negotiating tactics of both sides. Behind the scenes and behind the declarations and position statements both sides are talking to each other and considering the options open to each. The U.S. position is that China has emerged with a bigger share of the global economy by dumping products, subsidizing its industries from solar panels to high tech ventures, and stealing American technology by forcing U.S. firms into joint ventures that increase pass through of advanced technology. U.S. firms seeking access to the Chinese market or using China as a manufacturing base such as Boeing, Apple, GE and other high tech companies are in ventures or manufacturing arrangements where China has access to advanced American technology. Nathaniel Taplin in his article in the WSJ also sees this as a negotiating position set out in the U.S. for talks with China. Taplin says the U.S. is in a stronger position in this negotiation because of the huge surplus of about $300 billion that China now has with the U.S., and which is increasing in 2018 with the strength of the dollar. The Trump administration is looking to correct the trade imbalance in the future by focussing on China's access to advanced U.S. technologies in the next phase of competition between the U.S., Europe and China. This limited objective is more likely to lead to concessions by China Taplin argues, because of two reasons. China needs the dynamism of U.S. firms and technology advances because these firms and Chinese firms that are getting foreign investment are the most productive part of the Chinese economy with jobs generated, rate of return about twice that of inefficient state run firms. China also needs access to advanced U.S. and European technologies even in a limited form as it pursues further modernization.   ...

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Oil prices drop below $38 by mid-December 2015, as the Saudis continue to push prices down further by continuing production increases. No change is planned for 2016 and analysts expect low oil prices into 2016. At $38 a barrel it becomes uneconomical for most shale oil producers to operate in the U.S. About 50,000 jobs are lost in Texas and 250,000 jobs worldwide. This is a boost for large oil importers such as India, Japan, and Europe. China also stands to benefit from low oil prices. Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Russia have the most to lose from an extended period of low oil prices. Politics in the Middle East also may play a part in decisions as the Saudis oppose intervention in Syria and Iraq by Russia and Iran. Rising shale oil production in the U.S. could also be one of the additional targets of Saudi policy. One consequence is that OPEC is divided with the Saudis going their own way.

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New graduates 22-26 years are facing a tough job market in June 2025. The US job market deteriorates for new graduates in the first quarter 2025. Companies are hesitant to hire new people with no experience.  The job market for 26-34 years and 35-44 years is a lot better. In fact for 35-44 years it is about 2% unemployment and for 26-34 years it is about 3% unemployment rate, compared to 6.6% for new graduates.

For high school graduates 18 years old unemployment rate is 14.5% and most high school graduates live with their parents.

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David Blanchford of Dartmouth College and Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute of International Economics argue in a recent paper that the true indicator of unemployment in this economy -with a low participation rate and millions dropping out of the labor market unable to find work- is the wage growth. This is particularly true with the U.S. Labor Department report of 288,000 new jobs in 2014 and a 6.3% unemployment rate, yet wages flat for March and April 2014, and no improvement in the participation rate. Blanchford says one should look at the wage growth and consider the rest to be noise. The Yellen Fed is looking closely at the participation rate.

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Bradsher, Tankersley and Cohen say in this NYT report- US industrial policy under president Biden corrects the failures of the past. Chinese experts in Hong Kong say the US and Europe deindustrialized their economies with pursuing of policies called "neo-liberal" but basically Reagan era policies that Democratic presidents Clinton-Obama imitated. As they deindustrialized it created disaffection among the struggling lower and middle income classes making $35,000-$106,000 that were big losers in the process, creating threats to democracy as financial and tech, plus pharmaceutical sectors took control of the economy. China's success comes from three decades of mastering the ways of practicing industrial policy that it can support private companies with low cost land, additional subsidies that reduce the cost of production and provide a buffer to absorb losses so that it could dominate key industries. Policies where textbooks and economists trained in the US failed utterly and completely leading to dangers to US democracy that we see as opportunities for good paying jobs in manufacturing disappeared for middle and lower income households from 1980 to 2020. These economists trained in the US always said see lower cost Chinese made goods means lower and middle income people pay less, never saying that this means all opportunities for better paying jobs in manufacturing will be lost for these classes in society. The tech and financial sectors had close ties to the new arrangement that turned manufacturing over to China from the Reagan era to the Obama and Trump era. Apple and Tesla and many industries benefitted from manufacturing mostly outsourced to China. ...

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The U.S. economy showed a rebound with the purchasing manager's index for August at 54.7 compared to 50.3 in July. Manufacturing output up to 53.6. Over 50 indicates expansion. Job gains slowed in July. Overall the U.S. economy is recovering but industrial production is still 8.2% less than a year ago level according to the Federal Reserve. Easing of lockdowns overseas help exports. For the eurozone the PMI index is at 51.6 in August from 54.9 in July, as the second wave of pandemic hits service sector there.