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Andy Street, Mayor of the West Midlands Combined Authority, says when you consider that London gets 7 times the infrastructure spending per person than West Midlands, "its not bloody surprising" that his region is not growing fast. West Midlands covers a large part of central England, including Wolverhampton, Birmingham and Coventry. Even life expectancy is lower by 8 years in Blackpool, and disposable income can be quarter in Camden compared to North London. Labor's Corbyn and Conservative's Thatcher in the British general election are both campaigning for reviving the regions outside London, that have seen investment in people and technology lag substantially behind London. Regional revival is the big issue in this election. Consider that London which accounted for about 15% of economic output in the 1980's now accounts for nearly 25% of economic output of Britain. Berlin is about 4% of Germany's economy, and Paris 10% of France's economy. A word of caution on Brexit is sounded by experts at the University of Birmingham, who say the whole process of Brexit is so complicated that it may detract from the task of reviving this region. Even though the political upheaval had origins in this discontent, was it more about shifting government attention to the gap between London and the rest of the country, and less about a complex process of withdrawal from the European Union. ...

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From the beginning coordinated effort had little prospect between the U.S., the EU, and Russia to address Islamic State and terrorism with Russia's continuing its policies in Syria. This is less likely now with the shooting down of a Russian war plane over Turkey, continued tensions with bombing of Turkic populations on the border, and Russia's bombing campaign in Syria hitting targets all over the region.

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Juleanna Glover points to the need for financing of the Kurdistan regional government in Iraq as the central government in Baghdad has failed to make payments to the KRG for its share of national oil income. The KRG would receive 17% of Iraq's national oil income under negotiated agreements, but only $2 billion of $12 billion owed to KRG has been transferred in 2015. The Kurds also have to support 1.8 million refugees from Syria and Iraq with the ongoing civil war. The World Bank predicts a shortfall in funding for KRG of $1.5 billion in 2015, and it needs a $2.4 billion bridge loan. Peshmarga forces it is reported have not been paid for 3 months even as the Kurds have borne a disproportionate share of the burden in the war.

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This report by David Sanger in the NYT cites insiders in the Obama administration suggesting that the Saudis never really considered the peace talks in the region organized by Secretary of State Kerry as a serious effort with the escalation in the bombing by Russia, and other events including Iran's two ballistic missile tests. Turkey was drawn into the conflict with Russian bombing of ethnic Turkish groups at the border with Syria. By ignoring these events affecting Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries, the Obama administration appeared to be calling for a peace effort that seemed to have little prospect of succeeding. As Trofimov suggests in a separate report in the WSJ the Saudis were more focussed on winning domestic support from conservative Sunnis, seeing the Obama administration as ineffective on the issue of refugees from Syria and the conditions for the civilian population.

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China adopts a two child policy nationwide in October 2015, abandoning a one child policy adopted in 1980. Experts had warned for years of a policy that would lead to fewer young people, and a rapidly aging society. UN forecasts show China will have about 400 million people over the age of 60 in 2030, 25% of the population in 2030, compared to 14% today if current trends continued. Growth of elderly people would burden the pension and health care systems. The birth rate of 1.4 children per woman is lower than in the U.S. today.

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President Obama proposes changes in taxes to fund programs to aid students such as free 2 years of community college, aid for student loans, and financial help for middle class families. Senate Majority Leader McConnell says the proposals to raise income taxes for high income Americans with $320 billion in new revenues over 10 years, reduced prospects for changes in the tax system. He said the Obama proposals were designed " to excite the base but not designed to pass." Obama says "the shadow of crisis has passed," and calls for "middle class economics," and improving incomes for anyone making the effort. The call comes as inequality widened during the long recession and some of the Obama administration's policies such as on homeowner foreclosure, and lack of focus on unemployment during the first term, may have actually worsened inequality. The call also comes late in the second term in Jan 2015- with presidential elections in 2016- after the Republicans gain control of both Houses of Congress, which is why Republicans dismiss this as mere political talking points for the base....

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Turkey's transition to democracy and a growing emerging market. Turkey's example provides a pathway for modernization in Egypt.

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Speaker Boehner's difficulties getting Republican votes in the U.S. House of Representatives. 151 Congressmen and majority leader Cantor voted against the McConnell-Biden fiscal cliff agreement of Jan. 1, 2013.

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Under the McConnell-Biden fiscal cliff deal of Jan. 1, 2013, $620 billion is raised for deficit reduction over 10 years. This is made up of $395 billion from raising the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 35% for the top 1% of filers who make $450,000 for couples or 400,000 for singles. Raising the top rate on capital gains and dividends to 20% from 15% raises $55 billion. Limiting the personal exemption and itemized deductions on incomes over $250,000 is a key component as it raises $150 billion. This reduction of tax expenditures was recommended by Simpson-Bowles deficit commission and Republican advisor Martin Feldstein, with more money raised under their proposals than the current proposal which follows the Pease format. Under the Pease limits named after a Congressman who proposed this in the 1990's, 3% of the amount above the threshhold income is deducted from the total deductions. Feldstein's proposal limited deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income. Romney offered a plan to limit deductions to $25,000. Finally, increasing the estate tax to 40% from 35% raises $20 billion....

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Mark Frazier, a professor at the New School, is the author of the book "Socialist Insecurity: Pensions and Politics of Uneven Development in China." Here he describes the situation in China for the elderly and pensions. There is no Social Security Administration in China like the one in the U.S. Pensions are the responsibility of local authorites. Urban pensions were established in 1951. Pensions for rural areas and farmers came only in 2009. The situation in China for pensions is much like that in the U.S. before FDR's New Deal, being run by a patchwork of local programs- about 2500 county and city governments running pension funds. The problems of pension programs being run for the benefit of well connected groups and making risky investments exists in such local programs. Local governments taking on large levels of debt is a serious problem. The pension program in Shanghai came under scrutiny because of risky investments. A report in Dec 2012 cited by Frazer cites empty accounts at 2.2 trillion yuan or $353 billion. The National Social Security Fund has only $140 billion. Overall pensions account for about 3% of GDP in China compared to 4.9% in the U.S....

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Serious problems facing Turkey's economy. Turkey takes on too many risks as exports cannot keep up with rising imports leading to a severe current account imbalance. Official statistics show the economic growth at 11% in the first quarter, with the growth coming mainly from the construction, retail and financial sectors, and a result of a surge in demand and rapid credit growth. Imports expanded at 42.6% , and exports at 11.7%. The Turkish manufacturing sector has not strengthening its competitiveness. And increases in manufacturing output come from increased imports- with 85% of imports being commodities and semifinished goods, according to an Istanbul economist who contributed to a recent 350 page strategy report commissioned by the Erdogan government. Fast economic growth comes from rapid growth in credit, and consumption demand, but the underlying manufacturing competitiveness and economic fundamentals show warning signs. The government of prime minister Erdogan- distracted by politics and efforts to change the constitution- appears not to have grasped the urgency of the situation it faces....

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Janet Yellen, Fed chairwoman, says the financial system is safer now after the financial regulation, stress testing, living wills and other changes that the Federal Reserve has implemented. She says there is no need for a reduction in these key regulatory rules. One of the changes is that banks now use a safer mix of financing- equity financing has doubled for capital, and wholesale borrowing is cut in half, since the 2008 financial crisis that took the U.S. and with it the global financial system to the brink of disaster. The appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed by the Trump administration was intended to  reduce regulation, and this is Yellen's response to such proposed ideas. 

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The problems facing U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, as a government shutdown occurs in October 2013. Republicans and Demorats fail to agree on raising the debt ceiling and financing of the government. Boehner faces a movement in the Republican party led by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas for defunding the Obamacare law.

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Tankersley points to the broken links between economic growth and growth in jobs and incomes since 1989, which have created a shrinking U.S. middle class. In the postwar period before 1989, a one percent increase in economic growth generated a six tenths of one percent increase in jobs growth during economic recoveries. During the 1992 recovery under George Bush this was down to 0.4%. In the 2001 recovery under George W. Bush this dropped to 0.2%, during the current recovery under Obama this is at 0.3%. Income growth also showed a similiar pattern. Median household incomes declined from 1990-1992 and from 2002-2004, after adjusting for inflation, even with economic growth of 6% during this period. For the 2009-2011 recovery period the economic growth was about 4% yet real median incomes increased barely at 0.5%. By contrast from 1982 to 1984 with economic growth of 11%, real median incomes went up by 5%. The result workers median wages are lower now in the beginning of 2013, after inflation adjustment, than at the end of 2003, and real household income lower in 2011 than in 1989, says Tankersley. Why were the recoveries of 1990 and 2001 for the most part jobless? U.S. Federal Reserve studies show employers mindset had changed, instead of hiring back laid off workers during recoveries, employers did not add many jobs. Automation in factories requiring fewer workers, global outsourcing and supply chains, manufacturing overseas, lack of union-management cooperation on wages and jobs in industries such as the auto industry, increase in temp workers, all played a part in creating fewer and fewer good paying jobs. Some of this is playing out worldwide. In Japan the economic recovery has also come with similiar costs- moving jobs overseas for the auto and electronics industries, increase in temporary worker jobs with lower pay and benefits to about one third of all jobs, and depressed consumer spending as a result lowering the economic growth potential. Even the recent German economic recovery has come with an increase in lower paying temporary jobs and driven by exports to Asia. For the U.S. the situation was worsened by three additional factors- housing foreclosures and the hit to savings from the 2008 financial crisis, high cost of college tution and resulting debt, and the high cost of medical care. The Obama administration's effort to increase the minimum wage would help the poor, but do little to address the broken links between economic growth and jobs growth/income growth. The push for college education does not address affordability and neglects jobs training. Most of the questions raised by the changing patterns remain unanswered, which may be why Obama calls this a generation's task, not that of one administration....