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52 to 48 US Senate vote confirms Tulsi Gabbard as Intelligence Chief in Feb 2025. And the vote to confirm RFK Jr at Health and Human Services moves to the US Senate.

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account of how the debt deal between Argentina and the hedge funds was negotiated. A decade long deadlock was broken for the first time when Argentina's finance secretary in the newly elected government of Mauricio Macri met Jonathan Pollock and Jay Newman of Elliott Management on Dec. 7, 2015, at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. It is based on 8 intervews with the participants in the negotiations, court filings and emails. Critical to the settlement was the work of Dan Pollack, a trial lawyer with the McCarter & English law firm who acted as the mediator and made some rules including no pen and paper allowed, building trust through open discussion. Back channels helped including one setup through Marcos Mindlin of energy firm Pampa Energia in Argentina, who helped the hedge funds communicate with the Argentine negotiators. Mindlin met the hedge fund representatives at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Argentine president Macri insisted on making the terms he offered public on Feb. 1, 2016 of $6.5 billion because this is a sensitive issue in Argentina. Pollack pushed for a simple business transaction to close the issue and not the complex debt structuring the hedge funds favored. On Feb. 19, Judge Griesa of Federal District Court in Manhattan, who presided over the legal settlement, agreed to lift an injunction that would prevent Argentina from making bond payments and raising new money, and set a deadline of Feb. 29 for the settlement. On Feb. 28 the deal was signed by all the hedge funds. Argentina paid all holdout hedgefunds $9.3 billion, according to the Economy ministry, Elliott getting $2.4 billion....

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This Canadian opinion in the WSJ by Philip Cross of Statistics Canada, says Canada's opportunity to diversify its exports to places other than the US, especially for auto exports is essentially nil, and for oil exports because of a lack of pipelines will lead to losses of tens of billions of dollars.  He then goes on to say that Canada should wait for American buyers to suffer as car prices increase by $12,000. No such increase is likely. As pointed out by the UAW's Fain Shawn and others capacity utilization at US auto plants is low with only 60 to 65% capacity utlilization. Ford with 60% capacity utilization, has 568,000 cars in inventory 8% higher than 2024, and make 80% of its cars entirely in the US. Ford is actually cutting prices of its cars as of April 2025 under it's "From America For America Program." Ford and GM could replace German and other cars as Americans shift to buying American. Hyundai and Kia are already shifting production to the US. South Korean and Japanese leaders will support the US as it is the right thing to do. This Canadian opinion does not acknowledge that the US is simply creating a level playing field, a point USTR Jamieson and DJT repeatedly make, and the Japanese, South Koreans, and even the Chinese understand. These countries were given the benefit they received for three decades through the absolute generous attitude of the American people.   ...

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Since mid-2014 the dollar has strengthened by 19% against the euro and 17% against the Japanese yen. This is putting new pressure on American manufacturers to come up with efficiency improvements to cut costs and move into markets with better pricing power. This will increase in importance in 2015-2016 as the euro moves towards parity with the U.S. dollar increasing the competitiveness of German and other European manufacturers. The Japanese yen at 116 to the dollar in Jan 2015 gives Japanese manufacturers an edge in pricing competitiveness.

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Steep rate increases hit retirees holding long term care policies. About 7.3 million retirees hold such policies.This means that either retirees pay these steep price increases or simply are forced to turn away from the policies. A safety net has now turned into something else. Sales of such policies have dropped from 750,000 in 2002 to 100,000 in 2016, and even fewer in 2017, according to the American Association for Long term Care Insurance.

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Shinjiro Koizumi 44 years, and Sanae Takaichi 64 years, contending for leadership of LDP and prime minister in Japan in September 2025, as prime minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns. LDP in Japan faces problems from aging voter base and Japan's voter shifts to nationalist parties. Ishiba faced problems rallying voters as the LDP was seen as having mostly older faces, trade issues with the US, and the cost of living economic security issues.

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U.S. oil exports are expected to average 1 million barrels a day for all of 2017. In 2016 in some months the average was 1 million barrels a day. U.S. oil exports make up 1% of global oil volumes, yet the added inventory has helped keep prices in the range of $46  to $55 a barrel in mid 2017. American crude is at a $2.50 discount over the Brent crude benchmark, making it profitable to export to far away locations. Back-haul economics also helps as tankers coming back from the middle east can now take crude back with a stop in Europe. Oil exports go to China and Europe. Production declines in China have led to China importing from the U.S.

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It is hard to imagine that one is even writing about this, as shocking as it is- the 4 or 5 minutes between a decision to launch nuclear weapons and the end of life on this planet earth as we know it. Here Sam Nunn, a U.S. senator who was part of the negotiations for arms control and who is the leading American in this field talks about the unimaginable danger. He says the strategy from the Cold War where Russia and the U.S. put their nuclear forces in a position to be launched within minutes, 4 to 5 minutes, is outdated and needs to be changed. Hillary Clinton described the issue in the television debate. Yet this was not discussed because of the nature of the 2016 presidential election with lack of serious discussion.  And both Nunn and Clinton emphasize that once the missiles are in the air they cannot be ordered to go back. Accidental error, judgemental error, informational error in which one side thinks the other has launched a missile, a firing by mistake, are possible. In this situation Nunn says Trump is temperamentally unfit, and Clinton is fit to take on the responsibility. Yet the question this raises is as Nunn signals- is anyone but God fit to make this decision to launch nuclear weapons. Nunn says it is outdated and wrong to have only a few minutes, as such a decision cannot be made in a few hours or days, much less in 5 minutes. Nunn brings up a discussion he had in Moscow when he brought this up with Russians and president Putin. Russian president Putin told Nunn that he was fully aware of this. Putin's response was- "Senator Nunn, at some point it becomes automatic."  Nunn does not clarify what this means, or what Putin means to say. For people on the planet it is not enough to have Reagan, Gorbachev, Clinton, as Nunn mentions being responsible people for a nuclear decision. The current state of affairs is simply shocking and the lack of attention to this is also shocking. Equally dangerous is that 20 countries have weapons usable nuclear material, and sophisticated hacking of command and control processes is another danger.       ...

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Hyundai says it can meet the 35 miles per gallon target for its automobile fleet by 2015 instead of 2020, 5 years ahead of schedule. It can do this without relying too much on hybrids, concentrating efforts in the direction of lighter materials, new engine and powertrain technologies such as direct injection, dual continuously variable valve timing, and eight speed automatic transmissions. And Hyundai can do this, says its head of R&D division, Lee Hyun-Soon, by increasing the price of the automobile by only a small amount. Lee says by increasing the cost of an automobile by a mere $100 or $200 a gain of 10% in fuel efficiency can be achieved. Meanwhile US automakers are arguing that the current requirements in a law signed by President Bush in December 2007 for 35mpg by 2020 is too stringent. The standard this year is 27.5 mpg for cars and 22.5 mpg for light trucks. See the group " Was America asleep at the spigot?"

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James McIntyre's book about Gordon Brown, (title is Power with a Purpose) who like Jimmy Carter, was more respected in retirement for doing good work humbly and not getting into a revenue generating speaker's circuit or consulting, or boards of directors of companies. McIntyre looks at his career, the involvement of Mandelson as Business Secretary, the failures of Mandelson and Blair in New Labour, and Gordon Brown's failure to revive the Labour Party. The Times says Gordon Brown has grown in stature since leaving No. 10 Downing Street. Under Blair, Brown was No.2 and headed the British Treasury as finance minister. He only became prime minister at the end of his career during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. He started the effort to redefine Labour Party after Margaret Thatcher defeated the Labour candidate from Plymouth Mr. Foot and swept out socialist Labour and the trade unions. Then followed privatization and changes in the British economy which were followed by Reagan in the US by 1980. Through this period Brown and Blair tried to create the concept of New Labour which won in landslides as Britain switched back to Labour as the alternative. As the Blair magic withered Brown was left tackling the 2009 financial crisis but failed to define what Labour was- his Business secretary was Peter Mandelson who unlike Brown was in Labour but in for his own purpose and had a cynical attitude to politics as a way to retire in some privileged business position on boards of directors. The result is well known Cameron and the conservatives who were even less qualified than an earlier generation of Conservative politicians, their decision to call the Brexit referendum, the verdict of yes on Brexit leading to Cameron's replacement by Boris Johnson, and Britain having 4 prime ministers in a span of five years as discredited austerity drive was replaced by Keir Starmer's Labour. This project with McSweeney as Starmer's campaign manager cleared Labour of socialist outlook Corbyn supporters, won in a landslide in 2024, only to fail to define the purpose for which Labour stood for and Starmer's ratings dropping to new lows of 18% support as Reform UK's Farage took up the issue of migrants and the culture that enabled migrants to enter the UK. Britain has been let down by two generations of less competent, poorly qualified for public service politicians over three decades since the 1990's- through Blair/Brown, Cameron, Boris Johnson and left struggling with Keir Starmer. Sixty years after decolonization of an Empire in the 1960's, Britain has not gained in purpose and strength, only drifting along as new powers emerge in Asia and the world changes. ...

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DW.com report by Mu Ciu shows a CATL(Contemporary Amperex Technology) plant in Arnstadt, Thuringia, in eastern Germany. It will not bridge Germany's technology gap. German and US consultants at the microeconomic level of the company and German and US economists at the macroeconomic level of the economy entirely fail to grasp the effectiveness of China's investment driven model. Of its joint partnering with European and American companies and China's single minded focus on technology access. This is why the DJT US administration has warned Europe that it is failing economically. China's macroeconomic and microeconomic model are run by the same authority by the state, and according to goals and plans (which in a socialist economy is weak at the microeconomic company level lacking the initiative and freedom of action). By combining its macreconomic framework run by the state with a micreconomic company level run by the state but on free market lines the Chinese investment driven model has dual advantages and operates at a speed that far surpasses the German and American model. It's society suffers as a consequence, but in few short decades 1990-2009/2020 this is all it could accomplish with a single focus on modernization for what was once a peasant agricultural economy. Where it lacks is in future technology access and as long as weak companies in the US and Germany partner with Chinese companies the technology access for Chinese companies give it the essential ingredient for its investment model to work, as American and European companies can waver in investment Chinese companies backed by the government will not waver in investment and have the clear advantage. DJT's approach is to give a big shock to the entire system of world trade now run by China, so that this is no longer going to work at the macroeconomic level and legislate huge investment incentives for one time depreciation and other moves to get American companies to invest. It wants Europe to do the same, including getting rid of the bureaucratic structures and regulations. German Chancellor Merz is getting the message and is acting quickly first with the trillion dollar investment plan, the meetings with Draghi and Meloni to get Italy and like minded nations on board, and internal efforts to get rid of regulations and bureaucratic structures, and building a new partnership with India to remove an error of Merkel/ Clinton+ Obama in excessive concentration and dependence on China. This requires a steady hand and steady governments, steady policy, and companies in America, Europe and India to work together for the long haul without wavering or delay, to rebuild the world economy along new lines and on a new path. ...

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Missouri and Alaska pass minimum wage laws to raise he wage from $12 to $15. California- support for minimum wage of $18 dropped from 67% in 2023 to 44% and may not pass.

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India and China agree to a legally binding deal on climate change and emissions that would be drafted by 2015, and take effect in 2020. This would bring them in line with or symmetrical with the U.S. and European countries for controlling emissions.

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Mr. Trump trashes the state of Florida and calls it "a dump" says the Editorial Board of WSJ, because of personal interest as the 2024 primaries come closer. "The real DeSantis record is one of misery and despair. He has left a wake of destruction all across Florida," is the quote from a spokesman, in a statement issued by Mr. Trump. WSJ says that is not how Floridans saw it when DeSantis was elected with 59.4% of the vote. It says Florida is a model of successful Republican governance and Republicans should be citing it as a role model, not "a dump."

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Queen Elizabeth leads tributes to the National Health Service for "the grief and loss felt by so many," as Britain pauses for a minute's silence, on the first anniversary of the lockdown of March 23, 2020. She offers flowers to St. Bart's hospital, after the recovery of Prince Phillip who was in hospital for one month for heart surgery and recovery. Pictures of a canon preparing for a outdoor garden service at Durham Cathedral, and lighting of candles at other cathedrals, offer glimpses of a solemn moment of silence, and the nurturing of hope for the recovery.

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China places a ban on imports of coal, iron ore, wine and other products from Australia. China's largest imports from Australia are in coal and iron ore of $87 billion. China has targeted Australian exports that can be alternatively sourced or are produced domestically such as coal. Australian coal exports to China declined by 90% in 2020 over the prior year. China is the largest destination for Australian wine exports of $1.2 billion. Australia's call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic and new laws to curb foreign interference have resulted in deteriorating relations with China.

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Michael Crawley has some advice for running in his new book "Out of Thin Air," describing his experiences running in the high altitude conditions of Ethiopia. There one does not run on roads but in backcountry conditions. Runners do not go fast to conserve energy in the thin air. Crawley is preparing for the Commonwealth Games in 2022. Running uphill has some special benefits during the pandemic, because of the benefits to health. And it helps to keep out distracting thoughts and just put on shoes, then get out and run. This could also apply to walking or hiking uphill in backcountry.

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Sir Kevan Williams sets forth his vision for British education recovery after coronavirus disrupted students lives. He was appointed education recovery commissioner in February 2021. Keven resigned yesterday after his 15 billion pound plan for students getting extra time at school was rejected by Boris Johnson, the British prime minister. Boris Johnson has only 3 billion pounds set aside for education recovery at what the Times cites at 50 pounds per student, compared to 1600 pounds per student in the US under president Biden. Mrs. Biden is a teacher at community college for most of her life and is a strong supporter for free education at community colleges.

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Fortunately even here there is room for optimism as male life expectancy declined by only 0.2 years from 79.2 years to 79.0 years the level in 2014. Considering the scale and intensity of this pandemic this is a sign or resilience of the UK with the work of NHS at the forefront. Female life expectancy has remained unchanged in 2020 at 82.9 years, about three years more than men.

With more consciousness about the risks of obesity, importance of nutrition and exercise habits information given wide attention, there may be some positive signs from this period that will lead to a healthier population.

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As China shifts from an economy that was built on low cost manufacturing in factories that polluted the skies and water, to an advanced economy with modern factories the nature of industry has changed. More recently the focus is on advanced technologies and increased productivity. As a result the hours worked are declining every year with modernization following the trend in western countries. There is also high unemployment of about 20% for young people. High university enrollment of about 60% means many graduates will have a hard time finding jobs in a slowing economy in 2023. With it comes a shift in attitudes to work.

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Rachel Bernhardt 28 years, is from Drexel University. She started swimming competitively late- at Drexel University and missed a lot of the early training Olympic athletes get. She is now training under longtime Northwestern University swim coach Bob Groseth who is at Queen's University in Charlotte, North Carolina. Part of the training is to focus on the technique that she did not get to develop in the early years. She has persevered through it all including a knee surgery and rehab. She now trains to be part of the US national team for the World Aquatics in Fukuoka, Japan in 2023.

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Fidel Castro dies at the age of 90 in 2016. He was a polarizing influence in Latin America. Many of the guerilla movements in Latin America originated with support from Castro's Cuba. This led to the right wing dictatorships such as Pinochet's Chile and Videla's Argentina, with dictators consolidating their rule saying they were acting in response to these guerilla movements. In Venezuela this led to the rise of  a movement that has polarized the country and led to mismanagement of the economy, even with rich natural resources unable to tackle inflation and development goals.

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British prime minister, Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May, is bringing in Dominic Cummings as a key adviser. Cummings ran the campaign for Leave in Britain's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union. Cummings now joins Johnson in trying to tackle getting Britain out of the EU in 3 months by an October 31, 2019 deadline. Cummings is also the man he will rely on if a general election ensues following its loss of support in parliament. At present there is only a 3 vote majority for Johnson's government in parliament and lack of support from moderates in the ruling Conservative party.

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German attitudes of caution towards the coronavirus. This caution extends to facial coverings and social distancing guidelines. About 89% say they wash hands more often. 88% say they keep a clear distance from others. And 72% say they meet friends and relatives only to a limited extent. Survey is by Infratest dimap conducted for ARD the public broadcaster. That caution has helped Germany, and is being followed in Italy and France. It is in sharp contrast to parts of the U.S. and in places such as Texas where masks became mandatory in public  spaces only on July 3, 2020. 

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As the coronavirus hits the economy and money markets, not even gold and safe bonds are places people are turning to. The shortest term bonds and cash have become important. Short term money markets are strained and companies are drawing down on their credit facilities while they can be accessed. From the view of small business or big business it is liquidity and cash that matters now. People and businesses need cash to cover rent, fixed costs, other bills. Small businesses have less room for error and need to plan carefully. The dollar is surging against all other currencies. This is the situation on March 18, 2020.