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A Washington Post poll in September 2016 shows some surprising results with Clinton competitive in Texas and Arizona, long red states. It shows Trump's appeal to older white voters helping him in Iowa and Ohio. Clinton has a slight lead in Michigan. Clinton also leads in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado, and also in Florida.  As the race gets closer with about 50 days left Clinton's lead of 8-9 points is now about 4 points. Most striking this time compared to 2012 is that Clinton is polling way ahead with college educated voters. A race with libertarian candidate Johnson shows him getting 15% of the vote in 15 states narrowing Clinton's advantage, but also putting pressure on Trump to win undecided voters. Clinton has consolidated the Democratic vote better than Trump with 90% support in 32 states compared to Trump's above that in only 13 states, a key weakness because of dividing the Republican vote with Trump's crude and blatant attacks during the primaries that have left some Republicans thoroughly alienated. Unlike any previous election this one is dividing the vote based on gender and education. A big additional difference is college educated white women where the gap is the widest seen in any election- a 23 point lead for Clinton with white college educated women nationwide. In the midwest Michigan still has a history of voting Democratic especially after the auto industry rescue by Obama. Demographic changes not mentioned here also play a part such as in Colorado and Nevada long time red states. A Clinton edge in Texas is the most surprising result in the entire poll results showing the old red state blue state division is now replaced by women, minorities and college degrees as the dividing line. Part of the reason for this is that the losses due to globalization. And in this respect Clinton does better than Obama, but not as well as Merkel in Germany who has also suffered with people who lost out in globalization but not to the extent of Obama, and to a lesser degree than Obama for Clinton. Enough minority support, Republican support, and blue collar support, in addition to women voters,  may be the difference for Clinton in Texas. The other factor is the advertising campaign funding and the national security issue, on which Clinton does better than Obama in the latter a key factor in red states, and is similar to Obama in the former to tackle midwestern states. Such as Michigan and Wisconsin, liberal in history but with large shifting blue collar votes. Hurt by globalization, but in the case of Michigan helped by the Democrats rescue of the auto industry. In a way this could bring the country together after Obama with the disappearing North-South or red state blue state division, and with enough union or working class white support for Clinton in addition to dominant college educated voters to form a new coalition of support compared to a predominantly red state white state division of Obama years based on the minority vote.  ...

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Jose de Cordoba of the WSJ provides this excellent story on the nature of the migration crisis in the U.S. that is creating political divisions in the U.S. What is causing this surge in migration to the U.S.? Cordoba provides some useful insights to understand the nature of this problem. Nine out of ten migrants in Guatemala which sends most of the migrants from Central America are moving north from Guatemala through Mexico to the U.S. for financial reasons, it points out. Only 10% are because of violence in the region, the rest for financial reasons according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration The jump in apprehension of Guatemalans at the American border shows a surge from 15,000 in 2007 to 236,000 in 9 months of 2019, according to U.S. government data. The surge began in 2008 and jumped in 2014 after U.S. court rulings that first required migrant children to be allowed to join relatives in the U.S. followed by a ruling in 2015 that allowed a parent to join the children and allowed court proceedings to take place that takes years. The result was that smugglers advertised on radio and families sold small plots of land to join relatives in the U.S. who had gone before them. The migration is also specific to certain areas hit by damage to crops, including coffee crop from drought, or certain towns that simply sent more people simply for financial reasons advertised openly.  For 8 hours of work a migrant could make at $12 per hour amount of $96 per day, in Guatemala the daily wage would be about $5.  Overwhelmingly it is financial reasons or economic opportunity that sends migrants north. After it became known that kids could help migration the people in family groups apprehended at the border jumped from about 40,000 in 2015 to 390,000 in fiscal 2019. Smugglers charge $8600 per adult and half that for a child and an adult that can be dropped off at a checkpoint. The efforts of president Trump to close the border to this migration include having Mexico sign an agreement to police its southern border with Guatemala using its newly setup National Guard. As a result the migration has actually surged in 2019 with migrants seeing this as their one last opportunity to join relatives in the U.S. or to migrate to the U.S. The Trump administration tried separating families because of the loophole in the law that allows children to be not deported and parents to join their children. But this created a public outcry and the effort now is to close the loophole in the law. It is also strange that as many migrants are coming from one town Joyabaj  with population 100,000 as from Guatemala City the capital population 2.5 million. In fact the economy has grown by 3.4 % a year in Guatemala and efforts have been made to improve conditions with the help of donor countries in the West for several years, though the drought conditions exist. The situation is similar to that in Europe. If one looks at the violence by gangs in central American region after the end of the guerilla wars and compares it to the wars in Syria and Iraq, one can see how humanitarian concerns preceded what eventually turned out tobe a full blown migration for economic reasons. Initially chancellor Merkel adopted a humanitarian stance but failed to recognize that there was another side to his situation that would attract a wave of economic migrants from places as far apart as North Africa to Afghanistan. Poverty has existed in these regions for many many years before the current migration, with drought and lack of economic opportunity going far back in time. Merkel only recently recognized this problem and the new CDU leader Kambrauer has clearly recognized this. CDU policy shifted in 2018-2019 with curbs on economic migration that has reduced it to a trickle. This process is underway in the U.S. at its border with Mexico and for Mexico with its border with Guatemala. In the short run Europe and the U.S. are paying a price. Not just in the way it has divided each country with a far left and a far right eroding the centrist parties that existed before. In some cases centrist parties that were popular on the right and the left now hve leaders from a far right or a far left faction within the centrist ruling parties. Boris Johnson in Britain, Trump in the U.S., leaders in Italy, Austria and Hungary. Or as in Germany and Spain new far left or far right parties causing the centrist parties to dwindle in influence or as in Germany this combined with a shift to the Green Party in Germany and Liberals Party in Britain as a show of disapproval for how the migration issue has been tackled.  The Economist in a July 2019 issue also points out that the country's own citizens have fared worse with migration. It shows how the Conservative Party's austerity cuts for welfare budgets was popular in Britain as long as eastern European migration at high levels in Britain were allowed starting with the Labour party under Blair. This disproportionately hurt the middle class and the poor after the hit already taken from the faulty banking caused recession. With the drop in migration it is now felt by a majority in Britain that the austerity cuts have just gone too far and a mood is set in to restore many of the cuts and fund public services. Meantime some of the damage has been done and will take a decade to correct as the issues that mangled the centrist parties and led to fragmentation on views of what society should look like have taken place with Brexit and high levels of poverty, income inequality in Britain, lack of investment in infrastructure with overallocation to tech with declining productive benefit for every additional dollar spent. ...

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Dana Milbank describes how every other candidate on the podium took on Donald Trump in the second Republican presidential debate for the 2016 primaries. She says Bush's version is correct about turning down Trump's effort to start casino gambling in Florida, which he turned down. Trump clashed with Fiorina, Christie, Ron Paul and other candidates, who did not hestitate to say in plain terms what they saw Trump doing with his indiscriminate attacks.

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New discoveries by Hamm's Continental Resources, could change the way the U.S. thinks about oil and natural gas. After years of OPEC dependence, the U.S. could become energy sufficient by 2020. His company pioneered the search for oil and natural gas in the Bakken fields in the Great Plains. The U.S. Geological Survey says Bakken has 4-5 billion barrels of oil. Hamm says the entire field, fully developed, holds 24 billion barrels.

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Bank lending is recovering in parts of the midwest from Cedar Rapids, Iowa to Madison, Wisconsin not hit hard by the housing crisis, but lags far behind in California and Florida. Between 2006 and 2011, a WSJ survey using data from Moody's Analytics and Equifax shows bank lending declining in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles by 38%, 44%, and 55%. Overall U.S. consumer loan originations declined by 40% from 2006 to 2011.

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Kirkpatrick and Erlanger's interview with Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi. He says successive U.S. governments used taxpayer money to buy the dislike and hatred of peoples in the region by backing governments run by corrupt dictators who suppressed popular opposition. Morsi calls for a new attitude from the American people and Arab people of mutual respect of each other's cultures, and recalls his own days studying engineering at the University of Southern California.

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Bob Woodward's recent book "The Price of Politics," gives an inside account of how the Obama White House handled the U.S. deficit crisis. In an intervew on Bloomberg television channel, Woodward told Charlie Rose President Obama showed a lack of leadership in using his presidential authority to pull together various points of view for an agreement. Obama failed to provide presidential leadership in achieving the needed compromise, as past presidents had done.

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The town of Akcakale near a border crossing which was taken over by the Free Syria Army has an Arab population and is friendly to the Sunni opposition. The feeling here is that it was hit deliberately by the Assad regime because of ties with the Free Syria Army. The government of prime minister Erdogan in Turkey has gained parliamentary approval for war powers to enter foreign countries after the shelling of Akcakale.

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Nahm says the most important quality for a person doing a startup is passion. With this should come a clarity of vision which helps him or her focus on one thing that can create something that stands out, without getting diverted in many directions. He also believes a questioning and observant mindset is important, as a person doing a startup has to respond to what is happening outside by searching without having any preconceived ideas.

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Klee, along with Chagall, Kokoschka, and Picasso were painters shown at the Venice Biennale in 1948 following the war, and were commended for their efforts in defending cultural freedom in western Europe during a dark period. His paintings are now shown at the National Gallery of Modern Art in Italy in 2013 in a special exhibition- "Paul Klee and Italy." Klee trained in Munich, Germany, in 1898, and was part of the Blaue Reiter group.

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Peter Eavis adds his voice to other experts who think there is arisk associated with the stress tests giving bank stocks a big buy signal, with the government giving its seal of approval to the banks. What is the worst case scenarios in the stress tests comes out to be true, what if things deteriorate further from that point, would not the confidence generated evaporate, and the government lose credibility with investors?

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George Osborne of the Conservative Party on Britain's finances, with deficit at 13% of GDP in 2009 and debt expected to reach 100% of GDP in 2014, says Britain has borrowed too much and is sinking in a sea of debt. His program points to tax cuts for Britain's financial district as he says everyone is being asked to sacrifice so much. It also means cutting spending on social services and public sector wage freezes.

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Amitabh Kant reflects on his 6 years at Niti Ayog planning for development in India. He says energy transition is an important part of development for India. The integration of India as a major part of a new supply chain for the free world is a critical part of India's development. Kant talks about the aspirational districts program that covers transformation of the lives of 80% of India's people living in 112 districts. Moving India up by 79 positions on the World Bank Ease of Doing Business rankings is also one of the tasks he looks back at with a sense of achievement. Parmeswaran Iyer who headed the Swachh Bharat and Jal Jeevan Missions will now be new head of NIti Aayog, the organization that is driving India's development to 2030 and 2040. Niti Ayog stands for National Institute for Transforming India. Its pillars are- 1. Pro-people  2. Pro-Activity  3.Participation 4. Empowering 5. Inclusion of All 6. Equality 7. Transparency It has a maximum of 4 members. Suman Bery is vice chairperson appointed in March 2022. The members are appointed by the prime minister. It is different from the earlier Planning Commissions under Nehru in that it does the work of being a think tank yet the allocation of funds and decisions come under the prime minister and the finance ministry. ...

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Mental health is no longer an issue during the pandemic and its aftermath just for a few. It has assumed a mainstream character. Here in this NYT report one finds the Surgeon General of the United States, Vivek Murthy, describe his problems with mental health. To create an awareness among the public that it is important to pay attention to what may be lost in a overly large focus on work or business, ignoring the social signals whose importance may not be realized till much later. As Surgeon General he says he simply focused on work and did not pay attention to the simple social interactions that help one relate to other people, and knowing about other people's lives that add a new dimension to living.  In Lyrarc during the pandemic we described the German mental health practice of Feierabend of consciously breaking away from work- especially remote work that lacks preset boundaries- so that by 5 or 6 pm one just calls it a day. At that point going out for a bike ride or walk or some activity in the outdoors that helps revive mind and spirit in ways that keep good health. It also prepares one for the next day's activity, to be able to approach it feeling refreshed and invigorated. ...

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Changes that president Biden is making to make certain that students who took out a loan of $30,000 for college do not end up paying for two decades, and be still owing $60,000. WSJ explains that the original student loan law written decades ago does not take into account the realities of today as young people are forced into long repayment plans and still cannot complete payment. President Biden has stated that no student loan borrower would be expected to pay more than 5% of his or her income for student loan payments each month. This helps student borrowers across the country and makes college education affordable. Most Americans have failed to realize the importance of higher education and its affordability for the US economy, the US ability to compete with China, India and the EU, and the damage done to US education by outdated laws. The general failure to support education and its affordability has come at a great cost to the US economy and its strength in the world, similar to the damage done by the neglect of manufacturing and communities across America that depend on good manufacturing jobs. The failures of laissez faire theory under Reagan and it becoming part of exiting culture leading to lack of government support for education, manufacturing, and infrastructure has weakened America and neglected communities across the country. ...

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Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Ali Sabry is interviewed by The Hindu. Ali Sabry says he is "very, very confident" about the Adani Group's investments in Sri Lanka's renewable energy potential, and any drop in Adani stock value is not affecting the projects. Sabry says the Adani Group is already investing in its projects, which include the $700 million Colombo West Container Port Project. He met with India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in New Delhi at the Raisina Dialogue Conference. He was asked about his role as Foreign Minister after working as Finance Minister.  "It is still a mix of both, as I still have to carry out some of the responsibilities in debt restructuring and economic diplomacy, because the President is the finance minister, and naturally he cannot travel as often as we would like." "We are not out of the woods but stabilized right now, and what we are looking at next is recovery, for which we need investment. So right now, what we are interested in with India is how to collaborate and how to integrate with the Indian economy, particularly with South India, in terms of investment, people to people connection, more tourists coming in. So that's the kind of thing it is it's a win win situation for all." ...

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Angela Merkel left Germany dangerously dependent on Russia for energy supplies that may simply be shut off after maintenance on the Nordstream pipeline. She did even worse on China says this report in The Times that says that it leaves Germany on the hook for billions. There are $200 billion of German investments in China and German business concern is snowballing with new restrictions on operations in China and the deteriorating business sentiment. Worse the entire supply chain for solar energy and other renewable energy products to tackle climate change is dependent on Chinese components. Another failure to prepare for the future under different scenarios. And 46% of German business have supply lines that include components made in China. By grossly underestimating the risks of such dangerous dependence on Russia and on China, and ignoring warnings from the US, Merkel has hit Germany's new elected government of Scholz, Baerbock and Habeck with very serious problems that may take the next five to ten years to sort out. On energy and how to build a whole new supply chain in Asia with the US and its allies Japan, India and other countries. The ultimate irony was that Merkel felt that she was the leader of the free world, and a free world that excluded the US and India. Such is folly. And how she was presented as a good leader in the media is today hard to comprehend. ...

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This obituary for FW De Klerk looks back at the dismantling of race based rule of Apartheid in South Africa in 1992, the release of Nelson Mandela, and elections in 1994 through universal franchise. This was done by the son of a schoolteacher in the Transvaal region who rose to the top through the provincial leadership. De Klerk took the actions to bring racial harmony after growing up as an Afrikkaner and working in the local politics of the National Party that introduced Apartheid rule. Before 1989 reforms in the Botha government left black people on 13% of the worst land in the country, tribal homelands in which they did not even live in, in a distorted form of representation. Limited representation was given to Indian ethnic minorities and colored people.  All this changed between 1992 and 1994 after De Klerk assumed leadership of the National Party and the government in 1989. This required great courage and statesmanship, and vision from De Klerk to set the foundations for a multiracial society that even Margaret Thatcher and Reagan failed to grasp and promote. De Klerk died in 2020. For Mandela the path was clear, for De Klerk the path had to be forged out of nothing and against the natural instincts of his own party. This saved south Africa to become a true multi racial society with respect for the rule of law and democracy. ...

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PM Modi makes changes in his cabinet of ministers with new ministers brought in and some ministers in the current cabinet asked to leave. Javadekar  in Information and Broadcasting ministry, Harsh Vardhan at the Health Ministry, and Ravi Shankar Prasad at IT and Law ministry, Ramesh Pokhriyal at HRD were replaced. Seven cabinet ministers were replaced including social justice and empowerment, and chemicals and fertilizers. Jaishankar at Ministry of External Affairs, Rajnath Singh at Defense, and Sitharaman at Finance, Amit Shah at Home are in the core of ministers who will continue in their roles. Dharmendra Pradhan is new Education minister, Mansukh Mandavia in charge of Health and chemicals and fertilizers, Kiran Rijjuju is Law minister, Giriraj Singh new Rural Development minister. Ashwini Vaishnaw from the IAS is the new Minister of Railways. The main idea of these changes is to bring in younger ministers and give them 3 years of experience before the next parliamentary elections, and to replace ministers who have not accomplished much. Some appointments such as the civil aviation ministry went to persons who supported the state government in Madhya Pradesh, and similar appointments for Bihar. A Dalit leader Virender Kumar is the new Social Justice and Empowerment minister, and this is a way to increase the support in the OBC or backward caste communities which get greater participation.     ...

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On September 26 Germany holds a general election to decide who will lead Germany after Merkel. Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats is seen as personally popular for his work in government with 48% support in recent polls, with Armin Laschet of the Christian Democrats at 24% and Annalena Baerbock at 27%. The Social Democrats poll 24% and are expected to form a government with the Greens at 16% and the FDP party. Baerbock of the Greens and Armin Laschet of the Christian Democrats have lost support in recent weeks with the floods and other events. The figures are from Deutschlandtrend poll by Infratest dimap Institute.  The CDU of Merkel looks less likely to form a government under leadership of Armin Laschet today compared to a few months before. Merkel is still popular with most Germans but this support does not carry over to Armin Laschet. There may also be some sense among Germans that it is time for a change in government after the Merkel years even though she is personally popular. The difficulties imposed by the pandemic on the German people, and the added problems of the floods could lead voters to look for change in government under new leadership more sensitive to the problems of today- infrastructure, employment participation of people held back by the pandemic, and rebuilding healthcare, education, childcare systems, tackling climate change issues. ...

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The exceptional role played by US president Biden in ensuring the recovery of the US economy, reaching both low unemployment and bringing down inflation was made possible by the president's conviction that the bargaining power of labor and its share in the productive wealth of the economy needed to be restored. The chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers Jared Bernstein points this out in his speech at the Petersen Institute of International Economics. Bernstein points out that the Philips Curve which shows the tradeoff between reducing unemployment and increasing inflation is essentially flat and the president was right to push for full employment at between 3.5-4%. In the post Reagan era America was reduced to trickle down economics as president Biden has said at every State of the Union leading to a situation where workers had lost their bargaining power. See this as a resilience factor R in the economy which if it falls below a certain point leads to the economy operating well below its potential with high unemployment and worker incomes depressed. This strong conviction of the president and the efforts of the Fed chairman Powell have helped America recover from the pandemic faster than Europe, China and other countries, and is opening a path to meet the challenges of the future including infrastructure development and overcoming climate change, and meeting needs in healthcare and education, ease of living. ...

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A more fundamental difference comes from health, mental health, worklife, wellbeing that are essential to healthy living. Taking care of one's health comes before everything because there is no quality of life without good health and well being. One can see this in the contrast of the styles of Carlos Tavares who is current CEO of Stellantis which includes Fiat Chrysler and the CEO of Fiat Chrysler Sergio Marchionne. Carlos Tavares comes across as an example of healthy living and healthy living practices at Stellantis, Marchionne and Elon Musk are a big contrast and appear not to care about practices essential for healthy living and healthy worklife. Proven over and over again and over time humility and respect for the dignity of others matters,Tavares and others like him leaders who have humility, respect the dignity of workers, listen to their managers, and support healthy worklife practices that enhance productivity, are the real role models for young people in business, in America and in the World. Media loves hype, yet for ordinary managers and workers in factories health and healthy living is what matters uppermost. It is also true for their children in how they choose their role models and for America as a Nation, the values the World respects America for and is willing for America take the lead. After the pandemic this is more true than ever.  ...

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Republican candidate Trump wins 51% of the vote in Iowa to De Santis 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Trump won among evangelical voters with 58% support. In cities his vote declined. In Story County home to Iowa State University in Ames, it was 34%, and in Johnson County where University of Iowa is located 36% supported Trump. In 2024 18percentage points separate Mr. Trump's support in low levels of college or post secondary education to higher levels of college or post secondary education. In 2016 Mr. Trump received 29% of the vote in low college education areas to 22% of the vote in high college education areas- a spread of 7 percentage points. Iowa is a state with a large farm and agriculture sector. Other states with manufacturing in the midwest tended to move away from Democrats in 2016. Some of this momentum has reversed with union support for Mr. Biden who has taken a pro-union stance in a way that is not matched by any Democrat since FDR and Harry Truman in the 1930's to 1950's. The shift of Clinton to globalism and Obama to tech companies cost Democrats heavily in 2016 with workers in manufacturing- something that is reversed in drastic ways since 2020 with Mr. Biden on the picket line at UAW union auto strikes in Michigan. ...

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Set a big goal, achieve it and set an even bigger goal- this is the way the PM is setting out to tackle the challenge of Vikshit or Developed Bharat by 2047. 2024 is next step followed by plan to 2030. PM Modi highlights important aspects of the Budget in his comments on the Indian Budget for 2024. The detailed Budget will come after a new government is formed. This provides an outline of the government's key priorities and investment in priorities. The focus is on the youth the next generation for opportunities, the farmers, the poor and the middle class. Investment will increase by 11% in 2024 over the prior year with expenditures of 1.1 million crores. Targets are set for delivering in housing from 40 million houses delivered to add 20 million more houses, for women setting up small business from 20 million lakhpatis to add 10 million more lakhpatis.  For the youth research and innovation budget capital allocation of $1 billion. Manufacturing of 40,000 railway bogies or railcars for the new Vande Bharat trains. Roof Top Solar campaign will give 10 million families free electricity as well as income of Rs 18,000 to sell surplus energy to the electric grid. Income tax remission for 10 million families. ...

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Speaking at the Brookings Institution Biden senior adviser Jake Sullivan laid out the "foreign policy of America's middle class." What he means by this is "President Biden's core commitment- indeed his daily direction to us- to more deeply integrate domestic policy with foreign policy." "After the Second War the United States led a fragmented world to create a new international economic order. It lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. It sustained thrilling technological revolutions. And it helped the United States and many other nations around the world achieve new levels of prosperity. But the last few decades revealed cracks in these foundations. A shifting global economy left many Americans and their communities behind. A financial crisis shook the middle class. A pandemic exposed the fragility of our supply chains. A changing climate threatened lives and livelihoods. Russia's invasion of Ukraine underscored the risks of overdependence. So this moment demands we forge a new consensus." "When president Biden took office the coutnry from our perspective faced four fundamental challenges. First America's industrial base had been hollowed out. Second economic integration with a large non-market economy did not work out. Third, an accelerating climate crisis, and the urgent need for a just and efficient energy transition. Finally we met the challenge of inequality and its damage to democracy."   ...