LyrArc Article Gist
The firing of John Bolton as National Security Adviser opens up the possibility of a meeting of Trump with President Rouhani of Iran. There is a need for both sides to begin talks on a nuclear deal that would replace the one Iran signed with president Obama to address issues raised by Mr. Trump and Republicans. Iran and countries that buy oil from Iran such as India, China and Japan have an interest in relief from sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on imports of Iranian oil. The European Union is keen to preserve aspects of the nuclear deal. Relief from sanctions is critical for Iran to develop its economy. The last two decades have seen Iran struggle to develop its economy with the sanctions imposed by  different U.S. administrations.   President Trump expressed flexibility on sanctions saying "we will see what happens. I think Iran has potential. They are incredible people." President Rouhani urged Mr. Trump "to put warmongers aside." Mr. Trump told reporters that he had resisted Mr. Bolton's opinions on issues and realized he had moderate views when compared to someone like Bolton.  Trump told Iran "We are not looking for regime change. We hope we can make a deal and if we can't make a deal thats fine too. But I think they have to make a deal." Helping the U.S. and Iran come to talks is president Macron of France who hopes to setup a meeting at the UN General Assembly which meets next week following his efforts at the G-7 meeting in France last month. In the past when tensions were high in the Straits of Hormuz President Trump refrained from aggravating this by saying actions that are "disproportionate" should not be taken and respected Iranian intentions. The tone of the conversation between the two sides has moderated to the point where both sides realize the need for coming to some compromise. This is in sharp contrast to the period a few months ago with rising tensions in the Straits of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian ship. Bolton's opinions were not the only issue for president Trump. He was also seen as the source of leaks including one that said Mike Pence, the Vice President, had opposed Mr. Trump's plan to bring the Taliban to Camp David. Also contributing to the new climate for talks is Mike Pompeo the Secretary of State, who has promoted the idea of talks with Iran. He told the media about such a meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York- "Sure. The president has made it very clear that he is prepared to meet with no pre-conditions." The willingness to try new ideas even contrary ones to policy pursued only a short while ago as long as the desired goal is reached is a feature of this presidency and key advisers. From the beginning of the Trump administration there is a firm sense of the need to end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. and reduce foreign entanglements that have dragged on wasting resources and destroying priorities. With a willingness to try all sorts of approaches even ones that appear to be contradictory always keeping the end goal in sight. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Geeta Anand and Jaeyeon Woo of the WSJ give this heartwarming story of how South Korea achieved a remarkable transformation in attitudes towards women in society after 1990, and reversed a dangerous imbalance in the ratio of females to males. This was done by the release of extraordinary energy of woman activists after the end of dictatorship in 1990 made this possible, and the efforts of media, courts, government and society. Women won the right to be heirs in the family lineage, and perceptions of women as well as the opportunities open to women changed in this period. Today the Korean government provides $177 a month for the first 5 years for child care at home. The story of one mother and daughter and their experiences, of Ms. Lim and Ms. Ko, both teaching at the university and having daughters only, shows how South Korea has changed by 2016. Moving further South Korea's government now offers incentives to companies to make paternity leave policies generous, with municipal governments adding cooking classes and housekeeping courses for fathers. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Writing your own narrative when it comes to failures at work is suggested by experts. In the second of a series of Podcasts on How we Work the WSJ looks at failures at work and how they are processed in people's minds. Failures can be seen as experiences that teach, lessons that can be learned from failures so that one can do better next time. In this podcast WSJ gives an interview with Minh Lee, author of Pachinko. The first line of the book is "History has failed us. It doesn't matter." Asked to explain she says the way history is written it simply has winners and losers, but for ordinary people this does not matter as they go on with their lives and try to make the best of things. She also talks about recognition and how important it is. Minh says leaning into ones competence is an easy way to become impervious to failures. It is only when one goes out of one's competence does one experience what is called failure but is really an effort, one effort in a series of efforts, an effort that teaches one lessons that one can apply in the next effort which puts one in a position to gain better results. It is a process of continuous improvement in which one is readily trying new things. Now compare this with one leaning into one's competence and not experiencing what is called failure, yet at the same time not having tried anything new and exciting or feeling the thrill of adventure. Just to take Minh Lee's line one step further. Civilizations fail. How? When a people or society is losing its sense of adventure and severely censors and restricts trying new things you have the absence of a Renaissance. The Renaissance in Europe put it way ahead of Asia, with observation and experimenting above theory and textbooks, and set it up for the Industrial Revolution which started in England. By this time civilizations that never adventured on the seas, never adventured out of their little line of known competence, the civilizations on the Ganges in India and the Yangste in China failed and collapsed. So there are larger lessons to be learned and this also tells us that a lot more is at stake than one's own individual so called failures and so called successes at Work, and in the adventure of life. One ignores so called failure in first efforts because this is what the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution has taught us to keep trying new things till they work, and to patiently work through these efforts which may take some time, as all good work is arduous and filled with endeavours. In the oceanic adventures of Spain and Britain that discovered  America and Australia there were were difficult voyages that set the path open to those that followed. Captain Cook discovered Australia in his ship "Endeavour" in this way, opening the way to the settlement of a continent. He led the scientific mission for the British Navy on a voyage that lasted 3 years 1770 to 1773 when he returned to Dover from Botany Bay on the Australian mainland.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Apple iWatch sales are about 11 million -15 million units in last 4 quarters. The iWatch sales are a small fraction of sales overall. Apple quarterly profit declines by 22.5%, as revenue declines and iPhone sales decline. Half of the quarterly revenue decline comes from China. This has hurt the share price by May 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
Kevin Maurer looks back at 15 years of covering Afghanistan since 2004, and asks was it worth it.  The conflict has cost 145,000 lives for the U.S. period of the war alone. Not counting the war in which the Russians were involved in the decade before the U.S. involvement. In fact the Russian involvement in Afghanistan was costly enough to hasten the collapse of the Soviet Union and bring Gorbachev to power to unwind the war and make the changes that led to the collapse of the Berlin Wall.  2400 U.S. servicemen dead and 20,000 Americans wounded. The cost to the U.S. is $737 billion for this war, according to a report in 2018 from Brown University's Costs of War Project. Just as the Soviet Union showed the damage from this war the U.S. has seen the cost of this war and foreign entanglement in another war that started accidentally with international interventions in the Iran-Iraq region as a cost that was borne with consequences. This includes the neglect of infrastructure and the damage to the middle class prosperity built up in the 1950's and 1960's after the Second World War. The U.S. got into this war with 9/11 attacks on New York City. By 2010 what began as a war fought by a few Special Operations teams turned into a war with troop levels reaching 100,000. Presidents Bush and Obama both failed to end the war by winning it. In 2014 finally combat operations stopped and American troops mainly conducted anti-terrorism operations and trained Afghan forces. In recent years the war has gradually disappeared from the national discussion in the U.S. and is barely talked about. President Trump wants to end the war even if it means talking to the Taliban and negotiations directly with the Taliban are ongoing.  One result of this war is the aversion to costly international entanglements and the highly unpopular nature of the conflicts. There are serious costs of the conflict in terms of neglected domestic priorities including infrastructure, loss of U.S. technological edge in key industries, and the competition from China, an the investments in health, education, services that were not made, the increase in inequalities and the diminishing of the middle class. The global financial crisis of 2008, the result of faulty banking, added an economic dimension through the loss of middle class savings in the U.S., worsening the financial situation of the middle class in the U.S.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A less known political leader, Albert Hernandez, who teaches university law classes, is now set to become the next president of Argentina. He has worked with Peronist party under the Kirchner administrations and quit Christina Kirchner's administration after some disagreements on policies.  He is so far ahead of president Macri- sixteen points in the primary, that it is seen as too much of a gap for Macri to reverse. Hernandez is seen as a pragmatic leader and has as his running mate Christina Kirchner. Ms. Kirchner says she supports Hernandez as he can bring together all the Peronist factions. Mr. Hernandez is 60 years old and has worked with Peronist leaders in government from the 1990's who supported free market changes and with the Kirchner administrations when Argentina was recovering from economic collapse. Hernandez says he is learning from the mistakes made by Christina Kirchner. During the administration of Nestor Kirchner, Christina's husband, Hernandez, who was chief of staff, acted as a key problem solver. Argentina faced a crisis in debt accumulation and defaulted on the debt during that period around 2003. Argentina recovered from that crisis with the help of a commodities boom and demand from China. Mr. Hernandez was also chief of staff under Christina Kirchener who followed her husband as president, but resigned early because of differences on economic policy. Today debt accumulation is again a problem, with debt built up under the Macri administration and errors in policy of Mr. Macri. Christina Kirchner asked Hernandez to lead the ticket after it was clear that Peronist factions who did not support her could only come together if Mr Hernandez was the candidate. As a moderate without ideological tendency Mr. Hernandez was able to lead a broader coalition after errors in economic policy made by Mr. Macri leading to high inflation and a declining economy. Mr. Hernandez says he would renegotiate a deal with the IMF for a $57 bailout, which was signed by Mr. Macri to tackle a currency crisis. He also plans to take a new look at the trade deal with the European Union. Today both Brazil and Argentina are mired in economic crisis. Brazil through extravagant spending including on pensions, that left basic sanitation services, transport services, health care  poorly funded. Argentina has gone from prosperity to crisis, before 2003 during the first Kirchner administration, and now under Mr. Macri in 2019. Recurrent economic crises are a regular pattern in the region since 1950, with the region dependent on commodities exports and failing to build manufacturing industries.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Concern about stimulus spending for infrastructure. Are the best projects being funded? Are some projects that are shovel ready but not the ones we should be doing first going to get done before other essential projects. The lack of acoherent plan for rebuilding the nation's crumbling infrastrure of roads, bridges and highways. Martin Feldstein says that this recession will last longer than others, so the stimulus spending even if slow will show its impact in 2010 and 2011.

LyrArc Article Gist
Artists from Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China give different interpretations of the period from the Opium Wars in 1842 to the rise of Communist China at an exhibition of art in Hong Kong, March 23- May 10, 2015.

LyrArc Article Gist
  As policies moderate, and policy action delivers results such as stopping the war on Ukraine, rebuilding the US Navy, and trade that brings back jobs, fentanyl deaths near zero with CMC (Canada, Mexico and China) forced to stop fentanyl flows, the small slippage in DJT support from federal workers in Republican districts and losses to business from wide deportation could reverse. DJT's first 100 days with strong action from the start, given the 2 year window before a possible Democrat takeover of the House and letting out the frustration on border policies of the Biden administration, are taking the Nation by surprise. Immigration policy on illegal migration is supported generally in the US except where it reduces customers to small businesses for fear of deportation such as occupational therapy.  Government employees who voted for DJT are uncertain about their jobs and are a group that is taken aback by the speed and action on cutting the government federal bureaucracy of 2 million workers. Many federal workers are spread out in the 51 states and many are in Republican or Republican leaning districts. With some slippage DJT approval is now at 47%, and slightly higher disapproval at 51%. As a result these two groups are moving away from supporting DJT in the first 100 days. Some who still support him outside these two groups are expressing disapproval of action coming this early and forcefully, yet support the overall policy agenda on immigration and cutting spending. There is also a small yet vocal group that supported RFK Jr. and this group remains energized by his promise to take action on health. Others who wanted strong action on immigration to reverse errors of Biden policies for illegal migrant entry and dispersal across America remain committed to DJT policy.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In 1998 at the beginning of the effort by President Zemin to boost higher education, Chinese universities and colleges produced 800,000 college graduates. The number is now 6 million and growing. The economy does not produce enough professional jobs in fields like finance, accounting, computer programming. And graduates from third tier schools fare worse in the job market. Between 2003 and 2009 wages for migrant workers increased 80%, yet wages for college graduates actually decreased after inflation. About 100,000 graduates crowd into parts of Beijing struggling with the jobs they can find. One political scientist says college education has provided these people with nothing and they could be a source of instability in an economic crisis.

LyrArc Article Gist
Most of the world's poor still live in India, China, Brazil and Zoellick sees the need to continue working in these countries to help them meet the challenges of the environment, of the the need for development in rural areas, challenges in meeting health care and so on.

LyrArc Article Gist
If there is no good succession in Medvedev's view the economic and social development of Russia will slow down significantly, for this reason the First Deputy Prime Minister under Putin puts a lot of significance on getting a good leader in place to continue the development progress of recent years. It is interesting that the thought process behind the remarks shows that the person has reflected a lot on these things, on leadership and good succession and its role in development, on a government and the importance of a good constitution and getting the best out of it, on studying the experience of other countries and being aware of their historical development, the role of a national leader, the constitution and everybody abiding by it, on corruption and its presence in latent and other forms and its different character in different societies. He talks about the importance of a Presidential system for Russia with strong presidential power, and the complete unsuitability of a parliamentary republic for Russia because it appears that the government could end up being weak with a many party coalition, especially in Russia at this time where there are many parties and factions each would be jockeying for power. Coalition governments would not accomplish much leading to stalled economic and social development. Manufacturing is very important to Russia, and adding a high portion of the value added to products is very important,  that Medvedev understands. It appears he has reflected on a lot of things that matter to Russia's development, and would make a different kind of President than Putin. He just might carry forward Russia's development for the next 8 years in a proper manner. From the standpoint of oil prices and availability of supplies, a good environment for cooperation in the energy sector between foreign companies and Russian companies, it appears that Medvedev would offer good leadership for the next 8 years in a Medvedev- Putin combination as President and Prime Minister, a Medvedev-Putin administration. This would also be true in the manufacturing sector in the expanding industries like automobiles and others. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

LyrArc Article Gist
Adam Bryant's exceptional piece that provides the essence of the Qualcomm Way. Qualcomm CEO Steven Mollenkompf, describes the high tolerance for uncertainty in which the company and its managers operate. It is better, says Mollenkompf, to take risks when throwing the ball than when holding it, a piece of advice from his father using a basketball analogy. This mean approaching the fire as he puts it, when opportunities arise but less is known about the details and a high degree of uncertainty prevails. Here he describes how he hires and how he evaluates employees giving them a lot of room to learn, as basically mistakes can be corrected in his experience. It is a culture that encourages and makes sure the A's and B's have what is needed to influence things, not to spend energy on bringing a C to a B level. For this to happen rewards are given for the right kind of behaviours, and there is no tolerance for negative behaviours (jerks for example)- smart people have to get along with other smart people and that is important to get the company moving in the right direction. In evaluating he looks at contributions made over a longer period, doing the right things so that the organization takes opportunities and succeeds 5 years from today. Qualcomm's ability to grow in a rapidly changing tech environment and seize opportunities as they arise, may be attributed to this style of management....