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After renegotiating the trade deal with Mexico and Canada, and the Phase 1 trade deal with China, the U.S. is now setting its sights on a trade agreement with the European Union. To do this the U.S. is looking at the use of economic pressure including tariffs on the European automobile industry. One goal is to get the EU to do more to end state subsidies to aircraft maker Airbus SE.  The U.S. is also working with Europe and Japan to ban 4 types of subsidies under World Trade Organization rules under a new proposal. Mr. Phil Hogan is the new EU trade commissioner who backs this proposal that is aimed at restricting Chinese subsidies to state enterprises. The U.S. also wants to see agricultural issues, including tariffs discussed in future negotiations with Europe. As part of efforts to change the way World Trade Organization rules are set the U.S. has blocked the appointment of judges at the top court of the WTO so that it lacks the quorum to operate. Mr. Vaughan who works under Mr. Lighthizer in the trade negotiations with Europe, says the Europeans should take U.S. concerns seriously, and accept the possibility that Mr. Trump could take aggressive action if the facts show he is justified in acting in that manner.  ...

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On Facebook "Back the Badge" targeted at wives of police officers remembering killed police officers was seen 1.3 million times. Another ad "Woke Blacks" for Afro-American culture targeted at the civil rights movement was seen 750,000 times.These and other ads on Twitter were cited in Congressional investigations in the U.S., as ads paid for in rubles and conducted by Russian internet agencies. Facebook, Google, Instagram and Twitter managers answered questions in Congress about the ads during the U.S. presidential election of 2016.

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Positions different industries are taking on the energy consumption question.

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Jobs in the fracking industry replaced the old steel industry that went into decline in Pennsylvania. The county in the area around Pittsburgh depends on jobs in fracking in the oil and gas industry, and in Pittsburgh itself by contrast jobs have shifted to high tech. The fracking industry has emerged as an alternative for jobs after its rapid growth and the U.S. emergence as an exporter of oil and gas for many who do not have the backgrounds suited for high tech jobs.

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Panama Canal ad US control of a passageway through the seas the US build in the 1900's. The New Monroe Doctrine under DJT takes America back to the days in 1900 when president Teddy Roosevelt pushed thorugh the actions neded to build the Canal connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific. TR had the US Army Corps of Engineers start work in 1904 and said the famous words "Let the Dirt Fly." When Colombia refused to make this happen he formed the new nation of Panama. TR realized the importance of connecting the oceans- foresight for the massive expansion of world trade in the 1960-2025 period raising standards of living for the 3 billion people in India/China/Asia and for the 1 billion people of the EU and the US. Never before in history has such ahuge change in living conditions  and hopes and aspirations happened. Today when American ingenuity, invention and sense of purpose is derided or ridiculed, it serves as a reminder of the great endeavors that happened under American leadership and continue to this day into the future. ...

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12% for Americas 20% for the world and 46% for China- amount of oil imports coming through Straits of Hormuz. US is self sufficent in oil supplies. China gets 5 million barrels a day through the Straits of Hormuz out of about 16 million barrels a day it uses, about 30% of its total oil needs. Insurers are withdrawing from the market. How will this affect oil supplies and prices? US has offered its financial institutions to offer insurance to all ships going through the Straits of Hormuz and provide assurance with defense escorts for tanker ships navigating the Straits of Hormuz. US will be targeting Iran's capabilities to keep the Straits of Hormuz open so that oil tankers can operate bringing oil from UAE and Qatar to Asia and Europe.

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Winter Olympics Milan 2026 -performance of Italy, UK, US, Sweden, Japan.

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Shiller's ten year earnings P/E ratios for U.S. stocks are at about 24.5 in October 2013. By comparison Shiller adjusted 10 year P/E ratio for Greece is at 4, Italy and Spain at close to 10 and Germany at 15.6. The one year earnings P/E ratios in Oct 2013 are at 15.8 for U.S. stocks. Within the U.S. Shiller says, the sectors where P/E ratios are much lower than 24 are in healthcare and energy and industrials. Emerging markets are also much lower than 24 for the U.S., says Shiller.

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The Trump administration says waivers for China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey to import Iranian oil that expire in May will not be renewed. The decision is to have zero exemptions. Earlier Taiwan, Greece and Italy, also on the list, decided to find other sources of imported oil. Iranian oil exports are estimate to be below 1 million barrels a day compared to 2.5 million barrels a day before president Trump abandoned the Obama administration negotiated Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed oil sanctions. 

Saudis and UAE say they will keep the oil market in balance, and president Trump is also relying on U.S. shale oil supplies. The move faces resistance from China which says the U.S. has no jurisdiction to interfere. India haces issues with the U.S. for importing from not only Iran, but also Venezuela, Turkey and Iran are neighbors, India and Iran are neighbors, both with cultural ties to Iran, making the situation difficult for both countries.

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This WSJ editorial says the recent agreement at the Caterpillar Joliet plant in llinois is not about leverage but about increasing U.S. manufacturing competitiveness. As U.S. competitivness improves and the economy grows wages will increase. It does little service to management, labor and the U.S. economy for above market wage rates to lead to loss of manufacturing competitiveness as happened in the U.S. automobile industry, resulting in closing of plants.

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Toyota hit with a fine of $32.4 million in civil penalties, the maximum allowed by law, for failing to make proper disclosure of what Toyota knew about safety defects that led to a massive recall.

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In the year ending July 31, 2021 nine cities in the US with a population over 1 million had a decrease in population of 1.7%. New York City seeing the largest decline of 3.5%. Only San Antonio and Phoenix increased in population.

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The US vaccination drive appears to be stalling when it comes to getting younger people vaccinated. On a recent day 1.13 million persons were vaccinated. About 150 million Americans are fully vaccinated or about 47% of the population. About 53% of the population have one dose. This still leaves the rest of the population close to one half unvaccinated as the US is opening up fully and removing the social distancing and mask mandates that existed before. The problem is that the coronavirus delta variant is about twice as transmissible than the original coronavirus of March 2020. Vaccination is uneven across the US. Large parts of the southern states and the western states lag behind. In these areas as well as areas with large urban concentrations of population, the densely populated cities where social distancing and mask mandates are being lifted as if the coronavirus crisis is over, are at risk of seeing a more powerful virus spread quickly before gene sequencing catches up with new variants- making the response lag behind in terms of weeks. That lag in response could lead to another wave in the US. Consider also that tourism is opening up in Europe with removal of mask mandates, that gene sequencing to track variants is tiny in even countries such as Italy and France. A WSJ report on June 22 shows gene sequencing to track variants at 1% of positive tests in Italy, and virologists in Italy saying they feel as if they are flying blind. This report in the Washington Post says surveys show as many as one third of Americans have no immediate plans to get vaccinated. This is showing up in the low numbers for the vaccination drive, of around 1 million a day at this time in June 2021. In April this was 3 million vaccine doses adminstered on a single day on average. India where the new delta variant has had the most serious impact has stepped up its response with the federal government taking complete responsibility for vaccine supplies and vaccination drives. It is now vaccinating aggressively in the range of 6 million to 8 million doses a day during the last 7 days with a plan to ensure enough vaccine supplies for 1.2 billion people to get vaccinated by December 31.  The European Union and the US have  vaccinated just over 50% of their population for a variant that is more than twice as transmissible than the original virus. This leaves the unvaccinated at real risk because all the social distancing and mask mandates that existed earlier are being removed- in the US, in France, in Italy, and other countries. Soccer stadiums are filling up in Europe, the kind of sports events that later hit Bergamo, Italy, in March 2020. Summer tourism is back in Portugal and Greece. The best intentions will not be enough. Are mask and social distancing protocols being lifted too quickly especially in tourist locations reminiscent of last summer in Europe and elsewhere. Germany and Britain are holding on to them a bit longer. Will this be enough to tackle a new variant. ...

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Coronavirus positive cases over 20 million, with the hardest hit countries U.S., Brazil, India, South Africa.

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Kristof of the NYT recalls how his own father was a refugee from Eastern Europe, swam the Danube river to safety, and was given refuge by a family in Oregon. He points to the failure of world leadership in both Washington, Moscow and Arab capitals leading to the conflict in which about half of the Syrian people are dislocated by civil war.

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The story is an encouraging one as the president and bipartisan Congressmen persevered with courage and patience to invest in America. The story is told by Biden adviser Gene Sperling in the WSJ today Feb 16, 2024, and is on this page. The US federal Budget deficit rises to 6.1%  in 2025 from 5.6% in 2024, then slows to 5.2% in 2027 and 2028, going back to 6.1% in 2034. Because these projections depend on assumptions inflation, interest rates, wages, which may be different in actual numbers in future years the broad guage one can get is that the extra surge in investment of five tenths or six tenths of a percentage point of GDP help the US make the investments in an aging or crumbling infrastructure and in manufacturing, better technologies, not replaced since the 1950's or 1970's, is needed for economic growth and better living conditions for the American people. It is this investment that in trillions of dollars of spending under president Biden that has generated growth of 3.1% in the last 2 years compared to the recession in Germany, UK, France and otehr European countries. UK is the latest to fall into recession this month. Sluggish growth can also be seen in China with a bloated construction center hindering growth. The US is in abetter position after the pandemic than any other country with the exception of India. ...

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High Tariffs on Chinese solar panels imported into US from Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand. The Commerce Department announced high tariffs after an investigation in 2024 when American makers of solar panels accused Chinese companies of flooding the market with subsidized cheap solar panels, even below cost of production. A Korean solar panel maker in Arizona and other companies had brought this up. Tariffs range from 41% to 375%. Shows US is serious about taking action.

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The Economist points out (in this cover issue on India-Pakistan relations) several fundamental facts. The first is that the current state of relations betweeen India and Pakistan hurts Pakistan the most. It makes a much smaller country and smaller economy bear the burden of defense against a large neighbor- defense takes up much needed allocation of funds for infrastructure and development, education and healthcare. It also weakens democratic institutions and their development by an overdependence on the military for governance. Poor India-Pakistan relations have significant adverse effects on the U.S. In fighting the Taliban U.S. forces are fighting a force that Pakistan's military helped create and support from its early beginnings as a way to counter Indian influence. With an Indian-Pakistani peace settlement of issues in Kashmir and other outstanding issues the U.S. would be in a significantly better position to disengage from the region, especially when the entire Middle East is moving in a new direction in 2011. Consider the difficulties in establishing peace in Northern Ireland, and between Turkey and Greece, and the difficulties of establishing peace between India and Pakistan cannot be considered even more difficult. Pakistan and India muddle along- neither side is doing much to take the initiative. For the U.S. disengagement from South Asia can be best achieved by pushing for a settlement between the two countries. Pakistan and India have much to gain from a settlement. Considering the progress made in Ireland, such places as Yugoslavia, and in Turkish-Greek relations, there is a lot more that can be done and should be done to bring India and Pakistan together. In Ireland diplomatic efforts were made by U.S. envoy George Mitchell, and in Yugoslavia U.S. envoy Holbrooke made diplomatic efforts towards the Dayton accords. Greek-Turkish relations have advanced to the point where Erdogan and Papandreou, the Greek and Turkish prime ministers, discuss solutions to the Greek debt crisis. This includes options to reduce Greece's defense expenditures in the light of Turkey's new foreign policies. The lack of such efforts to break the deadlock between India and Pakistan by the U.S,. the U.K. and other countries involved in the NATO mission in Afghanistan, the emphasis on a military solution supported first by Gen. McChrystal, and then by by Gen. Petraeus, all show a lack of understanding of the real issues that need to be tackled- issues relating to a peace settlement between India and Pakistan....

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No less than a report by Harry Truman's Commission on Migratory Labor in 1951 says-  Migratory labor caused low wages in the Southwest and traced social ills to illegal immigration: “The magnitude … has reached entirely new levels in the past 7 years.… In its newly achieved proportions, it is virtually an invasion,” the report says. What one sees from this archive of the US Congress is that there ebbs and flows back and forth on migration across the southern border. The trade unions and even Harry Truman's Commission come out for restricting migration depending on this ebb and flow. Remember that Asian immigration is flatly opposed from 1910 to 1950. twenties - open to meet farm labor needs, 40% of US vegetables grown in the southwest. thirties - with the Great Depression a Hoover deportation effort forties- welcoming immigrants to meet war needs under Franklin Roosevelt fifties- under both Truman and EIsenhower the welcome ends and apart from the bracero program for agriculture, the Eisenhower administration conducts Operation Wetback. The House of Representatives Archives show the history of Hispanics in the southwest and immigration from Mexico in the period of the 1930's to the 1950's. One sees the effects of the Depression and Labor's AFL CIO and trade unions favoring limits on immigration from Mexico because of the difficulties American citizens were having finding jobs during the 1929-1934 period. Herbert Hoover moved illegal immigrants back to Mexico in the first program at a time when there were strict limits to Asians emigrating to the US. For much of the twenties the border was left open to meet the needs of the southwest farms for Mexican labor. Then came the war when Mexican Americans joined the war effort in great numbers. After the war the difficulty of finding jobs for troops returning to the US created new pressures to limit immigration. Ike setup Operation wetback to deport about 1 million migrants.   ...

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The broad leeway for vaccination in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. is leading to the outbreak of a disease that was seen as wiped out twenty years ago. A measles outbreak has taken place in Washington state. 50 cases are reported from this area according to CDC.