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Dangers to the global economy in 2010.
01/04/2010
Dangers for Britain, USA, China and other countries.
Linked Articles
Beware the Crisis around the corner
Financial Times 01/04/2010
Fed chief Bernanke urges better financial regulation to prevent crisesWashington Post 01/04/2010
Procter and Gamble (P&G) takes early success at low price points in Mexico to other emerging markets Brazil and China- 2009-2014
12/12/2009
Linked Articles
P&G Sales Rise on Strong Demand in Emerging Markets
Wall Street Journal 01/27/2014
P.& G. Sees the World as Its ClientNew York Times 12/12/2009
The declining value of the euro and China's export industry.
10/23/2009
This affects American exports to the Chinese market also making european goods more competitive.
Linked Articles
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
The Chinese DisconnectNew York Times 10/23/2009
Bill Gates and David Rieff on the untapped resource for India and the global economy of India's children
10/11/2009
The challenge of getting hundreds of millions of rural Indian children into the development mainstream through better healthcare, pharmaceuticals, nutrition, education and agricultural improvement is the next major challenge for India and the global economy. It is a huge untapped resource for India and the global economy.
Linked Articles
Bill Gates: What I Learned in the Fight Against Polio
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2013
India’s Malnutrition DilemmaNew York Times 10/11/2009
BP, Shell and other foreign oil companies expand production in Iraq in 2012-2014
07/01/2009
Ambitious goals for oil production are set by the Iraqi government as oil companies from the, U.S., Europe, Russia and China, provide the expertise to increase production from older oil fields. Problems of infrastructure and national oil legislation hinder rapid development.
Linked Articles
Crude Oil Output Is Soaring in Iraq, Easing Markets
New York Times 06/02/2012
Oil Companies Reject Iraq's Contract TermsWall Street Journal 07/01/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
Deflation and the bond market pushing up rates in June 2009.
06/11/2009
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Today's Inflation Hawk: The Bond MarketWall Street Journal 06/16/2009
Bernanke's views on how the underutilization of labor in todays markets should make inflation less of a threat.
06/11/2009
Remarks by Bernanke to the Open Market Committee of the Fed in 2003, have a relevance to the situation facing the economy today. Rising raw materials prices and the falling dollar are likely to have a muted effect on inflation. The impact of slowing wages and the high unemployment and growing underutilization of labor, in the midst of a manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 68% and continuing to fall, are likely to be the deciding factors.
Linked Articles
Slack Labor Markets Will Hold Down Prices
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Even when the recovery occurs and inventories get replaced gorwth will be slow, as deleveraging process takes many years.
05/28/2009
Mr. Mecksworth, chief economist at MAPI says even when arecovery happens it will mean slow growth as companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years to come.
Linked Articles
Once a Key to Recovery, Detroit Adds to Pain
New York Times 06/01/2009
Sharper Drop Is Forecast for Factory ProductionWall Street Journal 05/28/2009
Two scenes-one of Gates and the other of Sgt. Hyland- and the knot that ties them together.
05/15/2009
Scenes of a rainy night at an airforce base in Delaware, as Defense Sec. Gates prays in a 747 with draped coffins of dead soldiers. And the scene of a maimed soldier, Sgt Hyland, weeping in front of a picture of Specialist Jonathan at a battalion hall in Diyala province. near Baghdad. And the relevance to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Linked Articles
Wounded Soldiers Return to Iraq, Seeking Solace
New York Times 10/15/2009
Pentagon's Gates Keeps Single-Minded Focus on Dual Wars in Iraq and AfghanistanWashington Post 05/15/2009
Laffer says inflation and high interest rates are a sure thing with the $1 trillion increase in the monetary base since Sept 2008.
04/23/2009
This is the largest increase in the monetary base in the last 50 years by afactor of 10, and is unlike anything ever experienced before. He sees inflation and rising interest rates as a result surpassing anything seen in the 1970's. Bernanke he says faces a Hobson's choice between contracting the monetary base and putting the economy back in recession and letting things go the way they are resulting in steep inflation. He sees the Fed having the option of increasing the reserve requirements at banks, to restrain the increase in the monetary base.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The gap between the admirable comments and clarity of Obama's Georgetown sppech and the growing foreclosures, dramatic drops in business and consumer lending.
04/14/2009
Failure to stem foreclosures and to ramp up business and consumer lending, by taking over insolvent banks and offering loans at attractive rates, is hurting the economy and will lead to further job losses.
Linked Articles
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls Again
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Text of Obama Economic SpeechBusinessWeek 04/14/2009
Interest rate swap contracts sold by banks to the city of Detroit in 2005 and the "kiko" derivative contracts sold by banks to exporters in S. Korea before the 2008 global financial crisis
04/03/2009
The huge losses suffered by Detroit and by exporters in S. Korea and how the issues raised were handled in the two places. What takes precedence fairness or contracts, how much of a contract has to be intelligible to the investor and the broader question of why banks needed to write such contracts or conduct business in this way which could hurt their reputation. An example is given by Floyd Norris of NYT where Bankers Trust reputation suffered badly in 1994 for selling such contracts to P&G.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/03/2009
'Safe Harbor' in Bankruptcy Upended in Detroit CaseNew York Times 12/23/2013
John Taylor's reply to U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's defence of his role in setting low interest rates in 2003-2006 leading to the 2008 global financial crisis
01/04/2010
Linked Articles
The Fed and the Crisis: A Reply to Ben Bernanke
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2010
Fed chief Bernanke urges better financial regulation to prevent crisesWashington Post 01/04/2010
Debt woes and how they affect the upturn in Europe.
12/09/2009
Countries like Spain and Greece and how the debt woes affect their economic growth.
Linked Articles
Spain's Debt Woes Echo Europe's Uneven Rebound
Wall Street Journal 12/10/2009
Countries' Debt Woes Pose Risk to UpturnWall Street Journal 12/09/2009
David Rieff provides insights on why all developing countries, Mexico, Brazil, India, Indonesia and China need to take child malnutrition seriously
10/11/2009
The Indian lower house of parliament passed a Food Security bill in August 2013. Rieff says China made serious progress to reduce malnutrition from over 21% for children under 5 years to around 7% today after 1990. In India malnutrition for children under 5 years is above 40%. There is a lot that developing coutnries can learn from each other in this area including the Bolsa Familia program in Brazil which uses the concept of improving vaccination for children and school attendance as requirements for subsidy payments to the poor. Mexico and Indonesia have different versions of programs to help the poorer sections of society. The problem is acute in India because of indifference induced by caste and other considerations and the high level of malnutrition for children. Rief says how good is ademographic dividend when many of these children are permanently and silently impaired by malnutrition by the age of three. India's Congress party leader, Sonia Gandhi, put it differently in parliament: "What is our responsibility to these people?"
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/11/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
As U.S. shoppers become frugal China looks to its own domestic market.
09/29/2009
Linked Articles
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
New York Times 05/29/2010
China Inc. Looks Homeward as U.S. Shoppers Turn FrugalWall Street Journal 09/29/2009
Failure of HARP refinance program of the Obama adminsitration and rising mortgage rates.
06/11/2009
Rising rates makes refinancing difficult for homeowners. Mortgage rates reached 5.79% on June 10, 2009.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Rate Rise Clouds RecoveryWall Street Journal 06/12/2009
Paul Krugman responds to Arthur Laffer's points about inflation by saying reversing course would put us back into a steep downturn.
06/11/2009
Krugman says only three times in the past has amajor economy faced a liquidity trap, where there is no more room to cut interest rates. During the depression years, during Japan's lost decade and now. In the previous two situations, in 1937 and 1996, a premature tightening of credit put the economy back into a steep downturn.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Stay the CourseNew York Times 06/15/2009
Treasury data show the 10 year Treasury bond yield went up to 3.78% in April from 3.0% 3 months ago.
06/11/2009
The effect of large Fed purchases of Treasury's may be the reverse of lowering rates, as creditors to the government see rising inflation from the Fed's unprecedented actions.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Fed's Conundrum on Treasury PurchasesWall Street Journal 06/15/2009
The $5 trillion in new debt expected for 2009-2010, will become harder to reverse if the rising foreclosures weaken any recovery.
06/02/2009
With 15.4 million homeowners under water and rising unemployment exacerbating the foreclosure rate, and no governement solution in sight, any recovery will be weak. This makes the debt reduction less likely, and weakens prospects for economic growth.
Linked Articles
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World Growth
New York Times 06/04/2009
Foreclosures: No End in SightNew York Times 06/02/2009
The huge downsizing in the auto industry creates the need for big government supported initatives in retraining.
05/21/2009
Vicotr Brown and the 60,000 former workers at GM's BUick City have worked at GM all their lives, and can't imagine anything else. How does one get them from joining the ranks of the permanently unemployed, is a challenge for the government. THe labor underutilization rate expected to reach 20% for 2010, could threaten the economic recovery, and put everything at risk.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
The Last Holdouts Cast Their Lot With G.M.New York Times 05/21/2009
The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
In the two areas that government can make aserious difference, foreclosure prevention and bank lending it is failing.
04/15/2009
The government has only indirect influence over the other important variables in the equation for economic recovery, consumption and employment. Through foreclosure prevention and bank lending it can influence consumption and employment. Obama's program while admirable may simply fall short of what is required. Through asimple takeover of insolvent banks the administrationcan implement its own programs for goreclosure prevention and aggressive bank lending at attractive rates, but this has to be done early before business go into permanent retrenchment mode and consumers simply revert to a frugal lifestyle of an earlier generation.
Linked Articles
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls Again
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Banks Ramp Up ForeclosuresWall Street Journal 04/15/2009
Is Erdogan missing the lesson of 2009 elections- the AK Party depends on economic growth for voter support
04/04/2009
Linked Articles
A wake-up call from the voters
Economist 04/04/2009
Turkey's Economy Surged 11% in QuarterWall Street Journal 07/01/2011
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