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VW sales including Audi were up 34% in 2012. BMW sales were up 14%, and Daimler sales were up 15%. The growth rates for the German automakers surpassed growth in China. By manufacturing in the U.S. German automakers are better able to compete with the Detroit and Japanese carmakers in pricing. A third of BMW vehicles and a fourth of VW and Mercedes vehicles are now made in the U.S., according to LMC Automotive. VW has invested about $4 billion in the U.S. since 2008, including investment at a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The German carmakers are now going for mass appeal with the VW Passat. Lower priced Mercedes models now sell for under $30,000. German exports to the U.S. increased by 24% in October 2012, compared to 18% for the eurozone overall. About 40% of German exports to the U.S are autos. Eurozone exports to the U.S. were up 18% in Oct 2012, and Britain's exports increased by 11%. British exports in Oct 2012 of 4 billion euros were second only to Germany at 8 billion euros....

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For Deere 80% of production of farm tractors is in US and 75% of suppliers in US. It is working on ways to tackle tariffs impact which is about $500 million. Its plan is to raise prices 2-4%. Deere has to tackle the imports from Germany of midsize tractors and its exports to Europe which also face tariffs. Other production is in Mexico and China.

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Metro Detroit has 90% of the 17,000 cases in Michigan as the pandemic reaches its peak there this week.  The large Detroit airport renovated and enlarged is seen as a source of the coronavirus as Detroit is where all 3 auto U.S. auto companies are located. GM, and Ford have large manufacturing operations in China, and  Chrysler has plants in northern Italy, the locations where coronavirus has hit hard, and in the case of China where it originated. Health experts say the busy Detroit international airport connecting the Detroit hub to other auto hubs in northern Italy and China- both virus hotspots- may have contributed to the virus hitting Detroit early. This country to country transmission along some route is how the virus has traveled to over 150 countries. For instance German reports show Bavaria as the source of the early cases in Italy's Lombardy region. It could be that German auto companies located in Bavaria with large operations in China resulted in inadvertent transmission of the virus from China through airport in Munich from flights between Germany and China. A Shenyang municipal bureau report provides information on German  investment in Shenyang, Liaoning province. Munich based BMW makes 1.3 million cars here. There is also the newly built Chinese German Tiexi industrial park in Shenyang with 50 German companies BASF, Siemens, located there.  Once the virus arrives in one location its spread depends on the environment with densely packed areas and the health conditions prevailing in a particular area playing their part. Both in New York and Detroit metro area this helped its faster spread in lower income densely packed areas.   ...

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Japan is not seriously affected by the slowdown in growth in China. Sales in China of Toyota, Uniqlo, and other companies are increasing. Japan's exports to China increased by 8.3% in May 2013 over the prior year. Toyota expects China sales to grow by 7% in 2013, compared to a decline of 4.9% in 2012. There is high demand for SUV's. Nissan and Honda expect sales increases in 2013 of 6% and 25%. Komatsu sales are recovering because of infrastructure projects in rural areas of China. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda says the bank will monitor China closely, particularly the shadow banking system.

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European Union exports toChina, India and Southeast Asia rose 56% to 228 billion euros between 2000 and 2007, with CHina and India accounting for 44% of that. Now that engine of growth for European companies is about to stall.

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Good news for the eurozone economy. Growth has accelerated to 0.3%. It is estimated by OECD for growth in Eurozone at 1.2% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2027. The number of people employed rose by 0.6% for 2025 which shows the eurozone economies are resilient inthe face of tariffs and China's aggressive export drive in the EU. Investment growth picked up by 0.9% in the third quarter quarter of 2025 over prior quarter after a drop in the second quarter of 1.7%.

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Beijing residents say they began to relax in wearing masks or not wearing them, not wearing masks properly, after 8 weeks with no cases. A vegetable and fruits wholesale market in Beijing, in southwestern district of Fengtai,  which supplies 80% of the fruits and vegetables to Beijing's 21 million people is now seen by health authorites in Beijing as the source of a new outbreak. 79 new cases are traced back to this market on June 15.  In Beijing restaurants and shops had reopened. Primary schools and other schools had reopened. Public health experts are looking at the possibility that the source is a cutting board for frozen salmon imported from overseas possibly Europe-. because of the DNA sequencing of the virus experts say. Contaminated seafood or meat is suspected as a source. China's CDC says the virus can survive on frozen meat or seafood for 3 months. Just when this new cluster was detected in Beijing, the city of Wuhan the origin city of the virus is permitting indoor sports and entertainment facilities reopen, and this WSJ report says Wuhan is making masks no longer mandatory outdoors. Beijing authorites have responded with mass testing, and contact tracing through neighborhood committees. About 100,000 people are organized by neighborhood committees to visit the city's 7000 residential compounds for contact tracing to identify people who visited the market and get them to test for coronavirus. This is the typical response in China to get large numbers of low level officials, workers and volunteers mobilized for contact tracing and testing. By June 14 about 76,000 people were tested - of this 13,000 are from the 29,000 who visited the market since May 30, according to Beijing government statistics. ...

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Shipments of farm products to China will reach $15 billion in 2011, compared to China's $16.8 billion and Mexico's $14.6 billion. In the first 8 months of 2010, U.S. agricultural exports increased 14% to $69.8 billion, from same period year earlier.

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The glut of steel in China in May 2012 as the economy slows. The prospects for fresh stimulus and infrastructure projects do not look as promising as during the last stimulus efforts in 2009, leading to efforts to increase exports.

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Yellen tells the governor of Guangdong that China's huge subsidies for solar, EV and other industries disrupts "the level playing field" America needs. In all previous administrations  of both parties American economic ministry heads stayed silent or said it in a way that they were ignored. A culture of government staying out spread like wild fire under Reagan and "free to choose" advocates such as Friedman who did not realize the grave dangers to American manufacturing and its workers inside America, and to the world's other manufacturing capable nations such as India with overconcentration in one location. It was America's misfortune that economists and business leaders in the US were not listening enabling China to ignore this. By offering huge government subisidized incentives China and Taiwan shifted manufacturing away from the US in semiconductors, solar, EV's. It started with Apple and is still going on with Tesla. Today economists such as Yellen say economic resilience and supply chains are at risk before they said it lowered cost for consumers and failed to wake up when advanced technologies were at stake, as economists never trained in manufacturing had no knowledge of how it works with learning curves and knowhow that is built over decades, once lost hard to regain. The message fellow Americans is that trust your instincts and common sense, and trust observation which is what the Renaissance in the 15th century was all about and which put Europe ahead of Asia, to the great misfortune of Asia. Japan, China, have learned these lessons well, America as an immigrant nation is different from Europe, and must use its good sense to keep open the opportunities for its people and workers, and the people and workers of all nations that are manufacturing capable. Yellen said- "Direct and indirect government support is currently leading to production capacity that significantly exceeds China's domestic demand, as well as what the global market can bear...Overcapacity can lead to large volumes of exports at depressed prices, and it can lead to overconcentration of supply chains, posing a risk to global economic resilience,"    ...

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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Indian PM Modi meets DJT on Feb 12-13, 2025, at the White House. Focus is on trade, and on defense issues. Shown alongside is the situation of illegal migration from India, mainly from the Punjab region of India and from Gujarat. India will make the case for its exports based on the new supply chain shift reducing overdependence on China, and the shift to Make in America for jobs and factories.

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Why a free trade agreement with China is still too early. Because India has still to develop its manufacturing base so that it can export to China. Already China's trade surplus with India is $10 billion because of more value added manufacturing goods from China.

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Germany's growth rate for GDP in 2016 was 1.9% compared to 2015. This is the highest growth rate in half a decade, and better than 2015 when the growth in GDP was 1.7%. Fiscal surplus was 0.6% of GDP in 2016. Germany's Economics and Technology Ministry says the economy is improving because of the positive labor situation, rising incomes and consumer spending. Real estate boom is also helping growth, and also the state spending including on refugees accomodation. Exports have surged and the economy has recovered from the Brexit effect. Exports surged to 1.1 trillion euros in 11 months of 2016.

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Experts at Moody's say that a partial deal with China like the phase 1 deal Mr. Trump announced this week will leave unresolved the fundamental differences in the two countries' economic, political and strategic interests. Mr. Trump suspended a new tariff on Chinese imports set to go into effect in December on mobile phones, laptops and the remaining import products not yet covered by tariffs. Any improvements in relations is seen only as temporary. In the agriculture sector most farmers are taking a cautious attitude. Importers of products such as luggage and other basic consumer products are living with the uncertainty- product quality may deteriorate now that importers cannot pass on a 25% tariff cost.

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Even China has not campaigned the way Canada, Mexico and British, American media have against DJT Tariffs because China knows it is basically about getting an even playing field when it is the only country with $1 trillion in trade in its favor in 2024, 12 times the Japanese high of $82 billion trade surplus in 2007. But why should China campaign when the American and British, German media are going to do the job for China? A simple quiz to K-12 would ask school children when is the last time a country has a $1 trillion trade surplus? Answer: Never. Greg Ip has written a few years back that the devastation of China outshoring of American factories and jobs was unlike the 1980's Japan trade invasion because of first China's size, second by the speed with which it happened at 10-14% Chinese GDP growth. There is a third Japan was an ally needing US for security and backed down, China's case is different it is challenging the US for control of the world economy and will fight this one over the long haul. Greg Ip of WSJ on the 53 countries asking to negotiate US Liberation Day April 2, 2025 Tariffs. These countries include Allies of the US in full support asking to negotiate Israel, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India Allies of the US in partial support asking to negotiate Britain Allies of the US not in full support asking to negotiate Germany, France Allies of the US in the past campaigning against the US, asking to negotiate Canada, Mexico Not Allies of the US, not in full support, not campaigning against the US China A look at his list tells one only one thing, mostly all trading partners except for the $146 billion exports of the US which represents exports to China are the exports that are at risk if things don't work out on tariffs. This is what the media today WSJ added this last week to the NYT, Wash. Post and the BBC, Guardian of UK, German media will not tell the reader.  The DJT Tariffs and Tariff negotiations are Lighthizer Tariff negotiations which won the fight with Japan in the 1980's over unfair trade and gaining a level playing field. Lighthizer as Deputy US Trade Representative conducted the tough negotiations with Japan. He was USTR in 2016-2020 and his Deputy Jamieson is now USTR in 2025       ...

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Drier weather is affecting wheat production in Europe, India, Brazil and other countries. This is happening as the war in Ukraine and blockade of Black sea ports such as Odessa is affecting supplies from Ukraine. A more than 5% fall in French wheat production is expected. France is the fifth largest producer of wheat after China, India, Russia, and the US. It is the 4th biggest wheat exporter. EU forecasts for wheat are for about 279 million metric tons in 2022-2023 growing season, down 4% because of dry weather. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization FAO says in its twice a year Global Food Report that global grain production including corn, wheat and other grains is expected at 2.78 billion metric tons in 2022 down almost 16 million metric tons from 2021. It is the first decline in 4 years and much of this is from the problems in Ukraine. India has banned wheat exports for food security reasons after the drier weather.  And Russian production of grains faces problems because paying for Russian grains is more complicated. ...

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Make no mistake president Biden is saying it is America's, and India's turn to reinvent the semiconductor industry with government capital support, and with the zeal and inventive capabilities of the US and India. This interview by Ben Cohen gives a glimpse of how Morris Chang now 92 years sees the founding of Taiwan Semiconductor in 1985 in retrospect in 2024. He talks about his early life in the US as an immigrant from China after 1949 and his work at Texas Instruments learning about the semiconductor industry. In the 1980's Japan was the rising industrial nation in semiconductors. By 1985 Intel which dominated memory chips faced challenges in quality and cost and cheap capital from Japanese capital markets encouraging exports. By 1988 Japan took over the market. What Morris Chang is not telling is that Chang already had the Japanese example in 1985. If Japan could do it on all three fronts quality, cheap capital with government assistance, and ten year effort Chang and Taiwan could do this and accomplished this which it has done. ...

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BYD is China's largest EV automaker. It boosted employment by 50% to 630,000 in 2023, with growth of 73%. This WSJ report shows how the Chinese government is now favoring EV automakers and the EV industry over Chinese internet companies such as Alibaba and Tencent that once played a large part in the economy.  $72 billion in tax breaks are provided by the government to EV automakers. Jobs have shrunk in internet companies during the pandemic with the Xi Jinping government moving away from housing and internet industries creating higher unemployment. Youth unemployment had reached 21%. The growth of BYD by 73% in the 8 months of 2023 shows how the EV industry will play a larger role in the economy, along with other new industries and technologies. It will also become an export leader with domestic innovation in technologies.

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Wholesale inflation calculated weekly is at 7% in India. And the country's Finance Minister Chidambaram says he is more concerned about inflation than a growth that slows a bit. Experts forecast growth slowing down from 9% to 7% in the next 2 years as the global slowdown affects India. For the US India has been a good export market with sales growing at the rate of 75% a year according to the USA Commerce Department. But a look at the charts shows that China also had periods of a couple of years when growth slowed to 7% in recent years before it gradually went back up to over 10%. And China's growth will also be affected by the global slowdown and fall weel below 10%. And this may be a health y thing for China as it decides what kind of growth it wants to see that is better than the haphazard growth of the last few years with its huge environmental costs and lax regulation and the imbalances in growth between urban and rural as well as wages and benefits without labor law protections to create domestic consumption by a middle class. ...

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The US has 1 trillion in trade deficits each year and it is completing the destruction of manufacturing in the US. Half of this is with China as China exports through Vietnam and Mexico, third countries, in addition to 295 billion dollars of trade imbalance the US has with China. China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam are the largest offenders. No country can long endure with such a loss of its manufacturing base. The US Navy itself is in danger without the manufacturing to compete with China in shipbuilding. China has taken up over 50% of shipbuilding, and soon the US Navy will not be able to protect the free world if these types of economists and self serving German or other foreign interests drive a false narrative and the US acts on such false narratives.  Without the US Navy in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans no one is safe, not Germany, not the EU, not India, not Latin America or the rest of Asia and the world.

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Difficulites facing Chinese auto manufacturers making for export include safety, styling. In manufacturing it includes systems integration, getting the car to come out just right for western customers. And the low end of the market is disappearing compared to where the Japanese found it 40 years ago, as greater reliability keps small cars on the road longer and the time to make is also shrinking as other joint venture models such as Honda are already being manufactured in China for export. All this means exports to the states by companies like Geely will take a few yeas longer maybe 2009-2010 and it gives Detroit car makers on less thing to worry about.

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The Economist points out that China's total debt of government, corporate and households has grown by about 100% of GDP since 2008. The 2009 crisis led to rapid increase in debt. It is now about 250% of GDP, according to the Economist. Slower growth of below 7% risks reducing China's ability to service this debt. About half of this debt is owed by state owned companies and property developers. China can use its sovereign reserves to continue supporting bank and state owned companies. Investor's are pricing bank shares to reflect about 10% of this debt as bad debt even though government estimates are much lower. The reserves provided China time to fix the banking system since 2008, yet the debt keeps growing and China has failed to take strong action in the last 6 years. Complacency is a problem, and the incentives for local governments to continue prior practices that increase debt continue. As Krugman and other experts have pointed out at some point the rules of finance will apply to China as they have for other countries that faced a debt crisis- Japan in the late 1980's, South Korea and other Aisan countries in 1997, and the U.S. in 2008. Even without a crisis through deft managemen and use of reserves China risks zombifying the economy as old loans are backed up by new loans, with the further risk of misallocation of capital or poor use of capital. This lowers productivity of capital and hurts development. With poor statistics such as the figure of 1% of debt being bad debt cited here, the problems of complacency can be magnified, as there is less reason for a strong response....

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Bradsher, Tankersley and Cohen say in this NYT report- US industrial policy under president Biden corrects the failures of the past. Chinese experts in Hong Kong say the US and Europe deindustrialized their economies with pursuing of policies called "neo-liberal" but basically Reagan era policies that Democratic presidents Clinton-Obama imitated. As they deindustrialized it created disaffection among the struggling lower and middle income classes making $35,000-$106,000 that were big losers in the process, creating threats to democracy as financial and tech, plus pharmaceutical sectors took control of the economy. China's success comes from three decades of mastering the ways of practicing industrial policy that it can support private companies with low cost land, additional subsidies that reduce the cost of production and provide a buffer to absorb losses so that it could dominate key industries. Policies where textbooks and economists trained in the US failed utterly and completely leading to dangers to US democracy that we see as opportunities for good paying jobs in manufacturing disappeared for middle and lower income households from 1980 to 2020. These economists trained in the US always said see lower cost Chinese made goods means lower and middle income people pay less, never saying that this means all opportunities for better paying jobs in manufacturing will be lost for these classes in society. The tech and financial sectors had close ties to the new arrangement that turned manufacturing over to China from the Reagan era to the Obama and Trump era. Apple and Tesla and many industries benefitted from manufacturing mostly outsourced to China. ...

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Reports from automotive experts in Stuttgart show German car companies and suppliers are not well prepared for the competition in electric cars. Their leadership may not be taken for granted in electric car world causing threats to jobs, tax revenue and growth. It was in a Stuttgart garage that Daimler and Maybach invented the internal combustion engine 136 years ago in 1884.

The Institute for Employment Research of the German government prediction is that if electric cars make up 23% of all cars sold in 2035 the country would lose 20 billion euros in output, 0.6 percentage of GDP, and 13% of its 870,000 auto industry workforce. This is because China is emerging as a formidable competitor in electric cars and has invested heavily in this sector.

As in broad band infrastructure shown in a recent report in Lyrarc, Germany has failed to invest enough in electric cars.