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Tesla suffered from production issues in 2017 and CEO Musk was not his usual upbeat self.  In early 2018 Musk is back to his usual style predicting big things for Tesla. Just after his company Space Exploration Technologies sent a powerful rocket with a Tesla car into space,Musk predicted making one million vehicles a year in 2020. In 3 months he says a Tesla will cross the U.S. He says Tesla will now be able to make 5000 cars a week of the Model 3.

Another of his predictions is that he will revolutionize production systems and leap over existing car companies. Analysts asked Musk if the Toyota Production System had not already achieved that, Musk says "we don't think so." This report points to changing moods of Musk and periods when he feels high and low, and changing according to the unrelenting stress he finds himself in or indulges in.

 

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Under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 the government is authorized to give upto $25 billion in low interest loans to auto companiesto retool plants to make smaller fuel efficient cars. Lobbyists for the auto industry are trying to increase that to $50 billion. The package of loans is presented not as a bailout but as a way to offset some of the $100 billion it is estimated it would cost the industry to meet the new fuel economy standards enacted in that bill. GM's 7.2% bonds due 2011 were trading at 64.25 cents on August 27, 2008, translating nto a yield of 29% for that debt. In the credit default market it costs $4.5 million upfront and 0.5 million anually to insure $10 million of GM bonds for 5 years. The govenment loans at 4-5% would cost significantly less as borrowing costs are very high for automakers at present. Both Senators McCain and Obama see Michigan and Ohio as crucial to a win and support the loan package. It would cost $3.75 billion in insurance costs for the $25 billion loan package. Because of the automakers precarious financial condition and no improvement in consumer demand or in financial markets in sight in the next 2-3 years as a plausible scenario, and more losses looming for automakers, this package may turn out to be a crucial element in the recovery of the American auto industry and in turning over almost America's entire fleet of cars on the road into more fuel efficient cars....

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A WSJ study showing the plans offered under the new U.S. Health Care Law in the state of Oregon. For young people ages 18-34 earning about $17,000 and uninsured the law offers a bargain with insurance premiums monthly at about $52 and deductibles as low as $100, because of higher subsidies. The situation changes at incomes of $29,000 when the deductibles are about $6300 and the premiums per month at about $147 a month, because subsidies are much smaller, or deductibles dropping to $2500 at $172 in monthly premium. The federal subsidies disappear for single people under age 30 earning much more than $26,000 because of the way the law places them to specific plans on each state's exchange. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, there are 11.6 million people in the U.S. ages 18-34 who are uninsured. The federal government has to get as many of these people to get insurance so that the cost of medical care for the elderly can be supported.

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While German car fleets have reduced fuel consumption by 25% from 1990, BMW suffers from impression of higher fuel consumption with sporty cars. One environmental group shows BMW in 2005 sold cars that have an average 192 grams of CO2 per kilometre above industry average of 162 grams of CO2 per kilometre. The climate change issue is explosive in Germany and the German industry's main lobbying group's president resigned over its image and failures in commnications with public opinion on climate change.

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Three million additional Americans get access to Medicaid as a result of the Obama Healthcare Law (Affordable Care Act). Under the law states could expand Medicaid to people less than 65 years old with income of 133% of the federal poverty level of $15,521 for individual or $31,721 for family. About half of U.S. states expanded Medicaid and the rest kept the prior income guidelines. The figures are from a report by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which show 58 million Americans on Medicaid in third quarter of 2013, and up to 61 million in March 2014.

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Comments on the health care system in Holland, article frontpage Sept 6, 2007, wsj. See also Mayo Clinic's recommendations.

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With 10.3 million workers unemployed according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and this includes 2.8 million added this year so far in 2008. Most of the people who lost their jobs also lost their health benefits. This increases the urgency for the Obama administration to come up with action in the health care area as the ranks of the uninsured will grow in 2009.

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The European automobile market staged a recovery in 2014 with sales up 5.7% to 12.6 million, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. The big gains were made by the lower cost brands such as Renault's Dacia made in Romania, and VW's Skoda made in the Czech Republic. Dacia sales increased in 2014 by 24% to 359,141 and Skoda's sales increased by 14% to 554,479. A Dacia Sandero without air conditioning, power locks or radio is priced at 7,990 euros in France compared to a better equiped Skoda Fabia at 12,640 euros and a VW Golf at 17,388, a big price difference for budget car buyers. The major brands continue to dominate with the Golf model continuing as the best selling model in Europe. GM and Ford with the Opel Corsa and Ford Fiesta also increased market share. VW's market share is 12.7%, Skoda's 4.4%.

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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Small airports that are popular- Wichita, Hagerstown, Orlando, Charlotteville, Albany. It is easier to get to these airports and hire a rental car, get your bags, and not have to fight traffic.

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China is offering Germany narrow wins such as buying more Airbus planes while continuing to focus on another export expansion drive in European Union countries. As it pulls back from the American market  in the face of tariffs by DJT it is selling more automobiles and other products in Germany. China continues to focus on its core potential in electric cars, machine tools, robotics and other products where it competes with German products. German jobs are at stake as China continues its expansion into the European market. This is a big concern for Merz of the CDU as he visits China in Feb 2026.

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David Welch of BW says the Cash for Clunkers program is a lemon, because it is underfunded and its noo narrow for car buyers to benefit. Only about 250,000 car buyers can benefit from aprogram of this size of $ 1billion. THe program is from August to November 1. Here is the faulty arithmetic if the goal is to stimulate sales. THe program pays $3500 to $4500 but this is place of trade in value. A carbuyer has to turn in a car getting less than 18 mile per gallon, but most cars get more than that. THe luxury models that get less than 18mpg would sell for lot more than $4500 in trade in value. And the old cars that get less than 18mpg and are worth less than $4500 in trade in value really old cars probably owned by buyers who at a time of economic distress and growing jobless numbers and credit card debt are not likely to be looking to make a purchase. Welch says it might even help sell more pickups if the really old pickups are traded in by buyers for new ones that get more mileage.

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Instead of the long process of negotiating trade deals with individual countries the US negotiates specific agreement designed to include friendly nations in the provisions of the EV manufacturing subsidies for making in America. This type of agreement lets EU and separately Japan benefit from subsidies offered to EV manufacturers in the US. The agreement with Japan is designed to get larger access to EV battery minerals for US and Japan in which China has an early lead. Under the agreement minerals sourced from Japan qualify for the $7500 subsidy for EV vehicles made in the US provided under the Inflation Reduction Act.