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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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Oxford University Wellbeing Research Center has developed Happiness score using Gallup surveys. US score No.10 ranking among 143 countries for older adults over 60 years. Yet it drops off steeply for young people to 62nd of 143 countries. The situation is the same in Canada and to a lesser extent in the European Union. Overall the US dropped out of the top 20 countries  falling from 15th to 23rd. The report is based on Gallup World poll surveys from 2021 to 2023. Young females recording even lower. Normally it starts with youth doing better and higher then in a U curve dropping all the way down during a midlife crisis in 30's and 40's age before rising again for older adults wi have experienced the vicissitudes of life. The US data contradicts this. Why? Jan De Neve of Oxford Wellbeing Center says it could be from social media use and growing health and income disparities. The pandemic also played a role- beginning college or a career in a pandemic was just not the way to start. Housing prices, cost of living, loneliness epidemic, misinformation and social media negative effects add to this. At the same time there is an increase in benevolence among younger people aware of the situation they face and looking for ways to mitigate this. ...

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President Biden launches the US Asian Economic Framework during his visit to Tokyo. Biden's main achievement on his Asian trip is to lay the foundations for the economic framework of the free world democratic countries drawing in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, countries from ASEAN, in addition to the core of Japan and South Korea. India, Australia and New Zealand are now seen as part of the core group in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. By 2030 and 2040 this trip will be remembered for laying the foundations for the new economic relationships and supply chains in Asia, policies similar to that of Harry Truman after the Second World War that set the policies of US for the rest of the twentieth century. It is similar to the US EU Trade and Technology Council in setting a economic union of friendly free world countries in trade, technology, capital and supply chains. Four pillars are set by president Biden- digital policies, climate change action, supply chain renewal action, and transparency plus good governance. These are also the policies pursued by the Modi administration in India, which has set priorities in these four areas. The other aspects of the policies of president Biden are to set policies friendly to working families and set to promote worker incomes and conditions. ...

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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The Blinken Wang Yi meeting at the G-2- in Indonesia is the first high level meeting between US and China since March when the Ukraine war started. In the press briefing after the meeting Blinken said "more than four months into this brutal invasion the PRC stands by Russia." He pointed to Beijing support of Russia at the United Nations, dissemination of Russian talking points through Chinese state media and joint military exercizes with Moscow. One aspect of the relations that is beyond the control or good intentions of the two countries top diplomats is the tit for tat response that began with the presidency of Donald Trump. Trump may have seen this as a way to talk to the voter base fed up with two decades of one sided trade with China with manufacturing shipped out to China and local communities of families and workers in regions across the US losing jobs and in decline. Much of this shift was done by US companies during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations over two decades. The strident tone adopted by Trump was met by tit for tat responses in Chinese media till the pandemic when it assumed a new aspect of Chinese origins of the coronavirus. The result is that Sinophobia in the US is met by a response in Chinese media and in the thinking of the Chinese leadership under Jinping that now sees the relationship as having already shifted during the pandemic. The paradox in this is that the US in its effort to get other countries on its side is only beginning to make an effort of get America's own companies and large business investors on its side. Most American companies are still continuing trade and business with China as before.  The same situation exists with the shift of manufacturing from Japan and the European Union to China, with the loss of jobs and decline of local communities that depended on manufacturing. Japanese and European companies are acting in ways that are similar to American companies. Having managed the shift of manufacturing from European Union and Japan to China these companies have done little to change this business situation in 2022 carrying on as before. This is the paradox of the current situation that business both in the US and EU, and Japan is not on the side of their governments, even as their governments attitude to China, particularly now after the pandemic and the Ukraine war has shifted drastically. Alongside this is the popular opinion that has shifted gradually over the last 10 years in the US and EU, first in these very local communities that lost manufacturing to China, and then across broader sections of the public, and now across whole regions of America, Britain, the EU and Japan. This shift in popular opinion has little interest in the way business conducts business overseas or governments conduct diplomacy in nuanced statements. As a result neither the governments of the US, EU and Japan or the business of the US, EU and Japan are in control of this shifting situation that has its momentum and pace operating quite independently of governments and business. And public opinion across America, Europe, Japan, and also in India is moving in an entirely new direction.     ...

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Wessel describes the changes in American manufacturing as it goes through some of the same changes that happened in Germany in the years after reunification. With high unemployment German manufacturing companies worked with unions and the government for wage restraint over the last decade, resulting in wages barely keeping up with inflation. The increase in productivity and wage restraint helped Germany become more competitive with factories in Asia and Eastern Europe. Wages are now increasing with larger wage increase negotiated by the unions in Germany, as skilled labor is becoming scarce. In the U.S. Labor Department figures show an increase in output per hour in American manufacturing of 13% in the last 5 years and 21% in the five years before that. Typical of the wage changes in manufacturing- American Axle & Manufacturing plant in Three Rivers, Michigan hires assembly workers at $10 per hour, with older "legacy workers" making $18 per hour. General Electric brought back manufacturing work from Mexico paying workers $13 per hour for new hires, compared to to $21- $23 in prior years. At GM, Ford and Chrysler workers make $16-$19 per hour in base pay compared to older workers with legacy rates of $29-$33. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows earnings for production workers in manufacturing averaging $19.15 per hour in April, which is where they were in 2000 adjusted for inflation. The impact of this large increase in productivity with new machinery and production methods, and the wage reductions in manufacturing, is a return of offshored jobs. Wages increased in China and Mexico in the last decade. After a 35% decrease in the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. from 1998-2010, the number of jobs has increased by 4.3% to 11.9 million in April 2012, according to the Labor Department....

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In making his announcement to run for president in 2024 president Biden told a trade union audience that for Mr. Trump reviving American manufacturing was merely a punchline- not much happened. Krugman in this NYT report shows that Mr. Trump never acted seriously to directly make that happen. President Biden has passed legislation that creates trillions of dollars of investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, chips manufacturing, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing technologies. Krugman says in addition to what the government is spending private companies are also planning to invest trillions of dollars. As a result the US is in the process of building its manufacturing base for the first time after decades of neglect under the Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump administrations.  Economists have created a major handicap for investments in manufacturing with theories that are no longer relevant, and by their lack of understanding of the realities of workers and families in the US as manufacturing shriveled. They never figured into their analysis the loss of tax revenue base supported by factories in the US that led to disinvestment in towns and communities across the US. As public services and investment in these communities dwindled without the local revenues to support them. Mr. Krugman lacks the keen grasp of these issues that Biden as the longest serving Senator in the US has. Biden had so much time on the ground observing the situation in Scranton and other parts of Pennsylvania and Delaware, and much of the midwestern US seeing what happens first hand as factories close. Krugman is not able to make the case that manufacturing so truly needs. Yet even Krugman has some sense of the big changes underway in the US that Biden has created that will lead to the renewal of America. ...

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Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...

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With the gradual decline in the second wave of the coronavirus in India, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted some of the progress and the plan ahead -to achieve macroeconomic stability in the face of coronavirus spending and needs, the progress in GST for formalizing the economy and getting tax compliance, the infrastructure investment and forward looking timely completion of projects, increasing foreign direct investment flows into the economy, and making India an important part of the renewal of supply chains of America and Europe. The highest ever GST, Goods and Services Tax collection, helps build the framework for revenue to support investment in new infrastructure. Ease of doing business in India was a key goal to increase new inflows of foreign investment. Coordination of domestic and foreign trade and investment policy was part of the effort to build the environment for partnering with US and European Union countries, and UK, so that implementation in supply chain renewal could take place. ...

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Two parts per million of lead in cinnamon is the maxiumum that is considered normal. Five parts per million of lead in cinnamon is considered bad for health. Children are particularly affected by lead contaminated products. High lead contamination in applesauce product pouches lead to recalls by the US FDA recently. In the case of the cinnamon applesauce pouches this Washington Post report says federal investigators have called it "an act of economically motivsted adulteration." The European Union limits lead to 2 parts per million. McCormick & Company says it adheres to strict safety protocols and procures whole cinnamon bark rather than ground cinnamon to control adulteration and contaminant. Frontier Coop which sells brands Simply Organic and Aura Cacia says it tests for heavy metals and follows New York standard of one part per million of lead in spices. People are discouraged from buying in bulk for turmeric and cinnamon as this creates risks of contaminated or adulterated product. ...

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Nobel laureate Michael Spence says the structural problems in the U.S. economy will require structural solutions where government, business and labor come up with collective efforts to restore economic growth. This might take some time says Spence. Short term fiscal spending alone is not the answer for jobs growth. And it will take a joint concerted effort of government, business and labor. Part of the effort might include a period in which there is lower income growth to regain competitiveness. This would be similiar to what Germany accomplished in the last decade in which it faced high unemployment. The German government, labor unions and business forged a consensus which included wage restraint, changes in the labor market. This would have to be combined with government-business partnership to make investments in advanced manufacturing technology and other innovations to improve competitive position. Educational standards and productive skill development issues would have to be addressed to create new advantage for the U.S., just as emerging market economies are making new strides of their own....

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Democratic states face a sobering reality- can California, Minnesota, Illinois afford it? It turns out that they cannot and are diverting important funds away from the Nation's priorities in transportation, housing, education, rural healthcare. Here is what happened-- When California Gov. Newsom used state's Medicaid budget for poor citizens and disabled for illegal migrants to give free coverage, Medi-Cal went $6.2 billion over budget in 2025. In Illinois the program for Medicaid coverge to illegal migrants estimated at $112 million annually now costs $800 million and parts of it are now suspended. California had not thought this thing through, with free medical coverage not available to even citizens of the US, why would unrestricted borders not overwhelm a border state's Medicaid system signed into law by a Texan president Lyndon Johnson for the people of this Nation. Democratic States are running into a logical fallacy that the European Union and Germany are already experiencing, stretching straining public services, which has nothing to do with one's sentiments. Gov. Newsom now wants to give this benefit for $100 monthly premiums in 2027. ...

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EU Commission president Leyen announces Pfizer will supply EU with 1.8 billion doses of Pfizer vaccine to 2023. The increased supplies will include booster shorts to increase immunity. Another change is the new date for 70% of European Union population to be vaccinated, which is now advanced to end of July instead of end of September. With new waves of the coronavirus affecting Europe, and criticism of the EU's earlier effort in securing vaccine supplies, more urgency has gone into the new effort in 2021. Leyen told Pfizer CEO Albert Bouria- "If I may say so, engineer the mRNA in a way that it can adapt to potential escape vaccines," at a joint press conference. Leyen thanked Pfizer for its enormous effort in boosting vaccine manufacture and delivery. This will help accelerate the vaccination effort in Europe after the slow start in March and April of 2021. Bringing much needed optimism and new hope of a lasting recovery both in economic activity, health and in the mood in Europe, which can then spread from the US and Europe to the rest of the world. ...

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A recent WSJ report on the miscalculations on all sides on Ukraine show the errors by presidents Bush and Obama and German chancellor Merkel that created the situation that led to war in Ukraine- Ukraine not outside or inside but somewhere in the middle for joining NATO. This WSJ editorial says Obama policies reinforced by Angela Merkel's policies as four term German chancellor is one reason Mr. Putin was emboldened to launch the invasion of Ukraine.  Looking even further one sees American and German leaders integrating the economies of the US and Germany with that of China and Russia which also is one reason for emboldening Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Considering that Russian and Chinese leaders joined in a "no limits" alliance during Putin's visit to Beijing for the winter Olympics just before the invasion. Both Russia and China saw their countries as rivals to the US and European Union in political and economic terms even as Merkel and Bush-Obama supported growing integration of the US and EU economies with Russia and China, and saw no problem with that. ...

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China sees the situation in Hong Kong spiralling out of control after two months of protests and leading to a loss of China's sovereignty in Hong Kong. The Chinese official in charge of Hong Kong Affairs in the State Council, Zhang Xiaoming, met with the Hong Kong government representatives in Shenzen and made it clear offering a dire assessment and the most severe since China resumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 from Britain. Zhang stated- "If the situation worsens further, and there is turmoil that the Hong Kong government is unable to control, the central government absolutely will not just watch without doing anything." He also stated that the central government had enough strength to end the unrest, that the Party center and military force if necessary is behind the Hong Kong government. Wang Zhmin, China's top official in Hong Kong gives a better view of how this is seen in the Party in Beijing. He even called it a "life and death war" comparing it to the "color revolutions" the democratic movements that unseated governments in Georgia, Ukraine and Serbia. China sees this differently than western countries. With its long struggle against colonial rule in the territory controlled by Western powers along China's coastal region, China's ruling party leaders have a very different perception of the situation than is shown in most western media, particularly during the two decades of China's reconciliation with Japan and the U.S. in its effort to catch up. In the rest of the world the perception is very different. The use of a military garrison or riot police from other parts of China would affect China's image carefully built up over two decades of a peaceful developing country working hard to catch up in living standards and technology. As the economy slows to 5-6% the damage would be to business confidence and investment, and to Hong Kong's status as a world financial center. This could also affect China's relations with the U.S., European Union and Britain. with criticism on action by China. Unlike negotiations with Japan by Mr. Lighthizer for president Reagan, when Japan enjoyed a trade surplus such as that of China today (where there were no such issues with Japan as the U.S. had offered security guarantees to Japan), negotiations with China on trade could be affected by issues such as status of Hong Kong. This could lead to a worsening of trade relations, indefinite duration of tariffs and lack of any settlement on trade, further slowing the Chinese economy and hardening positions. ...

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The European Union plans to rebuild its solar panel industry by manufacturing in the home country. This means shifting away from supply channels where China controls 80% of production. Chancellor Merkel failed to see the risks of letting German companies be decimated by China's subsidy program supporting solar panel makers in China. A system of customs duties failed when China threatened to retaliate with duties on German car exports. In the end Germany like the US under president Obama and Trump after 2010 failed to support domestic solar panel makers.  Now subsidies are accepted way of competing with China for both the US and the EU. The US under the Biden administration is fully committed to compete with China by developing its own solar panel manufacturing industry with the kind of help China is giving to its own solar panel makers. The EU is following the same path. From 200 gigawatts in 2023 the EU's target is 600 gigawatts from solar by 2030. The 400 gigawatts will come from through a policy of make at home in the EU, including raw materials, polysilicon, wafers, and assembly. Subsidies are now the way the US and the EU plan to get back what they lost to China, their critical manufacturing advantage through errors in policy. The European Commission is also changing the rules to accomodate the move. A story of one more critical advantage surrendered through the orthodoxy of free markets without policymakers understanding what they were doing. ...

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The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

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  Newly elected US president says he wants to end the Ukraine war and save lives- 300,000 dead, twice that number wounded. The Wall Street Journal conducts this important interview with Retired Brigadier General Kimmett on Ukraine. He says- the Ukrainian goal of restoring sovereignty over eastern Ukraine is unrealistic. Did European Union and American leaders making a principle of sovereignty of borders, and then applying it over the Donetsk Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine which share Russian culture and language, make an error.  About 4/5th of Ukraine is away from the battlefield frontlines and not involved in the war. Ukrainians in younger ages 18-29 are needed to rebuild Ukraine and same to rebuild Russia after the war with serious losses on all sides. Europe does not have the excess capacity, the industrial capacity and capabilities to supply arms and other materials to Ukraine. The newly elected US president says he wants to end the war and his goal is to save lives- about 300,000 dead and twice that number wounded. He also wants to save US strained resources with DJT saying every visit of Ukraine leader costs US $60 billion. Ukraine can hold intact its positions through 2025. But the point of prolonging the war is the issue when the goal of restoring sovereignty over eastern Ukraine and Crimea is unrealistic, and won't happen. ...

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Ishaan Tharoor provides a brief history of Russia's intervention in Syria and its role in the Middle East since 1950. This does not mention the Dulles period under Eisenhower in U.S. politics when the U.S. engaged in the Cold War withdrew support for building the Aswan High Dam, thinking that the Soviet Union would not come up with support. The Soviet Union under Krushchev provided $1.2 billion at 2% interest in 1958 for building the Aswan High Dam- constructed from 1960-1970- which helped increase irrigation and crops in the Nile river region and reduced the damage from droughts and floods. Soon after the dam was built it provided about 50% of Egypt's electricity. This was the high point of Soviet Union's economic engagement, latter support was defined by military arms supplies and led to the Six Day War, and the economic stagnation of the economy under Nasser's successors from the military. The Soviet Union was actively engaged in Iran with a Russian and British zone in the country in 1907, soon after the flowering of an effort to write a democratic constitution 1900-1907 for Iran with the help of British intellectuals, similar to the failed effort of the Arab Spring today. In neighboring Afghanistan the Soviet Union fought a long war under Brezhnev, contributing to the unravelling of the economic structure of the Soviet Union before the fall of the Berlin Wall. The British were primarily focussed on protecting oil interests in Iran in the period 1900-1950, yet contacts with British civil society led to the first grasp of democratic constitution and processes in Iran during this period. The American intervention funnelling arms support to the Saddam regime in Iraq in a war Iraq initiated against Iran 1980-1988, marks a low point in American intervention similiar to the Russian intervention in Iran-Iraq-Syria today. It may also define some of the problems of today because of the length of that war, the entrenching of military in the government in Iran, suspicions of the U.S., and the possible sense of a need for nuclear weapons to prevent attacks on Iran, as Pakistan has done in its conflict with India, though this is rarely brought up in discussions. The American arms support intervention, led to a series of cascading conflicts since 1980 with the invasion of Kuwait by the Saddam regime in 1990, the destruction of Shia in the marshlands of Iraq after a flawed peace agreement, and the follow up to that conflict with George Bush's invasion of Iraq on grounds of WMD development in 2003 for the 2003-2011 Second Gulf War including the Surge. The arms support of the Saddam regime in the war it initiated against Iran, was policy designed under President Reagan 1980-1988 following the hostage crisis and the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979. The cascading crises with Iran and Iraq may not have led to this level of conflict and disruption, refugees and deaths in the Middle East, if American policymakers had heeded George Washington's advice during his presidency, that your enemy's enemy is not your friend when it comes to framing policy- for this reason Washington as president did not see it in the national interest to get involved in conflicts between Britain and France beginning in 1793, France having aided the American side against the British in the War of Independence. In the Proclamation of Neutrality, Philadelphia, April 22, 1993, he says: "Whereas it appears a state of war exists between Austria, Prussia, Sardinia, Great Britain and the United Netherlands, on the one part, and France on the other; and the duty and interest of the United States require, that they should with sincerity and good faith adopt and pursue a conduct friendly and impartial towards the belligerent powers.." And in a letter to Patrick Henry offering him the position of Secretary of State from Mount Vernon, October 9, 1795, Washington says: "My ardent desire is, and my aim has been, to comply strictly with all our engagements, foreign and domestic; but to keep the U States free from political connexions with every other Country. To see that they may be independent of all, and under the influence of none. In a word I want an American character, that the powers of Europe may be convinced we act for ourselves and not for others, this in my opinion is the only way to be respected abroad and happy at home and not by becoming the partizans of Great Britain or France, create dissensions, disturb the public tranquillity, and destroy perhaps for ever the cement which binds the Union." At a time of passionate political debate, it is time to step back and reflect on lessons that can be learned from the founding fathers about the way they tackled the important issues of their time....

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Next five year plan for China calls for more concentration on industry, dominance in key sectors identified by China such as rare earths, and more exports- not less in each of these areas. Chinese Communist Party is very conservative and once this has worked for China it is not going to change its reliance on exports even at the risk of leaving goods unsold in China or oversupply. The result is that the US effort to reduce the trade deficit, trying every tool in the book does not work, leading to an effort to resort to tariffs as a last resort to cut the unhealthy and risky $1 trillion trade deficit China has with the world. Has it worked? WSJ and other reports show that large companies are diversifying their supply channels, only smaller companies without the resources are sticking with China dependence for supplies. The tariffs themselves make headlines yet the US has made careful calculations not to upset relationships with key partners Britain, European Union, and Japan, keeping tariffs low at 10% with EU, and 15% with Japan which exports automobiles to the US to recover some of the years US made concessions to Japan. There are also loopholes on certain products where it is in the US interest to do so. As a result the effective tariff is 10-12.5% not 17-20% shown in reports. Of this 10% what is passed on to consumers is small- as in autos 80% of tariffs are not passed on by auto importers such as Toyota and Subaru because of the higher margins postpandemic. In retail only 30% is passed on again because of the post pandemic higher margins. The administration of DJT has also carefully worked with world oil suppliers to keep oil prices low, lower than in 2023-2024. The result is that inflation is at about 3% in September 2025. The idea that a capricious DJT is doing the tariffs is a myth as careful economic planners including Bessent, Jamieson, Lighthizer, and Luttnick, economic advisors in the Republican party, are carefully articulating the policy with room for DJT's political talk and appeal to public sentiment. ...

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Pope Francis spoke against the effort by the European Union bureaucracy to limit the use of "Happy Christmas" and called it a form of "ideological colonization." He told reporters "many, many dictatorships" had tried this and all had failed on a trip back from Greece and Cyprus. The European Union bureaucracy then withdrew the 32 page guide on use of sensitive language.  Francis said European Union was "necessary" but warned against the EU bureaucracy trying to iron out the differences of culture and religion around the EU bloc countries. "This could end up dividing the countries and causing it to fail. The EU must respect each country as it is structured and not make them uniform." One of the main influences for the European identity, of western civilization, is Christianity. Less known is that King Alfred in his reign 871-899 AD, in one of the most stirring periods of British history, relied on Christianity as a civilizing influence on tribes of the Nordic countries that were invading Britain. The same process of bringing a civilizing influence on heathen tribes happened in mainland Europe. And a similar process took place in India with Vedanta and Buddhism as it spread to China, Japan, Sri Lanka and the rest of Asia. Civilization meant education, learning, wisdom, and came at this time through the ideas of the Bible or the Upanishads, or the Buddhist ideas.  Alfred struggles with how that wisdom once lost, may be retrieved by being written in the English language from Latin. He writes during this period of tumult and invasions- Learning had declined so thoroughly in England, that there were very few people on this side of the Humber who could understand their divine services in English. There were so few of them that I cannot recall a single one south of the Thames when I succeeded to the kingdom. Thanks be to God Almighty that we have any supply of teachers at all! Therefore I beseech you to do as I believe you are willing to do, as often as you can, free yourself from worldly affairs so that you can apply that wisdom that God gave you where ever you can. Remember what punishments befell us in this world when we ourselves did not cherish learning nor transmit it to other men. We were Christians in name only and very few of us possessed Christian virtues." What a contrast from the time of Alfred when Christian thought was identified with learning and wisdom, and the loss of learning and wisdom felt so deeply in this way. In the 12th century Dogen brought Buddhist thought and learning from China to Japan, before that Bodhidharma from India to China in the sixth century AD, and Buddhist thought evolved out of the Upanishads in the 6th century BC, in the same spirit of reflection.   ...

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In another sign of how the capital allocation system is failing America and how capital markets are malfunctioning, this report in WSJ shows how capital of $346 billion in 2021, much of it needed for vital investments in renovating crumbling US infrastructure, in chips and science, in education, is being wasted. Vital needs are being ignored in America in education when only one thirds of eight graders are passing NAEP test reading comprehension in the US. No one talks about it yet it is a fact that cannot be ignored. Yet underinvestment in education, health, infrastructure and public services happens as wasteful investment takes place as hundreds of billions of capital is diverted into ventures that have little meaning. Shown here is a robotic pizza maker that is going out of business. The Internal Rate of Return for venture firms was negative 7% in the third quarter of 2022. As president Biden said in The State of the Union this year "free markets without competition is not capitalism it is extortion." There is no competition in the planned misallocation of this type that fails common sense,  American families and children,  as well as financial rates of return. ...

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India's development of the India Middle East Corridor with rail and infrastructure links is a plan that is pursued with cooperation of Saudis, UAE, Kuwait and Gulf region. This is an economic development plan that seeks to invest in the entire South and West Asian region. Just as Europe after 2 wars has emerged from that with the French, Germans, Spain, Italy and Eastern Europe forming  the European Economic Community that later became the European Union, the Gulf states and India which faces the Gulf states across the Arabian Sea are seen as one region that can trade with the European bloc and the US on better terms. A lot of the investments that were wasted in wars are now being channelled into infrastructure development and regional development with resources of manpower from India and with assistance from the US. Le Monde should say that it is good for all- geopolitics and socialist or religious ideologies led to so many wars in the Middle East. Modi is from Gujarat where priorities are not religion- priorities are trade and the economy since the overseas trade from the 14th century. ...