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The campaign rhetoric for renegotiating NAFTA and building a wall at the border has had a sharply negative effect on growth in Mexico. Growth slowed in 2016 and is expected to be close to zero in 2017 with declining foreign investment in the economy. The uncertainty is leading to sharp decline in foreign direct investment of 24% in the first 9 months of 2016, according to the Bank of Mexico. Further declines can be expected in 2017. The decline in the value of the peso of 16% since May 2016 has led to 6 interest rate increases in the past year. Inflation on annual basis was at 4.72% in Jan. 2017 and is rising. As Mexico depends on exports for one third of its output growth, and 80% is sent to the U.S., there is a need to diversify with trade agreements made with the European Union and other countries. Mexicans now question the value of NAFTA trade agreement as average growth of 2.6 since NAFTA was signed is below the 4.6% in the 2 decades prior to that. And poverty level is the same with about 60% of people in the underground economy. In addition crime, drug trade, a weak education system, weak rule of law, political corruption, show that Mexico has not made the progress since NAFTA that it should have made. ...

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US president Biden proposes to reduce the US deficit by $2 trillion by increasing taxes on American households worth more than $100 million that would apply to their earned income, and their unrealized gains on liquid assets like stocks. Biden also plans quadrupling the tax on stock buybacks by companies, a tax approved in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021. The deficit in 2023 will be about $1.4 trillion and rise to about $2 trillion, so that Biden's plan is to practically eliminate the  large deficit if the Republicans come on board. Republicans prefer cuts in spending. US companies have engaged in a dramatic increase in stock buybacks in recent years leading to calls for increasing the tax on stock buybacks. Biden says even high income households will not see an increase in their taxes, only the wealthiest households with over $100 million who have benefited vastly through the Reagan type policies of the last two decades. These households with over $100 million in assets will not be affected in the same way as students, workers, and middle income households are affected in shouldering a large part of the burden of these Reagan type policies that did not adequately fund education, healthcare, and manufacturing in communities across America. This was a period when Democrats in Congress awed by Reagan type policies failed to vigorously oppose policy that increased the US deficit and burden on households for health costs by not allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies. A senior AARP official says that when we talk about the Biden Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 the key component is the Medicare price negotiation with companies that is now law. Why Republicans and Democrats before Mr. Biden allowed such a gross distortion for two decades since 2001 that burdened ordinary  working Americans while neglecting American manufacturing, till Mr. Biden assumed the presidency, says much about the policies of the last two decades and how it has affected ordinary working families. Shriveling factory towns and creating much distress in these communities with these distortions that are a legacy of Reagan type laissez faire policies that government should do little. The result of these policies is that manufacturing is concentrated in only one country for the whole supply chain something that would never have happened with a thoughtful policy planning process. India and Vietnam are only today seen as alternatives for the supply chain in 2023 when policies were in place in these countries since 2014 for the supply chain to be distributed in a way that would be a win-win situation for all countries, avoiding the national security threats of today with overconcentration of manufacturing in China. This has not benefited China or the US because of the rancor and tension it has created. It was the fall of the Berlin Wall that created some of this awe for Reagan, when looking at it objectively it was nothing more than a course correction in Europe after the Hungarian revolution suppressed in 1956, Czech in 1968. It had little to do with what policies the US should pursue for workers and families, just as the war in Ukraine today remains another course correction in a different direction in Europe, and does not affect domestic policy in the US to build a better society for workers and families that Mr. Biden is doing. ...

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The legacy of U.S. president George H.W. Bush is a four year presidency that benefited from the growth under president Reagan and low inflation but was cut short in a loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, Persistent budget deficits and high unemployment were seen as a result of the supply side deficits Mr. Bush supported as vice president under Reagan, but derided as "voodoo economics" as president breaking his pledge of no new taxes to cut the deficit. The collapse of the savings and loan banks with poor lending happened during his administration, and was handled by Treasury officials including current Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Mr. Bush is chiefly remembered for his negotiating the issues leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of Germany. His handling of the Iraq war left a unstable situation in Iraq that led to a major problem for his son George Bush who became president after Bill Clinton, leading to a second and protracted costly war in Iraq. The effects of that conflict led to the changes in the Republican Party with its new leader Mr. Trump and a U.S. non-interventionist policy in foreign conflicts. Greg Ip points to the defict reduction as a positive contribution under the elder Bush, yet much of these gains were wasted in the costly Iraq conflict with U.S. hasty intervention. ...

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Next five year plan for China calls for more concentration on industry, dominance in key sectors identified by China such as rare earths, and more exports- not less in each of these areas. Chinese Communist Party is very conservative and once this has worked for China it is not going to change its reliance on exports even at the risk of leaving goods unsold in China or oversupply. The result is that the US effort to reduce the trade deficit, trying every tool in the book does not work, leading to an effort to resort to tariffs as a last resort to cut the unhealthy and risky $1 trillion trade deficit China has with the world. Has it worked? WSJ and other reports show that large companies are diversifying their supply channels, only smaller companies without the resources are sticking with China dependence for supplies. The tariffs themselves make headlines yet the US has made careful calculations not to upset relationships with key partners Britain, European Union, and Japan, keeping tariffs low at 10% with EU, and 15% with Japan which exports automobiles to the US to recover some of the years US made concessions to Japan. There are also loopholes on certain products where it is in the US interest to do so. As a result the effective tariff is 10-12.5% not 17-20% shown in reports. Of this 10% what is passed on to consumers is small- as in autos 80% of tariffs are not passed on by auto importers such as Toyota and Subaru because of the higher margins postpandemic. In retail only 30% is passed on again because of the post pandemic higher margins. The administration of DJT has also carefully worked with world oil suppliers to keep oil prices low, lower than in 2023-2024. The result is that inflation is at about 3% in September 2025. The idea that a capricious DJT is doing the tariffs is a myth as careful economic planners including Bessent, Jamieson, Lighthizer, and Luttnick, economic advisors in the Republican party, are carefully articulating the policy with room for DJT's political talk and appeal to public sentiment. ...

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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The surprise is the DJT Senate bill cuts to about 75% of the solar and wind subsidies in the Biden 2022 IRA Act for $843 billion in investments that were going to Republican districts. New rules in the Senate version of 3B Tax Cuts Bill require US renewable solar to disentangle supply chain from China by 2027 or face an excise import tax. All renewable subsidies will also be phased out earlier by 2027 instead of 2032 set by the Biden administration in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 with subsidies, tax credits for renewables solar and wind led to $843 billion in planned solar and wind investments. Suddenly much of this is placed in doubt. Instead of 2032 phase out the date is moved up to end of 2027 for 30% subsidies and to end of 2028. The result is confusion in the renewables industry and opposition to the excise tax for not disentangling from China supply chain by end of 2027 spreading to the US Chamber of Commerce. ...

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How to keep confidence in the dollar and stabilize its value by cooperating with the ECB and the Bank of Japan to stabilize a sinking dollar. A sinking dollar would add to inflation in the US and undermine confidence.

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Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke said the Fed would target a 2% inflation rate and keep short term interest rates near zero till late 2014. Eleven of seventeen Fed officials at a two day policy meeting ending Jan. 25, 2012 supported this policy. The announcement is part of the Fed's new communications policy which hopes to lower long term rates to stimuate growth and employment by signalling intentions on rates on a longer term basis. The Federal Reserve has lowered its estimate for growth in the U.S. to between 2.2-2.7% in 2012 from 2.5-2.9%.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's forecast for the American economy is for growth in GDP of 2.2%-2.7% for 2012, wih unemployment of 8.2-8.5% by the end of 2012. The Commerce Dept. estimates for GDP growth are 3.0 percent annual rate for the 4th quarter 2011. Fed chairman Bernanke remains cautious about the economic prospects for 2012. Higher oil prices are expected to push inflation above the 2.0% Fed target for 2012. Bernanke's description of the recovery in early 2012 is that it is "uneven and modest" and unlikely to improve much for unemployment.

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European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure, says the ECB will act quickly on a program to buy government bonds, so as not to fall behind the curve in taking action. He said the ECB had a moral and legal responsibility to act, considering the low annualized inflation of 0.3% in November 2014. Analysts say this could come as early as Jan 22, at the next ECB meeting, because the meeting in March may be too late. Coeure pointed out that the design of the program will be made in the manner similiar to that of the Outright Monetary Transactions Program of 2012, so that broad consensus is achieved. The ECB's staff is currently working on this. The U.S. and Japan have implemented monetary easing programs with quantitative easing, and the ECB is now moving in this direction to increase growth and bring inflation to about 2%. The ECB also now plans to put out detailed policy minutes after each meeting. The euro is expected to weaken further below $1.24 with the announcement of the program....

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It is about the fighting spirit of FDR and reviving and renewing the New Frontier of John F. Kennedy that was muddled by the Vietnam War. As Frank Bruni in NYT, and many others are saying US president Biden seen along with the team of Jake Sullivan at NSA, Anthony Blinken at State, Janet Yellen at Treasury, and Katherine Tsai at USTR, Pat Schumer Majority Leader in the US Senate and other cabinet members may be the best team in terms of experience and talent that the US has had in many decades, combining relative youth (Sullivan and Tsai) with many years of experience (Schumer, Yellen and the president). The president's experience in US Congress for about 40 years was invaluable in getting through Congress the Chips and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the assistance to families during the pandemic. Only LBJ in recent post war American history had this kind of experience in getting Medicare and Social Security legislation through Congress. Combining this with the experience and negotiating skill for legislation of Pat Schumer Senate Majority Leader is something not seen since the 1960's. This team comes with a clear dedication and plan to restore democracy to the people by building infrastructure, rebuilding American manufacturing and protecting workers and families through cost of living action and higher wages. As Jake Sullivan NSA, a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice, and one who with the advice of the president has put domestic policy at the heart of foreign policy, puts it for workers and families in the US, these are goals he said at Brookings, "we must, we will achieve." Compare that with every other administration since FDR and Kennedy/LBJ for workers and families everything pales in comparison.  ...

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The Chief Economic Adviser to the Indian Government Mr. Anantha Nageswaran, makes these comments on the economy of India before the presentation of the new Budget for April 2023 to March 2024. The Economic Survey of India states that "India is prepared to grow at its potential once the one-off shocks of the Covid pandemic and of the supply chain recede." He sees the sweeping effects of the reforms across multiple dimensions taken from 2016 to 2022 having a lag effect and now making their impact. This means that potential growth can go up to 7 or 8% with macroeconomic improvement, fiscal improvement, infrastructure efforts, women's employment, and getting rid of LIC (License, Inspect and Compliance) across local, state and central levels. He says the central bank estimate of 6.8% retail inflation for 2022-2023 is outside its target range but yet not high enough to deter private consumption, and no low enough to weaken the inducement to invest. He says slower growth in the world including the US will bring two advantages for India- low oil prices and a better current account deficit situation.  ...

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Paul Krugman says in this column in the NYT that Biden's policies for trade reflect a stronger conviction for protecting American technologies and building its manufacturing base than previous administrations including the Trump administration. With less rhetoric and with quiet determination Biden has placed American domestic manufacturing as a requirement for renewable subsidies for new electric vehicles manufacturing and sale in the Inflation Reduction Act. In the Chips and Science Act Biden has placed US semiconductor technology promotion and manufacturing at the core of the Act. Krugman says this was the right thing for Biden to do. The renewable subsidy comes from ordinary Americans paying taxes who would benefit most from new jobs created in the electric vehicle industry. China has gained such a big lead in semiconductor chips manufacturing and materials by supporting its industry, that it is the right thing to do to give American manufacturers the same kind of support. Trade rules were about creating a level playing field, yet previous administrations failed to create that level playing field, and the Biden administration has boldly made its point clear. ...

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The US Fed under Jerome Powell is going to raise interest rates one more time in 2023 following rate increases in 2022- by a quarter percentage point this week. This is not only a fight against inflation but a way to reverse a situation that has affected the wealth and standard of living of ordinary Americans by reducing interest on savings to a paltry less than one percent. Only stock market investors benefitted under the previous regime widening income and wealth disparities in America. Just as today's story in the WSJ showing Bath and Body Works returning to basics such as producing soap in America, something that would not even have been given a second of thought in the 1900's, the Fed is doing its job under Jay Powell of going back to the basics. Where interest on savings provided retirees a comfortable stress free retirement and the inducement to save help build a savings pool in America to invest in what really improves the standard of living for all Americans across this country, from rural to urban, from all parts of the land. ...

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Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

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Jimmy Carter dies peacefully at his home in Plains, Georgia, at age 100 in Christmas week 2024. He was president following Nixon-Gerald Ford and a crisis of confidence in the US after Watergate scandal and as a southern peanut farmer from Georgia brought a period of renewal to political life in the country. He became a one term president with the election of Ronald Reagan during a period of high inflation and a challenge from Edward Kennedy during the primaries. His greatest success was after leaving office when he tackled health epidemics in Africa and helped stabilize democratic governments by acting as observer in elections around the world. His legacy is a lasting one and shows the power of good works as shown in the spiritual heritage of the Nation. Reagan, Bush Sr and Bush Jr, Obama either started the wars or failed to end the wars that dragged on after Jimmy Carter left office sapping the vital energies of the Nation. Only now under Biden and Trump are these wars coming to an end. And new effort is going into reviving America as an economic powerhouse improving the lives of its people. ...

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...

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Differences between the U.S. and Germany at the Munich Security Conference on the approach to a settlement in Ukraine. Russia wants more autonomy for the rebel held areas and continues the flow of arms and men to eastern Ukraine. Russia's economy has been hurt to a limited extent by sanctions and larger extent by the plunge in crude oil prices, with inflation at about 15% in Feb 2015. Relations with the U.S. and Germany are at a low point, making negotiations more difficult. With Russia calling the conflict a civil war, and Ukraine's currency plunging, and the U.S. considering sending arms to Ukraine, France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel personally conduct difficult negotiations in Moscow in Feb. 2015. Merkel tells the Munich Security Conference that "this cannot be won militarily," as the reason to oppose U.S. sending arms to Ukraine. And Vice President Biden says he agrees, yet he says its important "to be equally clear: We do not believe Russia has the right to do what they're doing." U.S. Senator Graham supports sending arms aid. Senior officials say the Hollande-Merkel peace initiative gets some help from the U.S. approach as all earlier settlements have not been carried out by Russia....

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Haruhiko Kuroda, 68 years old, a senior finance ministry expert who ran the ministry's currency policy as vice finance minister for 4 years in the early 2000's, is prime minister Abe's nominee for central bank chief. He lectured at Hitoshibashi University for two years before becoming the head of the Asian Development Bank. His book "Success and Failure in Fiscal and Monetary Policy," is critical of the Bank of Japan for mistakes in being first too accomodative in monetary policy to set up the 1987 crash, and then tightening too quickly leading to the deflation and recessions of the last two decades. By choosing an expert with a long experience in the field of monetary policy and a vigorous advocate of getting things right to shake off the deflationary trends, Abe is sending a strong signal to financial markets. Kuroda says he is looking at a shorter time frame to achieve a 2% target for inflation- about two years. In essence Kuroda is taking a page from the policy book of a small group of MIT trained economists, Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve, Draghi at the European Central Bank, and Mervyn King at the Bank of England to boost domestic economies in the context of increasing global growth. The yen weakened to 94.77 to the dollar on Feb 25, 2013, after the announcement. Abe's nominee for one of two deputy governor appointments is Kikuo Iwata, a 70 year old economist who was also critical of Bank of Japan monetary policy since the 1990's. The Abe administration has also carefully communicated this message. Speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. Abe said Japan's goal was to increase exports, but at the same time it will increase imports which should benefit the U.S., China, India and other countries. He described a recovery in Middle America from the Dakotas to the Carolinas and sees something like this happening also in Japan. Even the appeals to nationalist sentiment are also coupled with the message to China and S. Korea of not climbing up the escalation ladder and seeking good relations to promote mutually beneficial development. Abe's focus is on building the U.S.- Japan relationship....

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DJT takes action on Venezuela for not taking action fast enough to accept deportees from the eight million that left the Latin American country over the last 10 years because of mismanaging the economy, runaway inflation and repression of dissent. He also cited that free and fair elections were not honored by the regime of president Maduro who followed after the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2013.

The US immigration problem comes largely from the Venezuela problem. What happened there hurt the US with the flow of millions of migrants across the border from Venezuela and gangs other elements entering the US. 

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The U.S. Fed FOMC's decision to continue paring bond purchases by $10 billion monthly. Fed chairman Bernanke said in 2011 responding to criticism from other countries -"it is upto emerging markets to find the appropriate tools to balance their own growth." The Fed Open Market Committee voted 10-0 to continue tapering bond purchases, by reducing it to $65 billion a month from $75 billion a month. The Fed is forecasting growth for 2014 of 3% in 2014 and over 3% in 2015 can be made without sparking inflation. 2013 growth estimated by the Commerce Dept is 2.7%.

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This Journal editorial which advises patience, comes on the day after the U.S. Senate voted 79-19 to move forward with a bill on sanctions against China for undervaluation of the yuan. The editorial says the Chinese currency has come down 30% since 2005, and inflation in China is reducing the advantage China gains by keeping its currency valuation low. Over time the editorial suggests China will see a decline in trade surpluses similiar to the experience with Japan, and emphasizes the importance of the two leading trading nations U.S. and Britain not repeating the experience of the 1930's with the Smoot-Hawley retaliatory tariffs legislation. The Journal quotes American economic historian Charles Kindleberger: "When every country turned to protect its national private interest, the world public interest went down the drain, and with it the private interests of all."

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Kessler says the assumption that pension systems such as Calpers (California Public Employees Retirement System), can make returns of 7.5% is fantasy considering that U.S. Treasury bonds are yielding 1.74%. Calpers reduced its expected rate of return on its portfolio to 7.5% fom 7.75% in June 2012. Public pension funds in Illinois use 8.18% for expected returns. U.S. public companies with defined benefit pension plan assets of $1.3 trillion use an expected rate of return of 7.5%, even though these assets have return of 5.6% since 2000. Kessler's estimate for expected rate of return is about 3%- fixed income yielding negative real rates of return and pulling returns down. For equities he estimates return at the total of inflation component at +2%, productivity component at +2%, and multiple expansion at -1% because interest rates are at zero.

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Paul Krugman in NYT explains the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. He says the bank invested its money in safe Treasury bonds which fell in value with Fed's policy of sharp increase in interest rates to fight inflation. It presented itself as the bank for people in Silicon valley and succeeded more than it imagined possible leading to these investors putting their money at SVB bank. However Krugman points out SVB bank did not put this money from deposits into startups, it put these deposits in safe US Treasury assets. It is Venture Capital that put its money in the startups at Silicon Valley, then panicked and set in motion a bank run that led to $42 billion withdrawals on one day Thursday March 9. These SVB assets have value says Krugman. Over time the government says Krugman will get much of its money back from these Treasury assets of SVB.  Then why the government rescue by president Biden? A bank run of this type undermines confidence in other regional banks affecting the US banking system in a way that is totally unnecessary when the banking system as a whole is safe. In fact the Fed vice chairwoman Lael Brainard understood and made clear these risks says Krugman, and she now heads Biden's national Economic Council.   ...

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Adjusted for inflation wages for automakers have fallen 19% since 2008 because of tiers new workers making about $17 an hour significantly less than the $32 an hour. UAW seeks an end to tiered hiring.  For GM it is about committing to a long term contract in an industry that is unpredictable and uncertain. GM wants to make substantial investments in the EV industry with president Biden's help even when not making profits from EV's. For the UAW Ms. Janis of Jobs to Move America says labor is a very small part of what it costs to make EV's, batteries are the most. None of the earlier difficulties are likely because much fewer workers are needed making labor cost a much smaller component. Toyota has been slow in its EV start, BYD in China is leading but US carmakers are supported by the US government for EV's. Auto workers want a fair contract . And GM working with partners can still build joint venture factories for batteries in the South just like Tesla where work is not unionized. In the competition in EV's R&D and quality of management will play a bigger role. Fairness for workers will motivate American carmakers, with worker training and quality+value of EV's important for success.   ...