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Arne Duncan, U.S. Secretary of Education, on the flaws in the No Child Left Behind Act that need to be corrected.

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Morse's reasoning and figures for a fall in oil prices by the end of this year and eventually settling down in the $90 price range? On the supply side he sees the OPEC decision to last year withhold oil production increases and this year's decision to put more oil on the market putting an additional 1.2 million barrels a day on the supply side. About 500,000 barrels a day are added to this from Iraq as security improves in Iraq to make this 1.7 million barrels a day. And refined product with refining capacity for the heavier crude has increased creating more competition among refiners leading to refined product increases lagging behind crude price increases. Add to this the large investments in the middle east and especially in Saudi Arabia to increase production, also in places like Nigeria and Angola, says Morse. On ther demand side he sees an astonishing decline of as much as 900,000 barrels a day year over year from 2008 over 2007 in the USA as fuel conservation is kicking in. On this score he sees a decline in oil price even if this decline had not happened in the USA. (From the video interview). This underscores the importance of everything else that is happening. He sees demand in China declining after the Olympics. The Chinese economy will slow as the Indian economy is already doing and oil imports will decline for China. At this point demand from India, China and other developing countries says Morse is increasing at 1 million barrels a day year over year and will now head downward. A couple of points are relevant in this context. One is that credit contraction in one study by University of Chicago economist Anil Kashyap is expected to be $1 trillion, in recent BW report on the economic situation and banks lending. With such a big impact industrial production by the end of this year and into 2009 will be severely impacted, especially as other countries in the EU and Asia are affected. This plus the dramatic nature of the shift to smaller cars as companies like Ford and its CEO Alan Mulaly vow to transform their production by 2009 to smaller cars is sure to bring further declines in demand. See recent statements by Mulaly and Ford. Morse's credentials show that he brings experience un teaching monetary policy at Princeton, as well as experience going back to being Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for international energy policy in the Carter administration , cofounder of consultants PFC Energy and publisher of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, following the petroleum industry for many years. He has in the past predicted the emergence of Russia as a dominant oil supplier rivalling Saudi Arabia, and predicted the oil price increases based on fundamentals. So as he says the oil price has always been affected by fundamentals, that being the reason for the oil price increases in the last few years and now the moderating influences that reverse someof these oil price increases in the coming year and continue to exercize that moderating effect in coming years. ...

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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Gates experience one rainy night in March, at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, welcoming 4 dead soldiers who lost their lives to a roadside bomb on a rutted road near Jalalabad, Afghanistan, provides an insight into what he sees as important for the US military. One is to address the realities of the war that is facing the US in the now, not some theoretical conventional war as the Pentagon is overly focused on. This war is fought in insurgencies in Iraq and in the Pakistan-Afghanistan area. And even the takeover of nuclear weapons by Taliban, is not ruled out with the collapse of the government in Pakistan. So he sees reason for doing things quickly. At Dover that night, Gates expressed his anger to his staff, "find out why they had'nt gotten their goddamn MRAP's yet (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles). Gates went into the 747 carrying the draped coffins, and knelt alone and prayed for 5 minutes. Gates was President of Texas A&M University, before he took the assignment at Defense during the last 2 years of the Bush administration. He knows the ways of the bureaucracy, and is a persistent and effective when faced with lack of cooperation and delays. When the field commanders in Afghanistan said they needed 40 Predator combat air patrols instead of the 12 they had, Gates went around the bureaucratic delays and had his task force set up and and doing problem solving down to details. They went about getting more flying time, and pilots, and control stations in the air force to support this. He keeps presentations limited to 45 minutes, and inists all slides be turned in the day before, for him to look over carefully. And he is decisive in making changes. The Army Secretary was asked to come to Washington immediately, and fired on the spot, not Gates says for the appalling conditions at Walter Reed Army Hospital, but for not acknowledging that problems existed and taking quick action to fix them. And Gates is using the 2010 Defense budget to steer away from large scale conventional weapons programs, and get more money for the immediate needs of the field commanders in the wars being fought today. He makes it clear in talking with lawmakers, that "listening to our troops and commanders, unvarnished and unscripted, has from the moment I took the job been the greatest single source of ideas on what the department needs to do." In doing this he has to face up to the bureaucracy and set ways of doing things at the Defense Department, things that were never questioned under his predecessor Rumsfeld. In 2008 the generals who run the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps formally "non-concurred" with the classified version of Gates's National Defense Strategy, which said it was necessary "to take additional acceptable risk" in the area of conventional war so that the military could improve its ability to fight irregular wars. Gates met with all the defense chiefs to listen to their objections, and decided to draw his own conclusion after thinking it over, that the reasons given "were non-compelling," considering the grave dangers that the military was facing in existing wars. Gates is convinced that its his job to give the troops in the field the equipment and resources they need, and he is not letting the military brass or officials block the way. He does not let the criticism affect him. Gates is very quiet when he listens to arguments presented on the other side that he does not share, responding in a thoughtful and controlled manner. Last week, Jaffe of the WPost says, Gates flew to Afghnistan to ask for the resignation of Gen McKiernan the field commander there, a man he had chosen 11 months earlier, but now felt was the wrong man for the job. During this trip he visited a new base being built in southern Afghanistan, and met four marines whose MRAP vehicle took the blast from a roadside bomb, all survived with minor scratches and injuries, and one broken arm. Gates was mightily pleased. ...

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Tom Donilon, is national security advisor to President Obama. His experience includes working as chief of staff for Warren Christopher in the Clinton administration, and 8 years as an executive at Fannie Mae before being brought into the Obama circle by Rahm Emmanuel as deputy to national security advisor Gen. Jones. Robert Gates view was that Donilon would be "a disaster." His early experience as a political operative for the Carter campaign to his work for the 1988 Biden presidential campaign, and work at Fannie Mae as a business executive, suggests lack of experience in foreign affairs needed for this role. A focus on efficiency and being able to sync with Obama's thinking on foreign affairs may not be the qualities needed in this critical role.

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This WSJ editorial says president Obama's inaction, including the smaller step of not putting in place a safe zone in Syria, comes at a price for Liberals. The recent action by Governors in Michigan and other states turning down Syrian refugees, it says is one of the moral consequences of Obama's policies. For Liberals it says a policy of inaction and turning America's back to the needs of ordinary Syrians during the Arab Spring is not neutral, it also has consequences. The consequences for Liberals is the steady stream of refugees to Europe, and the greater intolerance in western societies as the safe havens created by these policies in the Middle East lead to terrorist actions in Europe or the U.S. In short doing little or nothing carries risks for the kind of society liberals want to see. Through developing policy in response to the Bush Administration's policies the Obama administration makes a series of errors of its own that compromise liberal values, including the collapse of the Arab Spring without American and western support, and the creation of a huge refugee crisis in Syria, Iraq, with a spillover to Jordan and Turkey, and further spillover to Europe. Liberals in Europe also face a similiar situation, including Liberals in France....

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A report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows growing income inequality in 34 OECD countries. OECD Secretary General, Angel Gurria says: "The social contract is starting to unravel in many countries. This study dispels the assumptions that the benefits of economic growth will automatically trickle down to the disadvantaged and that the greater inequality fosters greater social mobility. Without a comprehensive strategy for inclusive growth, income inequality will continue to rise." Countries with the largest ratios between incomes at the top and the bottom, are the United States, Turkey and Israel, roughly 14 to 1. Germany, Denmark and Sweden have ratios of 6 to 1, with their ratios up from the 1980's. Gaps in Chile and Mexico are at 25 to 1. The study covers the period from 1980 to 2008. Overall inequality went up by 25% in the U.S. from 1980. In 2008 the top ten percent in the U.S. earned $114,000, 15 times than incomes for the bottom 10%. The top 1% of Americans saw incomes go up from 1980 to 2008, increasing from 8 percent to 18 percent. The richest 1% having $1.3 million in after tax income, and the lowest 20% making $17,700. The trends have accentuated an increase at the highest end- the top 1% and top 10% of the people- and a sharp decrease for the bottom 20%, which can be grasped from the $17,700 and the $1.3 million, both at extreme ends. The study attributes the rise in inequality to a growing gap in wages for highly skilled workers as technology advances, a surge in foreign direct investment and a looser regulatory regime that reduces employee protections leading to wage premiums for financial jobs and smaller incomes for workers at the bottom. Income groups and professions and sectors that had the greatest influence in government were able during this period to get the greatest protection for incomes, and able also to maximize their incomes. Incomes in the financial sector increased dramatically in the last decade, as a result of deregulation leading to higher risk and speculative activities in the financial sector, leading to the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Financial crises further depress incomes at the lower end. Similiar income inequality trends can be seen for India and China. China has a Ginni coefficient of 0.5 according to researchers at Beijing Normal University, up from 0.3 three decades ago- a Ginni Coefficient above 0.4 is considered destabilizing. Another factor that played a part in these countries is corruption and lobbying by special interests for favored treatment of sectors or groups. Austerity measures taken in Europe and in the U.S. are likely to widen income gaps by depressing the lower end income groups, creating social unrest, especially in the absence of efforts to stimulate growth....

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The Washington Post's editorial board offers insights on how the situation in Syria and Iraq deteriorated under the Obama administration's policies.

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A Syrian opposition group describes the mislabeling of opposition groups in Syria by the Obama administration.

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Hoover Institution scholar Fouad Ajami describes in this essay how a more active policy by the Obama administration could have prevented the chaotic situation in the Middle East, the sectarian conflict, the breakup of Syria and Iraq, the increase in terrorism eventually affecting France and the U.S., and the refugee crisis in Europe. This active policy he says would have included- keeping some presence in Iraq, and taking action to prevent the spread of the conflict by restraining regional and foreign powers and terrorism.

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Britian's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, on the economic recovery in Britain. He points to total public spending under control, with it dropping from 45% when the Tories entered government to 36.4% in 2015. He also points to the drop in the unemployment rate and the economic plan to cut the remaining budget deficit and show a surplus. This puts Britain in the best position to spend more on defense, says Osborne. Osborne makes a commitment to spend 2% of national income on defense, and raise Britain's defensive and offensive capabilities. This includes buying 138 F35 aircraft from the U.S. manufactured in the U.S. and Britain, and a fleet of maritime patrol aircraft, increasing cybercapabilities by over 75%. It would be backed up by spending 0.7% of national income on overseas development to back hard power with soft power.

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Arne Duncan describes the improvements in K-12 education in two regions of the U.S.- the District of Columbia and Tennessee between 2011 and 2013, shown by the 2013 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The hard work of educators, parents and school officials is paying off and offers examples for other parts of the country, says Duncan. Lessons include facing the facts, not dumbing down by setting low standards. With higher standards Tennessee students were only 34% proficient in math and 45% in reading compared to the 91-92% with lower standards. Republicans followed up on the work of Democrats in the state. Soliciting feedback from critics and experts- the feedback was used to improve systems and learning to help teachers and students. Schools chancellor Kaya Henderson says improving teacher quality was critical, and so was academic rigor. Still Duncan says more needs to be done, this only shows the right direction for states lagging behind, and one should not get complacent. The other areas college enrollment and dropout rates need to be followed carefully. International PISA results still show the U.S. at 27th in math and 14th in reading of 65 countries- making this only the beginning in setting the future course for U.S. educational improvements....

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Though it would appear that Poilievre is a new face in Canadian politics suddenly leading Justin Trudeau by 29% in some polls for prime minister, he is a young highly experienced Alberta politician since age 25. And is married to Anaida Galindo who immigrated at age 8 in 1995 from Caracas, Venezuela to Montreal. Pierre Poilievre is the adopted son of schoolteachers from Alberta. He was active in politics at the University of Calgary, Alberta, obtaining a BA in international relations and being part of  Reform party that considered the progressive Conservative Party unprincipled. He was elected to the Canadian parliament from Carleton-Nepean in 2004 for Conservative party and in subsequent elections won this seat by over 50% of the vote, becoming the youngest member of the Canadian parliament  at age 25. He was appointed Parliamentary Secretary to a ministry, to the prime minister, and Minister of state for Democratic Reform of the Canadian Senate, during the years  Stephen Harper of the Progressive Conservative Party was prime minister 2005-2015. Shadow Minister of Finance 2017-2022. Polievre has not hesitated to make his opinion felt and in 2022 he supported the truckers Freedom Convoy. Following that he was elected leader of the Opposition with Justin Trudeau as Liberal party prime minister.  He is married to Anaida Galindo in 2017 who worked for Canada's Senate in Ottawa. She had immigrated at age 8 years in 1995 with her parents from Caracas, Venezuela, where her father was a bank manager. ...

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The Obama administration makes the decision on June 13, 2013, to supply arms to Syrian opposition forces to the Assad regime and enforce a limited no-fly zone inside Syria. The decision comes as forces of the Assad regime make gains over poorly armed opposition forces and threaten the Syrian opposition's base in the city of Aleppo.

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An exceptional journalism story of what happened on Sept 16 and September 17, 2008, and the aftermath, by Pulliam, Rappaport, Lucchetti, Strasburg and McGinty, when Morgan Stanley stock lost more than half its value and was at risk of collapsing. What caused the collapse in price? This article shows how the biggest names in financial institutions were buying protection with credit default swaps, and as the price of these swaps skyrocketed on Sept 16 and Sept 17, the shortselling in Morgan Stanley's shares also skyrocketed. Shortselling on Sept 17 reaching nine times the normal, with 39 million shares sold short adding to the 31 million shares sold short in the prior two days, according to trading records examined by WSJ. It was at this point, on the pleas of John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley, the SEC stepped in to temporarily suspend short selling. It is hard to clearly isolate the shortselling that went on for protection, from the shortselling for speculation, but hedge funds were involved and some of the shortselling was done to make a quick profit. Citigroup has faced the problem of losing half the share's value in a couple of days in the week of November 17, and shortselling in Citigroup's shares contributed to the collapsing stock. See the 3 graphs setup to show the influence of credit default swaps on short selling, and the on share price for Morgan Stanley. On Monday November 24, the government announced a rescue plan for Citigroup. That the uptick rule has not been reinstated as yet, means that when one looks back at this period a few years from now it will show errors in handling this economic and financial markets crisis were made, different from that in the 1930's, but with serious consequences. ...