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Forecasts show global oil output exceeding demand by 630,000 barrels a day for the fourth quarter of 2012. This is partly the result of extra oil supplies coming in from Saudi Arabia to counter the situation with Iran at the same time as oil demand is slowing with the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China. Prices of crude declined to $85.73 a barrel on the Nymex, and $107.85 for Brent crude on the ICE Futures Exchange on Oct. 24, 2012. Goldman Sachs cut the 2013 price forecast for Brent crude to $110 a barrel from $130. Earlier the QE III monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve had rallied oil prices because of a weakening of the dollar.

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Bruce Reidel, Obama administration advisor on the war in Afghanistan, conducted a policy review in 2009. He says a policy of engagement he advised in 2009 now needs reshaping. He points to recent events that show the Pakistani ISI and the military who run Pakistan are in direct conflict with U.S. policy in the region. Especially after the attacks on the U.S. embassy in Kabul and the killing of a former Afghan president who was expected to lead peace talks. Reidel says this requires a reshaping of U.S. policy and a policy of containment which would reduce military assistance to Pakistan, and at the same time shape policies that would help the people of Pakistan, such as reducing tariffs on textiles.

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The prospect of a combined vote of 30-35% for both major political parties of Samaras and Venizelos, with the rest of the vote splintered among right and left wing parties, in the 2012 Greece elections. This will make governing with austerity measures even more difficult.

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Pope Francis is strongly critical of the manner in which the capitalist system has functioned in recent decades, increasing inequality, and hurting the marginalized, the working class and poor. Pope Francis tells people during his visit to the poorest countries in Latin America, Ecuador, Bolivia and Paraguay, that the Catholic Church committed grave errors during the period of Spanish colonialism by allying with the ruling classes and creating great inequalities and suffering. The director of the Institute for Policy Research and Catholic studies at Catholic University of America, Stephen Schneck, says the Pope is reflecting a century of activism on social issues since the Pope Leo XIII encyclical in 1891, calling for social and economic fairness for labor, with the encyclical "Rerum Novarum" - or "On the Condition of Labor." The Pope's message in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, to nearly 2000 social activists, farmers and trash workers, neighborhood activists, was that change has to come from grassroots, that the local communities have acquired the knowledge which is valuable to act for economic and environmental betterment. He praised cooperatives and local organizations that enhanced the value of labor. His message resonates say Catholics because he has stayed in close contact with local communities, and the poor, working class people in Argentina. It is focussed on empowerment of local communities. In Bolivia the left government has adopted measures that attract foreign capital and investment, so that it is a model that stays away from socialist ideology, while at the same time embracing the grassroots idea of empowering local people and communties. In this way it has improved living standards in Bolivia and received favorable ratings in capital markets....

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Questions being raised about the Obama administration's approach to the war in Syria.

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Schmidle describes how the militancy in Pakistan's border provinces is shifting to younger people who continue fighting the old battles against America and the West. He observes the opening of a campaign office of the Islamist party, the Jamiat Ulema -e-Islam or J.I.I., from a crowded rooftop in Quetta, Baluchistan, where this party runs the provincial government. The rhetoric against the U.S. is mild compared to earlier years, as a new election approaches. In the last election the Islamist parties under the alliance Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal, won 10% of the vote with pro-Taliban sentiment running high. The MMA alliance ran two provincial governments. Now there is asplit in the Islamist parties, between the factions working within the democratic process and other factions including younger militants who are against Musharraf and elections. This comes after the shooting of Benazir Bhutto by militant Islamists.

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A Syrian opposition group describes the mislabeling of opposition groups in Syria by the Obama administration.

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Ali Gomaa, the grand mufti of Egypt, gives his ideas on Articles 2 of the 1971 Constitution (which established Islam as the religion of the state), and Article 7 of the interim Constitution (which guarantees equal citizenship before the law, regardless of religion). As head of Egypt's agency of Islamic jurisprudence, he gives his assurance to the West and to Egyptians, that the religious establishment of Egypt and he personally, is committed to tolerance and popular sovereignty that respects the rights of all citizens. He points to Egypt's tradition of a moderate and tolerant view of Islam. He says that Egypt threw out the heavy hand of authoritarian rule after many years and is not about to replace this with another type of authoritarian rule based on Islam. Islam's place in Egypt he argues, will be similiar to state churches in Denmark, and England, and similiar to Islam as the national religion in secular states like Tunisia and Jordan. The kind of Islam he sees for Egypt, in his words, is that of freedom and tolerance....

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Former Defense Secretary in the second term of the Obama administration, Chuck Hagel, says U.S. president Obama hurt his credibility when he failed to act on his own comments of a "red line" being crossed following the chemical attacks in Syria by the Assad government. Hagel was critical in an article in Foreign Policy magazine of the way the national security advisor, Susan E. Rice, ran discussions on foreign policy issues, with too many meetings and discussion followed up with deferring difficult decisions.

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Polls after prime minister Papademos assumed office show nearly three fourths of Greeks see his appointment as a "positive" step for Greece. The popularity of the Socialist party of Papandreou has suffered the most in public opinion. One poll shows only 11% of Greeks would vote for the Socialist party, compared to 21% for the New Democracy party. The New Democracy party has widened its lead over the Socialists.

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Giridharadas cites artists, students, television commentators, and others in Istanbul as he looks at the change in Turkey under prime minister Erdogan. There are he says two Turkeys one secular setup by Kemal Ataturk to modernize Turkey, and the other fostered by Erdogan that looks to its Muslim roots, and the two are simply drifting away from each other. There is too little conversation between the two. In the middle are Turks who see the change as a necessary adjustment to accept the country's roots in Anatolia and the surrounding countryside, and see it possible for Turks to be secular in their public lives and world outlook and preserve Muslim traditons in their private lives. Turkey's economy is also changing with increasing trade relations with other Middle East countries including Iran, Iraq and Egypt balancing its ties with the European Union countries.

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Turkey's transition to democracy and a growing emerging market. Turkey's example provides a pathway for modernization in Egypt.

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John Bolton looks at the continual dithering behaviour of the U.S. president in the Middle East- Iran, Libya, Syria, Iraq in sequence- and provides some insights into the president's behaviour. He says it comes from Obama's distrust of the U.S. role in the world as a positive factor, and a deterministic view of the "arc of history" bending towards outcomes he finds ideologically acceptable. This coincides with a different public perception of America's role in the world, not so much of mistrust and skepticism, as of indifference and focus back on domestic issues following the event of the first war in Iraq and of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The two are different in nature as the public including women may not share the ideological frame of mind of the president that the U.S. is not overall a serious positive factor in the world through the presidencies of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Ike, to Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton, from the Russo-Japanese war, through the First and Second World War, the Berlin Airlift and the Korean War, to the Balkan conflict. Bolton writes at a time when the two perceptions are about to diverge as the U.S. returns to its normal role of positive and constructive engagement with the world....

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How the efforts of former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, as head of the National Democratic Institute, and Senator John McCain, chairman of the International Republican Institute, to push for democratic processes in Egypt, failed to get the support of the Obama administration. Both wrote to Mr Mubarak in July 2010, asking that international monitors be allowed to observe the election in November 2010. The National Democratic Institute, is a US organization training Egyptians to be election monitors. After the renewal of martial law for another 2 years by Mubarak in May 2010, The Egypt Working Group, a bipartisan body of human rights activists, neoconservative policy makers and Mideast experts, was growing alarmed about the crackdown by Mubarak on anyone seeking transparency in the elections. It sent letters to Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in April and May 2010, saying the Mubarak move to rig the elections was dangerous as the young people in Egypt were increasingly agitated. The administration acted as if it was taken by surprise by the situation in Egypt, when respected leaders like Albright were cautioning the administration about the situation in Egypt from early 2010. Before and after the protests, the Obama administration was slow to support democratic processes in Egypt, and failed to take a clear consistent stand supporting the freedom of expression of the Egyptian people....