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The coronavirus is making implementation of the U.S. China trade deal less likely as Chinese imports from the U.S. decrease and China's exports continue to grow. China's exports to U.S. decreased by $60 billion but increased to other countries by $70 billion in 2019.

As a result the Trump administration is shifting its focus to another approach. The new multilateral approach is to combine the effort with allies Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and France. This would take the shape of a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to replace the old Obama period Trans Pacific Partnership which becomes defunct. The goal would be to build new supply chains with allies in Asia outside of China with the help of France and other countries that are wary of excessive dependence on China and have deep reservations of China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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The "floaters and anchors concept" for football of Coach Luis Enrique at Paris St Germain that makes rotating movements possible with centre backs playing up front and those playing forward pulling back. This fluidity makes this team one of the best in football. It now plays Bayern in the semifinals of Champions League 2026. Nuno Mendes is agood example of this rotation. BBC Sports explains with detailed pictures how this style of play is done by Luis Enrique.

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The number of countries visa free entry is the wrong way to give passport rankings as learning from other countries and cultures, learning about their scientific advances and manner of thinking is key to the huge changes that happened in Asia- in first Japan by 1900, South Korea and Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, by 1960's, China by 1990's and India by 2010- as the people of these countries interacted with Europe and the US. Interaction with Europe and the US is key for Asian nations.  This happened even earlier as Americans by 1880's interacted with Europe through ship voyages across the Atlantic in 7 days. This brought knowledge of scientific advances and ways of thinking from Europe to the US accelerating pace of industrialization in the agricultural economy in the US in the 19th century.  In 2025 the visa free access for US and EU to some of the advanced Asian nations, Japan and China is key to bringing back knowledge of scientific and other advances to the US and EU.  India and China should be compared. At Munich and other German EU airports China has the kind of visa free and fast track entry that does not exist either for the US or India. The writer experienced this on a recent visit in 2025 with a US passport denied entry to the fast track lane reserved for Chinese, Japanese, Korean and other travelers. India's bureaucracy, and US's lethargy, and the sheer lack of serious effort comparable to China and Japan in getting fast easy access to EU is to blame , particularly for the travelers who are most likely to gain from such interactions, the educated middle class and business people of India and the US. One could go so far as to say that one of the keys to China's advances is its ties to Germany and Hamburg and entry ports in Netherlands to the EU. EU is the source of technologies and of scientific knowledge freely available to China 1990-2025. For this to happen advanced logistics and ship- port building had to take place. India must do the same and much faster than anything that happened before 2025 at a pace as fast as China's if it is to reach it's potential in the world economy alongside the US and EU. ...

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In China since 1981 the poorest people making below $1.25 a day fell to 207 million in 2005 from 835 million in 1981. In India the number of people below $1.25 a day increased to 455 million in 2005 from 420 million people in 1981. The share of the people in poverty fell to 42 percent from 60 percent during the same period. Corresponding figures for East Asia including China show a drop from 80% of the people in poverty in 1981 dropping to 18% in 2005. The proportion of people living below the $1.25 a day poverty line worldwide fell over the nerarly 25 year period from 1981 to 2005 from 52% in 1981 to 26% in 2005. In subSaharan Africa, now the poorest region half or 50% of the people live under the poverty line of $1.25 a day in 2005 almost where it was in 1981. In absolute numbers the region had 380 million people living below the poverty line in 2005 compared to 200 million people in 1981. Note that the World Bank this year changed the poverty line from $1 to $1.25 a day, to make allowance for the inflation that is hitting the poorer countries. Is China a rich nation after the Olympics? Some parts of China, the coastal regions and the regions around big cities like Shanghai and Beijing are relatively affluent with pockets of poorer people but in the rest of the country there is poverty as defined perhaps in terms of deep poverty, poverty, poor middle class without health insurance or any kind of savings for emergencies. With 200 million people in 2005 below the poverty line a question could be asked how many people in China below say $2.00 a day which could be seen as being poor at a time when inflation in food and fuel costs has been significant in developing countries. If its somewhere in the range of 300 and 400 million people in China this explains why in relative terms China would identify with India and the rest of the developing countries and it also explains its stand in the WTO trade talks acting as a developing country protecting the rights of agriculture and farmers within China. And it also explains the reasons why China sees a long transition before it ceases to be a poor developing country and why there is real concern that these 300-400 million people as well as others adversely affected by the rapid industrialization and exercize of state authority, corruption and increasing gaps between rich and poor, adverse effects on environment, that these people adversely affected are listened to and accomodated in the interests of stable progress and fairness. Much of recent history has shown that countries open to foreign trade have done better given the right conditions and careful policy measures. China opened up around 1981, and India around 1991. Also progress and gains are more significant in infrastructure building and in poverty reduction in the latter phases of development as the synergies increase, capital pool increases, and the development accelerates, this shows why China's gains look significant compared to India's at this point in time. In ten years or fifteen years a better assessment could be made and then some points may favor China and some India, and the results will be a result of different history, experiences and problems faced and routes taken because of prior developments in each region and varying complexity. ...

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The president of the European Parliament and head of the socialist bloc in the parliament, Martin Schulz, is now headed for a comeback after losing the election to Merkel and the CDU. He will be the new Foreign Minister of Germany in a coalition agreement between the CDU of Merkel and the SPD party. After losing the election- even though polls showed him at 50% support in Feb. 2017- Schulz ruled out another coalition with Merkel's CDU which appeared to drain the SPD of energy and identity.  With the need to avoid fresh elections Schulz agreed to Merkel's overtures. He has a passion for football, and it played a part in his turning to alcoholism and missing out on graduating from high school. Yet he rebounded, running a bookstore with his sister- books were an elixir for Schulz- and becoming mayor of a small town Wurselen near Aachen in western Germany. His start in European politics came with a win for European parliament seat in 1994, rising to be president.   ...

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As part of the trade deal with the Trump administration China agreed to buy $54 billion of oil and liquified natural gas from the U.S. by the end of 2021. This is showing up in U.S. oil making up 7% of China's imports by mid September 2020 from 0.4% in January. By the endo of October forecasts show U.S. exporting 700,000 barrels a day to China. The U.S. is displacing Saudi and Middle East oil as Saudi exports now make up 15% of China's oil imports from 19%. This also shows that president Trump's trade deals are working to help balance trade with China and remove the disadvantageous position the U.S. was placed in by three previous administrations.

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Getting to bed early by 9-10 pm and getting 8-9 hours sleep is becoming a trend for young people and young professionals. This is an effort to live healthy lives by getting better sleep. It means most professionals skip late dinners, winding up outside activity by 7 pm.

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Admiral Mullen chairma joint cheifs confirms most of what the British Ambassador in Afghanistan s saying about deteriorating prospects in the country. He understands the heroin growing issue brought up by US counter narcotics experts in the NYT recently, by saying "we've got to impact pretty significantly, pretty fast on the poppy issue". He is aware that poppy growing is abundant in the south and in Helmand province pours upwards of $100 million to finance the Taliban. General McKiernan who heads NATO forces there says that NATO forces would be authorized to attack narcotics bosses, their soldiers and infrastructure, if they are linked to movement of weapons, improvised explosives or foreign fighters in Afghanistan. Which is possibly a waiting mode till more troops are sent to Afghanistan as policing this rugged mountanous country with tribal regions and loyalties complicated by the narcotics layer and widespread corruption in the Karzai government and its loss of popular support requires many more troops than are now in the country and a sustained campaign. So far the US and European forces possibly outnumbered have resisted alienating the poppy farmers in the south through land based eradication. But with more troops Mullen's new approach and Petraeus's has to shift to something like that, at the same time as they follow Petraeus's new counterinsurgency doctrine in display in Iraq to draw down the Taliban strength to its core supporters by winning other tribal factions with no hardcore loyalties over to the American side....

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China's rare offer for disarmament or first use restraint talks with the US as both sides increase their military nuclear missile arsenals in 2024 and increase military spending. How should the US respond?

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Yale Insights on AI capital allocation failures in 2025 and economic risks from the Yale School of Management, Yale University.

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Volodymyr Zelensky is given the Charlemagne Prize in Aachen, Germany. After World War II the border town of Aachen in Germany where the grave of Charlemagne is situated, decided to set up a prize for leaders who supported European unity. Charlemagne is the king from eighth century Europe who united France, Italy, Germany and Eastern Europe into a European state, and supported the Carolingian Renaissance and revival of Christianity. Winners of the prize include Monet, Schumann and Konrad Adenauer. Giving the prize to Zelensky and the people of Ukraine is a way to symbolically bring the people of Ukraine into the European community of nations and do this in a solemn commitment with an "obligation of the highest ethical value." Present at the ceremony were Chancellor Scholz, the city officials of Aachen, Ursula Leyen of the European Commission and the prime minister of Poland. Scholz committed Germany to supporting Ukraine as part of the European family in an historic setting that goes back over a thousand years. Mr. Zelensky spoke in Ukrainian and said this must be the first time Ukrainian was spoken inside these walls in Aachen. Dr. Kurt Pfeiffer, its founder in 1950, set the goal of the Charlemagne Prize award- "the prize reaches into the future and at the same time embodies an obligation- an obligation of the highest ethical value. It is directed at a voluntary union of the European people's without constraint, so that in their new found strength they may defend the highest earthly goods- freedom, humanity and peace- and safeguard the future of their children and their children's children." ...

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Lower gas prices lower inflation in the US to 2.4%. Unemployment with boost in healthcare sector and 130,000 jobs in January 2026 is at 4.3%.

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In a country with 70% inflation and debt of $83 billion, the NPP party leader Anura Dissanayake  who had only 3% of votes in the 2019 election wins by a landslide. Sri Lanka's economy is stabilizing with IMF assistance and negotiation, yet the economy has left the people in great difficulty to meet basic needs. Dissanayake led the JVP party in 1989-1997 period with considerable disturbances for which he has apologized. The Rajapaksa government also won with a landslide but failed during covid and the debt buildup crippled the economy and left the central bank without funds for essential imports. Ranil Wickremasinghe of a centre right party the UNP led a government after the economic collapse and negotiated a deal with the IMF, which included raising taxes to stabilize finances. Corruption and depletion of funds that are allocated for infrastructure and essential economic improvement, is a perennial problem in Sri Lanka since independence, making it impossible to build a modern economy from what the British left- rubber and tea plantations, an educated citizenry, good administration without the investment it deserved.  This problem also exists in India, Malaysia and many parts of Asia. The Modi government in Gujarat and the federal level was the first to break away from this by making every infrastructure dollar count and well spent with delivery in 3-4 years of highways, hospitals, airports, bridges, and logistics infrastructure for exports. ...

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As long as free and fair presidential elections do not happen migration from Venezuela will continue said this report from CSIS in 2023. a clear warning to the US, to Latin America and the world. This is relevant to the actions taken by the Republican party and by DJT to make the immigration an issue in 2024 elections and as shown alongside in the action by DJT to revoke the Chevron license because of Venezuela's failure to take in deportees quickly and the failure of the Maduro regime to allow free and fair elections to let Venezuelans decide their future.  Eight million Venezuelans have left the country because of mismanaging the economy, runaway inflation, repression, and failure to honor free and fair elections. Taking the 2015 population of 30 million this is about 25% of the population with millions fleeing to Colombia, Peru and the US. "If no indication of regime change seems in sight and the 2024 presidential elections are not free or fair, upticks in migration should be expected, as Venezuelans will continue to leave the country in search of better opportunities. Therefore, it is critical not to overlook this migrant crisis nor normalize it, as it is evidence of the persistence of the democratic and economic breakdown in this country, which continues to be a threat to the stability of the region and the world." (CSIS, Nov. 27, 2023) ...

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For decades Gulf Coast refineries efficiently process heavy crudes like Venezuelan oil or Canadian oil sands oil. US oil is a lighter crude. This is why the heavier crude from Venezuela can now be taken for processing to Gulf Coast refineries in the US. This should lower gas prices in the US further.

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The WSJ Editorial Board on the predawn vote on February 14th 2024 with a vote of 70-29 approving US aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. A lot of the investment is in the US in Patriot missiles built in Arizona and defense equipment in Alabama as the president pointed out in his message to House Republicans shown alongside saying history is watching. WSJ reminds readers that Arthur Vandenburg of Michigan helped president Harry Truman setup the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for the defense of Eastern Europe falling into Soviet hands- the danger seen in Greece and Turkey in the 1947 and the Berlin Blockade 1948-49. The Truman Doctrine was announced on March 12, 1947. People forget that Truman asked Congress for $400 million in military and economic aid to Greece and Turkey. With it Greece, the mother of western democracies was able to stave off defeats from Soviet supported forces by 1950.

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WSJ's Jon Emont shows how a combination of environmental activists, the fires in Indonesian rainforests in 2015- that at one point emitted as much carbon as the US hurting investment in Indonesia- and action taken by the Indonesian government to limit deforestation, have led to cleaning up supply of palm oil through deforestation. Maps show the deforestation that took place before 2015 and between 2015-2021, in Borneo and Sumatra, islands in the Indonesian chain. Opaque supplier connections to plantations all over the country made it difficult to trace the supply of oil from suppliers such as Wanda, KPN and others to Unilever for Dove soap, Mondelez for cookies, and other users of palm oil. It was the concerted and persistent effort of Greenpeace, the Indonesian government and of the companies that made it possible to clean up the supply chain. In 2018-2021 palm oil production increased by only 1%, compared to 22% for the period 2015-2018.

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The increased oil supply in the Middle East will come largely from Saudi Arabia and Iraq by 2015. By 2020 the increased oil supply from Iraq will surpass increased Saudi production, when compared with 2009, according to the International Energy Agency. Iraqi production is currrently 2.7 million barrels a day. This jumps significantly in coming years. JBC Energy expects Iraqi oil output to increase to about 8 million barrels a day by 2020. This is a result of modernization and participation of foreign oil companies in the Iraqi oil industry. Comparitively Libyan output shows only a small increase.

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US Defense Spending charts as percentage of GDP since 1929 startling fact seen in this chart of Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis- that in 2026 we are seeing 1929-1937 levels of military spending to GDP ratio of 2-3% just before it jumped to 45% in 1940 in World War II. It is a cautionary tale not to spend too little (2-4% is a danger point), as lack of military modernization means a lot more spending soon after, almost 10 times that- 10 times 4% or 40%. Message to the US is not what Starmer and company are saying in Europe- it is that don't invite the existential crisis of 1940 again for western (US, EU, Canada, UK) and eastern democracies (India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia) by ignoring costs of military modernization. And 2-4% of GDP for military spending is not going to do this.

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O'Malley, Sanders and Clinton agree that the media has spent much too much time on the Hillary Clinton email controversy. The first Democratic party debate also puts Sanders on the defensive on issues such as using force as commander in chief, gun control, and foreign policy including a no fly zone over Syria. Clinton defended her positions as consistent and having the same values throughout her political career, on the Patriot Act which she supported, and on other issues such as the Keystone pipeline, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership which she opposes because it does not do enough to protect U.S. jobs. Clinton emphasized her flexibility by saying that- "But like most human beings, including those of us who run for office, I do absorb new information. I do look at what's happening in the world." The debate was a win for Hillary Clinton because it helps to put the email controversy behind her, puts the focus back on her story and work as Senator and Secretary of State, and showed her ability to take on the many questions about her credibility....