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The Russian negotiator was in Washington DC for 3 days of talks suggesting the US Peace Plan of 28 Points has substantial Russian support. Will it overcome German EU and Ukraine objections?

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US naval blockade of Iran in Arabian Sea starts April 13 2026. US destroyed Iran's larger ships 158 of them, yet Iran also has a fleet of smaller attack boats which it plans to use in Hormuz. These are harder to detect and can be hidden in coves along the Iranian coast and used against ships. The US with its naval blockade is now prepared to do what it has done also in Venezuela, stop and interdict fast drug boats on the Venezuelan side in the Atlantic ocean. By blockading Venezuela in the ocean US is using its strengths, and stopping drug boats its ability to pinpoint traffic on the ocean. Similar capabilities are well suited to Arabian Sea and Red Sea on the open oceans and away from narrow Hormuz playing to US strengths and capabilities. Aircraft carriers and destroyers and the US Air Force is in a position to do what it does best control open seas like the British did in their heyday of the Royal Navy for most of 1750-1920. This avoids options of Hormuz itself with its narrow 15 mile gap of water between Oman and Iran too close to mountainous terrain on either side, and of the Kharg Island option which would require special forces to be backed up with more ground forces. This is the most viable option and the interlude of couple of weeks has given the president an opportunity to make a better choice for positioning the US forces where the US has its strongest points. What is lacking is the individual powers of Britain and France whose leaders Starmer and Macron have popularity below 20%. Yet the US is better off making good choices and not having these nations alongside. The posturing by European nations is limited to France and UK, as Germany and Italy are in sync with the US position. Much of the media operates as if the goal of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to the Middle East is not important for long term peace for nations such as China and India with about 3 billion people and the billions of people of Asia, Latin America and Africa. For the first time in 400 years since 1600 as Asian civilizations began a long decline China and India have emerged in 2000-2030 into the kind of modern economies and societies that exist in Europe and the US. The last thing they need is the risk of destroying the Modern World with nuclear proliferation when it took centuries to get to the right opportunity after 1950 to modernize China and India. Xi's and Modi's generation are the first to experience modernization in Asia after Japan's experience. ...

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Douthat offers insights into U.S. president Obama's thinking when he said at a National Prayer Breakfast, that Christians also had committed bad acts in the name of religion and reminded listener of the Jim Crow days when blacks were oppressed by church going Christians. The Crusades were a long battle against an advancing Islam over several centuries and many regions, says Douthat, and do not quite compare with the actions committed by an individual organization such as Islamic State in 2014-2015. The Jim Crow reference comes from personal experience during the fading days of racial discrimination. Yet says Douthat this reference to Christian culpability does little to bring the criticism back to self that the writer Niebuhr, Obama's role model, suggests, because it does not take the criticism back to self or political party to serve as useful introspection. It is almost like saying Christians are just as bad,(so why act?) without distinguishing from Christians and Muslims who respect tolerance and peaceful coexistence from those who do not. It also encourages one to remain a bystander in foreign and defense policy, leaving a younger generation with any future consequences. Ike does better by bringing self-criticism home to his own party and ideological wing by talking about the military-industrial complex and the problems it will create....

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Auto parts makers employ 600,000 workers concentrated in 7 states and also supply foreign carmakers in the USA. They are asking for access to TARP or other government money as they are feeling the effects of this downturn. Carmakers are using the stuy by the Center for Automotive Research that says 3 million jobs will be affected. However bankruptcy law allows the carmakers to continue to operate, and gives the automakers an opportunity to renegotiate all labor contracts on the basis of the new realities in the American economy, as demand collapses and credit is tight and companies need rescue money from the government. Douglas Baird, a Professor at the University of Chicago Law School who specializes in bankruptcy law says that this 3 million figure is laughable as modern bankruptcy law is designed to protect against that, in effect suggesting that companies like the airlines that are operating in bankruptcy can continue to operate as before but do so with serious restructuring.

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Mistakes to avoid in retirement, says Statman, are that after a lifetime of frugal habits to save for retirement, when one gets there he or she will spend so much less that they cannot enjoy life fully. He suggests taking a payout of 3%-4% from retirement accounts and dividends combined. Another mistake is to think one has more time to manage retirement accounts, and he warns that this is a bad idea as one cannot beat the market, and it is important not to take risks in retirement. Other mistakes are to ignore how important healthy living is at this point.

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The view of economists who point to anegative feedback loop, a vicious cycle where tight credit conditions weaken the economy which furter deteriorate the condition of financial markets and banks resulting in even more depressed economic activity. The collapse in consumer lending in October for instance leading to a collapse in the automobile markets resulting in more layoffs and plant closures which in turn exacerbate the economic condition and reduce consumer spending even more. The housing market is a key to all this as the root of the credit market problems of banks have to do with mortgage securities that have soured as house prices went down and foreclosures losses rose. With a drop in consumer spending and increase in umemployment as a result of the tight or nonexistent credit the housing prices are further depressed, resulting in a virtual collapse in credit, as happened in October with issuance of securities backed by consumer debt drying up for lack of buyers. The government steps in to unclog credit markets but housing price decline is still underway as these measures like the Fed's decision to buy $600 billion in Fannie and Freddie securities do not change the fundamental mechanism of dropping prices, as homeowners under water or potential buyers facing layoffs or no access to mortgage credit shy away from the market. ...

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US president Biden's $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan is being compared to the New Deal infrastructure plans of Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930's. FDR was preceded by Republican administrations under Hoover and other presidents who followed policies that can be compared to the Reagan administration policies when public sector spending was not seen to be as efficient as private sector spending. By the time of the economic collapse in the 1930's it had become clear that only the federal government could save the country in the depression. During the pandemic and collapse of the health systems it was clear that only the federal government could save the country. It is now also evident that infrastructure building led by the government can rebuild America. In the 1930's and during other periods in American history such as the building of the Erie Canal and other public sector infrastructure projects in the 19th century it was the federal government that led the way to building America. ...

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A look at countries in Europe shows different strategies for tackling coronavirus Delta variant as schools reopen in September 2021. Italy requires all teachers to carry a covid digital certificate that shows vaccination or PCR test results. France, Germany and Spain do not require vaccination for teachers to go to schools, and rely mostly on social distancing and mask requirements in schools. Britain not only does not require vaccination digital certificate, but also has not made masks and social distancing mandatory. Health experts say there are serious risks in this approach with mass return to schools and offices after August 2021, and the fall weather with more time indoors. This could lead to a surge in coronavirus as in the US where the reopening of schools and Delta variant has led to surge particularly in states such as Texas, Florida, California. In UK 65% of total population is now fully vaccinated, in Italy 62%. Teachers in Italy fully support the new rules. In Lombardy region with Milan as the capital, only 300 out of 300,000 workers returned to schools without the green pass, according to regional officials. Britain remains an outlier says this report in the WSJ, taking more risks than is proper at this time, and simply hoping for the best. Not the best strategy in this situation.   ...

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Oxford University Wellbeing Research Center has developed Happiness score using Gallup surveys. US score No.10 ranking among 143 countries for older adults over 60 years. Yet it drops off steeply for young people to 62nd of 143 countries. The situation is the same in Canada and to a lesser extent in the European Union. Overall the US dropped out of the top 20 countries  falling from 15th to 23rd. The report is based on Gallup World poll surveys from 2021 to 2023. Young females recording even lower. Normally it starts with youth doing better and higher then in a U curve dropping all the way down during a midlife crisis in 30's and 40's age before rising again for older adults wi have experienced the vicissitudes of life. The US data contradicts this. Why? Jan De Neve of Oxford Wellbeing Center says it could be from social media use and growing health and income disparities. The pandemic also played a role- beginning college or a career in a pandemic was just not the way to start. Housing prices, cost of living, loneliness epidemic, misinformation and social media negative effects add to this. At the same time there is an increase in benevolence among younger people aware of the situation they face and looking for ways to mitigate this. ...

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Total sales of Truth Social are $5 million over 3 years, it cost $40 million raised through convertible notes to finance losses, says this WSJ report. By using financial dealmaking methods this could create $300 million for Truth Social and $6 billion for Trump Media, says WSJ in the report. DWAC shares were set at $10 and are now at $144 with its connections to Trump Media & Technology Group, going up 150% in the last year. Digital World Acquisition is a SPAC meaning that it is a shell company- or special purpose acquisition company in financial jargon- that lists shares on an exchange with the sole purpose of buying a private company and taking it public. Investors buy and shell shares on the expectation of which company it buys and how that company will perform. Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent of Mr. Trump's Truth Social social media company will merge with Digital World Acquisition SPAC and the new company will replace the old with the sticker changing DWAC to DJT. This could happen next week if the majority of DWAC shareholders approve it. This could get Truth Social $300 million says WSJ and Trump Media main shareholder with 60% holding about $3.5 billion in this deal making, says WSJ. ...

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Japan is meeting a shortage of workers by bringing in workers from other countries including China. In jobs ranging from apple picking to airport baggage handling Japan is getting foreign workers, and making changes in its immigration laws. Prime minister Abe is pushing for these changes to increase growth of the Japanese economy. In the past 4 years the number of foreign workers has nearly doubled to 1.46 million and a new visa system will accelerate the process to bring in more workers. Out of 27 countries in a Pew Survey Japan is the only country where more people favor immigration to rise than those who think it should decline. The Chief Cabinet Secretary Mr. Suga says- " In my view that shows how real the labor shortage problem is." Immigration authorities say they gave visas to only 82 refugees in 2018, less than 1% of those applying, so that there is not a sense of recasting Japan as a nation of immigrants or fulfilling any obligation to accept people from war torn nations. The problem Japan is facing is that 3 in 10 people are over 65 years old. In 2018 the population declined by 430,000, causing a need for job applicants. In fact cities and towns are looking for new ways to hire older workers who retired by offering flexible hours. ...

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Holding tension in any position that does not have dynamic movement is isometric exercise. The British Journal of Sports Medicine has a study with research that shows this isometric exercise done with squatting on the wall (or with a ball against the wall) for support for 2 minutes repeated 4 times with rest periods of two minutes each time for total 4 wall sits, taking 14 minutes, can reduce systolic blood pressure top number by 10 mmHg and diastolic pressure by 5 mmHg. Jamie O'Driscoll the lead author of the study says this is useful for people doing aerobic exercise, and yet could benefit from the use of isometric wall squats. A clinical exercise physiologist at University of Michigan says isometric exercise works because contracting a muscle and holding that position reduces blood flow to that muscle, when you release blood flow increases to muscle tissue. It creates signals that tell blood vessels to relax more and create less resistance to blood flow. To do this wall sit find a wall to lean against and take a couple of steps forward, feet hip width apart and slide your back down the wall and your knees getting to a 90 degree angle gradually. This uses quadriceps, glutes, calves, all leg muscles and abdominal muscles. ...

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China is moving closer to the day when its population shrinks. This would be a sign of a seriously aging population with fewer young people as workers to support the older people and retired workers. The number of births fell for a fifth year in a row. In 2021 births were at 10.6 million dropping from 12 million in 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.  The year 1961 the last year of the Great Leap Forward under Mao was the first time in its recent history that China actually had population decline with famine and other problems. This situation of population decline is fast approaching or already happened. In 2021 there were 10.1 million deaths. Women in China are not interested in having children. Typical is this woman in Beijing quoted in this WSJ report- she is 28 and teaches Korean language. She says she doesn't want to spend her savings on kids.  In China education is the pathway to a better life and income. And it is not cheap. Most of the savings of mothers will go into educating their children. Tutoring costs had become so high and the competition so intense that the government to tackle this problem announced that this will from now on be a non profit industry. ...

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California has gone to put residential solar panels big time. Consider 47 gigawatts of production of solar energy installed , can supply 13.9 million homes and cover 25% of California's energy use. From desert landscapes in the Central Valley to rooftops in southern California it has spread so fast that the power grid does not know what to do with it during the day when demand is not high and supply is plentiful, a duck curve. About 5% of it goes to waste unused, and solar energy during the midday period is now not worth much to the grid. Officials want to switch from the 0.20 or 0.40 cents incentive per kilowatt hour  California pays for solar supplies to net metering that means pay only what is of value to the grid. In the Spring months this can be a net zero value to the grid and zero payments. In summer demand picks up because of air conditioning use middday. This has raised alarm that it will lead to a 40% drop in solar installations in the next year. It shows the challenges that more states will face. Nevada with 23% solar energy power is facing this situation. So is Hawaii. The Biden administration has $7 billion in grants to support rooftop solar in other states, to power 900,000 low income households. ...

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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The BBC Fact check for crime, cost of living, immigration, world affairs is shown next to this transcript of the former president's speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, July 2024. The biggest issue is cost of living, for housing, food and groceries, gas and automobiles new and repairs. "I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill. Prices will start to come down." Fact: Gas prices may come down a bit, but it will do little or nothing for the other major components of cost of living - for housing and mortgage rates of 6-7%, for automobile prices and auto repairs, for food and groceries.The problem of job creation will come to the fore because of an inherent contradiction of trying to commit to Republican old platform of tax cuts for the wealthy and efforts to take cost of living action for the now larger lower and middle classes. Without this money that goes to tax cuts for wealthy there is not much to invest in Make at Home, in manufacturing in US the way Biden is doing and plans for next 4 years creating hundreds of thousands of jobs every month and still keeping inflation low at 3% through an investment driven economy. ...

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Retired General Keith Kellogg was in National Security roles in the DJT first term. He is the new DJT envoy to Ukraine and Russia with the goal of negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. He was chief of staff of the National Security Council in DJT's first term. And also the National Security Advser to vice President Mike Pence. The 80 year old veteran co-authored a paper for America First think tank which says- "The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement."  "Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia."  This comes as Zelensky's popularity in Ukraine has dipped to 16% and Ukraine's people do not want him to run again for president. This is intended to draw Ukraine into peace talks as prolonging the war would lead to enormous losses for Ukraine's cities and the people of Ukraine, Kellogg told the Voice of America at the Republican Convention in 2024, and peace talks would end the war with Russia. ...

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Harris was on the Oprah Winfrey Show yesterday where she reminded television viewers about the values America needs going forward, values that stretch back to the days of previous leaders FDR, TR and Lincoln, Washington and Jefferson who penned the words in the Declaration of Independence. "I think a lot boils down to values. I just read values on the line here. It does. I mean, think about it, Oprah. The idea that some would suggest and that my opponent suggests, which is that the measure of the strength of a leader based on who you beat down. Come on. The real measure of the strength of a leader. You don’t know who you lift up." Harris and members of the audience were visibly shaken as they heard the story of a girl Amber Thurman  who died in Georgia after seeking help following an abortion ban in Georgia. Harris said- "Amber’s story highlights the fact that, among everything that is wrong with these bans and what has happened in terms of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, it’s a health-care crisis. It’s a health-care crisis that affects the patient and the profession.” ...

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It may come as a surprise that changing retirement age in France faced huge opposition yet was enacted into law for moving it from 62 years to 64  years in 2023,  but was never acted upon in China where it is 60 years. China raises its retirement age for men to 63 years from 60, to be done incrementally a few months at a time till 2040. For women it goes from 50 to 58 years, 55 years for blue collar workers. Why the hesitation. It appears that there is much age related discrimination in China so that many workers feared they would be laid off in their fifties and not get pensions till 60-64 years. This could have created much unrest as it did even in France where there is more discrimination for age than other parts of the EU.  When countries have aging populations do they have an alternative? How could they support pensions at 60 or 62 years as in France and in China? In China the social safety net is weak which leads to more resistance and caution by the government fearing unrest. Yet it is not the best time to tackle this problem as the economy slows, resources are constrained, and there is higher unemployment. ...

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The difficulties of unwinding war stimulus that has increased jobs and wages in poorer regions of Russia, and the problems with unwinding a war economy, are discussed here by experts from Russia, the US and Germany. Other aspects include what to do with hundreds of thousands of new recruited soldiers who would be unemployed during a period when the economy's growth has slowed and wage growth is slowing. In 2024 new recruits were given 1 years bonus and were being attracted in large numbers. JD Vance mentioned this to the new Pope in discussions, and this report says even Putin does not know how best to unwind this war economy. Vance told Pope Leo XIV -“I’m not sure that Vladimir Putin himself has a strategy for how to unwind the war.” This is the view also from an expert at the Free University of Berlin, as rapidly demobilizing a large army poses its own problems. Russia could export the arms from new arms factories and keep people employed. This option is difficult as many African countries buy on credit and Asian other buyers may seek the latest technologies, others face financial difficulties or like India are diversifying and shifting to local manufacturing. ...

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Key Indian projects in Sri Lanka or Ceylon are the Kankesanthurai harbor in northern Sri Lanka and the Ind0-Japanses East Container Terminal at Colombo port. In Maldives it is the Greater Male Connectivity Port.With its expertise and leadership in solar energy India is also launching solar initiatives in Sri Lanka. India has focused efforts on developing human capital and employment intensive sectors. This contrasts with the non concessional loans that finance infrastructure projects often with Chinese labor that do not generate the jobs Sri Lanka or Ceylon so desperately needs. Earlier period of Chinese infrastructure projects led to the debt trap with building of Hambantota port and facilities which Sri Lanka could not effectively utilize, and led to buildup of interest on loans. Sri Lanka now has the opportunity to make a new beginning as part of the SAGAR (Security and Economic Cooperation for All). The whole range of intitiatives in many areas show India's long experience in working with Sri Lanka since 1900 when early development projects were initiated. India has a long list of projects to help Sri Lanka keep up with India in its development- two education tourism projects, ITEC Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation, and Technology Adoption Project. This opens a new path for Sri Lanka to make steady progress on a wide range of projects for the next 10 years for sustainable development. As India grows this will expand the range of possibilities for Sri Lanka that it could never achieve on its own. Many new projects can also be done with the economic cooperation and assistance of UK, U.S. Japan and India to broaden the range of possibilities and financing. ...

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This opinion by Mr. Swain, editorial page writer at the Wall Street Journal says it is regrettable that the expert class in America has failed to acknowledge its errors or conduct self-criticism. A new generation of journalists, think tank authors, and experts, will soon replace the old. They, he says, will make a fair assessment of the Trump years and look at their forerunners as acting in crucial moments, as idiots. He offers an alternative view of lockdowns as hurting the economy and causing a sharp recession in which people had to go without income, and some even hungry. To support this he says many parts of the country did not lock down and managed to keep hospitals running fine. California and New York with Democratic governors and large numbers of Democratic voters have borne the brunt of the pandemic in America. He points out the changes in the Middle East with policy that has brought Israel and the Arab world closer. The wars in foreign lands that are no longer being fought wasting precious resources. Democrats and the news media acted to consider Mr. Trump's election as illegitimate and the result of collusion with a Russian president, says Swain, till the Mueller investigation proved this to be not true. The real reason for Trump's election being that the Clinton-Obama Democrats had neglected working class interests and sent jobs overseas, and the Democratic party had shifted far from its working class base. That there is much for reflection in both political parties is stated in this view as the Democrats rush to a second impeachment Feb. 9, after president Biden has setup his new administration, and in the middle of a national emergency pandemic.   ...

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The Irish prime minister Varadkar says it is time to move on. When he assumed office he was the first from an ethnic minority background to lead Ireland, the son of an Irish mother and an Indian immigrant father. He took Ireland through the crises of coronavirus pandemic, Brexit, and improved unemployment and budget shortfalls. Recently he accepted defeat on a referendum intended to remove language in the Irish Constitution on a clause about "a woman's life within the home." Disagreements over the language of the referendum led to its not getting approved on International Women's Day by about 70% of the vote with 44% of people voting. It suggest there was no enthusiasm and its relevance at this time was not understood. It is not clear why there was a need for this referendum in the first place to remove one text of the constitution that respects the role of family and mother's contributions in the home. During the pandemic for instance women played a major role, and sometimes took on a greater share of the burden. Efforts to have women's participation as shown in Japan and India does not require constitutional wording to be changed. Japan has done remarkably well and India is about to do this. And removing the wording about women's role at home, instead of encouraging or adding wording about women actively participating in the workforce and actions to make that possible, accomplishes little. Coupling this with a wording that includes gay families in the definition of family while removing the role of women in the family language seemed to be making changes that had little to do with each other. ...

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This opinion piece in De Zeit says there are different ways to look at Chancellor Merkel's refugee policy, as a failure, as an act of compassion, influenced by her experience in East Germany, her Christian upbringing as a daughter of a pastor, or Germany playing a role in Europe after Barrack Obama failed to provide American leadership in the refugee crisis. It says some of this commentary in the media ignores the fact that it was always the intention to accept a large number of migrants as part of a policy of European humanism in the face of misery of refugees, but to carefully manage this influx, to reduce the flow of refugees, and wind down the flow by vigorously addressing the causes. From this point of view the commentary about Merkel's failure is overdone. It is interesting that some of the weirder descriptions describe Germans conscious of the history as being outpatients in a American clinic closed down by president Obama. In any case American presidents have overreached, consider Reagan and Bush with German's strong or cautious reaction, and underreached with Obama providing cause for concern and efforts to fill in for a missing American role, with both roles difficult to fill for Germany by itself. America is not defined by its presidents and its politics alone, but by its own history, which has reflected the same values since the founding fathers Jefferson and Washington. Germany's policy has merely reflected these same values, at a time when the U.S. was simply taking a pause from its foreign involvements in regions fragmented by tribal, religious and other divisions. In doing so being the true partner it was its intention to be. ...

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The Economist looks at the summary of the Mueller Report. The special counsel did not find that the Trump campaign was in collusion with the Russian government in its interference in the 2016 election. 

The Economist points out that Mr. Mueller accomplished the task of cleaning political campaigns of corruption and other questionable behaviour. In the case of Mr. Manafort campaign manager, and Roger Stone, the president's lawyer, Mr. Mueller's investigation set the precedent of how such investigations would take place in the future.  The investigation also looked into candidates business interests, including building a skyscraper in Moscow. This editorial says Mr. Mueller's conduct was exemplary.