LyrArc Article Gist
A call to U.S. and European leaders to uphold civilized values after the repeated use of chemical weapons and poison gases in Syria by Bashir Assad. Roberts quotes the poet Wilfrid Owen who fought on the Western Front in World War I and witnessed the horror of gas attacks at the time. The poem is "Dulce et Decorum Est." It describes a chlorine gas attack at that time. The Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Aphyxiating, Poisonous and other Gases, banned their use in 1925. The hesitant response of president Obama to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by Assad compares very unfavorably with the Sarkozy-Cameron action in Libya and president Clinton's response in Kosovo after attacks on civilian populations. It also fails to uphold civilization values. This is true also of the government of Hollande in France, Merkel in Germany, which have failed to respond. The focus on domestic issues and the eurozone crisis does not make any less the responsibility of western leaders on this issue. Russia under Putin and China under Jinping have not grasped the importance of standing up for civilization and values to be credible in world affairs....

LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT report that provides details on what Iran agreed to in the deal reached in Geneva on November 23, 2013 with western nations and the P5+1 that includes Russia and China. It provides a 6 month period in which additional steps to secure that Iran's program is limited to peaceful uses can be achieved. It also slows the Iranian nuclear weapons program by about one month according to this report, and gives additional warning if Iran moves in that direction. Not enough to dismantle Iran's nuclear enrichment program which is what Israel, Saudi Arabia want to see. France has called for tougher steps to limit the nuclear program in prior negotiating sessions. U.S. president Obama has looked for a compromise which would provide the opportunity to do this at a later stage, possibly through a series of smaller agreements. The sticking point is Iran's insistence that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes like other signatories to the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. This may be the only agreement that could be reached at this time, leaving tougher negotiations for a later stage when more trust and credibility is achieved, without the risk of jeopardizing a future agreement that goes further and seriously tackles the problem....

LyrArc Article Gist
The GM management does not get it , the GM spokesman does not get it, the workers don't get it, says Andrew Sorkin from what he hears them say. GM faces many problems, too many dealerships, too many models and brands, and union benefits and retiree benefits from another world of post 50's economic expansion, that can only be solved by a government sponsored bankruptcy or GSB. GSB is a necessary part of the solution as chapter 11 makes solutions possible without dealerships suing as state laws protect dealerships, unions striking and management insisting on the status quo. In all he sees the 35 plants of GM and Chrysler cut in half, only the Chevrolet , Cadillac and Buick and Jeep brands retained and Dodge Ram pickups merged with Chevrolet, in a GM-Chrysler merger. He cites Deutsche Bank's estimates that reducing the brands to the 3 mentioned for GM would reduce costs by $5 billion annually and reducing the dealerships by another $4 billion. Buick would be retained because its a huge seller in China. The government would setup a warranty insurance fund to insure the warranties of all GM and Chrysler vehicles bought while they are in Chapter 11. And some of the rescue money would go into retraining and helping promote new industry....

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, in an intervew with magazine Der Spiegel, says the US Fed's action to purchase $800 billion of Treasury securities shows that US policymakers are at a loss about what to do. It doesn't add up, says Schauble, that the US with the help of the central bank's printing presses is artificially lowering the vale of the dollar, while at the same time accusing China of currency manipulation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Changing policy in China as more low cost manufacturing goes out of business amid a range of changing business factors and moving to more sophisticated manufacturing takes place.

LyrArc Article Gist
Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

LyrArc Article Gist
The annual report on China by the IMF points to a diminishing margin of safety and higher risks for delays in needed economic changes from earlier infrastructure and construction focussed policies which neglected Chinese consumers and savers. The IMF pointed to risks from the shadow banking system and the real estate bubble that need to be addressed.

LyrArc Article Gist
Rick Rieder of Black Rock and David Kelly of  JP Morgan Chase and others sense that the US is entering a phase they call "the satellite economic phase in which there are no crash landings and takeoffs but steady orbiting in space. Less boom and bust and more steady growth for years is the new economy Biden is creating with huge investments in infrastructure and manufacturing and worker skills training that upgrade the workforce. Investments in health and education are part of this. This makes the US economy more resilient with government working both as a partner and agencies of the government that regulate and provide the rules for fairness and level playing field acting to prevent the booms and busts of the past such as the 2009 financial crisis and other crises. With China, EU, India, Japan+South Korea and the US, all 5 of the largest economies aligned to maintain steady growth for their people the prospect of war acting to reduce growth potential will also be managed in a setting that is needed following the pandemic. This will make both the Middle East and the Eastern European recurring crises to be toned down and a shift made to growth in these regions from the war ravaged periods of reckless behaviour of nation actors. This is a view now emerging among key people in the US economy such as Rieder Black Rock and Kelly JP Morgan. Both says the ways of understanding this and the terminology "soft landing" or "cylical, midcycle" are now outdated and no longer apply. Says Reider-“But one point to keep in mind is that satellites don’t land and maybe that is a better analogy for a modern advanced economy” like the United States.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
America has its own conversation points. Ischinger says we would love to vote in the US election as it affects us greatly. Americans would love to vote in the German and French elections as it affects us. As America fights to give workers and families their rights and invests trillions of dollars in infrastructure when will Germany and France do this? When will Germany and France fight to give all workers and families opportunity to get ahead and make a decent living? Are Germany and France aware that the Biden-Harris, Biden-Walz fight is for domestic policy to determine foreign policy and this is the domestic policy of America. Wolfgang Ischinger ,who heads the Munich Security Conference Foundation, writes in NYT about the importance of keeping the conversation with European allies going. He says US and European Union do not have a common policy towards China and this needs to be discussed and clarified. US and EU need to come closer for NATO to carry out it's mission now that the EU countries are shouldering a fair share of the defense burden in percentage of GDP devoted to defense. Ischinger says the Europeans are not investing defense dollars efficiently and developing European arms suppliers. His third point is that there should be consistent application of rule of law, democracy and western values in policy to build the alliance. He remains blissfully unaware that the same divisions that are fostered in America exist in Europe and some of them started in Europe- for Europe to be strong it must invest in its People, in workers and families and in infrastructure, domestic policy will become foreign policy.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This article clearly shows that Russia is turning the corner for full scale use of western technology to tap oil and gas fields in the North. Note the efforts to bring in western expertise include- 1. Efforts to hire Donald Evans, former U.S. Commerce Secretary, to be Chairman of Rosneft. Evans turned down the offer. The hiring of Peter O'Brien a former Morgan Stanley investment banker as chief financial advser.2. With China National Petroleum as a strategic partner. 2. The financial backing and expertise of state run oil companies around the world now give them the ability to contract directly with Schlumberger or Baker Hughes or other oil field technology suppliers. This changes the whole playing field with less need to negotiate with the major oil companies and the ability to do it themselves at their own pace and strategic advantage and execute their own oil policy. Previously negotiating with the oil companies meant giving up some of the ownership of the oil fields to the oil companies in return for the technology. The oil services companies sell the technologies on a fee basis. 3. The pressure to move ahead aggressively with new technology. Estimates from IEA in Paris by Chief Economist Fatih Birol, show that increasing oil production by one and half million barrels a day to level of ten and half million barrels a a day requires Russia to invest $900 billion dollars by 2030 or about 40 billion a year. The only way to generate this kind of investment is to grow its oil development capabilities, keep prices high but stable, invest in the latest technology and bring some of it inhouse....

LyrArc Article Gist
An agreement for a aircraft purchase order of 300 jets is signed during Chinese president Xi Jinping's visit to Paris. China Aviation Supplies Holding Company and Airbus sign an agreement for purchase of 290 A320 planes and 10 A350 XWB jets. The deal is worth $30 billion. President Jinping also visited Italy where Italy signed on to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.

LyrArc Article Gist
WTO Trade talks and the negotiations between EU, US, Brazil, India, China, Japan, and Canada continue with difficulties in getting India's agreement. Mr Nath of India has come to speak for all the world's poorest countries in Africa and Asia and also the growing emerging economies like S. Korea and India. THe EU and the USA are keen on access to India's growing market. And India and Brazil want to see concessions from the EU and the USA that will help the poorer countries especially promises made at the Doha round that were to ease global poverty that have not been fulfilled. With the difficult economic situation in the EU and the USA there is less give on their side and the Indians and the Brazilians are insistent.