LyrArc Article Gist
BP's global oil outlook 2013-2030 shows demand from China is still a big part of the story two decades from now. Factor in demand from Russia, the Middle East and India, yet China still dominates the picture for growth in demand. For 2000-2011 China's share of global demand growth for energy was 55%, under BP's outlook China's share for 2011-2030 drops to 43%. Fossil fuels still dominate. The continuing dependence on fossil fuels is also the perspective of Shell CEO Voser in an interview with the WSJ in Jan 2013, who also sees strong growth in shale gas supplies from China. Coal will account for 61% of global demand growth to 2030, oil 43%, gas 25%, in BP's outlook. If Voser is right and with the need for cleaner burning natural gas gas considering high air pollution in Chinese cities, gas may take a bigger share than 25%. Shell CEO Voser looks out 4 decades from now and sees one third of global demand coming from renewable energy, 10% from nuclear, and the rest from fossil fuels.

LyrArc Article Gist
Inida' slowdown from 9% to 6.7% growth rate is mainly the result of lower private consumption says the Economis, as the contribution to growth of private consumption dropped by half in 2008. Which is why it sees the handouts to consumers through tax cuts and welfare spending making sense in the short run, even as India's finances are stretched. After a 36% increase in government spending in this budget, the fiscal deficit is estimated to be 12% in 2009, including "off-budget" items. Increasing the efficiency of the fertilizer subsiies by putting it directly in farmer's hands instead of fertilizer makers is a priority, as this takes up 1.5% of GDP.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Agriculture Department lowered its forecast of corn yield per acre from 166 busherls per acre to 123.4 after a severe drought in the U.S. The projected corn harvest is expected to come in at 10.8 billion bushels, 13% smaller than the 12.4 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA forecast for corn price in August 2012 was raised at the upper end to $8.90 per bushel, up 39% from a month ago.

LyrArc Article Gist
Daimler expects strong truck sales, after the launch of its new Actros model truck. It expects truck sales to increase 14% a year on average from 2010 to 2013. Truck sales are estimated at 500,000 in 2013, with sales rising to 700,000 by 2020.

LyrArc Article Gist
The head of the World trade Organization Okonjo-Iweala and the prime minister of Bahamas Mia Mottley say that overconcentration of manufacturing in China creates fewer opportunities for growth for poor countries. The supply chain needs to be redesigned after the pandemic not just because it creates a more dependable supply chain for the US and the European Union. It also  needs to be resdesigned to increase manufacturing in countries such as India and Mexico because this will create more opportunities for growth in other countries. For this to happen the infrastructure has to be made similar to that in China. This program of rapidly building the latest infrastructure and logistics with next generation technologies is underway in India with the Modi administration building new pools of capital, skilled labor, land and logistical infrastructure for the purpose of  rapid export led growth. A target of 2 trillion dollars in exports by 2030 has been set by India. This will affect a broad region from Indonesia to Vietnam in Asia and Mexico, Brazil in Latin America, bringing the benefits of trade to a wider region for the first time and making allies of the US and the European Union true partners in trade and manufacturing for the supply chain. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT's Kristof gives this exceptional report on the use of cancer causing chemicals all around us in many consumer products. With the increased use of chemicals has come the tripling of asthma rates in the last 25 years, leukemia up by 1% a year, increasing obesity, and breast cancer rates increasing from 1% in 1975 to 12% today with only some of it from better detection. Doctors at the Mt. Sinai School of Medicine in New York, say American girls who had puberty at the age of 17 in 1800, now have puberty at the age of 14, even 12. Earlier menstrual cycles increase the risk of breast cancer because of increased exposure to estrogen. Studies show exposure to pesticides, PCB's and other cancer causing chemicals increase the risk of cancer, and a link to early puberty. Asian women moving to the U.S. are also experiencing higher rates of breast cancer as they move to societies with higher use of chemicals in daily life, say experts at Mt. Sinai. Poor eating habits and lifestyles with less exercize are also to blame, but chemicals also play a role. Americans are moving towards shunning packaged processed foods for fresh food in their diet, and more are learning the benefits of regular exercize, but the same degree of public awareness is lacking for the extensive use of chemicals in our consumer society. In other societies around the world that are copying us such as in China, India and Brazil, the situation is even worse, with the spread of a reckless idea that modernization requires jettisoning health safety concerns. Even a simple pizza box has PFAC's chemicals made to make the box resistant to grease. In 2015 where products are labeled environmentally friendly by large companies to attract buyers and build the right image in the minds of consumers, consumers asking questions and making better choices make a difference by offering a seal of approval. Carpets have chemicals, and most disposable plastic containers contain chemicals that could seep into the food if heated. The use of plastic containers and microwaves is common practice in todays society, where less cooking is done on the stove than in the period before 1960. The sheer size of the chemicals developed since 1950 is staggering- more than 80,000 chemicals according to the Children's Environmental Health Center at Mt. Sinai. And this Center says less than 20% have been tested for toxicity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Toyota's changes in its global architecture in 2011-2013. Reorganization to build amore tight knit management structure for better responsiveness and decisionmaking. The focus is on getting rid of bureaucracy after years of growth that led to excessive and sometimes indirect reporting layers. For instance, chief engineers now report directly to top product planning executives to speed decisionmaking and make new product introductions faster. Regional managers are now shrunk to three groups: North America and China; Japan and Europe; Australia, Russia and emerging markets. It is interesting to note that China and the U.S. are put together- the logic is based on the idea that the buyers in each group tend to have similiar buyer behaviour for vehicles, say Toyota managers. Another significant effort focusses on increasing the use of standardized parts to 50% for vehicles that are of similiar size. The Prius C, the redesigned Camry and the Etios subcompact in India, were cited recently by CEO Akio Toyoda as examples of products that have utilized these changes in methods and approach....

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Fed FOMC's decision to continue tapering monthly bond purchases by $10 billion in Jan 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
Actually some of this is a healthy development as more nations and people have a stake in the world economy. Take the Brazil situation for example . Clearly the Brazilian people are more favorable to globalization and its benefits than they were a decade ago at the height of the Asian crisis and the contagion effect on Brazil. Actually the advantages of free trade and a global trading system that benefits Brazil as well as China and India and other countries that buy its commodities such as iron ore is more now than ever because these nationas are benefitting from this trade. Because of the high prices of commodities and the agricultural products of Brazil, it has a currrent account surplus and its currency is strengthening. Instead of having to go to the IMF for assistance Brazil has large foreign exchange reserves that support its currency and which help it push up its investments as a share of GDP from 19% to closer to 25%, which should enable it to sustain about 5% growth year after year., according to Sergio Vale of MB Associados. A strong real, lower interest rates, and consumer credit have boosted the purchasing power of the middle class and the antipoverty programs of the Lula government have helped the poorer classes have a stake in the development. According to a recent Observador/Ipsos survey 23 million Brazilians have left social classes D and E and joined class C whose distinctive markings are a rented apartment, a car and some new gadgets. Actually quite to the contrary of the impression created by this article Brazil according to a former central bank governor is now showing a new enthusiasm for this kind of development which encompasses free trade and markets, a feeling that the stockmarket is not a casino and being part of the world economy is a good thing. The big discoveries of oil at Tupi and Carioca-Sugar Loaf in Atlantic offshore waters by Petrobras even though they are in miles deep waters and require special expertise must only have reinforced this mood. The danger to Brazil's enthusiasm comes not from nationalism of different countries trying to find better ways of meeting the aspirations of their people but from the risks in a global slowdown that started with the US subprime and mortgage crisis, the resulting credit tightening, and fall in consumption thats expected after years of overspending by the American consumer. Its now upto these individual countries, like Brazil, China, India and Russia, Japan as well as Germany France and other countries that are not directly part of the housing bubble and subprime and mortgage securitization mess affecting the USA, and the UK and Ireland and Spain to a lesser extent, to find ways of maintaining more modest but still substantial growth to meet the growing aspirations of people in these countries. In this sense the policy errors and regulatory errors made during this last decade in the US will actually have hurt the world economy and markets in a serious manner, and it is this that has now to be managed in a better way by these countries with the close cooperation between them and the USA. The situation in Brazil is repeated in the experience of India, China and Russia where for the first time there is enthusiasm for being part of the world economy. In the light of this development there is more reason for hope and more need for careful navigation mechanisms for these and other countries to weather the difficulties from a global slowdown and still sustain development that itself could help the USA work its way out of the current crisis through its exports....

LyrArc Article Gist
China's view on its new Air Defense Zone as expressed by the Foreign Ministry is that if European countries and Japan are entitled to set their own air defense zones then China should be able to set its own zone. The differences with Asian neigbors and the U.S. arises over the fact that this overlaps with the zones of S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan and also covers the area of the disputed Senkaku Islands. Other problems lie in the ambiguous wording and failure to share this information in advance with other countries. As it stands B-52's from the U.S. and Japanese planes entered the zone on Nov. 29, and Chinese fighter jets tracked the planes but there was no incident. U.S. civilian airlines have agreed to follow the rules set by China for the air defense zone, and the U.S. government says it will let the airlines make the decision to follow the zone. The EU protested the setting up of the new air defense zone.

LyrArc Article Gist
Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Chile's new constitution was drafted after a vote on a constitutional convention in which many people not involved before and on the fringes of society including indigenous groups were elected. More than half are independents and from different groups of society not well represented before. As a result of this the lack of experience has led to enshrining every single right that one could think of instead of focusing on what the protests were about about - the pension system, unfairness in access to health housing and education in the way funds are allocated from the budget, and promoting fairness in government.  At this time there is no certainty that it will be passed. A 36 year old student protest leader Gabriel Boric is the president elected after two years of protests about the unfairness of the system that took shape under a constitution written by a military dictator Pinochet who ran the country from 1973 to 1990. Pinochet came to power in a coup that is common in the history of South American Republics such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile and other countries. During the period of the government of Marxist president Salvador Allende the country was polarized resulting in the military taking over.  If the constitution is rejected a new convention will be formed to write a new constitution. In following the Structure of the US, Canadian, or British constitution, or the Indian it is important to look at the document so that it will stand the test of time rather than simply enumerating the rights of man. It is also important to focus on how to make the basic rights such as food, housing and education be well funded and society to be run along lines of basic fairness in incomes, while protecting enterprise and industry that can create new wealth for the country. The large South American economies are mainly dependent on commodities for export and there is a need to fund new business sectors which are not in commodity products- copper in the case of Chile- so that the economy can develop in a way that funds progress in incomes. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This and other WSJ, NYT, and other articles say Minnesotan Tim Walz started out as a moderate in a rural Republican leaning district, and shifted to being "liberal" and "progressive" using labels that have by 2024 lost meaning and lost common sense. Tim Walz is accused by the existing culture of being this or that label when he is simply following his instincts about what it means to live in the Age of the Enlightenment that marks all European societies and gave them a head start over Chinese and Indian feudal society during the 19th century Industrial Revolution. When one looks back at the period after Kennedy-Johnson in the sixties, American political economic social and culture has gone through a shift to turn its back on workers and families, turn its back on the "Enlightenment" itself under a culture shift. It happened under administrations both Republican and Democratic over 50 years since 1970. Under a Republican Congressman, and following this a Governor of California, a Texas Congressman and Texas Governor, and under Governors of southern states Georgia and Arkansas, a Congressman from Illinois, and a NBC television show personality. That culture shift has become so instilled at this point that labels such as progressive and liberal are attached in ways that make no sense, lack common sense. Do school meals have anything to do with politics, do you prefer poor family kids going hungry, is that your cultural thing? Is supporting college education for the depressed income groups have anything to so with politics? Only when one rejects the "Enlightenment" that accompanies the Industrial Revolution in Britain in the 19th century, the idea of modernity ushered in by the rejection of feudalism by the French Revolution,  would one reject the idea of giving access to education and through it to a better life for workers and families to all parts of society. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Kaushik Basu, economist at Cornell University, and Chief Economist at the World Bank, says the U.S. Federal Reserve should consider the current low labor participation rate and low inflation in its rate policy setting decisions in 2015. Basu points out that in the recent past unemployment has gone below the current 5.5% without increasing the risks of inflation. He cites the period from July 1997 to August 2001 when inflation was below 5%, and at some points below 4%, yet inflation in 2002 was close to 2%. The large number of discouraged workers in this economic cycle has placed the unemployment rate below what it really is, says Basu.

LyrArc Article Gist
The World Bank annual report on development focuses on agriculture as the means to reducing poverty in Africa and Asia, with the poorest farmers in Africa, South Asia and parts of China

LyrArc Article Gist
The stimulus checks in government pandemic aid packages are being spent prudently in the US. Government aid checks were sent out in the first wave since March 2020 and now again in the second wave in 2021. The stimulus pandemic checks are being allocated wisely. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study shows that Americans saved about 36% of the first stimulus payment checks, 29% was spent, and 35% was used to pay down debt. For the second stimulus payment underway in 2021 this survey also shows Americans are expected to spend even less and use even more to pay down debts. With stores mostly closed, travel restricted, and consumers not having the opportunities to spend, and the sense of insecurity, additional income from unemployment checks, saving has increased. Americans saved $1.4 trillion in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to half that in the same period in 2019, according to analysis by Berenberg Economics. That amount is about 10% of household spending. The tight spending during 2020 means, say economic researchers, that spending will jump in 2021 after the vaccination drive. The trend is positive in that Americans tended not to save enough. People in China and India, tend to save more giving government a larger pool of savings to draw from in national infrastructure spending. In November 2020 Commerce Department estimate is that saving in the U.S. was 12.9%, up from 7.5% in November 2019. Anecdotal evidence shows U.S. savings accounts for people at the lower end of incomes have been depleted for years, hit by the unemployment of the 2009 recession. This was caused by errors by the banking community and business. To this is added people in arts and culture, people in professions involving contact, travel and leisure, food, during this pandemic ten years later. National priorities need to be set to bolster this part of American society and its core social fabric. The steps to bring home manufacturing jobs under Mr. Trump and the "Buy American" initiative under Mr. Biden is just the first step. More steps are needed and the resources, implementation and drive to bring America back to the healthy society of social cohesion and upward mobility aspirations under presidents Truman and Eisenhower in the 1950's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This exceptional article in the NYT by Emily Feng and Carlos Tejada shows the social changes taking place in China as more women and men decide to postpone marraige. For the first time there are more women than men in master's degrees programs in China. Women in China are now increasingly better educated and prefer to be independent, not dependent on their spouses as in the previous generation. A typical Chinese household has 3.1 people in 2015 compared to 4.43 people in 1982, according to the China National Bureau of Statistics. Fewer children, more people living alone, women living independently, and seniors living alone are some of the reasons.

LyrArc Article Gist
Adam Bryant's exceptional piece that provides the essence of the Qualcomm Way. Qualcomm CEO Steven Mollenkompf, describes the high tolerance for uncertainty in which the company and its managers operate. It is better, says Mollenkompf, to take risks when throwing the ball than when holding it, a piece of advice from his father using a basketball analogy. This mean approaching the fire as he puts it, when opportunities arise but less is known about the details and a high degree of uncertainty prevails. Here he describes how he hires and how he evaluates employees giving them a lot of room to learn, as basically mistakes can be corrected in his experience. It is a culture that encourages and makes sure the A's and B's have what is needed to influence things, not to spend energy on bringing a C to a B level. For this to happen rewards are given for the right kind of behaviours, and there is no tolerance for negative behaviours (jerks for example)- smart people have to get along with other smart people and that is important to get the company moving in the right direction. In evaluating he looks at contributions made over a longer period, doing the right things so that the organization takes opportunities and succeeds 5 years from today. Qualcomm's ability to grow in a rapidly changing tech environment and seize opportunities as they arise, may be attributed to this style of management....