LyrArc Article Gist
The view of regional Fed presidents indicates that the Fed may take a pause from any further intervention in financial markets. QE 2 was launched at a time when the government was at a deadlock for any further stimulus, and a deflationary trend was setting in. In August of 2010 inflation was on a downward trajectory, from 2.8% to less than 2.2% in a few months. A New York Times article by Paul Krugman pointed out the dangers of deflation. Alan Blinder argued for the need for Fed action with the deadlock in government over further stimulus in another op-ed in the Wall Street Journal at the time. The political deadlock continues with pressure to cut federal spending to reduce the deficit, reducing the chances of government support, and leaving the Fed as the sole source of support. The Fed initiated QE 2 in Novemeber 2010 when consumer prices were up 1.1% from a year earlier, and far below the Fed's 2% goal. In April 2011 consumer prices were up 3.1% over the prior year. Current TIPS prices suggest investor expectations of inflation of 2.8% over 5 years. Another deflationary trend could lead the Fed to take some sort of action in the presence of a political deadlock for government action....

LyrArc Article Gist
This behind the scenes account  shows how the NATO communique with policy declaration was prepared by July 6 before European leaders and Mr. Trump set foot in Brussels on July 11. It shows to what lengths key members in the Trump administration will go to achieve American objectives in preserving the NATO alliance. Particularly now that Russia is taking an aggressive stance to NATO near its borders.  General Mattis at Defense Department pushed for the 4 30's initiative which is about preparing a rapid deployment force to be ready by 2020. This is in the communique. Also in the communique is the setup of a command post in Norfolk, Virginia, ready to act to deploy forces in Europe. U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kailey Hutchinson, received the demand from National Security Adviser Bolton to have ambassadors from all countries work overtime to get the declaration done by July 6. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General supported this effort. All were concerned that there should be no repeat of the mess that happened for the G-7 communique when at the last minute president Trump refused to sign on, leading to derisive comments about Canada's Justin Trudeau. It was seen as critical to preserve the sense of unity in the U.S. alliance with Europe. This time there was no disruption even though Mr. Trump acted unpredictably in Brussels. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, joins Mette Frederiksen in Denmark as the first female prime minister in Sweden. Both are from the Social Democrats. She won by a single vote after an agreement with the Left Party to increase payments to pensioners, and alliance with the Greens. Under Sweden's strange and different system a minority vote can lead to formation of government- Andersson was elected with more votes against than in favor, 117 members of parliament in favor, 174 against, and 57 abstentions.  It is more about members not voting against so that in Sweden's system one has an absolute majority as a party if fewer than 175 parliamentarians oppose. This also means the budget that will pass will be the opposition's budget and Social Democrat Andersson will remain as prime minister, as opposition parties prefer Social democrats to right leaning anti immigrant parties. Today Germany's Social Democrat Olaf Scholz and Greens Habeck as "senior Minister," Elena Baerbock as foreign minister, are leading a new government in Germany. Social Democrats and Greens have undertaken the task of renewing investment in infrastructure and modernizing their countries in Northern Europe. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A political novice whose only political experience is being elected to the Bureau of Administrative Justice, is elected to be the 58th prime minister of Italy. Giuseppe Conte is a jurist. With him as deputy prime ministers are the leaders of the Northern League, Mr. Salvini, and the Five Star, Mr. Maio. 

The Northern League has taken anti-immigrant positions and sees the eurozone and euro currency as "a crime against humanity." The Five Star and the Northern League are in many ways polar opposites. Initially the anti-euro currency Paolo Savona was put forward as economy minister and rejected by the president.

LyrArc Article Gist
Litigation expenses and settlements for JP Morgan Chase at $17.7 billion for 2008-2012 now exceed the $16.1 billion for Bank of America, according to FBR Capital Markets. JP Morgan Chase plans to spend an additional $4 billion and commit 5000 new personnel to help it clean up the bank's risk and regulatory compliance problems. Of the $4 billon $2.5 billion go into litigation reserves, and $1.5 billion for a 30% increase in risk control staffing and other related expenses. As part of the changes CEO Dimon has put the most senior executives in charge of separate parts of regulatory problems. These executives cannot be overruled by business heads. In another change still to be made at other banks the top compliance officer reports to the chief operating officer of the bank not the general counsel. This change was made at the request of regulators who now meet about 50 times per month with compliance executives. The total control staff for compliance and risk are now at 15,000 in 2013, up from 8000 in 2012. At a 2 day business retreat at Martha's Vineyard compliance and control officers were invited for briefings and came away with equal authority as business chiefs. JP Morgan has also provided 750,000 hours of training on control and regulatory issues to its staff using McKinsey, Ernst Young and other firms. CEO Dimon sees the effort as making the bank stronger than ever and this has become a top priority for him, reflecting a change in his views from the period when the London Whale crisis first emerged. It also shows a leadership trait of Dimon as a learner who puts his full weight behind an effort after gaining new insights into hidden problems....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. quarterly seasonally adjusted annual growth rate for GDP for the second quarter 2015 is revised to 3.7% growth from the earlier forecast of 2.3%. The first half GDP growth is still low at 2.2% because of a weak first quarter in 2015. Consumer spending representing two thirds of economic output was up 1.8% in the 1st quarter, and 3.1% in the second quarter of 2015. Another factor relevant to economic growth is gross domestic income or GDI, GDP uses expenditures data and GDI uses income data. GDI was up 0.6% for the second quarter 2015, an average of the GDP and GDI numbers provided by the Commerce Department shows a 2.1% annual growth for the U.S. economy for the second quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
The FDIC acknowledges that it has not been able to get banks interested in a pilot program called the Legacy Loans Program. That program was designed to give the banks an opportunity to sell off $1 billion of troubled mortgages. Since November with the efforts of the Troubled Asset Program under Secretary Paulson to have the banks sell off these assets in an auction or some other way, the whole issue of getting the toxic or troubled assets off the books of the banks has been effectively shelved. The Obama administration's version of this was the Geithner Public Private Partnership program, but this like Paulson's TARP never really got off the ground. Instead several things have happened that have enabled banks to show higher profits and improve stock prices. The period from March 2009 to June 2009, a period of several months has seen bank stock prices recover and banks are now able to raise capital on their own from investors. The government's "stress tests" gave the banks credibility with investors and they were designed not to be so stringent as to affect confidence. The mark to market rule has also been relaxed so that banks are no longer required to show these toxic assets at prices that reflect large losses. Bank executives also are wary of the new executive compensation rules of the government. All of these things have combined to create asituation where some confidence has been restored, but at the same time experts are pointing out that the underlying problems of an estimated $1 trillion in troubled assets remains. Banks are even less likely to want to part with these assets at lower prices now that some semblence of confidence is returning, as they would then have to show large losses. What this implies is that if the economy suffered a setback, these problems would return and be just as intractable as ever....

LyrArc Article Gist
The wisdom of trying hard but not too hard. Productivity declines when trying too hard. It helps for the mind to get rest and come back to the task refreshed, which means push yourself but only so much and continue to work at it steadily. There is no such thing as achieving 100%, it could mean the goals set were not ambitious enough or that the goals were too hard acting as a demotivating influence. Also minutae or stuff that is not that important can creep into that extra 15% to get to 100%. 

LyrArc Article Gist
By dropping most coronavirus restrictions including masks, social distancing and size of gatherings, and opening night clubs, England is risking the same sudden rise in new cases from variants that hit the Netherlands last week. Analysis of what happened in the Netherlands shows nightclubs and bars as the origins of 40% of the new cases in the Netherlands. Prime minister Rutte of the Netherlands apologized for this kind of reopening after a big jump in cases in Netherlands.Seven day average in the UK is at 46,000 for the last week. With 40% of the UK population not fully vaccinated, the new variants can spread faster and mutate in the unvaccinated population.  There is a basic difference in priority- getting to work and doing essential shopping compared to going to nightclubs. The Dutch government shut its nightclubs after reopening them in June. At this point England is split in how to reopen. The Mayor of London says masks will be compulsory in all public transit in London. And 55% of the UK public in a recent survey from YouGov think reopening in this way is the wrong thing to do. Another poll by Ipsos shows 70% of people surveyed saying they wanted mask wearing to be compulsory indoors for another month. One bar club owner says that he thinks what they are doing is wrong. Some students think that this is a recipe for transmission to happen quickly. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Patricia Cohen show here that the global economic system (globalization) was a project that benefitted one country: China. President Biden talks repeatedly about reversing these trends at an AFL-CIO campaign rally in Philadelphia- building infrastructure and infrastructure jobs here in the USA. Biden talked about investments, in trillions of dollars, in renewable energy, chips, science, airports, bridges, the I95 repair, that had all one common thread running through it- jobs in America, jobs for union workers and families. And the idea behind it of respect, respect for the dignity of hard work of workers in the US and union workers.

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ discloses that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission's Bureau of Competition 160 page report in 2012 described Google's anti-compettitive practices and recommended a anit-trust lawsuit for three anti-competitive practices. The WSJ obtained documents based on the Freedom of Information Act. Mullins and Winkler provide a detailed account of the practices cited in the report as anti-competitive. The FTC Commissioners did not act on the report and instead voted unanimously in 2013 to end the investigation after Google agreed to some voluntary changes. The report stated a different conclusion: Google's "conduct has resulted-and will result- in real harm to consumers and to innovation in the online search and advertising markets." Mullins and Winkler point out that this report shows Google's statement that no wrongdoing was found is incorrect.

LyrArc Article Gist
Huge orders made in 2023 for new planes from Boeing and Airbus now place India in the top ranks of the world civil aviation market. A large growing middle class is using air travel for business and tourism. The government is investing billions of dollars to build new airports in smaller and midsize cities in addition to Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore. A new aircraft industry is also coming up in Gujarat state.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Bank of Japan started investing in stocks during the financial crisis of 2009. It has increased its investments in Japan's stock market during the pandemic as a way to boost spirits in the stock market to $400 billion as of Sept. 30, 2020.  Of this $56 billion is a gain in the stock market after Japan's stock market gained 60% from a deep low during the early period of the pandemic. In March Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doubled the ceiling for BOJ to $115 billion for purchases of exchange traded funds.

The purpose of this activity is to encourage risk taking in the broader economy, and ensure prices are rising at a small but steady pace. The BOJ now owns 6% of the total value of the Tokyo stock market. The BOJ does not buy individual funds but invests in the market through exchange traded funds. The BOJ purchases were effective in easing uncertainty and promoting confidence as the pandemic surged in Japan and in the rest of the world.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US president DJT said today Feb. 13, 2025, as he introduced the new Health Secretary of the US-  "There's something wrong, and I think it's it's something that can be found out. In 2022, more than 40% of children had at least one chronic health condition, and today, nearly 80% of young adults do not qualify for military service in large part for health reasons. We're, ah, think of that 80%. Something is wrong and that's why immediately after Bobby is sworn in, I will be signing an Executive Order establishing the President's Commission To Make America Healthy Again. We have some great people on that commission chaired by our new secretary. This groundbreaking breaking commission will be charged with investigating what is causing The decades long increase in chronic illness, reporting its findings and delivering an action plan to the American people, and it's going to be a plan that people are really waiting to hear. Bobby, ah, I want to thank you. You've gone through a lot. It's taken great courage. You've been amazing actually. I'd call him and say, You're gonna be OK. And he said, I know, I really do. "Perhaps most importantly though, Bobby created a nationwide movement made up of millions and millions of mothers and fathers and young people and concerned citizens of every background who want to end this horrible chronic disease crisis that exists, exists in America. He's absolutely committed to getting dangerous chemicals out of our environment and out of our food supply and getting the American people the facts and the answers that we deserve after years in which our public health system has squandered the trust of our citizens, and they really have, they didn't, they don't trust us. They don't trust anybody, frankly they've gone through hell. There's no better person to lead our campaign of historic reforms and restore faith in American health care, and Bobby's going to do it. The United States spends more money in health than any other country on Earth, but we're growing sicker every year. We're not as healthy as countries that spend just a fraction of what we spend, so there's something wrong. He's going to figure it out. In recent decades we've seen staggering increases in cancer rates across all age demographics, including more than 40% increase in childhood cancer since 1975. Who can believe that? And an explosion in other chronic childhood illnesses not long ago, 1 in 10,000 people, children had autism. Now it's 1 in 36. Think of that 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10,000. Now it's 1 in 36. Who can believe that there's something wrong. There's something wrong, and I think it's it's something that can be found out. In 2022, more than 40% of children had at least one chronic health condition, and today, nearly 80% of young adults do not qualify for military service in large part for health reasons. We're, ah, think of that 80%. Something is wrong and that's why immediately after Bobby is sworn in, I will be signing an executive order establishing the president's commission to make America healthy again. We have some great people on that commission chaired by our new secretary. This groundbreaking breaking commission will be charged with investigating what is causing The decades long increase in chronic illness, reporting its findings and delivering an action plan to the American people, and it's going to be a plan that people are really waiting to hear. Bobby, ah, I want to thank you. You've gone through a lot. It's taken great courage. You've been amazing actually. I'd call him and say, You're gonna be OK. And he said, I know, I really do. He's really, ah, been supported amazingly by Cheryl and his family. And it was a very tough. It was a very nasty group of people that were after him, but he was tougher and he was smarter than they are, and that's why he's here today. There are very few people that could have withstood the, ah, the assault, but he was able to." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The large increase in auto sales in 2013 to 15.6 million follows a strong rebound in the U.S. market. The gains in sales over 2009 at the peak of the financial crisis, shows Chrysler at 93% gain in sales over 2009, VW at 92%, Nissan 62% and Ford 54%, according to Autodata. Smaller gains of 33% and 26% for Honda and Toyota. Chrysler's sales were 1.8 million in 2013- the company which depended on policymakers in the Obama administration for survival showed remarkable gains under Fiat's CEO Marchionne. VW returning to the market and stumbling repeatedly in the previous ten years, made serious gains with Jetta and Passat models designed and priced for the U.S. market. VW achieved sales of 0.6 million in 2013. Ford sales were 2.5 million, Nissan 1.2 million, Honda 1.5 million and Toyota 2.2 million for 2013. GM sales 2.8 million increasing by 35% in 2013 over 2009. The automobile story may be the biggest story in the U.S. manufacturing recovery. It also may have made a difference in the election campaign of 2012- with winning campaign points in key midwestern states such as Michigan and Ohio for the Obama administration's backing of a renewed auto industry around fuel efficiency improvements, new management, and new relationship with unions. In the period 1998-2007 average sales were 16 million in the U.S. market, with a nosedive to 10.4 million vehicles in 2009, and a rebound to 15.6 million in 2013, according to Autodata. Under previous union contracts with higher wages and pension costs, and a flurry of price incentives, car makers needed higher volume to make profits. Changes since the bankruptcy of 2 automakers include bringing in management from outside the auto industry- Marchionne at Chrysler, Whittaker and Akerson at GM came from other fields (telecom, finance) bringing new perspectives. Mulally at Ford was from Boeing commercial aerospace. Other changes were lower wages and pension costs with renegotiated contracts and relationships with unions, discipline to lower incentives, younger managers moved up and brought in from outside including Reuss and Barra at GM, Farley at Ford, lower sales to fleets, improved fuel efficiency for SUV's and pickups to change the cost of operating, a mix shifted to smaller and midsized cars, improved quality, and changing the buyer perception of American brands....

LyrArc Article Gist
Juarez, the city across from El Paso, has done well in the last 10 months with 27,000 jobs added in the maquiladoras. These foreign owned factories continue to attract business interest even with a drug war raging in the background. The reason is that Juarez connects straight to American Interstate highways and this makes it possible to deliver goods in 3-4 weeks in some cases from the time of order compared to 10 weeks for China. And wages can run as low as $4.21 an hour. Companies get incentives in the tax treatment and worker training is supported by the local government.

LyrArc Article Gist
A new Gallup poll shows only 7% of Americans find Media to be "trustworthy" and 38% say they have no trust at all in the Media, such as newspapers or television shows. We cite this as a Early Warning before readers look to the media to understand the Nation's president. Lyrarc.com found the president to have a score of 9 out of 10 for yesterday's NATO news conference for grasp of complex details, his way of getting this across in plain English to viewers, the complex problems he is tackling which no cognitive test cleared could enable one to tackle. Remember Corinthians 3-18, 3-19, when it comes to the Media that take the place of the People and the Nation-" Let no man deceive himself. If any man among you seemeth to be wise in this world let him become a fool, that he may be wise. For the wisdom of this world is foolishness with God. For it is written he taketh the wise in their own craftiness. And again, the Lord knoweth the thoughts of the wise, that they are vain." To have a Janet Yellen at Treasury, Jake Sullivan at National Security, Garland at Justice Department and others of that caliber around him Biden has to interact with and guide some of the sharper minds that America can put out. To have their confidence and their wholehearted support in what he is doing for the people, requires a sharp and alert mind from Biden. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in theWSJ says Krysten Sinema received donations from the securities industry of $2.2 million and is opposed to taking out the carried interest provision that is a key source of income for private equity managers. Senator Manchin says it is time to remove carried interest and this would raise $14 billion over a decade. Sinema is in favor of climate change action and favors a tax on carbon emissions.  On corporate minimum tax Sinema has worked with Senator Elizabeth Warren for the tax change that would require a minimum 15% corporate minimum tax to be paid by corporations. On precription drug prices Sinema has worked with Democrats on what the list of drugs should be for Medicare to negotiate drug prices.  As many of these key points have been worked out with Kristen Sinema it now remains to be seen how Democrats get the agreement of Sinema and any other members in Congress to prepare for the passage through Congress of the Climate Change action bill Schumer has negotiated in the Senate. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
PM makes a point at G7- should not the 1.4 billion people of India most of whom are poor have the same access to energy as the people in the rich countries of the G7? It is to ensure this access to energy for the over 1 billion people in India that India has sourced oil from all countries when geopolitical tensions have made the price of oil to jump to new highs. Modi told a session at the G7 meetings- "All of you will also agree with this that energy access should not be the right of the rich only- a poor family also has the same right to energy. And today when energy prices are sky high due to geopolitical tensions, it is more important to remember this thing." Modi said that it was by "taking inspiration from this principle" that "we delivered LED bulbs and cooking gas door to door in India and showed that millions of tons of carbon emissions can be saved while ensuring energy for the poor." Never before in history has this been done on this scale as hundreds of millions of women have benefitted in poor areas where cooking was done by burning wood, and electricity did not exist. Water by tap water in every home, cooking gas, and electricity are now within the reach of every family in India.  Has G7 even thought of these things? And of the scale of the challenge that is being met and the future challenges for climate, technology and health that are being tackled on an unprecedented scale? ...