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George Walden reviews "Opium and Empire" by Richard Grace, which focusses on the origins of Jardine, Matheson & Co., the British firm run by two Scottish traders Jardine and Matheson. This firm was at the centre of the trade in opium carried out on the black market in China using opium brought from India. It paid for the shipping expenses to take tea and silks brought back in the British market. The confiscation of a shipment of opium in Canton, China, by a Chinese Commissioner led to the first of the opium wars. This ended with the Treaty of Nanking in 1842 negotiated by Foreigh Secretary Palmerston giving Britain possession of the island of Hong Kong. It was the long history of such depredations, including the Japanese invasion in the 1930's that led to the nationalism and rise of Communists led by Mao in China by 1945.

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HP' merger with EDS may give it a larger share of the technology services market but risks remain. The margins at EDS are low about 6% compared to double that at IBM. IBM has 74,000 employees in India, EDS has only 27,000 of its 140,000 employees in India.

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There are problems with TikTok as social media app that are shown under The Enemy Within in Movement for Global Literacy of Lyrarc.com that relate to global literacy of children spending many hours on the app taking time away from homework and reading, when over half of American children 12-18  perform below basic requirements on reading proficiency tests. Similar loss of reading comprehension in UK and France. China can regulate its internet by restricting it in ways that won't hurt literacy in China. India has banned the app.  There are problems with TikTok that relate to literacy and cultural literacy that Democrats or Republicans or the Supreme Court have failed to bring up let alone address. These concerns should grow in the minds of Americans concerned about preserving the cultural literacy that has existed in the US for the last 200 years- it is about who Americans are as a Nation of immigrants from Europe of the Renaissance and the Modern World. US is a mix of population from European nations of 204 million, of a black population of about 48 million in 2025, 7 million native Americans, and Spanish speaking Americans of 62 million, Asian population of 25 million. The US is at a critical juncture in deciding what kind of a nation it will be. Will it lose it's basic character of a nation which draws its inspiration from European civilization's defining characteristics of the Renaissance, the evolution of science and democratic forms of government leading to creation of the Modern World. The 25 million Asians immigrated to the US for a large part seeking this kind of modernization of society from what they left behind and this is largely true of Spanish speaking immigrants and Spanish settlers who settled California, Texas and Florida as Spain settled the American colonies before the English and French. TikTok ban opposed decreased from 2023 to end of 2024 by 18% from 50% to 32%, according to Pew Research. Pew does not say that this is the result of growing use of TikTok by teenagers and children for entertainment by 12-15% in the period 2023-2025. Between 2021 and 2023 use of TikTok in the US increased by 12% from 21% to 33% from which we can extrapolate that it increased by about 12-15% between 2023 and 2025 if it is growing at the same pace. Politicians oblivious of the effects on cultural literacy in the US are allowing it to be embedded in the US in ways that hurt basic reading and cultural literacy skills. ...

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In 1933 Roosevelt helped set up the minimum wage but failed to index it to inflation. At $7.25 an hour in 2009 it still leaves people below the poverty line. "A self supporting and self respecting democracy sees no economic reason for chiselig workers' wages" FDR said at the time. It was set at 30 cents in 1933.

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The top fifth of earners in New York City earned 53% and the bottome fifth 3%. The proportion of New York City residents below the poverty line declined to 18,5% from 19.2% in year ended July 1, 2006. The proportion of poor children down to 27.3%. Figures are from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey.

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President Trump reiterated his threat to place tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods in addition to earlier tariffs on $250 billion in goods.  The problem China faces is that it China imports less, far less than the U.S. does. China has only $10 billion in U.S. goods to place tariffs on. This is after placing tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, mostly agricultural products such as soyabeans in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on the $250 billion of Chinese goods. China could place a ban on imports from Boeing or restrict the access for U.S. companies to the Chinese market. U.S. companies have invested billions of dollars in the China and employ about 2 million Chinese in well paying jobs. Concerns about unemployment would be uppermost to prevent these jobs being affected. Other concern for China is the loss of foreign investment as relations deteriorate. Already supply chains in some products such as clothing and consumer products is shifting other countries in Asia. In automobiles the regional hubs are expected to shift with India as a potential hub for Asia, and Mexico preserving its place as a North American hub following renegotiation of NAFTA. In media the dispute is leading to a shift from Chinese consumers buying Adidas instead of Nike and Huawei smartphones instead of Apple.  For an already slowing economy this hurts China more than the U.S. which is why the U.S. is pushing China to settle with an agreement that the U.S. can trust to bring down China's trade surplus. For the U.S. as most of the loss in exports is in agricultural products the solution has been to provide government aid to farmers, and for Mr. Trump to use the issue to point out that he is fighting for U.S. interests and for fairness. This is why the trade dispute poses more problems for China. Because the surplus is so wildly skewed in China's favor after the inaction of many U.S. presidents just as it was for Japan in the eighties, the situation appears to be headed towards a definite reversal of the lopsided trade surplus enjoyed by China. In the process the U.S. plans to build up the competitive edge it has lost to some degree.  ...

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See the BBC show geography of the Straits Hormuz of Iran and Saudi/Oman. Would Iran block the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow waters in the Persian Gulf where Oman, Saudi Arabia on one side and Iran on the other meet. At some points the corridor in the sea which is 20 miles wide at narrowest point, is 108 miles long, is only 6 miles wide for oceangoing tankers carrying a fifth of world oil supplies. The reason Iran woul be hesitant to do this are- Iran supplies China with discounted oil through these Straits. Iran central bank says $67 billion of its total oil exports go through the Straits Hormuz, 90% of it to China. China gets a third of its oil supplies from the Saudis/Iran through these Straits. India gets 40% of its oil supplies, Japan 75% and South Korea 60% of crude oil supplies through tankers plying this waterway. It would put China and  all industrialized countries in opposition to Iran. It would also cut Iranian oil exports and leave it's oil based economy unfunded.   ...

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Yuen Yuen Ang presents the view that China is an autocracy with democracy characteristics. Her view of Xi is conventional reflecting contemporary ideas. Yet Xi was profoundly influenced by his father Xi Zhongxun and mother Qi Xin, revolutionary heroes in the fight against the British, Japanese and Chiang Nationalists which shape his view of the world. Zhongxun also shaped the response to the struggle for modernization after failures of the Maoist period, in efforts he made under Deng. In this sense he adapted to different conditions. This view of China's leaders is that they are intuitive and human, that China is simply responding intuitively under Xi to the conditions it faces and perceptions about these conditions to maintain the wellbeing of the vast majority of the Chinese people after the century of struggles 1850-1950 and later missteps. The experiment with capitalism and a new generation with no memories of the past meant to Xi and other Chinese leaders that everything that an earlier generation (his own parents) had fought for in the struggle against the British and Japanese invasions could be lost quickly, if China was allowed to fall into the kind of corruption and self-seeking leaders that marked the Chiang regime of the 1930's. This led to the effort to consolidate the gains of the Chinese nation made over 2 centuries since the rise of the British in Asia in 1800, with Xi seeing no choice but to take responsibility and the initiative as his father Zhongxun had done in the 1930's and 1940's to breakout of isolated regions in the north of China. The sudden shift to adapt to open covid policy is also apparent from Zhongxun's ability to adapt to and lead the changes after Deng's experiment with a market economy. A report by Rohan Premkumar in the Hindu on Jan 25 on a British sub-jail in the Nilgiri hills of Tamilnadu shows prisoners from the Opium wars with China sent to this jail by the British. These events still shape Chinese perceptions of the world- the backwardness in faceoffs with the west and the cost to the mainland Asian nations India and China. Inland river based civilizations on the Ganges and the Yangtze that failed, as Adam Smith says in The Wealth of Nations, to change in ways that the Renaissance  and the Industrial Revolution changed Europe. ...

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New winds in South Asia. Democratic change and peaceful economic development comes to Nepal as elctions are held for a new Constituent Assembly to write a new constitution. One leader says Nepal cannot ignore the winds of liberalization privatization and globalization. What are the effects of change in China, in India and recent changes in Pakistan on Nepal? And the changes and two transitions in Russia to Yeltsin and then to Putin. And again in Eastern Europe. All showing divergent paths to peaceful economic development They have to be significant.

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Russia stated at a meeting of OPEC oil producers that it would not accept cuts in oil production to stabilize the oil market. The coronavirus effects on the world economy have resulted in a sharp decline in demand for oil. This lack of an agreement among oil producers is leading to a steep drop of 30% in oil prices on March 9, 2020. The Russian position in talks was that it was too early for deep cuts considering that the  true impact of the coronavirus on the world economy was unknown, and that the loss of 1 million bbd from Libya had already reduced production. Experts say the Russians wanted to stabilize oil prices around $50 a barrel and the Saudis a bit higher. Under the OPEC agreement Russia would have to reduce its production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbd), in addition to 2.1 million bbd from previous cuts that would be extended to March, which it found unacceptable. The impact of the double whammy of continued increase in coronavirus cases around the world and the drop in oil prices as a reflection of business confidence was also felt in world stock markets.  Russia's budget is less sensitive to oil prices than the Saudis. The Saudis need somewhere near $80 per barrel to breakeven. Analysts say Russia does not want to lose market share to American shale oil companies which do not have output cuts and benefit from lower oil prices. Shale oil companies in the U.S. are struggling in the present situation of low prices as many of them need $65 a barrel in price to breakeven. About 208 shale oil companies in the U.S. made bankruptcy filings since 2015.  The oil importing countries with increasing oil imports such as India will benefit from the drop in oil prices. Japan and other oil importing countries in Europe, Africa and Asia will also benefit as Russia and the Saudis go all out to increase production. ...

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Chevron plans to cut its annual capital spending by 26% in 2021 and make sharp cuts till 2025. Exxon is also making these cuts as oil demand has dropped sharply during the pandemic. Other forces are all acting at once fracking has brought an oversupply of oil and gas, and solar and wind energy technology has advanced to where it is less costly than coal. These forces are acting to keep energy prices low.  India is highly dependent on energy for developing the largest region in the world with about 1.7 billion people in South Asia. India's strategy is to advance solar production beyond the current level of being 36% of its energy mix to a much higher proportion by doubling solar capacity by 2025. This new energy mix and low oil prices makes it possible for the region to develop quickly to meet rising aspirations in the region. This also reduces dependence on coal that was used by China as the main energy source leading to health problems, and gives India an opportunity never before possible in history of development with healthy sources of energy.   ...

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This editorial in the New York Times points out that the new president of the ANC party -that runs South Africa and has a monopoly of power in the post Apartheid years, under Mandela, Mbeki and Zuma- faces a uphill task as the ANC remains deeply divided after supporting Mr. Zuma in office till the very end. Apart from the stagnant economy, there are challenges the ANC faces in the lethargy of the post Apartheid years, and the culture of corruption, and patronage management that led to mismanagement of state enterprises.

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The Economist touches on the problems in the India-U.S. relationship on the eve of President Bush's state visit to India. It points to the paradox of the continuing differences between two countries that are the largest democracies in the world and share western liberal ideas of governance and laws.

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The Thai government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has committed to buy unmilled rice from farmers at 15,000 baht or about $500 a ton for the harvest in 2011. This is pushing up world rice prices.

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There is a price for a socialist state run society adopting capitalism without understanding it. Russia experienced this in the 1990's as the Soviet system collapsed and the capitalist system took its place by 1990 with flagrant abuses. Only to be stabilized in the Putin years till the war in Ukraine affected the Russian economy. China avoided this fate by continuing its accelerated path to industrialization till the 2009 financial crisis. But hidden in its seemingly successful modernization effort was the role of LGFV's and selling of land to support the LGFV's. Local governments did not take on debt themselves, they passed on the debt to Local Government Financing Vehicles LGFV's- about 8 trillion dollars of debt 80%-90% not serviceable for interest payments, zombie status requiring borrowing for annual spending.  Most city councils or mayors did not understand these vehicles were debt and some even asked "do we have to pay it back?" LGFV's were not understood by mayors and city councils brought up under a socialist state run economy. They used it to follow the central government in Beijing's orders to come up with projects to boost growth year after year to rates of growth of 10% in the 1990's and 2000's, heedless of the risks because they never really understood the capitalist system and its pitfalls.  As long as land could be sold there was some revenue for local governments and room for shifting $8 trillion in debt to other LGFV's. Once the construction industry collapsed and companies went bankrupt their were few buyers for land. The central government cannot take on some of this $8 trillion in debt. As a result China is now facing what the Russians faced - a crisis from lack of grasp of the severe pitfalls of capitalism when its risks are not understood for economies that were in the 20th century experiencing upheavals, wars and then socialist state run economies. What this means is that the Chinese economy will slow, has no choice but to slow down for the next decade to find solutions to this debt overhang over its economy and industrial plans. It also means China's support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict is also problematic for China's internal growth to meet the aspirations of its people. As long as the administration in the US continues to pursue its own economic policies for growth as Biden has done by investing in the American economy, it will have the opportunity to lead the free world and be able to hold out hope for aspirations of countries and regions such as India, Africa and Latin America. ...

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Margo Oge, headed the Office of Transportation and AIr Quality at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from 1994-2012. Here she points out the contradiction in what automakers supported when the current fuel emission standards were set and today's effort by the Trump administration to loosen the standards. She also points to the contradiction between the trends in Europe, China, India, which are moving towards stricter standards and the U.S. reversing direction.  About one dozen states in addition to California have the power under the Clean Air Act to set their own standards. These states make up about one third of the U.S. market. What would result is a fracturing of the U.S. market. This would create problems for automakers as one expert recently pointed out in the NYT, that automakers should be careful what they wish for.  Automakers such as Ford say they support the current fuel emissions standards, yet call for flexibility. GM's CEO, Mary Barra, says she supports current standards. Toyota also says it supports the current emission standards. And diesel engines are now declining in Europe as a result of fuel emissions standards to preserve good air quality. History has shown the automakers have suffered badly from competition when emissions and fuel efficiency standards were lax. During the last decade the auto industry in Michigan faced decline as a result of poor management decisions and lack of foresight in pushing forward with new technologies in this field. The current recovery in the auto industry is a result of a reversal of the poor decisions made between 2000-2008, including fuel emissions and fuel efficiency, air quality decisions.    ...

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Weymouth interviews Colombian President, Juan Manuel Santos. Santos was finance minister, foreign trade minister, and defense minister under former president Alvaro Uribe. The U.S. is negotiating a free trade agreement with Colombia. Santos has improved relations with neighboring Venezuela, which under Uribe were strained upto the breaking point. He is also improving relations with Ecuador, and working to strengthen the Andean Development Council. Santos says Colombia has a smaller drug problem after defeating the major cartels, though mini-cartels still operate in the country. On fiscal responsibility Colombia has introduced a rule in the constitution to limit deficits to 1% of GDP. Santos expects 5% growth in 2011. He hopes to protect Colombia's growth in a global financial crisis by strengthening regional reserve funds, multilateral cooperation of Andean countries, and central bank monetary policies. Santos plans to abolish the DAS intelligence agency in 3-4 months. He plans to create a new intelligence agency and transfer functions such as immigration that were under DAS to other agencies. He has also launched investigations and action against corruption in the government and against public officials working with local mafias. To do this he is working with the attorney general, prosecutor general, the controller general, and police. This has led to criticism from Uribe who sees the changes in policy pointing to deficiencies in the Uribe administration. Colombia is a country with a population of 46 million and plays a significant role in the northern part of Latin America. Santos assumed office in 2010 and was the choice of Alvaro Uribe. His policies have won him a 71% approval rating....