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The PBOC, China's central bank, injects $65 billion into China's banking system in Dec. 2014 to get banks to increase lending as the economy slows further. Experts say the growth rate is likely to drop below 7%. At the same time the central bank and economic policy makers are concerned about excesssive debt in the economy, shadow banking and local government debt risks. It cut benchmark interest rates by 0.25% in 2014. Other risks are developing as the property market cools off and investors shift investment to equity markets creating a surge of 50% in the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges for 2014. As a result economic policy is not as effective in today's environment.

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China's traders took advantage of low December prices for oil to build inventories, It made Iran the largest supplier of oil to China, followed by the Saudis and Angola.

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WTO Trade talks and the negotiations between EU, US, Brazil, India, China, Japan, and Canada continue with difficulties in getting India's agreement. Mr Nath of India has come to speak for all the world's poorest countries in Africa and Asia and also the growing emerging economies like S. Korea and India. THe EU and the USA are keen on access to India's growing market. And India and Brazil want to see concessions from the EU and the USA that will help the poorer countries especially promises made at the Doha round that were to ease global poverty that have not been fulfilled. With the difficult economic situation in the EU and the USA there is less give on their side and the Indians and the Brazilians are insistent.

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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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Productivity as measured by GDP per hour worked was $44 in Italy in 2009. It has remained the same as in 1999. In the EU-15 (first 15 members of the EU) the GDP per hour worked increased from 47.9 in 1999 to 49.0 in 2009. For the U.S. this GDP in the same period went up from $56.0 to $58.0. This shows the lack of productivity growth in Italy. With the current focus on Italy's slow economic growth efforts are underway to make changes that would increase growth. GDP growth in Italy was 1.3% in 2010, compared to 1.8% for the eurozone, according to Eurostat. Italy's Minister for Public Administration Renato Brunetta says he would like to cut that gap in half. Some of the measures in the recently passed $40 billion spending cuts package, include efforts to help the underdeveloped southern region. This includes cutting red tape for real estate developers, and streamlining accounting for business. Italy's growth comes mainly from exports that make up about one fourth of GDP. But this comes from lower tech sectors such as textiles, chemicals and machinery, where it must compete with China and other countries. In May 2011 industrial output was up by 1.8% in Italy,compared to 7.5% for Germany. Another problem is the large and inefficient public sector and the gap between protected state workers and a younger generation- with one in three Italians 15-24 unemployed....

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That the Tibet issue and suppression of Tibetans takes centre stage in the Taiwan election with both Ma and Hsieh candidates of the Nationalist party and the Progressive Democratic party both denouncing Tibetan suppression shows how far the Tibetan issue can change things around the world. What was once taken for granted that both candidates favored better relations with China is now in question. Hsieh especially has taken part in candlelight vigils for Tibet and a huge pro Tibet rally is being organized by his running mate. And Ma is backing off from his China position in the face of shifting opinion in Taiwan to the suppression in Tibet.

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The Cleveland address and question answer session on July 10, 2011, showed Janet Yellen at her best. She was applauded several times for her answers especially for her emphasis on clarity. One question was about the use of the term"quantitative easing," couldn't the Fed have found a better word? Yellen pointed out that the Fed at the time used "buying of long term assets" as the phrase for that activity, after the media referred to it as "quantitative easing." That term stuck and the Fed ended up accepting the use of the term to refer to the Bernanke Fed's program. Yellen also said the buying of long term assets was intended to raise long term rates, and was different from the effort in Japan of buying short term assets that failed to stimulate the Japanese economy. Throughout Yellen was entirely comfortable making clear what she had in mind. At one point she was asked about the IMF director Lagarde's statement that the U.S. is better off not raising rates in 2015, because of the uncertain economic outlook in Europe, China and other places. Yellen's response was that this was one more view that she considered along with the views of several other Fed governors who had different views and reading of the economic situation. She emphasized that the increase in the rates will be very gradual, a position very consistent with her earlier statements, and this made the long tem path of interest rates more important said Yellen, than the particular time when the Fed first raised rates. For her clarity, empathy, and sound grasp of the economic situation, few Fed chairman have come close to Yellen, as was evident in the audience's grateful response. ...

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The Afghan School in Kabul run by former Taliban officials for girls and boys is one of the best schools in Kabul. Boys and girls attend chemistry classes together. Taliban officials see the schools as a bridge between madrassas and modern schools, and now accept the idea that as long as Islamic ideals are respected girls should go to school like boys. A former Taliban foreign minister- of the government the U.S. ousted under president Bush- now helps his daughter with homework. The changes in neighboring Pakistan where the government of Nawaz Sharif is pushing modern ideas and technological development are likely to push progress in Afghanistan as well- this happens as the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan. The U.S. leaves a region hungry for progress as new governments pushing technological development supported by business emerge in Pakistan and India in 2013-2014. Unfulfilled promises of economic development are at the forefront of people's minds. A transformation as large as the shift from communism in China to state run market economy and the technological and economic transformation that followed is now at its early beginnings in the region. This shift would be from religious strife and socialist structures to a market economy....

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The fruits of the failed "no show" Obama administration policies in the Middle East, that allowed reckless intervention by the Putin government of Russia in Syria, and failed ignominously to offer timely full moral and tactical support to the participatory democracy movement in the Middle East. The cost relatively small compared to the cost already incurred by the Bush aministration, and most of the heavy lifting to be done by the young people looking for a better life in the region. And a cost that would make much larger additional cost less needed under future administrations to correct policies of neglect by the Obama administration. A failure in terms of ideals today, and a failure seen in terms of the cost that is borne by the U.S. from a policy of neglect. It comes from failing to grasp the fact that the U.S. is a leader for much of the world, and protects in its hands- in its ideals and its best efforts to live up to these ideals- the aspirations of the vast majority of the people of the world, including hundreds of millions of people in China, India, Brazil, Mexico and the large developing regions of the world....

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A call to U.S. and European leaders to uphold civilized values after the repeated use of chemical weapons and poison gases in Syria by Bashir Assad. Roberts quotes the poet Wilfrid Owen who fought on the Western Front in World War I and witnessed the horror of gas attacks at the time. The poem is "Dulce et Decorum Est." It describes a chlorine gas attack at that time. The Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Aphyxiating, Poisonous and other Gases, banned their use in 1925. The hesitant response of president Obama to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by Assad compares very unfavorably with the Sarkozy-Cameron action in Libya and president Clinton's response in Kosovo after attacks on civilian populations. It also fails to uphold civilization values. This is true also of the government of Hollande in France, Merkel in Germany, which have failed to respond. The focus on domestic issues and the eurozone crisis does not make any less the responsibility of western leaders on this issue. Russia under Putin and China under Jinping have not grasped the importance of standing up for civilization and values to be credible in world affairs....

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India's airlines together will lose $1 billion to $2 billion in 2008, twice what they lost in 2007, according to aviation analysts. The airlines face a glut of domestic overcapacity. Until recently therre were 50 flights between Bombay and Delhi with 4 seats chasing each passenger according to Keskar, Boeing vice president in charge of sales in India. Boeing and Airbus are advising airlines in India to delay deliveries of planes so that the overcapacity does no lasting damage and the industry can recover from this as they see India as a boom market in the future. Boeing expects India will need 1001 aircraft till 2027. Reasons for the airline losses are that in the 12 months ending April 2008 passenger traffic increased by only 7%, and in the 12 months before that by 31%, and in the 12 months prior by 59%. Air India is cutting its domestic flights by 15% returning 14 leased jets to their owners as the leases expire and freezing the size of its fleet. Worldwide the airline industry could lose $6.1 billion in 2008 with a third of the losses in the USA. Passenger volumes fell in China for the second straight month in June but China's airlines appear stable because of milder competition and government support....

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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...

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China's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, has approved $156 billion in new infrastructure projects, new subways, highways and other projects in recent weeks. The response is more carefully planned than the stimulus projects in 2009-2010, which are now seen as excessive response creating the prospect of bad loans in the banking system and causing inflation. The stimulus spread over 2 years, 2009 and 2010, was by government's initial estimates about 4 trillion yuan and this does not include additional local government spending as the government encouraged spending. This time the stimulus is about 1 trillion yuan or $158 billion, 2% of GDP, spread over 4 years, with projects going through careful review, according to Nomura economist Zhang Zhiwei. The Chinese government wants to avoid losing gains made in controlling a property bubble and holding down inflation.

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India had 11 interest rate increases in 18 months, but this has not slowed the rise of inflation. The Wholesale Price Index is around 10%. Inflation expectations as measured by the Reserve Bank of India are around 12% in mid-2011.