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Alexei Kudrin , Russia's Finance Minister announced plans to increase procurement from Russian technology companies from the 15% of state procurement orders of $133 billon to encourage technology companies. Russia's overdependence on oil and mineral exports for 80% of its exports creates a dangerous situation exacerbating a technology gap with western countries. See the related article on the report on the 21st century by the Institute for Contemporary Development that sees a drain of talent to the west if current trends continue.

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Rep. Paul and Rep Barney Frank call for cutting defense spending as they convene a Sustainable Defense Task Force of defense analysts. This task force recommends $1 trillion in cuts over the next 10 years. Defense Secretary Gates is preparing the Defense department for this change. Gates is looking for smart ways to cut costs while still keeping the defense capabilities intact, but cutting unnecessary overhead and unnecessary programs like the second type of engine for the F-35 fighter jet.

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Compared with 2007 when participatory notes (p-notes), which provide anonymity for institutional investors, comprised 56% of foreign institutional investment, the p-notes comprise only 15% in 2010. This is good for India as investors are registering as institutional investors and there is less likelihood of speculative capital behaviour, as institutions think longer term. India received $18 billion in stock market investments from overseas investors in 2007, a record amount, and with $11 billion invested so far this will be exceeded in 2010.

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IKEA is raising the minimum hourly wage by 10% in 2016. From Jan 1, 2016 the minimum hourly wage at its existing U.S. stores will go up from $10.76 an hour to $11.87 an hour. IKEA is working to reduce staff turnover by raising the wages. In 2014 IKEA indicated that it would calculate the minimum wage taking into account local living costs in each market.. That action resulted in a 17% increase for half of IKEA's employees in 2014, according to IKEA.

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With the U.S. Federal Reserve pulling back from its monetary easing policy and the ECB holding steady with a low interest rate policy, bond investors are finding attractive buys for government bonds of Italy and Spain. 10 year government bonds of Italy yielded 4.2%, and Spain's government bonds yielded 4.3% on Aug. 22, 2013. By comparison German government bonds yielded 1.88%, narrowing the gap between the bonds of southern European countries and German bonds as the eurozone economies recover in 2013-2014.

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House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan said in remarks at a breakfast hosted by the Wall Street Journal- he would submit a budget plan that would balance the budget in 10 years by cutting government spending and without raising tax revenues. This comes before the House vote to suspend the debt ceiling till May 18, 2013, giving more time for deficit negotiations. Ryan said: "Hopefully, people can come together to agree on getting a down payment on the debt crisis."

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In an historic event, the young Senator who introduced bills on improving fuel efficiency in the Senate only a few years ago, announces his proposal for a single national fuel efficiency standard of 35.5 miles per gallon in 2016. Mr Obama had the chief executives of 10 global auto companies all gathered together, as he made the announcement. It reverses decades of conflict on this issue, and puts the US at the forefront of developing new technologies for fuel efficiency and emissions control.

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The Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats are both working to scrap alaw that says all 22 of Germany's nuclear plants must be shut down by 2022. The preliminary agreement reached between the two parties will allow th reactors to operate for longer till renewable energy cn fill the gap. According to the German Association of Energy 23% of energy comes from nuclear, 42% from coal plants, 15% from renewable energy,14% from naturual gas, and 6% from other sources.

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According to Goldman Sachs David Kostin the S&P at 500 is quite possible, and its not abig stretch. At earnings per share estimate of $40 to $50 a share and a P/E ratio of 10 which are realistic in this climate, you get the S&P in the 500 range. the notion of the Dow at 5000 and the S&P 500 at 500 are not unrealistic especially if the stimulus is not adequate or not as effective.

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Americans are using diesel in only about 3% of cars. Diesel is now available at many pump stations. About 50% of cars in Europe run on diesel, cleaner better diesel engines are now made by the Germans, and new diesel models are being introduced in the USA by foreign automakers. This could lead to a jump in the use of diesel in the USA. Diesel may be 15-20 cents more expensive per gallon than gasoline but gives much better mileage

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Makin's view the Fed print money to purchase mortgages directly or purchase Treasury securities directly. Monetary easing has not ocurred and Makin thinks this risks a severe recession. The 15% of homeowners with negative equity and the 20% with marginal equity have little access to credit, a serious foreclosure crisis is looming. Feldstein bernanke and now Makin all lend their voices for serious action to help homowners from going into negative equity where its rational just to walk away from their homes.

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The increased availability of car loans and eased standards for auto loans has played a large part in rising auto sales in the U.S. Annual sales of cars and light trucks maintained a pace of 14.1 million vehicles in July 2012, and could reach 15 million for 2012. Lenders see the car loan market as more profitable and less risky than mortgage lending because of the shorter periods of the loans- 3 to 5 years and the low default rate. Currently only about 2.52% of auto loans are 30 days past due for second quarter 2012, according to Experian. Auto loans outstanding at the end of the 2nd quarter 2012, are $725 billion, according to the automotive division of Experian, up 5.7% from a year ago. The market for securities backed by auto loans has rebounded since the 2008 financial crisis. About $50 billion in bonds backed by auto loans were issued in the Jan-July 2012 period, according to Dealogic, compared to $53 billion in 2011. To get a picture of how this compares with mortgage securities- auto loan backed securities are up 33% above pre 2006 levels, and mortgage backed securities are about 70% below 2006 levels. A recent Fed survey of bank lending officials shows easing lending standards reported by 20% of respondents for the last 3 months for auto loans, compared to 3% for prime residential mortgages and 11% for credit cards....

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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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Sony's television business is expected to show a profit in 2014 after years of losses. Sony is concentrating on the high end 4K part of the television business. It has 8% global market share in televisions compared to Samsung at 27% and LG at 15%.

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FAA to limit flights during peak hours to 80 flights, down from the 100 flights in August that led to traffic congestion and delays at JFK.

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Moore points out that there are twice as many people working for the government in the U.S. (22.5 million) than in manufacturing (11.5 million). In 1960, the situation was quite different, there were 15 million workers in manufacturing and 8.7 million working for the government. More workers in the U.S. work for the government than in construction, farming, fishing, forestry, manufacturing, mining and utilites put together. Every state in the U.S. has more people working for the government- except for Indiana and Wisconsin- than people in manufacturing industrial goods. And California has 2.4 million government workers, which is twice the number in manufacturing in that state. New York and Florida have a 3:1 ratio, and New Jersey a 2.5:1 ratio of government workers to workers making industrial goods. Part of the reason for this is the huge increase in productivity and the advances in technology that make it possible to have higher production with fewer workers. This kind of productivity is missing in the government sector. And efforts to improve productivity tend to be blocked by the unions who favor the status quo....

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A meeting of European leaders from Germany, France, Spain, and Italy with African leaders from Libya, Chad and Niger, comes up with priority steps to take for reducing migration from African countries to Europe. Steps include aid to countries with high flow of migrants. The EU gave $10 million to Niger to fight illegal immigration. The French president Macron suggested setting up hotspots from where migrants could apply for legal migration. Chancellor Merkel cautioned that this applied only to humanitarian refugees and not to economic refugees. The presidents of Chad and Niger point out that the cause is poverty, and smugglers need to be diverted to other occupations such as commerce or farming. During 2017 to August 125,000 migrants have come across the Mediterranean on boats. Smugglers put people on small boats leading to many deaths and rescue efforts. 

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This NYT report looks at the Kushner family's history including problems the family real estate business has from family troubles over two decades. Jared Kushner, 37 years,  is senior White House adviser. The report says the rise in prominence of the Kushner family in politics has adversely affected the family business because of increased scrutiny and investigations, and deals with China for financing have stalled as a result. A major project of the Kushner family, a 41 story dilapidated Fifth Avenue Tower in New York that was to be replaced with a new structure now lacks financing from Chinese investors as a result of public scrutiny. Only 10 months are left before a $1.2 billion mortgage on this aging property lacking enough tenants comes due for the elder Kushner. 

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Only 27 of 249 Republicans in the House of Representatives have accepted that Mr. Biden won the presidential election, the rest refused to answer. And only 32 of these Republicans in the House say they will accept if this is certified by the Electoral College. The Senate is split 50 Republicans to 48 Democrats with 2 runoff elections in Georgia. In one Senate seat a Libertarian candidate too a slice of the vote denying a clear victory to the Republican Perdue for that seat. In the other election for Senate seat with  about 20 candidates running no one could secure a clear win. Mr. Biden with a very thin margin of 13,000 votes in Georgia over Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump contested the election because of the unprecedented nature of the 2020 election with mail in votes allowed in a way and in huge numbers that was not always well organized to be fault proof. With federal elections being run by state officials in 51 states and not by a national election commission as in India, and each state improvising its way of handling mail in ballots there was not a fault proof way of knowing if everything was 100% unquestionably correctly done. A national federal election commission not belonging to any party and unrelated to state or federal authority can ensure an election is free and fair better than the way it is organized in the U.S. Use of electronic machines for over 1 billion voters also ensures consistent way of doing it in India compared to the haphazard nature of the American process of vote ballots and separate counting in each state. This is the second election in which both parties differed on the election and disputed the result. The earlier one was Bush vs. Gore when Mr. Clinton was outgoing president following 2 terms in office. Yet surprisingly there are no calls for setting up a structure like that in India that would organize the vote collection under the authority of a national election commission and the use of modern technology consistently across the nation. ...

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With the decline of its hardware business making iPhones Apple is looking at other fields. It is launching cheap online TV subscriptions in streaming wars in competition with Netflix and others. Apple is launching a new TV streaming service Apple TV+ in 100 countries for 4.99 British pounds a month undercutting Netflix's price of 5.99 pounds. The new service will be started November 1, 2019. Disney plans a streaming service for 7 pounds a month starting November 12. This service is alongside iPhone 11 launch and anew iPad, a new iWatch. Buy any new Apple device and you get a 1 year streaming service free.  Sales of iPhones fell 14% in the April to June 2019 quarter to 39 million units. Samsung's business is growing by 4% to 75 million units and Huawei by 16% to 58 million units. Apple sees the need to increases its services business with a target of $50 billion in 2020. Apple sees itself more as a media and cloud services company as it makes this change. In markets such as India Apple's growth is limited by its failure to lower prices on new iPhones. In China it faces strong competition from Huawei. The trade tensions are increasing the strength of Chinese brands in the Chinese market. The market in U.S. and Europe is saturated after years of expansion. New iPhone models are costly and bring peripheral advantages such as more and better cameras and features such as screens that are not breakable- for the iPhone 11- not dimensions that are critical for making a costly purchase. After years of growth tech companies such as Apple, Google, Alibaba, Amazon are reaching a point where incremental growth is not what it used to be and most of the rapid growth behind them. Trade tensions are also limiting the outlook in the Chinese market, and pricing remains a major factor in the Indian market. Western markets are saturated. There are fewer and fewer substantial new ideas from these tech companies. ...

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China's government is taking up stakes in private companies with large debt and needing financing. Private enterprises have less access to cheap bank loans and other types of financing than state owned firms, and are squeezed by China's efforts to reduce pollution and overcapacity. The tariffs war with the U.S. has also hurt the economy and taking stakes in private companies is way to ensure business stability for China. Its an effort to keep employment stable in the private sector that has 60% of the jobs. Zhejiang Great Southeast Company is a plastics packaging company with founder Huang selling his entire 29.5% stake in the company to state owned Zhuji Water Group Co for $168 million. He did this to repay holding company loans for which he pledged two thirds of Zhejiang Company shares. Beijing stepped in to ensure there is no sharp rise in unemployment. In the first 6 months of 2019 Beijing took 47 such stakes, according to Fitch Ratings, with 52 stakes taken for all of 2018.  The purchase of stakes includes state run companies and investment vehicles of local governments. Even this does not reflect the whole effort of China to ensure no sharp increase in unemployment. From October 2018 local authorities and state linked entities put together about $100 billion of "relief funds" very quickly, estimates from TF Securities. These funds are for passive investments, state owned enterprises normally take on a hands-on role in running the companies. Oxford Economics estimate is that China's private sector provides about 60% of all urban jobs in 2017, increasing from 36% in 2010. Researchers say China stepped in in this way after failing to get banks to lend more to the private sector. The tight supervision to reduce risk of supervisory agencies has made it harder for private companies to get loans. Shadow banking and trust loans was an early target, and stock market selloff hurt entrepreneurs who used shares as collateral for loans. ...

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Christina Zander provides an exceptionally good report on what holds women back in work and managing positions in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Even in Norway, Sweden and Denmark, with a more enlightened outlook in gender relations, the number of women who are CEO's for 145 Nordic companies is only 3%. For the U.S. Fortune 500 this is about 5%. Good child care benefits and parental leave laws that promote a fair distribution of child raising responsibilities between men and women are part of the enlightened outlook in Nordic countries. Yet the number of women being promoted to senior positions is limited. Interestingly rules requiring quota for women on Boards of Directors have led to a different situation on Boards- in 2013 41% of the boards at Norway's public companies were women compared to 18% at private limited companies. About 5.8% of general managers at publicly listed companies were women in 2013, 15.1% in private companies. Sandvik's Ms. Einarsson was promoted to a senior position recently. She says the opposite is true, one needs to start not at the top but at the entry level to ensure women are fairly represented. Culture is part of the problem as even in companies with equal male and female employees, the managers are mostly men. Men are seen as more eager to take responsibilities and risks, and are more integrated into networks. Even childcare and paid parental leave can be deceptive. One researcher shows that Swedish women still take the major part of responsibility for children, with 75% of the 480 available days. Women managers and researchers point to the difficulties women face with a full time career or working over 60 hours a week in a management position, and combining this with picking up children from daycare. Sofia Falk is the founder of Wiminvest, which helps companies invest in geting talented women. Her suggestions are that companies offer other incentives instead of more money- an assistant, private child care, grocery shopping, shared management positions, technical solutions to be able to work at home. The CEO of Sandvik, Olof Faxander, is persistent in changing company attitudes- he has raised the proportion of women in management positions to 21% from 9% in 3 years, eventually hoping to reach 33%....

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Russia stated at a meeting of OPEC oil producers that it would not accept cuts in oil production to stabilize the oil market. The coronavirus effects on the world economy have resulted in a sharp decline in demand for oil. This lack of an agreement among oil producers is leading to a steep drop of 30% in oil prices on March 9, 2020. The Russian position in talks was that it was too early for deep cuts considering that the  true impact of the coronavirus on the world economy was unknown, and that the loss of 1 million bbd from Libya had already reduced production. Experts say the Russians wanted to stabilize oil prices around $50 a barrel and the Saudis a bit higher. Under the OPEC agreement Russia would have to reduce its production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbd), in addition to 2.1 million bbd from previous cuts that would be extended to March, which it found unacceptable. The impact of the double whammy of continued increase in coronavirus cases around the world and the drop in oil prices as a reflection of business confidence was also felt in world stock markets.  Russia's budget is less sensitive to oil prices than the Saudis. The Saudis need somewhere near $80 per barrel to breakeven. Analysts say Russia does not want to lose market share to American shale oil companies which do not have output cuts and benefit from lower oil prices. Shale oil companies in the U.S. are struggling in the present situation of low prices as many of them need $65 a barrel in price to breakeven. About 208 shale oil companies in the U.S. made bankruptcy filings since 2015.  The oil importing countries with increasing oil imports such as India will benefit from the drop in oil prices. Japan and other oil importing countries in Europe, Africa and Asia will also benefit as Russia and the Saudis go all out to increase production. ...