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Simon Nixon of the Econmist on the report's findings for the future of the world economy. He points to the heavy debt overhang for individuals and banks that will take years to overcome resulting in entrenched unemployment and sluggish growth, somewhat reminiscent of Japan's years of stagnation after its bubble. The entrenched unemployment he argues will permanently lower the economic potential of developed countries of US and Europe. Public debt will rise so that private debt can fall. Bank lending that is cautious will only slow any recovery for a long time. And the grim facts he presents are that about 25 million jobs will be lost in the 30 rich countries of the OECD before all this is over during the coming decade, and several million jobs probably will never come back. Auto manufacturing and manufacturing in general is an example where some jobs lost may never be regained. There is no room for complacency here.

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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...

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Spain's borrowing costs increase reaching a high of 7.180% on yields for 10 year Spanish government bonds. There is considerable uncertainty about the bad loans in Spain's banking system and fears that the bad loans could be much larger than previously expected. Consultants hired by the Spanish government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy are expected to report on their findings this week about the extent of bad loans.

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Spain delays setting up a financing mechanism for aiding regions short of funds by extending existing credits till Spain's high bond yields of 7% decline.

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According to a report from the Southern Education Foundation about 51% of the students from pre-Kindergarden to 12th grade in the U.S. were eligible for the federal program of free and reduced price lunches, using an analysis of 2013 federal data. With the highest proportion of students in poverty concentrated in states in the southern and western U.S.. States all across the south, including Texas, show high concentrations approaching 60-70%, and states in the west such as California show about 50-60%. Midwestern states such as Illinois and Michigan show rates over 50%. The implications of this data are that these children from poor and sometimes chaotic backgrounds trail other children in educational development, are less likely to have educationally enriching activity, and more susceptible to dropping out or never attending college. Kent McGuire, president of the Southern Education Foundation says the map showing this is striking. He points to the disinclination to invest in young people today, compared to the focus on leadership in areas of creating opportunity and upward mobility in the decades of the 50's through the 80's. Michael Rebell of Teachers College at Columbia University, says reaching this point where a majority of public school children are from poor backgrounds has happened sooner, and the trend has accelerated over time. ...

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A crisis situation exists in state revenue and spending needs. According to a Census Bureau report overall state revenue in the US dropped 30.8%, to $1.1 trillion, between fiscal 2008 and 2009. The gap between the spending needed to provide services in the recession and revenues is very large. States fiscal problems along with housing losses, will be the two forces acting as a drag to the US recovery in 2011-2012. State payrolls will be cut back and contracts to private companies reduced to cut spending. Declining federal help in 2011-2012, with the new focus on reducing the federal deficit, will worsen the situation. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, even with large federal help 46 states had to raise taxes and make cuts to close a combined gap of $130 billion in their current budgets. And next year 40 states already have projected gaps totaling $113 billion. Even as revenues drop, the Census Bureau report says the state government expenditures went up by 3% to provide essential services, safety net programs and education. Illinois has a budget deficit of 45 percent of its overall budget, according to the Pew Center on the States. In California it is equal to 13% of te state's total budget, and in Arizona it is 15%. For 2009 tax collections fell by 8.5%, and were partially offset by a 12.9% increase in federal help, which was a total of $477.7 billion, according to te Census Bureau report....

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Talks between the parent company Geely and its Volvo unit in Sweden for technology sharing, including developing a car specially for the Chinese market. Volvo's technology would help Geely design a car to better compete in the Chinese market.

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Darren Woods of Exxon gives the view of many in business in the U.S. when he says of the Paris climate change accords of 2015- "We need a framework like that to address the threat of climate change." GE's CEO Immelt says a decision to leave the Paris accords "is not going to change one thing we do for energy efficiency, and I think all business is going to feel the same way." Most utilities including AEP see the political changes in government as coming and going, making it important to base their long term strategies on the economics and the general trends worldwide. Only support for the move to leave is coming from some coal companies and the steel industry, a small fraction of the overall industry in the U.S. Not mentioned here is the moves worldwide, by China motivated by health and pollution concerns to shift away from coal after disastrous pollution effects seen in China, and the decades old effort in Germany that has made the country self sufficient in renewable energy through use of solar and wind energy. India has set aggressive targets for renewables energy and is likely to join this long term trend as the economics shift in favor of wind and solar, especially when the health costs are counted in.   ...

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Mark Sanford, Republican Governor of South Carolina, cites Donald Trump in May 2014 on releasing tax returns. At the time Trump is quoted as saying: "If I run for office, I will release my tax returns, absolutely, I would love that." Sanford says he released his tax returns, and Mike Spence, the Republican vice presidential candidate has released his tax returns, and calls on Trump to release his returns as promised. Hillary Clinton has released her tax returns, which show she paid 34% of income in taxes. Sanford says it is important information both for transparency in the political process and in giving voters an opportunity to evaluate those who want to govern the country. He also says that this is the reason a banker asks for tax returns before making a loan, that talking is'nt enough tax returns tell the real story,  and the reason why this is a precedent too important to be broken in 2016. This has become increasingly important in this election year with the public expecting corporations and wealthy individuals to pay their fair share of taxes, so that programs to aid workers left behind during the recession, provide job retraining, finance the infrastructure that will create new jobs, provide access to college for working class and poor, require adequate government revenues. ...

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The shift of voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in the South such as Georgia and South Carolina, and the Deep South such as Mississippi and Alabama, started in the sixties with the civil rights movement. Reagan tapped into it by making his first post convention trip to Alabama, where George Wallace had already worked up white southern voters on segregation in the way Trump is doing today on immigration. Strom Thurmond was one of the high profile southerners shifting from Dixiecrat Democrat to Republican in South Carolina. After Thurmond in the fifties the Republican formula was to mix cultural issues with economic conservatism, with Nixon, then Reagan, and then Bush. Reagan added religious conservatives to the cause. Now says Emory University Prof. Joseph Crespino, this is changing as the more educated college educated white collar professionals that Goldwater once appealed to shifting in 2016 to the Democratic Party in places like Georgia and South Carolina. This is a result of the rhetoric of Trump resembling that of George Wallace and Thurmond in the Deep South. With demographic changes there is also new infusion of people from the North to the South in major urban areas. The result in 2016 is that the South no longer appears the way it once was. ...

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The tech boom bust since 2000 that has hurt America and Europe and which also laid the foundations for the loss of manufacturing and technology to China, ceding American leadership and critical advantage, is shown here in the WSJ. The role of the finance sector  is explained here. That has added one more factor to the factor of endless wars in the Middle East, where American and European investment in healthcare, education and new infrastructure was somehow diverted away, and much of America's and Europe's resources wasted- or not turned to the benefit of the people of America or Europe.  One financial firm that rode the tech boom to the hilt finds itself with unacceptable losses except in a severe recession. Tiger Global Management was using tens of billions of dollars from pensions, endowments and rich clients riding on some of Silicon Valley's hottest stocks.  With the plunge in tech stock values including startups in which Tiger pushed into aggressively now facing large losses after hyper valuations, Tiger's hedge fund which managed $23 billion at the end of 2021 was down 52% in 2022. Another of its funds that managed $11 billion has lost 62%. WSJ says this wiped out two thirds of the gains Tiger has made in the tech stocks since its founding. In addition large writedowns are expected on its venture funds valued at $64 billion at the end of 2021, says WSJ.  WSJ says cheap money (money somehow diverted from infrastructure and funding manufacturing in China instead of the US now goes by the misnomer cheap money) reshaped Silicon Valley in the last decade, as pension funds, rich investors and celebrities turned to well connected money managers such as Tiger to put money in tech stocks and startups. This WSJ report says compared to Sequoia Capital and an earlier generation of venture companies Tiger Global is simply not interested in management of companies it invests in, taking a broad brush approach, using Bain Capital for research, and trying to haul in a large load of fish like trawlers at sea hoping for some companies to make big gains. Many pension funds such as Calpers California's public pension fund invest in Tiger with a $400 million investment. WSJ also reports that Tiger Global's venture funds do not reflect the realities of the tech business as venture stocks will reflect the drop over 2022 and 2023, including its ByteDance Chinese tech investment which will need larger writedowns. Tiger has also not hesitated to get into cryptocurrency which has loss of about $1.5 trillion dollars. It is of interest to note that Julian Robertson, hedge fund manager of the 2000 period (when Clinton-Bush were US presidents) who ran Tiger Management provided the impetus for Mr. Coleman, then 25 years old, for the start of Tiger Global. Julian Robertson closed his fund in 2000 during the dot com bust. Coleman hired a Blackstone analyst and started on the next cycle of tech with social media platform Facebook now Meta, followed by China's JD.com as investments in a new China boom were started. The end result is that during a period of Middle East wars under Bush and Obama, and building dependence on Russian oil and gas supplies under Schroeder and Merkel, China was the gainer as the US and EU lost much of its manufacturing and technology to China. During this period US and Europe neglected investment in infrastructure that would benefit the people of America in ease of living and quality of life. Just as money was wasted in wars much of the tech investment was wasted. The companies that added value over time were started long before and relied on sales growth and new products that revolutionized their field such as Apple with smartphones that started well before the nineteen eighties, Amazon with logistics and its own style of management, Microsoft from an even earlier era. Tech monopolies Facebook, Google, and others would not be missed much in terms of real progress for the people of America. The cost is many decades of ceding manufacturing and technology advantage to China by US and the EU led by Germany. China 2030 and the war in Ukraine with China's support have shown how fragile the foundations have been with weak political leadership and a finance sector running backwards in terms of America's and Europe's strengths in new infrastructure, better healthcare, services and education for the people of America and Europe. Leaving it to the Biden administration and a new coalition of Greens and Scholz in Germany to begin the task of rebuilding America and Europe on strong foundations, including the dignity of the workers and families, that makes who we are and what we believe in, and why the free world believes in us. ...