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Home prices are surging in Australia in 2015, with home prices in Sydney up about 39% since June 2012, according to CoreLogic RP Data. As a multiple of annual income home prices in Sydney are at 9.8, Melbourne 8.7, and Wollongong near Sydney 7.5, compared to 6.1 for New York and 8.5 for London, according to a 2015 affordability survey by Demographia. Australia's surging home prices are happening just as the mining boom that powered its economy is winding down and unemployment is up to 6.1%. Interest rates are down to 2.25%, and low interest rates with speculative purchases are likely to fuel the market up further, say experts. About 40% of home loans approved in Feb. 2015 were to investors, increasing from 31% in 2009, according to official data. According to Australia's Reserve Bank the wealthiest 40% of the population have 75% of the debt. This surge when the economy is feeling the effects of the slowdown in China, and the rest of the world is cutting down on debt, puts Australia in uncertain territory....

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As appliance maker Fagor goes into bankruptcy with $1.16 billion in debt during Spain's long downturn, 1800 workers lose their jobs. Unemployment in the Basque town of Mondragon in northern Spain where Fagor is located, is up from 15% to 22%. Fagor was founded in 1955 and sold refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. Sales were 14 billion euros in 2012. An injection of 300 million euros from other members of the Mondragon co-op network and 80 million euros from workers failed to prevent the factories from closing. Decisions for international expansion with the acquisition of a French appliance maker created problems for Fagor because of the long economic downturn in the home base. Failure to move jobs to emerging markets with lower costs hurt Fagor, as Whirlpool and Electrolux moved jobs to China and other developing countries. Fagor's unique co-op structure of worker ownership made it difficult to move jobs outside Spain and France, and issuing new shares for capital is not possible under the co-op structure. ...

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This NYT editorial describes U.S. president Obama's West Point speech as lacking substance and overhyped. Issues of how to tackle relations with a more assertive China and Russia were left unaddressed, and the increase in tensions in Asia and in Europe were left out. Much of the speech used platitudes without spelling out what the U.S. would do, such as saying that there was no question that the U.S. would lead, it was about how it would lead. Questions raised about Obama's handling of foreign affairs will not be addressed by this speech, says NYT. The WSJ editorial on May 29, 2014, expressed a similiar opinion, suggesting that many are asking the same questions about whether there is a policy or whether it is being framed by Mr. Obama's personal preferences to stay out of most foreign issues and focus on domestic affairs, even though this means neglect of issues in which the lack of U.S. leadership will have serious implications for the future. Was the address an attempt to gloss over these obvious deficiencies with Mr. Obama's rhetorical skills?...

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Justin Leverenz of the Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund has seen the fund grow in five years from $3.9 billion to $41 billion in 2014. With the risk posed to developing markets economies from volatile capital inflows the fund is now closed to new investors. Often the mutual funds would buy and sell the same companies creating volatile inflows, and worse with sudden outflows as India experienced with slowing growth. Returns were 27% over 3 years 2010-2013, but have slowed to 2% to date in 2014 with the emerging markets crisis in early 2014. Leverenz is a quiet person and stays away from the limelight. He works solo without a team of analysts and tries to get a first hand feel for the companies he invests in by visiting and talking to the people at the companies. He travels for 6 months of the year, and has developed early relationships with fast growing Chinese internet companies Baidu and Tencent. He sees strong growth in India under the Modi administration, in China, and in Turkey....

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VW sales including Audi were up 34% in 2012. BMW sales were up 14%, and Daimler sales were up 15%. The growth rates for the German automakers surpassed growth in China. By manufacturing in the U.S. German automakers are better able to compete with the Detroit and Japanese carmakers in pricing. A third of BMW vehicles and a fourth of VW and Mercedes vehicles are now made in the U.S., according to LMC Automotive. VW has invested about $4 billion in the U.S. since 2008, including investment at a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The German carmakers are now going for mass appeal with the VW Passat. Lower priced Mercedes models now sell for under $30,000. German exports to the U.S. increased by 24% in October 2012, compared to 18% for the eurozone overall. About 40% of German exports to the U.S are autos. Eurozone exports to the U.S. were up 18% in Oct 2012, and Britain's exports increased by 11%. British exports in Oct 2012 of 4 billion euros were second only to Germany at 8 billion euros....

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A partnership is formed between Dr. Reddy's and Glaxo focussed on emerging markets, excluding India. The products will be manufactured by Dr Reddy's and licensed and supplied by Glaxo in countries in Africa, the Middle East , Asia-Pacific and Latin America. In certain markets they will be co-marketed by the two companies. The deal gives Glaxo exclusive use of over 100 branded pharmaceuticals in areas like cardiovascular, diabetes, oncology, gastroenterology and pain management. Under the terms of the agreement the revenue results will be reported by Glaxo and shared between the two companies. This is part of Andrew Witty's strategy to take the expansion in emerging markets -especially in association with India- to a new level. Witty recently took over as CEO of Glaxo and is one of the younger drug executives at 43. Last month Glaxo acquired a 16% stake in South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare's Holdings Ltd. in a deal that expanded an existing partnership. Glaxo agreed in June 2009 to a deal with Shenzen Neptunus Interlong Bio-Technique Co. to make influenza vaccines for China....

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Honda Motor Company will have one bright spot as sales of motor bikes increase from 13.9 million to 14.9 million for 2009. Honda two wheelers sell briskly in Asia and South America, where they are considered low-price necessities. On the other hand Honda's auto sales will drop by 400,000 to 3.5 million for the fiscal year ending in March 2009. Honda will post a profit of $860 million or 80 million yen for this fiscal year, down 87%, by contrast Toyota will post a loss of 350 billion yen, and Nissan a loss of 265 billion yen. Honda is seeing huge growth in markets like Indonesia where $50 can be a down payment on a motorcycle., Honda sold 2.8 million motorbikes there up 34%.. Now sales are predicted by Honda Motor to drop to somewhere between 2.1 and 2.5 million bikes. Honda markets heavily to people under 25 in Indonesia, who make up half the population of 240 million people. Honda is also working on lowering costs of manufacturing by focussing on production in India, China, Thailand and Vietnam. ...

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Philippe Varin faces some tough decisions when he takes over Peugeot-Citroen. Unlike the turnaroungd he achieved at Corus steel group where the booming demand from China for steel helped, this time the auto market in Europe is declining by about 30%. He has to navigate betwen the interests of the Peugeot family which has 45% of the voting rights, employees who are affected by the cost cutting, the French government which has required no closing of factories for as long as the company receives governement aid. Peugeot-Citroen received a low interest loan of 3 billion euros from the French government. Questions he will have to address, as do all auto manufacturers in the USA and Europe relate to overcapacity as demand declines. And for Peugeot this has to be tackled without factory closures. And the other major issue facing auto manufacturers worldwide is how much to focus on the fuel efficient small car segment. Peugeot has key strengths in this segment and Varin may decide on refocussing on this segment....

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The clout of China's environmental agency the State Environment Protection Administration has grown significnatly in the past 12 months. SEPA rejected 110 projects in 2006 for environmental damage, and in 2007 it rejected 187 or about $91 billion worth of projects for environmental damage. China requires environemntal asses ment for sttell mills, power plants and other projects as part of the approval process. So even as criticism of the Chinese government has built up for environmental damage SEPA is getting new clout and the government is rethinking how all these projects can some day come back to haunt the administration for environmental impact if something isnt done very quickly to cancel all projects that dont meet environmental quality standards. This is something to keep watching first because it ensures longterm sustainable economic progress and second it reduces the cost of cleaning up which would reduce economic growth in the future, third because the quality of air and water lead to really sustainable economic development in the future. This is a Watch Link for sustainable economic development. ...

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On December 29th 2007 just before the new year 2008 the year of the Beijing Olympics a predicition that sooner or later, sometime soon maybe after the Olympics the stock market in China which is running at some 65-75 time earnings in Shanghai and Shenzen is going to blow up. Its a facade of an orderly equity market which it isn't. The state control many of the stocks and how the stock market operates, good information on companies is scarce, some of the earnings and the investments of companies are in the stock market itself, and not many shares actually change hands as government held companies or other companies have large holdings. Without good accounting who knows if the earnings are not inflated. There are very few alternative investments as savings accounts yield less than inflation and Chinese laws do not permit investing abroad so all this money is flooding the stock markets and it keeps going up so there isn't the situation where stocks go up and down as in a normal market.

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Andrew Hall of trading firm Phibro, which traces its roots to the Phipps Brothers a German scrapmetal and raw materials dealer from 1900, and is now a part of Citigroup. He started making big bets after 2004 that futures in oil prices would instead of the then prevailing 20% discount to current prices be priced higher than current prices because of the rising demand from China and India and shortage of supplies. Once he had locked in on this idea and had researched the facts he got the agreement of the head of Ciigroups trading group to place large bets such as buying a lot of oil futures at the prevailing prices. As oil prices shot up this paid off and Phibro kept 20-30%of the profits. Hall made about $250 million dollars and put $100 million into his art collection of new artists. At a time when speculative buying by investors has pushed up oil prices this is a story of one person who made big bets and thrived.

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The International Energy Agency sees a shortfall of 12.5 million barrels a day when it compares the needed 37.5 million barrels a day by 2015 with the planned supply increases showing 25 million barrels a day. A lot depends on the assumptions and what the 37.5 million barrels a day is based on. Does it account for a slowdown in the world economy and a drive for fuel efficiency and conservation habits by 2015? How much of this is reflected in the numbers? And on the planned increases of 25 million barrels a day- does it account for increases that may be planned in 2009 and 2010 in response to prices above $150 a barrrel which is expected? The IEA has a team of 25 analysts working on the forecasts but it gets no cooperation from Saudi Arabia about its individual fields production, and Venezuela, Iran and China also keep their information a secret. This makes supply forecasting a difficult business. IEA uses IHS Inc a data provider, USA Geologic Survey, oil and service companies information and national petroleum councilds information....

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Turkey's former minister of economic affairs and treasury on the need for IMF help too all developing countries that need help and have followed reasonably good economic policies, without simply labeling policies as good or bad in an oversimplified way. Decisions should he says reflect the widespread need for fiscal stimulus in te face of collapsing demand for exports and declining private expenditures. And here also IMF resources are close to $200 billion and the needs of developing countries are estimated between $500 billion and $800 billion. China and the Gulf states need to step in and steps taken quickly to associate them in a more substanital way till improvements are made in IMF governance.He is looking for help in weeks not months. Dervis points to the need for fairness in eligibility criteria for help with help not limited to countries with political clout or systemic importance, wheras other countries have to engage in protracted negotiations with intrusive conditions such as those which raise interest rates in the face of collapsing demand as in the past. ...

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Sales of small cars have dropped significantly, and sales of Cherry Automobile Company China's largest domestic carmaker dropped 40% in September 2008 over a year earlier and 6% in October 2008. Nationally car sales increased 11% in October 2008 over the previous year after declines of 6% in August and 2% in September. China levies a tax of roughly 8.6% on a car's taxable price which is calculated based on the car's retail price and the size of the engine, with larger engines taxed more. What the carmakers like Cherry want is for the government to lower this sales tax on small cars and cars with environmentally friendly technology. Another step is for the government to lower state set fuel prices as prices of world crude go down to below $50 a barrel and encourage more fuel efficient cars with a fuel tax. Chinese public policy as stated by the government, and Chen Bin, Director of the Industry division of the National Development and Reform Commission is to boost domestic demand.

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BMW's CEO Reithofer says in a conference call that the company will redirect cars from the USA to China and Russia and other countries because of the currency exchange rates and unfavorable market conditions in the US. These market conditions caused a236 million euros charge to compensate for the falling value of second hand vehicles and potential payment defaults on loans for leased vehicles in the USA. At Daimler you see a 491 million euro fall in the value of Daimler's remaining 19.9% stake in Chrysler LLC showing up in 1st quarter results but also similiar to BMW one sees a 151 million euro writedown to cover the falling value of cars that were leased to customers. This is from earnings announcements by Daimler and BMW.

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Uncertainty about inflation in China, is it a longer term situation or is it temporary na d will moderate, and is it mainly for food or will it spread to other items besides food. And how long can the government subsidize the cost of fuel and let the power and oil producers suffer losses by restricitng passthrough of increased costs for Petrochina and Sinopec. If inflation continues to be a problem at about 8% per year then it would affect consumption and possibly tightening measures by the central bank that would slow down growth, and bring some moderation to the demand side of the equation in oil prices which some estimates put as high as $200 citing increased Chinese and other demand.

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This Journal editorial looks at the reason why Trusts and shadow banking became systemic risks, with trust products growing 7- fold in 2007-2012. It says money tends to find its way where its needed, and without junk bonds as in the U.S. the additional capital needs were being met by Trusts. The lid on interest rates meant individuals turned to the Trusts for higher rates. And the regulators failed to control the systemic risks posed by Trusts with their low transparency and regulatory control.

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The Baltic Exchange in London which is the main provider of shipping rate information from around the world. It also controls the process of daily freight rate fixing. Every day before 1 pm the exchange polls about 57 shipbrokers from 15 countries including Norway, France, Japan and Australia, on the prices for more than 50 shipping routes and about 8 types of ships. It started in 1744 as the Virginia and Baltic coffeehouse where shipowners met merchants to negotiate prices to transport goods from the Americas to Europe. Now the huge demand to transport commodities like iron ore and coal to the developing world especially China is a big part of the huge increase in importance of shipping.

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China's ginni coefficient at 0.5, has changed from 0.3 several decades ago, according to Li Shi at Beijing Normal University. A level above 0.4 is considered socially destabilizing. 150 million migrant workers from rural areas are denied access to benefits such as health care, education and pensions which are provided to urban residents. Migrant incomes are also affected by rising food prices. Estimates of per capita income are $935 a year for rural areas, up 13% in 2010, and $2,965 in urban areas, up 10 % in 2010. An economist at the National Economic Research Institute in Beijing says the income gap is understated because the incomes of families in the higher end are understated.