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UK Labor party leader is ahead by 20 percentage points over the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak. He meets France's Macron to discuss future British relations with EU and France. He had a similar meeting with Mr. Scholz before the election in which Social Democrats and the Greens became the leading parties in the government.

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India is storing as much oil as it can at today's low oil prices of about $20-$30 per barrel in May 2020. With India asking the U.S. to store oil from U.S. shale producers at its strategic petroleum reserve storage facilities in the U.S. Already its existing storage facilities of 5.3 million tonnes (39 million barrels) are full, and the storage capacity will be more than doubled with an additional 6.5 million tonnes (48 million barrels) to be built quickly. About 8.5 million tonnes (62 million barrrels)  are in ships on oceans around the world. Demand is only 20% during the lockdown but is expected to reach levels of 2019 by June 2020. Only about 20% of oil consumption comes from existing storage.   That Indian oil capacity is 39 million barrels of storage shows how little was done over succeeding administrations without national aspirations for a growing country with hundreds of million of young people, when the oil storage capacity today of 39 million barrels compares with over 500 million barrels for Japan and for China. A huge Indian government aid package of $280 billion for the economy can be offset by gains in other areas such as low oil price oil storage, and gains in supply chain manufacturing, increasing the size of the domestic market for local manufacturers with incentives and loans, and new rules for stressing local manufacturing for a self-reliant economy. ...

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Poor administration and failure in public services, turning over public services to private operators as the system nears collapse is the situation presented here of Johannesburg in 2025. It is hosting the G-20 Summit this year in South Africa. It is also the major commercial capital of South Africa. There is much that could be learned from good administration from other countries in Asia.

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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Regional public universities, universities with state in their name, such as California State University, Northridge, or Michigan State University, Lansing, are where 60% of Americans come from, Ivies and upper income colleges such as Oberlin or Haverford, Kalamzoo make up 5%. Paul Gastris, Editor in chief of Washington Monthly, points to an important segment of the American population that has been ignored and without the needed funding in the last 3 Reagan decades. College educated from regional public universities such as California or Michigan or Pennsylvania state colleges/universities system are a huge section of the American population comprising 62%. 37% of Americans over 25 years have a college degree, 10% have an associates college degree, and 10% have some college education but no degree, 5% vocational certificate, all adding up to 62%. This is even as the Reagan period ends three decades of underfunding of state college universities  such as the California system setup by a visionary Governor Pat Brown that lifted up economic opportunity in the whole state in 1960. ...

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DJT 50% tariff on Brazil called Moraes tariff after Brazil Supreme Court  judge Moraes who put restrictions on social media to clear hate speech on the internet. DJT says the tariff is intended to stop the trial of former president Bolsanaro who lost the election to Lula da Silva a trade unionist, in an extremely close runoff election 50.9% to 49.1% margin of 1.8 percentage points. DJT's margin over Kamala Harris in 2024 was 49.9% to 48.4%-margin of 1.5 percentage points. DJT compares Democratic prosecutors who prosecuted him in the US after his election loss to prosecutors in Brazil who are prosecuting Bolsonaro.

Brazil imports about $50 billion from the states and exports $42 billion with a trade deficit of about $8 billion with the US.

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Institute of Fiscal Studies, IFS, shows where the money is going in Labour's first Budget. See graphs of the household income over the 75 years under Conservative and Labour governments, which shows slower growth in household income over the next 5 years. Healthcsare and Education are growing at 4%. The growth of 6-10% is for local government spending, housing, communities and local government, work and pensions, Justice, HM Revenue. The slow rise in household incomes to 2030 is the result of trickle down economics which is sold vigorously by some groups as economic orthodoxy including the largest corporations paying little in taxes. This is true also of the US. FDR called it Tory policies and policies that say trickle down economics works when it doesn't. FDR said at DNC in 1932- "And we thought the Tories left in 1776." Today this is why UK household incomes show slight growth to 2030, and even this Labour Government is hesitant to boldly question this economic orthodoxy.  For Britain the debacle of Brexit turning some legitimate questions of immigration into isolation from economies of mainland Europe adds to the problem.     ...

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The news and information including video available on the internet have eroded dependence on public broadcasting in the US for communities across the US. The tendency of public broadcasting to be filled with people of views that did not represent a crosssection of America further eroded the credibility as views changed over time across different parts of America. By 2025 public broadcasting appeared as a leftover from the 60's and Congress defunded it in July 2025. 

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A poll released by Datafolha on June 29, 2013, shows a sharp drop in popularity of Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff from 57% to 30%. In northeastern Brazil, an area where the ruling Workers Party enjoyed strong support, Rousseff's popularity fell sharply from 64% to 40%. Over 80% of respondents in the poll expressed support for the street protests in Brazilian cities over poor infrastructure, transportation and public services, and overspending on soccer stadiums at the expense of basic services. A protest over bus fare increases set off the street protests. Rousseff's response to the protests have come under criticism- the president offered to conduct a referendum for improving the political system, and channel oil royalties to education.

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Coronavirus has given time for developing world to prepare as it hit Europe first, but now that it has hit Brazil, Mexico, India, South Africa, it is following a pattern that keeps it there for months with no end in sight. This is straining hospital and doctor resources to the limit and leaving doctors stressed and exhausted. This report looks at the nonstop flow at one of Mexico City's largest hospitals Salvador Zubiran.

The informal economy in these countries makes it harder to lockdown completely or for a long period. Now that the economy is reopened the larger population and congestion and the inability to have further lockdowns or tightened restrictions for economic reasons makes for the flow of new coronavirus patients over many months. Some restrictions have been reintroduced in India and the higher recovery rate of close to 70% has offered some glimmer of hope, yet more needs to happen to win this fight.

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As climate changes the World Bank reports that 75% of India's urban populations, about 380 million people, work in jobs exposed to extreme heat, life threatening heat.This is the informal workforce that generates 50% of GDP, that works as street vendors, construction or factory workers, house help, auto rickshaw drivers, street cleaners, delivery people and guards. More people will be added- over 400 million by 2050 as India urbanizes further. The Guardian looks at the situation in Bengaluru that in year 2000 was still cool and leafy except for summer that was for for a few months March to May with temperatures peaking at 34 degrees centigrade. Now the summer heat happens earlier 34 degrees C. by February and 38 degrees C. by May. Then there is the heat island effect as the city  built from asphalt cement and metal heats up during the day and heats the atmosphere at night.

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Over 60% of GM revenues in North America come from larger vehicles and SUV's. This is the situation as oil prices are rising and change is sweeping across the Middle East. Another problem is overcapacity in the auto industry. The overinvestment is highlighted by the recent decision of Geely to invest $10 billion in Volvo to double production to 800,000 units over 5 years. The car industry can produce 94 million cars the Economist magazine estimates, and demand worldwide is only 64 million. One estimate shows production capacity could reach 40 million in China by 2015!

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Failure by EU leaders to take early and decisive action to reduce Greece's debt to sustainable levels in 2009. This was when the IMF report by Dutchman Bob Traa blew the cover off the Greek coverup of deteriorated finances. Policy missteps included ECB president Trichet and other EU leaders pushing austerity measures and not taking needed tough action on reducing the debt. By November 2011 a 50% reduction in debt with bondholders taking the losses is not enough to correct the situation. Greece's debt is discounted by 70% by Nov 2011. Analysts estimate an 85% reduction in Greek debt being necessary for Greece to pull through without a default.

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Jeannie Rice runs Marathons at 77 years and has amazing physiology. Aerobic fitness and endurance capacity of a 25 year old. Her inspiration is Joan Benoit Samuelson who won gold at the inaugural Olympic women's marathon in 1984. Joan Benoit who is 67 says now it is she who is inspired by Rice. When exercise is done at a good level over the adult lifespan it results in cardiovascular and physical endurance and capacity to perform at a high level.  Jeannie Benoit's diet- avoid sweets and fried foods and eat lots of salads, fresh vegetables, rice, fish and nuts., some cheese. Her passion: loves running and wants to inspire young people. She also goes out socially to have fun and relax. Her personal goal - to inspire older runners. She says- “I feel as young as when I was 50, and I’d like to be doing this well into my 80s. That’s my personal goal." ...

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After seeing the ups and downs of American attitudes over 50 years from overconfidence to despair Krugman reminds Americans that nobody is best at everything and it is always a good idea to learn from what other countries do.

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The task of getting 20 million tons of foodgrains in Ukrainian silos out of Ukraine is being taken up by the European Union. Ms. Leyen of the EU has emphasized the importance of this mission for poor countries. About 50 countries depend on Ukraine and Russia for over 30% of imports of foodgrains says the WSJ. One way supported in this WSJ Editorial Board opinion is to use naval ships to escort ships carrying grain out of Black Sea ports. This requires Turkey's support and has to be done as a humanitarian move with ships from many countries. Rail would be an option yet Ukraine and the rest of Europe use different railway infrastructure. Steps need to be taken to do this quickly to overcome the rail issues and also use motor transport. The port of Odessa has been mined by Ukraine to prevent a Russian naval assault showing that there are obstacles along the way to be met by land or by sea. Starting now would be the best way to approach this. Both the Eu and the US should work together on this. The baby food crisis in the US was tackled by special flights from Germany. This shows that many options can be combined and problems tackled to get food grains out. What seems insurmountable can be tackled with action taken early, learning along the way. The Berlin Airlift did this in 1947 with another Soviet blockade. This would also lift spirits throughout the world. ...

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A Phase 1 trial of over a thousand volunteers shows the Oxford vaccine works well with minimum side effects that can be handled with acetaminophen. Phase 2 trial is underway with volunteers in UK, Brazil and South Africa. Participants given the vaccine had significant increase in antibodies to neutralize the disease, and T cells for long term protection. About 70% reported fatigue or headaches which can be handled with acetaminophen. After the Ebola crisis of 2014 in West Africa the British government invested 120 million pounds to form a group to develop vaccines for top 10 likely threats dubbed "Disease X." On this list was the coronavirus. Scientists at the Jenner Institute at Oxford formed a team as part of this effort. Sarah Gilbert and Adrian Hill led the scientists at Jenner and pioneered research for  a new way to do this- to first replace a part of the virus with a component of the new virus. Then to remove the part of the virus that allows it to replicate in humans. This method is called recombinant adenovirus vector. The Oxford scientists used existing technology in new ways to increase the chances of getting a good vaccine early.  The first vaccine could be developed and tested for mass production by September. A 30,000 participant trial begins in U.S. in August. About 1 billion doses could be manufactured by end of 2020. India's Serum Institute has the manufacturing facilities to do this near Pune, India.  ...

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Cost of driving depends on where you live in the US- California (taxes and climate change fee), and mountain states (no inland supplies in West), Illinois taxes are much higher compared to the South and South East (close to refineries no taxes). Specific formulations add extra on the Eastern seaboard states  from New Hampshire to Virginia, and in the West California have requirements to reduce smog and pollution. At one time in the 1980's in Pasadena the smog would be so bad you could not see the green color on the leaves clearly. For most of the US gas prices on April 22, 2026 are around $3.62 or lower compared to $3.92 on average in March for the whole US and $5.83 in California, $5.00 in Oregon, $5.38 in Washington. Texas, Alabama, North and South Carolina at around $3.62 and Florida at $4.00. In Virginia to Maine in the North East it is around $4.00. A look at the map shows that talk of $5.00 gasoline hurting the Republicans in the midterms for Congress is incorrect because the Democrats are likely to hold on to California, Washington Oregon, their base with gas at close to $6.00 the very opposite of what they are saying. Much of it because of state policies against oil refining and climate change taxes, formulations of gasoline that cost more to address smog. The head of the distribution channel for gasoline in the US, Scott Berhang, head of fuel wholesalers marketing group Sigma says- “At some point, [the war] could translate into supply shortages. That could happen. But we’re not really there yet. I talk to my members all over the U.S. They’re not seeing any supply issues. There’s no problem getting fuel. Everything is normal.” State taxes can be as low as 9 cents in Alaska and 71 cents in California, 66 cents in Illinois. The price of gas in swing states Arizona $4.59, Pennsylvania $4.11, Michigan $3.78, Wisconsin $3.69, North Carolina $3.75, Georgia $3.57. If we use $3.61 price of Texas and most of South and close to this in all but mountain states and western states then we are slightly above the same price gasoline was sold at the pump in 2011-2014 of $3.51 per gallon. This is a significant fact considering the media talks about gasoline prices in the US as a significant cost of living issue. Which means saying Iran War is "crippling" US consumers at the pump is farfetched and totally incorrect.  ...

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Pakistan has always suffered from tax collection that is some of the poorest in the world. This leaves little money for badly needed infrastructure and roads. At a time when countries such as Indonesia and India are rapidly building roads and infrastructure, Pakistan depends on projects and financing almost entirely from China.  This means dependence on foreign debt financing such as that of the $2 billion Orange Line, Pakistan's first Metro line in Lahore. This is one of the first projects one of $16 billion in projects started from a planned $62 billion under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that taking on so much debt leaves Pakistan dependent on Chinese financing, with increased debt payments leading to a debt crisis. External debt will double to over $100 billion from a little over $50 billion in 2013, according to the IMF, reaching 30% of GDP. External financing needs have doubled from 4% of GDP or about $10 billion in 2013-2015 period doubling to over $20 billion and 8% of GDP. A steep increase in debt in a space of only 3 years. Pakistan faces problems similar to that faced by other countries including Ceylon, Burma. Pakistan has fallen behind on debt payments for electricity projects, because of problems getting Pakistanis to pay electric bills. Other problems are that the projects use Chinese workers and Chinese contractors so that they do not generate jobs the way projects would normally generate domestic jobs and growth including pushing domestic firms up the experience and knowledge curve in construction and technology. The opaqueness of the deals lead to a lack of required transparency. The projects also lack the almost zero interest financing from Japan of projects such as the first bullet train in India on Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor because of the lack of negotiating leverage and other problems.  By early fall 2018 Pakistan is expected to seek IMF financing, which would lead to conditions set by the IMF on how much it can borrow and spend under the Belt and Road Initiative, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC. This means effectively that the Wst will bail out a country after investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. ...

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The Gallois Report commissioned by the new government in France to restore France's manufacturing competitiveness. Louis Gallois is the former head of aerospace firm EADS. It calls for a 30 billion euro cut in payroll taxes to help French companies compete in global markets. Gallois proposes 22 main measures to "stop the slide and support the economy." He called this a "competitiveness shock." Gallois points to France's 70 billion euro trade deficit in contrast to booming German exports. The cost to the economy was 2 million French jobs over 3 decades, says the report. Unemployment today is around 10%. Measures suggested include the payroll tax cuts of 1.5% of GDP for salaries upto 4900 euros a month, and employee representatives to sit on board of directors of French companies similiar to Germany.

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As Toyota Kirloskar moves to increase capacity at its plant in Bidadi, Bangalore, to 5000 units of the new compact car, localisation for components becomes abig part of the strategy. The goal is to achieve 90% localization by 2011 from 65% today, as parts imported from Japan cost more with the over 30% appreciation in the yen-rupee exchange rate. The Innova has 65% localization of components, and the Corolla has 45% which will be moved up to 75% and 50% respectively by 2010. The dealer network will be expanded from 82 to 150 by 2010-end and Toyota-Kirloskar wants to be in the semi-rural and rural towns. The pricing will be between aSantro top end varian and a Honda city entry variant, priced at Rs 5-7 lakhs.

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Vanguard's Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis, says there is a 40% chance of a recession in the U.S. by 2020, and that the prospects for the stock market have worsened quite a bit. U.S. stocks are expected to return 3.9% down from the earlier prediction of 8% in 2013 over 10 years annualized. In Europe the stocks are expected to return 6.5% down from 8.7% earlier prediction in 2013.

Bonds and cash offer safer alternatives with attractive rates.

Vanguard's 10 year annualized returns for a diversified portfolio of U.S. bonds is up from 1.7% in 2013 to 3.3%, for Treasury bonds 3.0%, and for international bonds up from 1.8% to 2.9%. Money market funds also offer relatively attractive returns as safe haven on 10 year annualized basis of 2.9% up from 1.5%. For the lower risk money market funds are attractive to investors for making adjustments.

 

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Shell plans to cut $15 billion in capital spending over 3 years, and pull back on shale investments, in response to the drop in oil prices below $50 a barrel in 2015. Shell's CEO Van Beurden says the company will continue to focus on capital efficiency and project delivery and make prudent investments. Since taking over Van Beurden has pulled back from big spending, cut costs, and focussed on capital efficiency.

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Another example of aggressive pricing is sweetest batch with prices at $6.99 for 12 strawberries. For years Driscoll's did not market the sweetest strawberries because these berries were not of the abundant variety. Now Driscoll's is charging high prices for these strawberries. Strawberries is the most popular fruit and and it is $9 billion market with 40% growth over last 5 years. 

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The difference between the 21% tax rate down form 35% put in place in 2017 and the proposed tax rate of 28% by Democrats is $1 trillion over 10 years. The corporate tax rate generates only 8% of government revenues and Lael Brainard thinks this is too low for investment that the government needs to make in climate change action, infrastructure, manufacturing, healthcare, childcare, education and other priorities neglected by different administrations over the last three decades, that are vital to rebuilding America.