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Greg Ip of the WSJ cautions about thinking that the GDP growth of 3% is likely to be achieved with the Trump plan for a corporate tax rate of 15%. He says evidence from Britain and Canada- Britain reducing the tax rate from 30% in 2007 to 19% today, and Canada from 28% in 2000 to 21% in 2004- is disappointing. In Britain the increase in GDP averaged about 0.1% a year. Business investment increases with cut in corporate taxes, and the U.S. corporate tax rate is higher than other advanced countries such as Germany, yet GDP growth includes other factors, such as the business cycle, demographics, productivity growth, aging, technology, regulation, says Ip. It is better if the tax cuts are spread broadly over the population, and tax cuts are offset to a greater extent by savings in other areas, and that tax cuts promote productivity boosting investment, to create enough of a surge in growth above 2%.

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This editorial in the DW.com says the proposal to impose a 20% border tax on goods from countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit is bad for Germany and for the U.S.. It is a double edged sword because 1.6 million German jobs would be affected, according to Ifo Institute.  Yet also true is that German companies generate 672,000 jobs in the U.S., and about 600,000 of the 1.6 million jobs affected in Germany are by American companies in Germany, according to industry body BDI. Many of these American companies would be severely affected. So large is the bilateral trade relationship that no one would come out a winner, all would be big losers. Once the process starts it becomes tit for tat, as Germany and the European Union is faced with a dilemma on how to react, says this editorial. Which is why Merkel and Germany, are coming all out to get the trade talks on the right footing with the Trump administration. Economy minister Zypries warned about taking the case to the WTO if the Trump administration follows through on higher tariffs. Merkel has focussed on trade, and other issues have become secondary at this time. Before this meeting Germany's Gabriel met with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to set the right tone for German- U.S. relations. And the first meeting appears to have been tightly planned so that it goes off with a good start considering what is at stake. Even then this editorial reminds readers that the tone of the tariffs rhetoric from the Trump administration could affect perceptions over the next 4 years. ...

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President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed with near unanimous support by the U.S. Congress. The original U.S. law on Hong Kong passed in 1992 requiring yearly reports on the autonomy of Hong Kong for it to get the "special status" granted to it. This requirement for yearly reports expired in 2007. This requirement is now reinstated. The law signed by Mr. Trump requires the State Department to certify Hong Kong' autonomy annually. The WSJ describes it as a "grim trigger" strategy" which would cause damage to Hong Kong capital markets and is of a magnitude that makes it less likely to be used. Mr. Trump pointedly remarked that he had signed it "out of respect for Mr. Xi, China and Hong Kong," and Mr. Trump has shown respect so far for the protesters but also shown respect for Mr. Xi and China in the middle of the unending nature of the protests. The new Act does not give Mr. Trump any additional powers than he already has. It only changes one aspect of relations- it makes Hong Kong relative autonomy a part of permanent high level issues in China - U.S. relations, including trade and Hong Kong's status as financial center. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says Europe should plan for expanding its role in defense, because the U.S voters in the primaries for both political parties appear to be calling for less U.S. engagement in the world. It says Trump, Sanders, and Clinton voters are moving towards less engagement, and calling for the U.S. to spend less in overseas engagements, more at home. It points out that only Britain, Estonia, Greece, Poland and the U.S. spend the 2% of GDP on defense that is considered a requirement for NATO membership.

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weeks before the trump Kim Jong-Un summit talks in Hanoi, Vietnam, it was evident to the team of U.S. diplomats, sanctions specialists, nuclear experts, that there was a major stumbling block. North Korea wanted much more relief from sanctions than the U.S. was prepared to give in return for a limited denuclearization in North Korea. Still the talks went ahead on the basis of the personal chemistry between Trump and Kim Jong-Un. But former U.S. officials say that in this situation the differences were too big to be solved on the basis of personal rapport alone. For some time ahad of the summit talks in Hnoi the U.S. had already eased its position reports the WSJ, so that the U.S. was no longer insisting that North Korea largely denuclearize during Mr. Trump's current term in office. a full accounting of North Korea's nuclear programs was not required at the start of negotiations. North Koreans also came up with options to close the Yongbyon nuclesr complex. The sticking point was that major sanctions relief was expected without other nuclear facilities being listed for inspection and denuclearization. ...

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Kessler and Lee do the fact check in the Washington Post on Hillary Clinton's comment in the third Democratic U.S. presidential debate in Dec. 2015. Clinton says "Donald Trump is becoming ISIS's best recruiter. They are going to people showing videos of Donald Trump insulting Islam and Muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists." This was an effort by Clinton to distinguish her approach to terrorism from that of Trump. Kessler and Lee say Clinton referred to videos of ISIS that so far cannot be found. The closest to this is an NBC news report citing Rita Katz of the SITE Intelligence Group monitoring Islamic terrorist groups that Trump's comment on barring entry of Muslims to the U.S. could be used as a recruiting tool. The Clinton campign says Hillary was referring to this.

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WSJ describes the role of U.S. Attorney General Barr working with president Lopez Obrador of Mexico in strengthening Mexican law enforcement, increased border checks to prevent heavy weapons trafficking, and making the changes in the legal system that would help extradition to the U.S. After a period in which Mr. Obrador vacillated in his approach for tackling migration he deployed the Mexican National Guard on the border with Guatemala. Mr. Barr met twice with Mr. Obrador to get Mexico's close cooperation to combat the opioid crisis in the U.S. After a new North American trade deal was signed into law to replace NAFTA Mexico is working closely with the Trump administration in a number of areas after initial disagreements. After the death of U.S. citizens in Mexico in an ambush in November president Trump called for designating the groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Mexico is now making changes for law enforcement and says it is doing so in Mexico's own interests. ...

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

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Iraq is Iran's most promising market for gas exports. Iraq needs the gas for its power stations now that Islamic State has been decisively cleared from Iraq. Yet Iraq is having difficulty making payments to Iran for gas supplies because banks are not ready to handle the payments with the reimposed tighter U.S. sanctions and restrictions. The deputy head of media at the Electricity ministry in Iraq, Sadoun Shehan, told WSJ that transfer of money by Iraqi banks is prevented because of U.S. sanctions. U.S. sanctions were reimposed by the Trump administration after they were lifted in January 2016. The new sanctions prohibit gas exports from Iran. Iran had hoped to make the sales and also export to the European Union when sanctions were lifted. Iranian exports of gas that started in 2017 were itself delayed for 4 years by the war from Islamic State.  Iran has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The Trump administration's sanctions have led to a drop of Iranian crude shipments by 29% in 3 months and added to upward pressure on oil prices to take prices to $80 a barrel. This issue has implications for India and China, particularly India as it faces both higher prices for oil and the tight restrictions in purchase of Iranian oil. ...

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The controversy surrounding the statement by Trump following the hacking of the DNC emails and putting it out on the 1st day of the Democratic National Convention was covered widely. Trump said: "Russia, if you are listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. Let's see if that happens." This coupled with Trump statements that he would not assure the Baltic Republics and other parts of Eastern Europe  that the U.S. would come to their aid in the event of a Russian attack have created new tensions in Europe. This has also led to heavy criticism from U.S. military commanders, from NATO leaders, and from leaders in the Republican and Democratic parties including Speaker Ryan. Some called it "a seismic development," and unprecedented, with involvement of foreign powers in the U.S. elections generally resented by the American people, according to experts.

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Mr. Trump has a firm resolve not to get the U.S. involved in wars in distant places so that he can focus on important economic and other issues including the current confrontation with China on trade. He has relied on advice from General Keane as he forged American policy on Iran and other foreign policy issues. Mr. Bolton the National Security Adviser holds strong opinions on Iran and this is seen as a problem that could accidentally create more tensions or war with Iran. He was passed over with the job going to General McMaster in the earlier part of the Trump administration.The use of an aircraft carrier moving to the Persian Gulf region was merely a precautionary measure says the Trump administration, and the U.S. continues to look for ways to work out its differences with Iran even as it imposed sanctions on Iran. This brings the U.S. closer to its allies in Europe.

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Addressing the UN General Assembly in a virtual setting Mr. Trump tells delegates that China should be held accountable for certain actions in letting the coronavirus pandemic spread. He included the denial by China of human to human transmission very early before Feb-March, and its allowing Chinese flights to go overseas when it had completely banned flights domestically. He said flights were allowed to leave China after the virus spread from Wuhan even after Mr. Trump banned flights from China to the U.S. This spread the virus from China to Europe and to America.  Mr. Trump says the WHO is controlled by China. And this happened after foundations such as the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation and other foundations partly replaced the strong role played by the U.S. government at the world health agency during the post war period maintaining strong U.S. and European oversight in the earlier period. The lack of cooperation by China to let American experts into Wuhan immediately in January played a role in delaying the U.S. getting a first hand look at the coronavirus at the epicentre. Instead a 2-3 week delay left the U.S. Europe and India unprepared for the speed and havoc caused.  The only way to tackle the coronavirus was with speed and that speedy response was doubly needed because Europe and the U.S. had no recent experience with epidemics. Even India and rest of Asia, Latin America, Africa have no experience with this type of transmission and spread making time absolutely critical.  This speed was affected because China and the WHO acted as stumbling blocks in this view of what happened. The result was that in past pandemics were fought together, this pandemic was fought on a country by country basis, a bad precedent. ...

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Comments about immigration policy by Donald Trump, candidate for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, create uneasiness in Mexico. Trump says he would block the billions of dollars that illegal immigrants from Mexico in the U.S. send back to Mexico, and deport millions of Mexicans in the U.S. illegally back to Mexico.

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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The Trump administration has pulled together $18 billion of the funding for the border wall, the fencing that will replace inadequate exiting barriers along 885 mile stretch on the U.S.- Mexico border. This includes the current budget proposal for $2 billion in funding request. The remainder was collected by shifting funds from the military. During the initial request to Congress it was given only $1.325 billion. President Trump made up the difference by declaring a state of emergency in February 2019, allowing funds for military construction projects to be shifted to the border wall funding- $6.7 billion in 2019 and $7.2 billion in 2020. A lot of the construction will happen in 2021, assuming Mr. Trump wins a second term. The Trump administration hopes to have built or under construction 450 miles in 2020. Much of it is concentrated on federally owned land, across vast regions of Texas, because of no legal obstacles from private landowners unwilling to give up land. ...

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Dana Milbank of the WP says the views of some Democrats on Trump as a good Republican nominee based on the notion that he has high negative perception with voters is fraught with dangers for U.S. democracy. Milbank points out that this ignores what is good for the country. Having Trump as the nominee of one of the two main parties would create a divisive atmosphere and is not good for the country, says Milbank. In comparing Trump with Cruz, he says Trump is likely to follow his instincts to operate outside the U.S. constitutional system. Cruz as a person believes in the U.S. constitution and would never endorse violence or action against minorities. Cruz has not done enough to come across as a likable person with his persistent focus on conservative or Reagan values to the exclusion of everything else. This is changing in mid-April 2016 following a CNN interview with the Cruz family, a MSNBC town hall answering questions from undecided voters, and NYT coverage of Cruz at a Brooklyn bakery, that shows a different human face that people have never seen about Cruz. Cruz's self-deprecating humor in a NYT article where he talks about voters not liking "a hectoring scold," is part of this needed change that could have happened earlier in the campaign. About Trump Milbank cites Conservative party prime minister Cameron who says Trump would unite all Britons against him if he ever came to Britain....

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Fact check looks at the facts and what candidates claimed happened. Jeb Bush is right says fact check about the casinos Trump tried to get started in Florida. Fiorina overstates what she accomplished at H-P. Kasich is largely right about fixing the finances in Ohio. Trump is wrong about the U.S. being the only country with birthright citizenship- there are 30 countries according to The Center for Immigration Studies. Trump throws the number out of $200 billion, as what it is costing the U.S. for illegal immigrants. An estimate by The Federation for American Immigration Reform put this at $113 billion a year in welfare programs. From this one has to deduct what illegal immigrants pay in payroll taxes to get a good estimate. Trump says he never went bankrupt, he means not him personally- his companies have filed for bankruptcy Chapter 11 protection. Considering how many times Trump has misstated, it would be useful if the network broadcasting the debate would have an independent company do the fact check at the same time as the misstatements are thrown around, and show this on the bottom of the screen or during the advertising breaks, because it is very important to viewers to get the right information. In our opinionated partisan environment it is important to let candidates know that they cannot get away with it by misstating facts, over and over again....

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The increase in economic sanctions in response to missile testing is seen by North Korea as "a violent violation of our sovereignty." The sanctions would cut the export revenues of North Korea by one third, further damaging a fragile economy. The North Korean communist government sees a nuclear capability as the only way to maintain its survival. The rhetoric between the U.S. and South Korea with the North Korean government takes place during military exercizes by the U.S. and South Korea. The tweets by president Trump and the missile tests of the North Korean government have escalated the situation to where everything about this is in uncharted territory in 2017. China backs the sanctions as it has increasingly lost control of the North Korean government's actions, even though it sees the North as a buffer zone in relation to the U.S. alliance with South Korea. South Korea's major city Seoul is only 50 miles from the border, making South Koreans play down any confrontation with the North.  ...

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In the final debate for the U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump dodges the question from moderator Chris Wallace about accepting the election results. He tells Wallace "I will tell you you at the time," and when asked again says- "I'll keep you in suspense." Most experts think Clinton appeared to be the better candidate, especially with her closing statement to voters. She spent more time preparing which showed as she made crucial points on Putin, Trump's tax returns, the economy, and brought the focus onto Trump's behaviour during the campaign denigrating women and minorities, using scare tactics.

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In the third and final debate of the 2016 U.S. presidential election Hillary Clinton shows she has mastered the techniques used by Trump to use short jabs and comments to unsettle her opponent, yet doing it in a meaningful way to make a point about how she is better qualified and her program helps the middle and working class.

On taxes she added to her plan about not increasing taxes for people making more than $250,000, with the comment that it would increase her and Trump's taxes provided she said Trump hasn't "figured out how to get out of it." It also was meant to draw Trump's response about not revealing his tax returns and plans to give hugely disproportionate tax cuts to higher income people. Trump called her "a nasty women," in response, which was a point cited by media reports as a negative for women voters.

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This interview with Donald Trump by the publisher, editors and columnists of The Washington Post, Ryan Jr., Hiatt, Lane, Marcus, Diehl, Armai, Attiah, provides an exceptional insight into the views of Donald Trump on domestic and foreign policy, on his campaign for president. It is the result of an effort to get Trump to state his policies on different issues without the fuzziness in which Trump has carried out his campaign, often taking different sides of the same issue. In some situations Trump is pressed hard on his positions or controversial statements, to clarify what he has not clarified in the burst of media attention Trump received in the past 6 months, especially on television media. First some myths and realities. A recent March 19, 2016, issue of the Economist cites the Pew Trust in showing that only about 17% of eligible Republican voters voted in the primaries. A person watching television news media coverage on Fox News, CNN, or MSNBC, would get the impression that the voter turnout was tremendous- this is not confirmed by the Pew Trust survey. The Economist points out that had the other eligible voters cast their ballots and even if Trump had a share of these votes, the results might look different. With a highly fragmented vote in the Republican primaries, and about half of the vote going to candidates other than Trump, Trump's voter support would add up to about 8-9% of eligible Republican voters based on the Pew Survey results. The question here would be is this a representative sample of the U.S. or of the Republican Party. And is one likely to make false generalizations about the nature of the Republican party from such a limited sample of voter opinion. Is voter sentiment inadequately reflected, and results hopelessly skewed because of the lack of good candidates in the Republican Party, and Trump's tactical rhetoric appealing to a group of working class Americans left out in the technological progress of the last decade. In the process is the hard work of the founders of the Republic, Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison and the framers of the Constitution being undone by a minority of disaffected voters with legitimate grievances on distribution of economic benefits of the technological progress, trade and global manufacturing networks- with a level of divisive rhetoric and decline in levels of public debate rarely seen. These are the clarifications sought from Trump and his response. Attiah raises the question of divisive rhetoric on minorities Hispanics and Black people- Trump says he is only talking about people here illegally, that he gets support from Hispanics here legally. He turns the question to Muslims and says there is a serious problem there that means being careful about how people are being admitted into the U.S. Questions about Trump's controversial statements about a wall with Mexico are not raised. Ryan pushes hard on the question of the libel laws standard that Trump says he is going to change, asking whether this would happen if Trump thinks the reporting "is wrong" but there is no malice. Trump wants the reporting to be fair for him, that reporters call him to check if he did this or that and why, before writing stuff about him, and he sees the reporting from the Post as very bad about him. He says his lawyers would have to tell the media, that he believes he should loosen up the standards so that this kind of coverage does not continue. On ISIS Trump pulls back when asked by Diehl about statements that suggested he would send the number of troops the generals wanted on the ground- estimated at 20,000 to 30,000- saying he would find it very, very, difficult to do that. On a nuclear option for ISIS Trump says he does not favor that. Suggesting that Trump like the other candidates in the election know there are no easy ways to tackle ISIS. Trump would rely on other countries in the region for help with troops on the ground, something that president Obama also favors, with limited results. Diehl also pushes hard on NATO- Trump says hundreds of billions of dollars are going to NATO and the whole burden for defending South Korea falls on the U.S. when it is not now a rich country that it once was. Diehl corrects him by saying for the public record that its not hundreds of billions, and South Korea, Japan pay 50% of the cost for defending their region. Trump wants to see 100% for the Korean peninsula defense borne by the South Koreans and Japan. Trump seees NATO as a good concept but needing more help from Germany, Poland, Baltics. At one point the Washington Post journalists tell Trump this is a position he shares with president Obama. Trump responds to questions from Hiatt about how he would handle the situations in black communities such as Ferguson, Missouri, and Baltimore, Maryland. Trump says he feels law enforcement is important and should play a big role in preventing the destruction of property from day one. He says jobs are what hurts inner cities but offers no solution about how to get the jobs lost in the steel industry for Baltimore, black neighborhoods sitting ironically next to the John Hopkins high technology university complex. Trump brings up the response that jobs could be created if the U.S. simply did not spend money on supporting nationbuilding overseas, a policy that president Obama has supported, and which the public has favored in the U.S. As Holman Jenkins brings up in a column on March 22, 2016 in the Wall Street Journal, these policies are being pursued today, and most of these jobs are not coming back so how would Trump bring them back or do anything about it, especially when Chinese workers in China's factories are being displaced by robotics in places such as Hon Hai factories. The more one thinks about it many of things Trump is saying are already being done, and there are no new solutions Mr. Trump has for today's problems of lack of upward mobility for the middle and working class- a priority for Sanders and Clinton also, not just for Trump. As a television personality and a candidate with a understanding of voter concerns, Trump artfully voices voter concerns of working class Americans for problems that defy easy solutions. Are there risks with Trump's approach that Trump has failed to think through or grasp? Does the unpredictable behaviour Trump suggests that would get allies thinking and trade partners responding lead to unpredictable consequences? Divisive rhetoric creates additional distractions in tackling the problems of the middle class and working class Americans. Divisive rhetoric within the NATO alliance would create additional distractions in tackling the problems of defending the European Union, such as using the very show of unpredictability. Diehl pushes Trump on this question. Would trade threats to China lead to a withdrawal from the Senkaku Islands by China? Trump says he thinks this would cause the Chinese to retreat . What if the Chinese see it differently, in their relations with Japan and South Korea, with a long difficult history, not necessarily in their relations with the U.S. Would a trade war hurt the global economy, and hurt confidence in U.S. fianncial markets just when the U.S. and European economies are staging a recovery, and when the economes of China, Japan and India are in a sensitive phase? These questions could not be raised because of time constraints, but must be on the minds of the editors of the Post and the WSJ, coming from different ends of the political spectrum. How would this help tackle the problem of upward mobility for working class Americans that all the candidates in the presidential election share? ...

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It is hard to imagine that one is even writing about this, as shocking as it is- the 4 or 5 minutes between a decision to launch nuclear weapons and the end of life on this planet earth as we know it. Here Sam Nunn, a U.S. senator who was part of the negotiations for arms control and who is the leading American in this field talks about the unimaginable danger. He says the strategy from the Cold War where Russia and the U.S. put their nuclear forces in a position to be launched within minutes, 4 to 5 minutes, is outdated and needs to be changed. Hillary Clinton described the issue in the television debate. Yet this was not discussed because of the nature of the 2016 presidential election with lack of serious discussion.  And both Nunn and Clinton emphasize that once the missiles are in the air they cannot be ordered to go back. Accidental error, judgemental error, informational error in which one side thinks the other has launched a missile, a firing by mistake, are possible. In this situation Nunn says Trump is temperamentally unfit, and Clinton is fit to take on the responsibility. Yet the question this raises is as Nunn signals- is anyone but God fit to make this decision to launch nuclear weapons. Nunn says it is outdated and wrong to have only a few minutes, as such a decision cannot be made in a few hours or days, much less in 5 minutes. Nunn brings up a discussion he had in Moscow when he brought this up with Russians and president Putin. Russian president Putin told Nunn that he was fully aware of this. Putin's response was- "Senator Nunn, at some point it becomes automatic."  Nunn does not clarify what this means, or what Putin means to say. For people on the planet it is not enough to have Reagan, Gorbachev, Clinton, as Nunn mentions being responsible people for a nuclear decision. The current state of affairs is simply shocking and the lack of attention to this is also shocking. Equally dangerous is that 20 countries have weapons usable nuclear material, and sophisticated hacking of command and control processes is another danger.       ...

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A list of Tariffs by Nation are shown here in the BBC. DJT held out a chart showing these tariffs in the Rose Garden on Liberation Day, April 2, 2025. These are half reciprocal tariffs says DJT, only half each country charges as tariffs on US products including manipulating currency and non tariff barriers, the US he says is being "kind."  Top of the list in tariffs were- China  34%  European Union 20% Vietnam   46% Japan    24% South Korea 25% India     26% Taiwan 32% Britain    10% Brazil      10% Turkey     10% Argentina  10% ...