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Elizabeth Rosenthal looks at Obamacare's contribution to cost containment in 2013-2014. Rosenthal says its is a kind of delicate maneuvring at the edges, because serious work needs to be done. The fee-for-service and many of the drivers for increases in medical costs, the old system of pricing, are still in place. In 20 years at the current rate and after Obamacare health care will still take 25% of the U.S. budget if nothing is done. Healthcare costs are about half that of the U.S. in some of the advanced European countries. She calls Obamacare a trickle down theory of cost containment becaue it leaves most of the drivers for cost increase in place and works at the margins. Princeton economist Uwe Reinhardt calls it an ugly patch on a somewhat ugly system. Rosenthal cites the armies of consultants anticipating every move to reduce prices, and working on "strategic billing'' to increase revenues for hospitals and doctors. For those who say the prices are now up more slowly than in the past, Michael Chernew of the Harvard Medical School, has this to say- its like a diet, reminding us that that we haven't even lost weight, just gaining weight slower than before. ...

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This report in WSJ says president Trump's trade policies have flopped so far. Part of the reason are Mr. Trump's tax policies which acted like a stimulus to the U.S. economy at a time when the world economy and China were slowing, even though this created a large fiscal deficit. Increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies making imports cheaper. The Trump tariffs are in play in negotiations with the Chinese government, and the WSJ argues that Trump's tax policies are in play too. Not that the Trump threat of tariffs has not accomplished its initial intent of getting China to the negotiating table in a serious way for the first time since it joined the WTO, and reminding it of its WTO obligations and obligations for maintaining a level trading field free of state sponsored subsidies to reduce competition. Economists argue this proves that the trade deficit is influenced only by macro or larger economic influences such as the strength of your currency and demand for imports. In the long run the Trump tariff action may work, yet the tax policies may prove inconsistent in increasing the fiscal deficit without producing gains in investment in infrastructure and other vital areas of investment in the economy that would provide benefits to society. ...

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About 105,000 airings of ads on immigration making up 42% of all Republican ads in battleground states are on the Immigration issue since Harris became candidate July 22, according to WSJ analysis. WSJ polling shows 59% of respondents favored the bipartisan Senate deal negotiated by Republican Senator Lankford with Biden which Trump rejected in February. This deal would have effectively closed the Border, added Border Patrol resources, and would have passed says Lankford in NYT if it came only 3 months earlier in December 2024 before Mr. Trump won the primaries. Mr. Trump rejected the deal preferring to run on it, leading to action by Biden to do this with executive orders and cut illegal entry. This means less advertising for discussing the Economy and less for Inflation, which is the top issue says WSJ polling, immigration coming in second.   WSJ cites the Congressional Budget Office on the number of legal migration in the Biden term as 4.5 million, and illegal entry at 4.5 million. Instead the Trump-Vance Republican campaign is using the figure over 4 times that for illegal migration of 20 million without saying why and makes less distinction between legal and illegal entry, says WSJ. And makes statements that economists say is not the case that this will solve the housing supply and cost crisis, and other cost of living pressures. ...

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Brian Deese and other economists remind us that the government is still not able to negotiate the prices of drugs with pharmaceutical companies something that government was instructed not to do under a Republican administration with a George W. Bush administration rule that has hurt millions of Americans since 2003. In fact December 3, 2003 may be a day of ignominy for Americans who face high cost of pharmaceutical drugs, and actions that send money from the pockets of government that would go into fixing aging infrastructure, and from pockets of ordinary Americans that would go into meeting the cost of living to improve ease of living. President Biden without the needed majorities in Congress was able to only specify certain drugs on which negotiation could take place. There is a need to cut pharmaceutical costs for the American public, there is a need to be like everybody else in the community of nations in Europe and Asia that pay only so much for pharmaceuticals not many times more. Making the US worse off than Indians and Chinese who can access these drugs and find it affordable for most of the people of 3 billion in these countries. The contrast makes one question what is a developed and a developing country as what has happened in the last 3 decades in America has turned this  question on its head- with irresponsible presidents and irresponsible Congress. ...

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The Economist cautions that recovery is nowhere in sight, the hope points to only amoderating of the steep downturn. The 20% rise in the stock market for two thirds of the 42 stock markets that the Economist tracks in the past 6 weeks, can easily fizzle out as has happened before. Between 1929 and 1932 the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up more than 20% four times only to fall back to previous lows, and this crisis has seen 5 separate rallies of more than 10% only to fall back. But toxix assets have not been cleared up at Us and European banks, And consumption in the US, Germany, Japan and China shows no signs of coming back for years especially in the US where saving is increasing. And European banks have about $1 trillion in losses in central and Eastern Europe that have not been recognized, and the slide in the British and Spanish economies proceeds. And developing cpuntries have $1.8 trillion worth of borrowing to roll over this year, with less access to foreign investment. At one point the emerging countries imported capital worth 5% of their GDP, now cautious investors will keep that money at home. In America rising foreclosures and rising unemployment, combined with lower consumption, will keep economic growth down for years. Rising debt will limit future fiscal stimulus in countries like Japan and the US. Chinese growth will be constrained by its overdependence on infrastructure spending and lack of serious changes to its healthcare system which makes consumers save more for medical crises....

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Too big to run is where the banks are today. Excellence in management would help, but banks have just grown too big, bigger than even before the crisis. Bank of America's 2.3 trillion dollars in assets is 10 times the size of Exxon says the Econmist, and they need to shrink and simplify things. And even with the deities at Goldman Sachs the bank remains a black box.

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This editorial page opinion in The Economist says the increasing concentration in business is a real problem today. It says tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon are entrenching through acquisitions of smaller companies and startups leading to an unhealthy level of concentration, and control of entire markets. More competition is needed so that startups and smaller companies can grow, and new ideas or ways of doing things get a chance. A big problem is tax avoidance with individuals paying taxes like everybody else, and large tech companies like Google and Apple having the option to not have to pay just like everybody else. It calls for a "tough-but-considered" approach to tax avoidance. Its not that the money saved in taxes goes back to support millions of people hired by the industry through workers wages and future investment that builds a future for workers and the company. It cites figures showing 1.2 million employed in the top 3 carmakers in the U.S. auto industry in 1990, and only 137,000 employed by the top 3 companies in Silicon Valley including Apple and Google with capitalization of about $1 trillion.This contributes to a sense of unfairness that is being expressed in voter sentiment in the 2016 elections, especially with the wide divergence in the way that the top 45 percent has done in net worth of over $400,000 in 2013, after the 5% which is in the millions, and the bottom 50 percent at average overall net worth of $25,000 in 2013. A huge disparity that  U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Yellen, who cited these figures at a Boston Fed conference in Oct. 2014, says is "near their highest levels in the last one hundred years and probably much higher than for much of American history before then."  ...

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Krugman points out that the high growth during Jeb Bush's period as governor of Florida was a result of the housing boom years. When that boom collapsed by 2008 the economy slumped badly. Taken as an average for the boom and slump years Florida's growth rate is slightly below the national average, says Krugman. Economists and other experts say productivity is a key factor for increasing wages and growth, which is a result of factors depending on the use of technology, business investment in productivity, human capital. It is stuck at a low level of 0.4% since 2010, according to economists, and not a factor that is dependent on who is president. During the two terms of president Obama growth was 2.1%, George H.W. Bush 2.0%, George W. Bush 1.6%- making the Bush and Obama years in office similiar in terms of growth. Before 2000 we see higher growth rates under a Republican president Reagan 3.4% and a Democratic president Clinton 3.7%. A significant factor since 2008 is the financial crisis and housing bubble which has in many countries such as Japan and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in the U.S., led to a lost decade....

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Renewed warnings about the bubble in housing prices in China. Earlier warnings came from Krugman, Lardy, John Taylor. This one comes from Nomura economists Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen. Could the government's action to curb rising housing prices not be adequate leading to a financial crisis as early as 2014, is the question posed by Zhang and Chen. They cite the rise of housing prices by 84% from 2001 to 2006, before the financial crisis of 2008 in the U.S., using the Case-Shiller housing price index. One problem- the government statistics may have underestimated the extent of the bubble. China's official index shows housing prices rising 113% in major cities from 2004 to 2012. Zhang and Chen say this is much smaller than the actual rise because it includes older, lower quality housing property. They cite an academic paper that adjusts for this and finds prices jumping by 250% in the period 2004 to 2009. Another problem is that China's housing prices growth slows after government action but then resumes the growth, leaving the risk exposure at the high level as before. Because the local governments are tied up in the housing bubble the problem would hit the banking system. About 14.1% of the outstanding bank loans are to local government financing vehicles, and 6.2% to property developers, according to Nomura economists. The declining potential growth rate in China means there is less room for bad loans to be absorbed by hyper growth levels than in the past. Errors in policy can magnify the risk including loosening monetary policy and exacerbating the bubble at the wrong time. In the absence of errors the risks still remain requiring the sale of public assets to bail out local governments and banks. The argument made by Krugman and other economists has been that China is not immune to the risks of a housing bubble going bad, in any way less than Sweden, the U.S., Spain and other countries, requiring bailouts of banks....

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Morgenson cites Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics in London, about why the $26 billion mortgage settlement between the state attorneys general, the U.S. government and the large U.S. banks is unlikely to make much difference to the foreclosure problems in the housing market. The agreement provides for reducing principal by $17 billion over 3 years for homeowners under water. Diggle points out that $17 billion is a drop compared to what is needed, because 11 million homeowners are now under water on their loans to the amount of $700 billion. The $17 billion is a mere 2.4% of the negative equity of $700 billion.

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This article in the Economist magazine says the initial criteria for the euro currency were fudged to let southern European countries with weak finances into the euro region. The result was that Italy, Spain and Portugal were allowed in, followed later by Greece. This was a critical design defect for the euro currency. It says French president Mitterand accepted German unification and German president Kohl gave up the Deutsche Mark in exchange for the Euro, under the 1992 Maastricht Treaty that set up the euro currency. The other flaw was the lack of a bail out mechanism if governments needed help, the ECB not designed to tackle this, and the central banks of each country not capable of tackling this on their own. With the lack of devaluation option to address inflation, and drop in competitiveness of some countries, the mechanisms to address economic problems were not put in place- it says because political union was seen as happening earlier but never happened. The French are seen as more interested in pursuing closer economic integration, with Germany not as keen until budget discipline is established first. Germany also looks at immigration as a critical area in which agreement has to be reached. As a result the euro currency is likely to continue with some of its current problems, yet with improvements in many areas such as budget discipline and lessons learned from the eurozone crisis in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.   ...

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Andrew Rosenthal expresses Democratic party skepticism about Romney's tax plans to reduce tax rates for all Americans by 20%, reduce taxes for the middle class, and increase what the rich pay by reducing deductions and closing loopholes, and still be able to support the budget. Harvard economist and Romney advisor Feldstein has done the research on how Romney could do this and which loopholes Romney would address, in the WSJ 8/28/2012. The gap between the two parties is so large, and President Obama's failure to take the Simpson-Bowles recommendations to reduce deductions seriously, is leading to a lack of openness to different ideas.

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According to areport by the Manufacurer's Alliance/MAPI USA manufacturing output is expected to decline by 12% this year. Steel production fell 61% in the first quarter over prior year, motor vehicles and parts dropped 41% and semiconductors dropped 40%. Medical equipment production was up 2% in the first quarter, and communications gear production up 6%. THe chief economist of MAPI, Mr Mecksworth, says when the economy turns and depleted inventories are replaced growth will still be slow, because companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years. In his words the whole deleveraging of the economy will depress the growth rate.

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This editorial in the Economist says Brazilians deserve a chance to vote in a new general election for a new government that will tackle problems- including overspending that hurts growth by increasing debt, and the deep seated corruption in the political system. But knowing the history of this parliament and the political parties it says this is unlikely. Brazil will be left to deal with the problems under a weak government that does not have the confidence of voters to take needed action. Eventually an election will occur and voters will have an opportunity to choose a new government. Voters should grasp that opportunity to opt for better governance.

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Unemployment is at 13% in Ireland. The economy shrank 7.1% in 2009. The budget showed adeficit of 14.3% in 2009, and debt is expected to reach 77% of GDP in 2010. Ireland is facing severe cuts and austerity measures, in its effort to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2014. Nearly $37 billion is being used to support banks like Anglo-Irish. A former chief economist at the IMF says its a pathway that avoids default, but it has its own costs. An export revival that the government hopes will occur, will not reduce the jobless rate by much. And young Irish people are immigrating to other countries.

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President Yudhoyono picks the former finance minister and central bank governor Boediono, a respected economist, as his running mate for elections in July. Indonesia is still growing at a rate of 4.4% from a year earlier, down from 5.2% in the 4th quarter. As economy minister till earlier this year Boediono was instrumental in getting a popular program to give $20 a month to Indonesia's 19 million poorest families, reaching about a third of the country's 240 million people. This is similiar to programs in place in Brazil and India, though the Brazilian program works with incentives for parents to send their children to school.

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The EU statistics agency Eurostat reported that the eurozone countries GDP declined by 0.3% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter of 2011. The decline for Germany was 0.2%. For Italy the decline was 0.7% over the prior quarter according to Istat, the Italian statistics agency. Spain 0.3% decline over the prior quarter. France experienced 0.2% growth over the prior quarter with larger exports by Airbus and more business investment. Italy plans cuts to military spending reducing aircraft purchases, buying 90 instead of 131 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets. Only France and Slovakia showed quarterly growth.

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The Economist describes the fraud in the election and the odious group of warlords and crooks that Karzai has pulled together to get support for this election. If they get as reward positions in the ministries then "the war is over" according to one diplomat. And without acredible government the chances are poor for any"good outcomes." Eide, the UN diplomat in the country says ultimately this will be decided not by governments but by people sitting at thier kitchen tables making up their mind as the follow the information in the media. And the President has only 37% of Democrats with him who want to see more troops in Afghanistan in a recent poll.

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Discussions on Fannie and Freddie crisis and need for government intervention at the annual confeence in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Opinions of Feldstein, Meltzer, Summers, Fischer, and other economists.

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Important year end reveiw of the oil price forecasting work of so many anlaysts and where they failed . The IEA and the US Enery Dpt forecast have year after year underestimated this pirce by over 20%. Analysts change the price forecasts within a couple of weeks based on changing information and assumptions. Of all this the Saudi Arabian forecasts have ben within 12 % of what has actually ocurred according to a study by Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants of Muich, Germany. And whats their forecast for 2008. By extrapolating from the Saudi budget and the assumptions, used such as giving a wide margin to avoid a deficit in the budget if oil prices undershot by a wide margin, one gets $75 for US benchmark crude. Forecast by experts are in the neighborhood of $80 average for the whole year 2008. Goldman recently revised theirs upwards from $85 average for 2008 to $95 within a 4 week period. How good is the Goldman forecast. No one really knows. Lehman has a forecast of $84 average for 2008 and bases it on the opacity of the market because no one knows what OPEC will do with supply and China does not provide good information on demand. So basically anlysts are adding an uncertainty premium to the price of oil. And this is especially so because as the Chief Economist at IEA says global space capacity is so thin and any event can influence price. Last year the rhetoric about Irans nuclear intentions was enough to stir up the price, as were other smaller events disrupting supplies. But the Iranian situation has since cooled down and diplomatic solutions are in the works. So what to expect in 2008 in the way of political uncertainty. Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon have all seen a cool off in the ast couple of years and the Bush administration rhetoric has become outmoded as has other rhetoric from Iran so that does'nt look like it will stir up oil prices in 2008. Still there will be some uncertainty premium about supply from OPEC and demand from China and India. And demand from the Middle Eastern oil producing countries themselves as well as the increasing demand in India and China will mean that lower demand in the US because of a recession will still mean an increase in global demand over 2007 of 1.5 million barrrels a day over 2007's 85 million barrels a day. What will change the dynamics of this situation is the government mandated fuel economy for all vehicles on the road with Europe more aggressive in this area under the pressures of global warming. If this impacts India, China and Russia as these fuel saving technologies are transferrred there overall consumption should see an impact. Europe's targets are only 4 years away for 2012. And the environment may cause China to bring in newer technologies that both contribute to improving environment and conserving energy. Because China's environmental record is almost catastrophic one could see some of this happen much sooner than expected after the Olympics in 2008. All that might change the way the world looks at oil and its use, and all energy sources and their use. ...

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Romney emphasizes that he supports some of the popular parts of the Obama Healthcare Law such as coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. He tells voters he got everybody in his state insured. He also says there will not be a huge cut in taxes that would worsen the deficit. He would close loopholes and deductions to offset any deductions as shown by his advisor Harvard economist Martin Feldstein. The idea is to get a message across that will resonate with women, minorities, the middle class, workers, and business- the 100%, something he is able to do with some credibility having come from Massachusetts, a liberal state in the eastern United States.

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The Economist takes a pessimistic view of EU's relations with Turkey, based now it says on expediency- the EU's need for Turkey to stem the flow of refugees, Turkey facing a sensitive border with Syria and internal opposition to the Erdogan government after restrictions on the media and the judiciary. Turks get visa free entry into Germany in exchange for taking back refugees crossing the Aegean into Europe.

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The reasons for pessimism are the effect of the global credit decline which makes it harder for Indian business to get access to credit, and the impact of shrinking export markets overseas. The lower inflation and less need for oil subsidies with the fall in the oil price are positive factors. The biggest positive factors though are the fact that exports amount to a much smaller amount of GDP, about 22%, smaller than other Asian exporting countries, as the export markets shrink. The resilience of its democracy and the energy and dynamism of its young people, added to the demographics that show about half the population is below the age of 25, and 40% under the age of 18, so there will be more wage earners and savings to support growth for decades to come. What experts including at the Economist see as the major advantage is the high savings rate which has risen from 28% in 2003-2004 to 35.5% in 2007 according to the Economist statistics. With this the investment rate in India has grown from 25% in the 1990's to 35% in the last five years since 2003 with Indian manufacturing growing at arate of 12% in 2007. And the Indian investment rate has been covered mostly by domestic savings. The two areas that hobble growth are the education levels and the state of the infrastructure which are challenges for organizations inside and outside the government and for business and will remain so for many years. With the global financial crisis the Indian growth rate is expected to fall to somehwere in the range of 5-6% for 2009 by experts. ...

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Matteo Renzi wins a confidence vote in the Senate by 169 to 139. His economic plan is to give business a boost. He calls on Italians to free themselves from "cultural subalternity" or inferiority to Europe, and "to dream bigger." The plan is for a double digit cut in Italy's payroll taxes, creating guarantee funds for small companies, and paying all of the money the government owes to suppliers estimated at 100 billion euros. Renzi covered the subject of addressing school repairs costing several billion euros. His new cabinet has half of the ministers as women, some under 40, six from the previous Letta government. The Economy minister is Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist of the OECD.

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Jessica Todd, a USDA economist, says in a report that about 20% of the improvement in the diets of people surveyed comes from Americans eating out less at fast food places or restaurants. And this particular improvement she says is from an increased awareness on nutrition in picking out food, more choices available, and more nutritional information available to buyers. About one third of U.S. adults or 36% were obese in 2009-2010, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is a large increase from 15% in 1980. Studies show this is now declining gradually with increased public awareness of the risks of poor eating habits, including risks of diabetes.