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The Waldorf was built in 1931 by Hilton Hotels founder Conrad Hilton. After a century of use it was outdated and needed major repairs. In 2014 Hilton decided to sell it and hired Blackstone advisors who said it would get about $1 billion. China had just allowed Chinese to buy foreign assets in 2014, and a Chinese founder of a regional insurance company Anbang Group offered $1.9 billion when Hilton knowing that China was keen in acquiring foreign assets priced it at $2 billion. In 2017 only three years later China decided to pull back from allowing private investments of this kind, Anbang's Wu was arrested for business practices. 2017 was the time when Xi at the 19th  Communist CCP Party Congress put forward his ideas for "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" and made it part of China's Constitution, and launched anti-corruption drive against corrupt business practices. The Waldorf was taken over in this drive by Chinese government. For 10 years China held onto the property and built 375 900 square feet condos in the Waldorf for $6 billion and 375 hotel rooms by the time it reopened in 2025. Was it worth it? Even if China could get $3.2 million for each of 375  900 square foot condos this would generate $1.1 billion. It would take 8 years to generate the remaining $900 million of the $2 billion paid for the Waldorf by Anbang's founder Wu if the Waldorf's 375 rooms were rented out for $1000 a night for 300 days. China would still be at a loss for $6 billion. This type of extravagant business investments characterized Japan in the 1980's and 1990's leading to the gradual stagnation in Japan's economy as other countries caught up in quality control and other production efficiency practices using new IT technologies. China looks to be following the Japanese example with infrastructure overbuilding. The US and EU will catch up in the next wave of investment in America and Europe by 2030 and other Asian economies such as India will also catch up with China. Investment productivity will play a part, new technologies will play a part, and a return of manufacturing to the US and EU, a build of India's manufacturing and logistics will play a part. ...

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China after American and European offshoring of supply chain and manufacturing over three decades is going through a rapid reversal. People to people contacts are also falling off a precipice as it were, showing how badly structured efforts by business focused on profit and not people to people fail miserably, hurting the long term prospect of peaceful cooperation. Foreign Investment that was $100 billion in the first quarter of 2022 is now $20 billion. Tourism down by about 80%. At Zhangjiajie National Park goes from half a million foreign tourists to 50,000 last year. It is typical of this staggering change.  People are not going from America and Europe to China unless they have to. It shows the complete failure of a purely business relationship such as offshoring manufacturing when it hurts workers and families in America and Europe, who turn against it leading to a free fall in relations. American and European business and the governments allied with it failed in this sense to build a world of better interpersonal relations between Asia and the western world. China's experience with industrialization and modernization begun in 1990 is now a cautionary tale for other regions such as India and the Middle East that are planning their own modernization. Much of it happened less from a people to people relationship than from an effort by US business to seize the opening of China after Mao's revolution to offshore American manufacturing as if realizing a new opportunity without understanding its long term consequences for the American people. European business followed American business in this offshoring. It damaged the basic structure of the American and EU peoples based on locally based supply chains and manufacturing at home needed for strong healthy communities, leading to this situation today. The rancor and deeply seated discontent all across America and Europe from communities losing factories and the jobs and wealth coming from it from offshoring by business interests has created this situation.  ...

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Analysts are predicting problems for Honda's plants in China stemming from wage increases. The wages of 500,000 yen per year for a worker in Honda's Chinese plants are double what is paid for a factory worker in India or 33% higher than in Thailand. For the Guangzhou plant to meet domestic demand it would have to have a 50-50 joint venture with a Chinese company, and this would mean getting government approval. For now that plant will remain an export hub. The entire plant -out of 4 Honda has in China- is committed to exporting the Jazz compact to Europe with production of 50,000 vehicles a year. Honda now owns 65% of the plant.

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This story about companies in Australia that have tried a four day week shows employees using two mini weeks working Monday and Tuesday, taking off Wednesday and back to work for Thursday and Friday. It shows employees planning their Mondays and Tuesday miniweek in such a way that they can handle important work and meetings ahead of time. They come back recharged and renewed on Thursday, with Wednesday as the day to break up the work week in two. This has increased productivity at these companies. This is also a useful idea for older employees who work part time and work past usual retirement ages of 60 or 65 years as longevity increases in many countries. This enables retaining the vast experience of older workers in the workplace and promoting the health of older workers by keeping them active. As Japan, the U.S. and Europe and even China become aging societies this is becoming ever more important.  For worker on five day weeks this offers creative ideas to have a four and half day week giving workers a morning off or an afternoon off to recharge with sports or recreation activity or exercize, then coming back to work recharged in the afternoon. Other variations can also be used which promote productivity and employee satisfaction to get more of the most valuable work done more effectively and with enthusiasm, pushing less important work and time wasting out of the way. Employees generally would take charge of their work day and come up with creative and efficient ways of organizing their mini work weeks. ...

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German foreign policy is seen as too dependent on China and too China focused, in this conversation of DW.com with experts at German Council on Foreign Affairs (DGAP), European Council on Foreign Relations. Germany had little focus on India and no clear policy to expand ties under Merkel. German foreign policy should take the example of France and other Scandinavian nations in building strong ties with India, says this report. Relations with China of the US and EU countries are strained following trade and technological competition. Merkel continued old policies from 2000-2010 in 2010-2020 even as the EU was losing its technological edge with China. This report says a new German federal government after the upcoming election has to decide what relations it wants to build with India, following the example of France, and Scandinavian nations. And what role the EU will play in India's rapid development in industry,  technology, shipping, transportation, renewable energy, other fields, and opportunities for co-operaton in many fields in 2020-2030. This is also about "Whats at stake for Germany?" in new foreign policy under a new chancellor from SPD or Greens, or some other coalition. And what role Germany will play in the rapid modernization transformation that is now likely to take place in India in the next 10 years. ...

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...

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Wholesale inflation calculated weekly is at 7% in India. And the country's Finance Minister Chidambaram says he is more concerned about inflation than a growth that slows a bit. Experts forecast growth slowing down from 9% to 7% in the next 2 years as the global slowdown affects India. For the US India has been a good export market with sales growing at the rate of 75% a year according to the USA Commerce Department. But a look at the charts shows that China also had periods of a couple of years when growth slowed to 7% in recent years before it gradually went back up to over 10%. And China's growth will also be affected by the global slowdown and fall weel below 10%. And this may be a health y thing for China as it decides what kind of growth it wants to see that is better than the haphazard growth of the last few years with its huge environmental costs and lax regulation and the imbalances in growth between urban and rural as well as wages and benefits without labor law protections to create domestic consumption by a middle class. ...

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Current responses to China's different posture in international relations obscure the huge investments made by US and European Union business in China that lead to about $1 trillion in exports from China to US and EU in 2021. This could not happen without the hyper investment in China by business in the US and EU that not only neglected manufacturing technologies in the home country but did this on a immense scale that would end up shipping almost the whole of the manufacturing supply chains to China from the US and EU. Done as a carefully planned shift of some manufacturing operations it could have benefitted both China and the US and EU. In what way was this hyper move in pace and scale damaging? China's water, air and land was contaminated at a rapid pace never before seen in history, seen as early as 2005. And the hyper shift by 2015 and in 2020 is now showing the severe effects of climate change with droughts, floods and fires all over the world. The German Environment Ministry today counts the cost at 90 times in the use of coal and fossil fuels over time. On the scale that this massive and fast shift was done of manufacturing to China even more so- a hugely imprudent response of US and EU business management and executives. Instead of tackling and confronting head on the challenging problems of quality control and cost in the 1990's through 2000 and beyond at home, management at Apple and other companies simply shifted all manufacturing to China. The other ill effect of the imprudent response of American business was in the massive and wholesale shift of supply chain to China by offshoring practically the entire manufacturing base. It was to lead to the massive losses that workers, families  and communities in the US and EU that countries could not cope with as it moved on an accelerated hyper level and pace. The result was to lead to intense criticism of China and a level of rancor that has poisoned the relations with China. Some of this counsel to China was given to leaders of the Communist party who had little knowledge of American capitalism operating within constraints of social democracy in 1990. Some of that counsel was self interested given by investment banks to Chinese officials- investment bankers that have now disappeared from view- who themselves lacked an understanding of the social constraints of American and European democracies. It is that rancor that is now leading to China and the US disconnecting the supply chains leading to questions one is certain within China about how this will affect unemployment in China in the years to come. The pandemic simply accelerated this realization on both sides of this untenable situation. Still a trillion dollars in exports are taking place even as the political situation is now totally adrift -as the situation in Taiwan in August 2022 shows- the political and trading relationships at opposite ends and seemingly at war with each other. ...

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This self portrait by Vladimir Putin about his growing up years in Leningrad and the life of his father and mother during the siege of Leningrad by Germans may offer a better sense of the mind and thinking of the Russian president than the Dresden years when he was a junior Russian official in Communist East Germany (the GDR). It is an interview of the Russian president in 2000 by Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalya Timakova, and Andrei Kolesnikov over twenty years back. Putin's father suffered severe injuries during the war in the fighting around Leningrad, twice being given up for dead and being dragged wounded across the frozen Neva river to a hospital by a neighbor. His mother was half dead from starvation and his father passed on his food given to him at the hospital. Having gone through the memories of this period affected Vladimir Putin's view of the world and no amount of US or German assurance about NATO's intentions may have erased these memories from childhood. The long period in power and the Covid isolation may have led to  perceptions that were less likely to change so that Putin did his own research and wrote a long paper on Ukraine in 2021 that reflected Russia and Ukraine's long history but did not reflect the changing national aspirations of Ukraine's people in 2022. This may have led to the miscalculation and the errors by both Putin and the leaders Merkel-Bush-Obama that the detailed WSJ report of 20 years of events show to have happened. The WSJ report of April 1, 2022, was titled "Vladimir Putin's 20 Year March to War in Ukraine and How the West Mishandled It." The Social Democrats in Germany under Schroeder and Steinmeier mishandled it by deepening economic integration with Russia as a way to make up for what had happened in the German invasion of Russia, and the Christian Democrats under Merkel with business interests never really grasped the different thinking of the Russian president relying solely on deep economic integration of the EU and Germany with Russia as well as China as an answer. Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama from a distance even less so.  This has led to the miscalculation by Russia under Putin leading to invasion of Ukraine, and the US and Germany being unprepared about taking action to prevent it.  Beyond the key participants and the war damage, there is the enormous damage that is taking place in the mental health around the world after Covid with constant barrage of images of war and refugees streaming into Poland. There is the problem of food imports, of food scarcity in the Middle East, and inflation in food prices for Africa and the Middle East. As Brendan Simms, a Cambridge historian has shown in his book "Europe The Struggle of Supremacy 1453 to the Present," which is now being read by German chancellor Scholz, this has happened before with the UK, Netherlands, Spain, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia engaging in these conflicts that led to prolonged wars and eventually to only small shifts in power. Yet with huge effects for ordinary people caught in the wars such as today's refugees and people struggling to feed their families in Africa and Asia after the effects of Covid on income. Food prices have gone up by 50% to almost double in these countries.   ...

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According to analysts Yahoo's 24% stake in Alibaba and its stake in Yahoo Japan is what gives its share price momentum. U.S. Yahoo operations are estimated by Topeka Capital Markets to provide only about $10 of Yahoo's value per share. Alibaba's operations as a retailer in China account for $30 of the value per share, and Yahoo Japan $7 per share in value. Yahoo's current share price in Jan 214 is $40, having doubled in the past year. Analysts say there is not much CEO Marissa Mayer can do to reverse the slow decline in Yahoo revenues as it competes with Google, Facebook and other competitors for premium display advertising.

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South Korea has tested about 300,000 people for coronavirus. About 20,000 can be tested daily for coronavirus through 40 drive thru locations. South Korea invented this method of testing. Another feature of the South Korean method is the tracking down of people who have come into contact with those testing positive for coronavirus. The South Korean government is able to do this because it can access the credit card and cell phone information of people in the country. This is possible through laws that were passed after the failures during a previous epidemic of MERs. The government then tracks down and isolates the people who came into contact with infected persons. This includes people who show no symptoms, an important aspect of the South Korean program which needs to be adopted in other countries once the production of test kits and testing is ramped up. The reason is that about 30% of people who tested positive in South Korea were not showing any symptoms but acted as silent carriers. This is similar to the figures for people in the Wuhan region of China. This testing capability is one of South Korea's key strengths, though Germany's Robert Koch Institute says it has a similar capability to test 160,000 people a week. The U.S. has tested about 30,000 people by comparison. The U.S. government is procuring 60,000 test kits under the Defense Production Act. South Korea also enforces social distancing though a $2500 fine and a 1 year prison sentence. Germany now has a 2500 euros fine in some states for curfew violations.  By comparison the fine in Britain is insignificant.  Another difference between China and South Korea with Germany and the rest of Europe, the U.S., is that in China and South Korea self-isolation is monitored, tightening the control over coronavirus spread at every turn.   ...

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The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....

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With some aspects of Marie Le Pen's programme possibly violating the French Constitution and some parts of the programme leading to France being forced to leave the European Union, what was not looked at carefully in the first round vote is now happening for the second round. The Le Pen draft law on "immigration, identity and citizenship," is seen by multiple analyses cited by The Guradian, as violating the principles of equality enshrined in the French Constitution. Constitutional experts say this would also violate European law and lead to a progressive or indirect exit from the European Union. Le Pen's proposal to lower the retirement age to 60 was coming under scathing scrutiny, with Jean Tirole, the 2014 Nobel prize winner in Economics saying it would cost 68 billion euros and "permanently impoverish the country." Countries such as Brazil that lowered the retirement age in this manner have found that it seriously affects public finances, leading to the deep economic crisis in Brazil following the commodity price collapse a few years ago. Macron has moved in the opposite direction to raise the retirement age gradually and now with a proposed national consensus, at the cost of losing some support, simply to shore up public finances. So that needed investments in infrastructure and climate change can be made. For this reason it may become evident to undecided voters that Le Pen's proposals have some serious flaws if implemented, weakening the French economy and yet not tackling the deeper problems of younger people. These problems The Guardian says in a separate report are the precarious and low pay jobs, asset based inequality, and rural urban regional differences developing as a result of the offshoring of manufacturing to China, and are common to Britain, France, Germany, and the US. These problems are beginning to be addressed after the lessons learned from the pandemic by western nations.   ...

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There is a mixed picture behind the drop in investment in new oil exploration. The IEA estimates that overall investment will be down 15-20% in 2009. The number of drilling rigs in use globally fell 32% in the year to April 2009, to 2055, according to Baker-Hughes, an oilfield services firm. In America the number of rigs in use is down by 50%, and OPEC countries are cancelling 35 big projects, according to the OPEC secretary general, Salem Al-Badri. Cambridge Energy Associates estimates that 5.5 million barrels a day of capacity additions may not take place in the next couple of years, which is a third of expected net increase by 2014. Examine this a bit more closely and you find that the oil majors despite lack of access to oil in inhospitable terrain or foreign countries, are still holding up well in investment. Exxon increased capital spending by 5% in the 1st quarter 2009, and Shell and Chevron plan to invest the same in 2009 as in 2008, $31 billion and $23 billion. BP plans to go from $21 billion to $20 billion. Canadian Tar Sands investments are being reevaluated in the light of prices, and smaller companies like Devon Energy are cutting back, for Devon from $9 billion in 2008 to $4 billion in 2009. From the national oil companies the investments are holding up in Saudi Arabia, whereas they are faltering in Russia and cash strapped Venezuela. Saudi Aramco recently completed a 5 year project increasing capacity from 10m b/d to 12.5 b/d at cost of $70 billion. And another $60 billion is set aside for more investments which will be less vigorously pursued as Saudis have 4.5m b/d of idle capacity after production cutbacks by OPEC. Petrobras plans to increase its investment by 55% to $174 billion in the next 5 years in offshore discoveries challenged by deep waters and thick layers of salt. The oilfield services companies like Schlumberger are cutting back, with Schlumberger cutting investment in 2009 by 13% to $2.6 billion and shedding 5000 jobs. Baker Hughes shed 3000 jobs. Mature fields are also receiving less investment, so that the drop from mature fields will be 9.4% according to IEA instead of 7.7% projected earlier with larger investments. The picture described above shows investments by the Saudis, the majors, oil field services firms, investments in recovery improvements in mature fields, not in a precipitious decline. The picture is of cautious and careful investment and some pullbacks as the economies of the US suffered decline in GDP of 6% in the 1st quarter 2009 over prior year and the German and Japanese economies suffered decline of 15-16%. Even the most optimistic forecasts for China do not go above 8% for 2009. In the light of these growth estimates the moderate drop in investments in new oil exploration may match the moderation in growth in Asia and the drop in growth in the USA and Europe and Japan. The forecasts of steeply higher oil prices or spikes like those in 2007-2008 are based on the notion of a quick economic recovery. See the links to economic recovery on this. These links suggest that the current surge may not last as the basics for a recovery are weak. In the US foreclosures, toxic assets, housing, consumption and savings, and unemployment all indicate a weak economy for several years down the road. And it is this weakness that the oil investment exploration budgets may be responding to in amoderated manner. The latest sign of this weakness is the spread of foreclosures to prime borrowers with job losses, link NYT May 24, 2009. The Saudi king thinks that $75 is a fair price for oil. Current prices have taken oil to $60 a barrel, even as inventories remain strong with over 60 days of supply. No spikes like those in the past are realistic in this economic environment....

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German president Scholz visits Japan with 6 members of his cabinet. He will hold the inaugural session of intergovernmental consultations the two countries plan to hold every year. Japan is keen to understand the German position on relations with China. Prof. Shigemura of Waseda University says prime minister Kishida want to get a first hand understanding of Germany's policy towards China and on the Ukraine situation. Shigemura says Japan is deeply worried that Germany and other countries still want to cooperate with China, despite the problems seen in the Indo-Pacific region. Germany is seen as not having taken the steps to change its economic relations with China after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has not drawn criticism from China.

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In China since 1981 the poorest people making below $1.25 a day fell to 207 million in 2005 from 835 million in 1981. In India the number of people below $1.25 a day increased to 455 million in 2005 from 420 million people in 1981. The share of the people in poverty fell to 42 percent from 60 percent during the same period. Corresponding figures for East Asia including China show a drop from 80% of the people in poverty in 1981 dropping to 18% in 2005. The proportion of people living below the $1.25 a day poverty line worldwide fell over the nerarly 25 year period from 1981 to 2005 from 52% in 1981 to 26% in 2005. In subSaharan Africa, now the poorest region half or 50% of the people live under the poverty line of $1.25 a day in 2005 almost where it was in 1981. In absolute numbers the region had 380 million people living below the poverty line in 2005 compared to 200 million people in 1981. Note that the World Bank this year changed the poverty line from $1 to $1.25 a day, to make allowance for the inflation that is hitting the poorer countries. Is China a rich nation after the Olympics? Some parts of China, the coastal regions and the regions around big cities like Shanghai and Beijing are relatively affluent with pockets of poorer people but in the rest of the country there is poverty as defined perhaps in terms of deep poverty, poverty, poor middle class without health insurance or any kind of savings for emergencies. With 200 million people in 2005 below the poverty line a question could be asked how many people in China below say $2.00 a day which could be seen as being poor at a time when inflation in food and fuel costs has been significant in developing countries. If its somewhere in the range of 300 and 400 million people in China this explains why in relative terms China would identify with India and the rest of the developing countries and it also explains its stand in the WTO trade talks acting as a developing country protecting the rights of agriculture and farmers within China. And it also explains the reasons why China sees a long transition before it ceases to be a poor developing country and why there is real concern that these 300-400 million people as well as others adversely affected by the rapid industrialization and exercize of state authority, corruption and increasing gaps between rich and poor, adverse effects on environment, that these people adversely affected are listened to and accomodated in the interests of stable progress and fairness. Much of recent history has shown that countries open to foreign trade have done better given the right conditions and careful policy measures. China opened up around 1981, and India around 1991. Also progress and gains are more significant in infrastructure building and in poverty reduction in the latter phases of development as the synergies increase, capital pool increases, and the development accelerates, this shows why China's gains look significant compared to India's at this point in time. In ten years or fifteen years a better assessment could be made and then some points may favor China and some India, and the results will be a result of different history, experiences and problems faced and routes taken because of prior developments in each region and varying complexity. ...

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In his comments at the Congressional Institute DJT says his tariffs plan resulted in China cancelling building the largest automobile plant in the world just across the US border in Mexico to export these cars to the US. That plant was planned for a capacity of 1 million cars a year which would have hit the US auto industry hard. DJT's  tells this story of how his tariffs are making a difference in not letting other countries take advantage of the US and destroy America's industry and communities, and jobs. "In Mexico they are going to build the largest auto plant in the world. It was during my campaign. And a great gentleman who builds auto plants was building this factory and I asked how is it going? I want to take a look at one of your factories you are building. One of the good ones. Are you ready? This was 8 months ago. I said you will have to go to Mexico. What about the US? He said  we are putting up a couple but they are small. In Mexico they are building massive automobile factories. I said you mean they are doing it? Who is the owner. He said mostly China. One in particular is massive. So they are going to build cars and send them to the US, for no tax or little tax, and destroy whats left of Detroit." "Mexico has taken 32% of business over 30 years. The other is Canada. They send us millions of cars. We don't need them for that. I said to hime when is this going to open. A couple of months. It will openin 1.5 years. I said I am not happy about that. And I said in my next speech I'm going to charge them. No cars coming ino the United States from Mexico without a massive tariff. I said it 3 or 4 times and what happened is about 2 months later I saw the same gentleman in the audience and I said I want to see you backstage. I said let me ask you what happened to that plant. Where is it now? He said China has canceled it. Why? Because they think you are going to be elected and charge tariffs on the cars coming in and it doesn't work."  "So Detroit will breathe and we are going to do the opposite. Companies can build plants if they want but they are going to have to build it in the United States."   ...

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In the third fiscal quarter ending June 28, 2014, Apple sold 35.2 million iPhones, up 13% from the year ago quarter. Profit reported was $7.75 billion for the quarter, up from $6.9 billion in the prior year quarter. Revenue increased to $37.43 billion from $35.32 billion the prior year quarter. Apple is not experiencing the weakness in smartphone sales that Samsung is seeing. The strong sales comes with increasing sales in China following the distribution deal with China Mobile. iPad sales slowed with sales declining to 13.3 million iPads in the quarter, down 9% from the prior year quarter. While Samsung has difficulty in preventing lower cost competitors such as Xiaomi and Huawei from eroding sales in China Apple sales are increasing. Apple's revenue in China increased by 28% for the quarter. China is a western brand conscious market as seen in sales of U.S. and German made automobiles. Another trend Apple is capitalizing on is the sale of larger screen iPhones. Screens larger than 5 inches make up 20% of iPhones shipped in China, according to IDC, which are estimated to go up to 50% by 2017....

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During the years 2002-2008 the growth in doctors per thousand people at about 1.5, and hospital or clinic beds per thousand people at 3, are essentially flat. See graph. Figures from China's Ministry of Health. Now the State Council, China's cabinet is giving details on a $120 billion plus initial phase of a revamp of the country's health care system. Its a big step for China. A construction surge by 2011 is to give every village a medical clinic, and every county at least one hospital. Under this plan state subsidies for insurance premiums will aim at giving at least basic coverage to 90% or more of China's 1.3 billion people. For 30 years since China moved to a more capitalistic type system health care costs have been borne by the people, and these cost made access to health care difficult for a large number of people. These are steps to rebuild the social safety net in China in this crisis.

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President Trump says the U.S. could permanently cut off funding to the WHO and revoke U.S. membership if the group does not make changes in the way it operates showing a lack of transparency in its operations and dependence on China. Mr. Trump says the WHO has shown "alarming lack of independence" from Beijing. In a direct letter to the Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus -"it is clear the missteps by you and your organization in responding to the pandemic have been extremely costly to the world." Mr. Trump gave the WHO 30 days to make "major substantive improvements" or he would cut funding and reevaluate U.S. membership. Mr. Trump said in the letter that the WHO ignored early reports of the virus spreading in Wuhan, failed to share information with other countries. The U.S. which has the largest contribution by far to the WHO was unable to influence the organization. The U.S. has influence in finance at the IMF, the World Bank, and in the tech world, yet this did not extend to important matters of public health. It could be that public health had become an afterthought in the rush to prominence in tech and finance. The contributions of the U.S. exceed anything any other country has made. During the 2 years 2018 and 2019 the U.S. contributed $893 million, according to WHO records, cited in the WSJ. During this period the contribution of China was $86 million with an additional $50 million added recently. The $2 billion Mr. Xi said China will contribute is incorrectly reported as for the WHO, it is what China says it will use to support Africa and other countries in the world to fight the pandemic. ...

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Better management of the economy has sustained Russian economic growth in past crises such as in 2008 when oil prices collapsed. Russian central bank chief Nabiullina has helped steer the economy holding US dollar reserves to just 11% the rest of $600 billion reserves in renminbi, euros and gold. Yet the war in Ukraine has introduced limits. With labor shortages and the technological isolation the war in Ukraine is setting new limits on economic growth, says the WSJ. Going forward the limit is about 0.9% economic growth a year. Before 2008 the Russian economy growth was at 7% growth a year, it dropped to 3.5% after the invasion of Crimea in 2014. With China facing deflationary trends, little recovery in growth, this shows that geopolitical tensions are changing the prospects of important economies. With globalization dimming the prospects of Singapore and UK have suffered. The US is investing in growth, and Germany is following the US model.

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Ed Finn, president of Barron's for 19 years from 1998 has observed the economy for decades and comes to the conclusion that the 2007-2008 banking crisis from Reagan style deregulation was the one principal factor the US economy and the people suffered from a lost decade that was extended to 15 years by the pandemic. This has ended under president Biden says Finn, with he says about 10% growth in S&P 500 every year since 2020 and expects growth at that rate for another 4 years under president Biden. What this says about ultra low interest rates is that it was bad for America and a result of the need for tackling the 2009 financial crisis. Interest rates need to be at the moderate level of about 4-5%, the level today, where savers are rewarded, retirees are rewarded, bondholders are rewarded, and excessive risk taking is penalized, says Finn. Moderate interest rates help mortgage holders and new companies start businesses. In short says Finn- this is the way a economy should be run. We were sold the idea of ultra low interest rates because no one wanted to talk about the bad effects of Reagan style deregulation that inevitably lead to lack of the financial oversight of regulatory authorites. Financial oversight by regulatory authorites needed for modern economies to run, whether this is the US, India, China, or any large European economy, it is an essential condition for stable long term growth that serves the needs of the people of every major economy in the world. The idea must be cast aside that economic policy must be determined by the swings in sentiment  every few decades in one direction to too little government from to too much government or reverse, and be determined by essential truths of how a sound and good economy is run. As the US enters 2024 what Powell a Republican, and Biden a Democrat, and the bipartisan group of Senators in the US Congress are saying is that we get it, and are with single minded determination making it happen. ...

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Looking back Mohandas Gandhi's effort to prevent separate electorates was an important contribution to today's rapid industrial development and modernization of India. Delivery of infrastructure, education, healthcare and other improvements could not have been delivered as they are today with weak governments. Gandhi understood clearly the effects of divide and rule and how this had led to over one hundred years of disinvestment in India by 1900. Even after 1950 it took another 70 years for governments to follow the experience of Japan and China and rapidly modernize. Separate electorates as suggested by Ambedkar for lower castes would only further weaken India, as would communal representation of that type. Not integrating the one third of India that was under princely states would have had the same effect. Sardar Patel grasped clearly the effects of not integrating these princely states would continue the effects of divide and rule. In this way the foresight and wisdom of Gandhi and Patel have given a new generation of leaders the sound fundamentals on which to build a modernized nation, the largest democracy, and a nation with a young population that is fulfilling the aspirations of its young people. ...

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This report from Brazil is of major relevance to India in its growth efforts, and for aging societies such as China. In many ways showing the price countries and the people pay when growth is mismanaged. A major crisis is hitting countries such as Brazil as fewer young people and young workers support an aging population of retirees. This is to be seen in the money allocated in Brazil's budget- only 3% goes to infrastructure, 3% to education, health gets 7%, and retirement system takes up as much as 43% of the budget. Increasing retirement obligations are nearly bankrupting the Rio de Janeiro state government.  At the core of this crisis is a steadily aging population that is happening now faster than in the developed world. Also part of this is the fact that fertility rates have dropped rapidly in Brazil, the rest of Latin America, and in China. It took just 27 years in Brazil and 11 years in China for fertility rates to drop from 6 to below 3, creating a situation where there are fewer young people to join the workforce as retirees live longer and the retired population increases. This report shows that it took 82 years for the fertility rates to drop from 6 to 2 in the U.S. so that the U.S. had a longer period in which to build up infrastructure.  Only 50% of Brazil's sewage is treated, and sanitation systems need investment. The average adult has about 8 years of schooling. An unfunded and unfundable social security system means infrastructure, health and public services such as transportation will remain unfunded for years to come. China's policymakers have done far better by building infrastructure rapidly yet face the same squeeze of aging population lower fertility rates as China's modernization continues. India needs to learn from such failures and successes in framing its own policies. Unrealistic giveaways or promises such as Brazil's retirement age of 55 and poor priorities of soccer stadiums in the northeast over sanitation, health, education, have a steep price. Good intentions are not enough as the Workers Party in Brazil granted pensions to farmers and informal workers without generating the sustained growth needed for funding the pension system, with $3 billion paid in and $36 going out for this added benefit.    ...

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Bank lending is strong in China with increased lending at levels close to 20%, the level reached in prior years.